Where have all the flowers gone? Forecasting green trends in the automobile industry with a choice-based conjoint adoption model

With rising gas prices, global warming, and green thinking, all-electric vehicles are currently considered the automobile technology of the future. However, besides their advantages electric drive trains also exhibit several disadvantages. Moreover, history shows several failed attempts to establish electric vehicles. Thus, a reliable forecasting model is needed that predicts if the current trend is sustainable. We develop and empirically test a choice-based conjoint adoption model that uses individual-level preferences as a basis for prediction. Predictions are mapped to the time of the next planned purchase in order to establish the adoption process. The model extends existing research in several ways. First, no prior information, e.g., historical market data or a functional form of the adoption process, has to be integrated. Second, the model allows dynamic modifications of product specifications or competition at different points in time. Third, a no-choice option can be integrated so that a technology switch is not forced by the model itself and switching costs can be considered. The empirical results reveal different critical factors for the adoption of all-electric vehicles, such as purchase price, range, timing of the market entry, or environmental evolution, which could lead to a solid base of consumers preferring this option.     

A study on the relationship between technology diffusion and new product diffusion

This study investigates the relationship between “technology diffusion” and “new product diffusion”. We define “technology diffusion” as a knowledge spillover process, which is represented by patent citation, and “new product diffusion” as the spread of a new product that has been developed by the application of patented technology. To investigate the relationship between the two types of diffusion, we use patent citation data of code division multiple access (CDMA) technology and market sales data of mobile phones in South Korea for the analysis. The results show that the diffusion of technology through patent citation could be successfully explained by empirical analysis, for which the Bass diffusion model was used. Moreover, we can find out if technology diffusion can be the leading indicator of a new product's diffusion before its launching; in other words, before the commercialization of the patent.     

Forecasting with limited data: Combining ARIMA and diffusion models

Forecasting diffusion of new technologies is usually performed by the means of aggregate diffusion models, which tend to monopolize this area of research and practice, making the alternative approaches, like the Box-Jenkins, less favourable choices due to their lack of providing accurate long-term predictions. This paper presents a new methodology focusing on the improvement of the short-term prediction that combines the advantages of both approaches and that can be applied in the early stages of a diffusion process. An application of the methodology is also illustrated, providing short-term forecasts for the world broadband and mobile telecommunications' penetration. The results reveal that the methodology is capable of producing improved one-year-ahead predictions, after a certain level of penetration, as compared to the results of both methods individually. This methodology can find applications to all cases of the high-technology market, where a diffusion model is usually used for obtaining future forecasts. The paper concludes with the limitations of the methodology, the discussion on the application's results and the proposals for further research.     

A conjoint analysis of farmer preferences for community forestry contracts in the Sumber Jaya Watershed, Indonesia

A wide range of policy instruments have been devised and applied to support the goals of sustainable forestry management. Community forestry programs can contain elements of several of those instruments. This paper considers the design of community forestry contracts in the Sumber Jaya area of Indonesia where community forestry contracts are agreements between the Forestry Department and community groups that provide group members with time-bound leasehold rights to protection forests, on the condition that farmers abide by specified land-use restrictions and pay any required fees. Farmers perceive that the contracts represent a bundle of restrictions and inducements, some of which are explicitly stated in the contract and others that are implied by the contract. Conjoint analysis was used to quantify farmers' tradeoffs among the explicit and implicit attributes of the contracts. The results of logit and ordered logit models show that farmers are most concerned about the length of the contract, and relatively unconcerned about requirements on tree density and species composition. An implicit attribute, greater access to forestry and agroforestry extension, emerges as an important implicit attribute. The results imply that farmers in this part of Indonesia would be willing to abide by fairly strict limitations on land use, provided that they can be assured of long-term rights to the planted trees.     

Analysing diffusion pattern of mobile application services in Korea using the competitive Bass model and Herfindahl index

Mobile service has been totally revolutionizing the service industry with the explosive growth in mobile application (‘app’) services. With the rapid proliferation of mobile app service, there is still a constant need for the research focusing on the precise and scientific prediction of the diffusion of mobile app service with consideration of competitive relationships. However, most of the relevant research dealing with diffusion did not consider the competition effect among mobile app services. In addition, in mobile app services, big competitors, which have a larger marketing share in same category, can interrupt the diffusion of other mobile app services significantly. Thus, the level of competitiveness also should be considered for more precise prediction of mobile app service. Accordingly, the present study proposes a new approach to analyse the degree of competitiveness of mobile app service categories using Herfindahl–Hirschman index and classify mobile app service categories. Then, this study systematically analyses their respective diffusion patterns based on the given empirical data using competitive Bass model. A case of Korean mobile service industry is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.     

Conjoint and WTP analyses of future mobile phones for digital convergence

Digital convergence for mobile phones is a hot issue. This study considers future development of mobile phones with a view toward consumers' usage and the amount they are willing to pay. In order to select preferable convergence technology, we utilize convergence concepts such as absorption, blending, and combination. The result of conjoint analysis shows that a preference for convergence technology will involve computing, media, navigation, and imaging. However, only the computing attribute increases consumers' willingness to pay. Our study results contribute to product planning and commercialization of innovative mobile phones.     

Performance assessment for electronic manufacturing service providers using two-stage super-efficiency SBM model

Manufacturing Service providers (EMSs) offer services to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). However, increasing challenges require an EMS to be more capable, adaptable and responsive. For survival, an EMS manager has to understand its relative efficiency in the industry. In addition, an investor also requires such information for investments. In this research, we propose a novel approach, which combines GM(1,1) with a two-stage super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model, to forecast and assess the efficiencies of 18 EMSs. The GM(1,1) was first used to forecast future data of EMSs, and then the two-stage super-efficiency SBM model was used to measure the marketability and profitability efficiencies for an EMU in two stages. The results build a ‘past-current-future’ view on the two efficiencies for each EMS. In addition, the profitability efficiency can help justify the reasonability of marketability efficiency. Our results showed that Hon Hai tops the rankings in both profitability and marketability efficiencies. These results also provided information about relative efficiencies of these EMSs, which helps EMS managers and investors to make better decisions.     

Combined forecast process: Combining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model

Forecasts can be improved by combining separate forecasts obtained by different methods. The complementary nature of the scenario analysis and technological substitution models means that combining the two can obtain improved forecasts. The former has the strength of dealing with the uncertain future, while the later offers data-based forecasts of quantifiable parameters. This study thus proposes a process for combining the scenario analysis with the technological substitution model for discussing new generation technological developments. The proposed process not only has the strengths of scenario analysis, but also contains features that scenario analysis lacks, including predicting annual developments for future years, considering old technology development, and forecasting substitution of old technologies. This study uses the forecast of the market share of Fiber to the x in Taiwan over the next ten years as an example illustrating the proposed combined forecast process.     

Cost analysis of plasma-derived factor VIII/von Willebrand factor versus recombinant factor VIII for treatment of previously untreated patients with severe hemophilia A in the United States

Background: Inhibitor development to factor VIII (FVIII) hemophilia therapy results in increased complications and substantial economic costs. The SIPPET study, the first randomized controlled trial to compare the immunogenicity of plasma-derived FVIII (pdFVIII)/von Willebrand factor (VWF) and recombinant-DNA-derived FVIII (rFVIII), demonstrated higher inhibitor rates in previously untreated patients (PUPs) treated with rFVIII than in PUPs treated with pdFVIII/VWF.

Objective: To quantify the economic impact of treating PUPs with pdFVIII/VWF vs rFVIII.

Methods: An Excel-based clinical and economic model was developed from a US healthcare payer perspective and run over a 5-year period. The analysis utilized a cohort approach to model patient treatment and outcomes over a monthly cycle to quantify differences in costs of FVIII, bypassing agents, and hospitalizations for serious bleeds. Rates of high-titer inhibitor development were obtained from the SIPPET study. Patients developing high-titer inhibitors were treated with immune tolerance induction (ITI). Patients who developed low-titer inhibitors and those who did not develop inhibitors continued their usual FVIII treatment. Patients who were successfully treated with ITI returned to FVIII treatment, while unsuccessfully treated patients received bypassing agents. Total costs per treated patient were estimated and a one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify the impact of parameter uncertainty on the model outcomes.

Results: Total cumulative costs per patient over 5 years were $834,621 for pdFVIII/VWF patients and $1,237,163 for rFVIII patients, representing a total saving of $402,542 per patient over the 5-year period, for an average annual saving of $80,508 per patient.

Conclusions: Based on data from the SIPPET study, this analysis found that initiating FVIII treatment in severe hemophilia A PUPs with pdFVIII/VWF has the potential to offer substantial cost savings to healthcare payers, amounting to a one-third reduction in costs.