Stock price synchronicity and analyst coverage in emerging markets

This paper examines the relation between the stock price synchronicity and analyst activity in emerging markets. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that security analysts specialize in the production of firm-specific information, we find that securities which are covered by more analysts incorporate greater (lesser) market-wide (firm-specific) information. Using the R² statistics of the market model as a measure of synchronicity of stock price movement, we find that greater analyst coverage increases stock price synchronicity. Furthermore, after controlling for the influence of firm size on the lead–lag relation, we find that the returns of high analyst-following portfolio lead returns of low analyst-following portfolio more than vice versa. We also find that the aggregate change in the earnings forecasts in a high analyst-following portfolio affects the aggregate returns of the portfolio itself as well as those of the low analyst-following portfolio, whereas the aggregate change in the earnings forecasts of the low analyst-following portfolio have no predictive ability. Finally, when the forecast dispersion is high, the effect of analyst coverage on stock price synchronicity is reduced.     

Opaque financial reports, R, and crash risk

We investigate the relation between the transparency of financial statements and the distribution of stock returns. Using earnings management as a measure of opacity, we find that opacity is associated with higher R²s, indicating less revelation of firm-specific information. Moreover, opaque firms are more prone to stock price crashes, consistent with the prediction of the Jin and Myers [2006. R² around the world: new theory and new tests. Journal of Financial Economics 79, 257–292] model. However, these relations seem to have dissipated since the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, suggesting that earnings management has decreased or that firms can hide less information in the new regulatory environment.     

The predictability of aggregate returns on commodity futures

This paper provides evidence that aggregate returns on commodity futures (without the returns on collateral) are predictable, both in-sample and out-of-sample, by various lagged variables from the stock market, bond market, macroeconomics, and the commodity market. Out of the 32 candidate predictors we consider, we find that investor sentiment is the best in-sample predictor of short-horizon returns, whereas the level and slope of the yield curve have much in-sample predictive power for long-horizon returns. We find that it is possible to forecast aggregate returns on commodity futures out-of-sample through several combination forecasts (the out-of-sample return forecasting R² is up to 1.65% at the monthly frequency).     

Does PIN affect equity prices around the world?

This study examines the empirical controversy over the pricing effect of the Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O?Hara (2002) probability of information-based trading, PIN, on a sample of 30,095 firms from 47 countries worldwide. Contrary to the empirical evidence of Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O?Hara, but consistent with that of Duarte and Young (2009), we do not find that PIN exhibits a positive effect on a cross section of expected stock returns in international markets. Alternative information-based trading measures also display no effect on expected stock returns, corroborating our finding that information risk proxied by PIN, in general, has no pricing effect in world markets.     

Do star analysts know more firm-specific information? Evidence from China

Using a unique database in China, we extend the literature to further distinguish the information production role of star vs. non-star analysts. We confirm the general conclusion of a positive association between analyst coverage and stock return synchronicity measured by a firm’s R² in China. The findings from star analysts, however, show that star analyst coverage actually decreases stock return synchronicity. We contend that the firm-specific human capital in star analysts helps the analysts overcome the challenges of information production in an emerging market. The superior firm-specific human capital argument of star analysts is further supported by the negative association of star analysts’ firm-specific experiences and stock return synchronicity. Our conclusions are robust to different specifications of star analyst presence and different definitions of analysts’ firm-specific experiences. We also find that star analysts exhibit a more accurate earnings forecast than non-star analysts.     

Political geography and stock returns: The value and risk implications of proximity to political power

We show that political geography has a pervasive effect on the cross-section of stock returns. We collect election results over a 40-year period and use a political alignment index (PAI) of each state's leading politicians with the ruling (presidential) party to proxy for local firms’ proximity to political power. Firms whose headquarters are located in high PAI states outperform those located in low PAI states, both in terms of raw returns, and on a risk-adjusted basis. Overall, although we cannot rule out indirect political connectedness advantages as an explanation of the PAI effect, our results are consistent with the notion that proximity to political power has stock return implications because it reflects firms’ exposure to policy risk.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

We examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm-specific crash risk. Based on a large sample of Chinese listed firms over the period from 2000 to 2017, we provide empirical evidence that firms are more likely to experience stock price crashes when EPU increases. Cross-sectionally analysis further reveals that the impact of EPU on stock price crash risk is stronger for firms whose returns are more sensitive to EPU. More specifically, young stocks, small stocks, high volatility stocks, and growth stocks, which have higher valuation uncertainty per se, are more sensitive to EPU and are more affected by EPU in terms of crash risk. We further show that EPU is significantly and positively associated with aggregated stock price crash risk at the market level.     

Return windows and the value relevance of earnings

Research on the value relevance of annual earnings commonly accumulate stock returns over a 12-month period starting from the fourth month of the fiscal year, resulting in a mismatch between the return window and the earnings period (i.e. the fiscal year). By comparing this return window with alternative windows, we show that the mismatch produces a downward bias in the estimated R² from the regression of stock returns on earnings, especially for firms that announce earnings early. Our results also show that both profits and losses are more value relevant when announced earlier, supporting regulatory calls for timely disclosure.     

The impact of diverse measures of default risk on UK stock returns

A number of recent papers examine the relationship between default risk and equity returns, and the results are mixed. These studies employ different measures of default risk and we find that correlations between eight diverse measures of default risk tend to be less than 50%. Nonetheless, we find that the relationship between stock returns and diverse measures of default risk tends to be consistent; default risk is a significant determinant of stock returns and this relationship is “hump backed”, as predicted by Garlappi and Yan (2011).     

Do regulatory policies affect the flow of information in emerging markets?

In a previous paper we established that volatility is best explained by contemporaneous rather than lagged trading volume in the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX). The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of regulatory policies - namely the switch from price limit to circuit breaker - on the dynamic relationship between trading volume and stock returns volatility in the EGX. Using daily returns data for 20 actively traded companies as well as the EGX30 market index, the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), results show that the volume-volatility relationship is not only endogenous but is also structurally altered by the switch.     

Does Greater Firm‐Specific Return Variation Mean More or Less Informed Stock Pricing?

Roll [1988] observes low R² statistics for common asset pricing models due to vigorous firm‐specific return variation not associated with public information. He concludes that this implies “either private information or else occasional frenzy unrelated to concrete information”[p. 56]. We show that firms and industries with lower market model R² statistics exhibit higher association between current returns and future earnings, indicating more information about future earnings in current stock returns. This supports Roll's first interpretation: higher firm‐specific return variation as a fraction of total variation signals more information‐laden stock prices and, therefore, more efficient stock markets.     

Stock Volatility during the Recent Financial Crisis

This paper uses monthly returns from 1802 to 2010, daily returns from 1885 to 2010, and intraday returns from 1982 to 2010 in the USA to show how stock volatility has changed over time. It also uses various measures of volatility implied by option prices to infer what the market was expecting to happen in the months following the financial crisis in late 2008. This episode was associated with historically high levels of stock market volatility, particularly among financial sector stocks, but the market did not expect volatility to remain high for long and it did not. This is in sharp contrast to the prolonged periods of high volatility during the Great Depression. Similar analysis of stock volatility in the United Kingdom and Japan reinforces the notion that the volatility seen in the 2008 crisis was relatively short‐lived. While there is a link between stock volatility and real economic activity, such as unemployment rates, it can be misleading.     

Consumer expectations and short-horizon return predictability

Lettau and Ludvigson [Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S, 2001. Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns. Journal of Finance 56, 815–849] argue that fluctuations from the equilibrium ratio of consumption to wealth (cây) reflect changing expectations of asset returns and document significant short-horizon predictability based on cây. This paper further explores the role of consumer expectations in modeling time variation of expected equity returns by considering two measures of consumer expectations: (i) consumer behavior as reflected in cây, and (ii) a more-direct measure of expectations captured by the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS). We report strong regression-based evidence of return predictability based on cây, which remains evident even after accounting for various sources of estimation risk. However, the regression-based evidence of predictability does not necessarily imply that shifts in aggregate consumption and the components of aggregate wealth give rise to economically significant investment signals. The survey-based measure of expectations (ICS) is shown to complement the behavioral measure (cây) but has no apparent stand-alone predictive value in forecasting equity returns.     

Systematic risk and the cross section of hedge fund returns

This paper investigates the extent to which market risk, residual risk, and tail risk explain the cross-sectional dispersion in hedge fund returns. The paper introduces a comprehensive measure of systematic risk (SR) for individual hedge funds by breaking up total risk into systematic and fund-specific or residual risk components. Contrary to the popular understanding that hedge funds are market neutral, we find that systematic risk is a highly significant factor explaining the dispersion of cross-sectional returns while at the same time measures of residual risk and tail risk seem to have little explanatory power. Funds in the highest SR quintile generate 6% more average annual returns compared with funds in the lowest SR quintile. After controlling for a large set of fund characteristics and risk factors, systematic risk remains positive and highly significant, whereas the relation between residual risk and future fund returns continues to be insignificant. Hence, systematic risk is a powerful determinant of the cross-sectional differences in hedge fund returns.     

VOLUME AND R2: A FIRST LOOK

Roll (1988) reports that when days on which public announcements occur are excluded from a regression of stock returns on market returns, the R²s are largely unaffected. To explain his findings, Roll suggests that much of the firm-specific movements in common stocks may be a result of private information or occasional trading frenzy. As a test of Roll's conjecture, volume is used in this study as a proxy to capture the impact of firm-specific information and irrational trading. If Roll's conjecture is correct, the R² should rise when high-volume days are excluded from a regression of stock returns on market returns. The results presented here are consistent with that prediction, but they are not strong.     

Opaque financial reports and R2: Revisited

In this study, we revisit the link between R² (synchronicity) and earnings management (opacity) because of the importance of the ongoing debate on the relation between idiosyncratic risk and earnings management in the finance and accounting literatures. Hutton et al. (J. Financial Economics, 2009) provide evidence of a positive link between opacity and R². They interpret their finding to imply that firms with high R² (high synchronicity) have less firm-specific information impounded in their stock price. Our results for this relationship fail to unequivocally support the results reported in Hutton et al. (2009). We show that their results are not only time variant but also not robust to the alternative empirical technique recommended for panel data by Petersen (2009) and alternative estimation of discretionary accruals adjusted for firm performance prescribed by Kothari et al. (2005). We also find no support for a convex relation between idiosyncratic risk and opacity. The findings documented in this study substantially revise some of Hutton et al.'s findings in this important and growing area of research.     

Governance quality and privately negotiated stock repurchases: Evidence of agency conflict

This study examines the impact of shareholder rights on the wealth effects of privately negotiated stock repurchases. Our results show that wealth gains are lower when shareholder rights are more suppressed. We also find that the premium paid for shares is inversely related to the strength of shareholder rights, and this suggests that managers pay higher premiums when shareholder rights are more restricted. These findings imply that managers use shareholders’ funds to eliminate blockholders who are more likely to monitor them when shareholder rights are relatively weak, thereby entrench themselves. Consistent with this view, we further show that significant positive abnormal long-run returns after private stock repurchases are limited to firms with stronger shareholder protection. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the predictions of agency theory.     

Stock price synchronicity,crash risk,and institutional investors

Both stock price synchronicity and crash risk are negatively related to the firm's ownership by dedicated institutional investors, which have strong incentive to monitor due to their large stake holdings and long investment horizons. In contrast, the relations become positive for transient institutional investors as they tend to trade rather than monitor. These findings suggest that institutional monitoring limits managers' extraction of the firm's cash flows, which reduces the firm-specific risk absorbed by managers, thereby leading to a lower R². Moreover, institutional monitoring mitigates managerial bad-news hoarding, which results in a stock price crash when the accumulated bad news is finally released.     

Asset pricing and foreign exchange risk

According to the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), the covariance of assets with foreign exchange currency returns should be a risk factor that must be priced when the purchasing power parity is violated. The goal of this study is to re-examine the relationship between stock returns and foreign exchange risk. The novelties of this work are: (a) a data set that makes use of daily observations for the measurement of the foreign exchange exposure and volatility of the sample firms and (b) data from a Eurozone country.The methodology we make use in reference to the estimation of the sensitivity of each stock to exchange rate movements is that it allows regressing stock returns against factors controlling for market risk, size, value, momentum, foreign exchange exposure and foreign exchange volatility. Stocks are then classified according to their foreign exchange sensitivity portfolios and the return of a hedge (zero-investment) portfolio is calculated. Next, the abnormal returns of the hedge portfolio are regressed against the return of the factors. Finally, we construct a foreign exchange risk factor in such manner as to obtain a monotonic relation between foreign exchange risk and expected returns.The empirical findings show that the foreign exchange risk is priced in the cross section of the German stock returns over the period 2000-2008. Furthermore, they show that the relationship between returns and foreign exchange sensitivity is nonlinear, but it takes an inverse U-shape and that foreign exchange sensitivity is larger for small size firms and value stocks.     

IS THE BOOK‐TO‐MARKET RATIO A MEASURE OF RISK?

We develop a leverage‐based alternative to traditional asset pricing models to investigate whether the book‐to‐market ratio acts as a proxy for risk. We argue that the book‐to‐market ratio should act as a proxy because of the expected relations between (1) financial risk and measures of capital structure based on the market value of equity and (2) asset risk and measures of capital structure based on the book value of equity. We find no relation between average stock returns and the book‐to‐market ratio in all‐equity firms after controlling for firm size, and an inverse relation between average stock returns and the book‐to‐market ratio in firms with a negative book value of equity.