Stochastic optimal growth with a non-compact state space

This paper studies the stability of a stochastic optimal growth economy introduced by Brock and Mirman [Brock, W.A., Mirman, L., 1972. Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: the discounted case. Journal of Economic Theory 4, 479–513] by utilizing stochastic monotonicity in a dynamic system. The construction of two boundary distributions leads to a new method of studying systems with non-compact state space. The paper shows the existence of a unique invariant distribution. It also shows the equivalence between the stability and the uniqueness of the invariant distribution in this dynamic system.     

Stochastic growth with social-status concern: The existence of a unique stable distribution

This paper extends Kurz’s (1968) growth model to a stochastic growth framework with social-status concern and unbounded production shocks. Using the stochastic monotonicity of a stochastic dynamic system and the methods adopted in Zhang (2007), the existence, uniqueness, and stability of invariant distribution are investigated. Different from the existence of multiple steady states under certainty, it is shown here that there exists a unique stable invariant distribution under uncertainty.     

Special functions for the study of economic dynamics: The case of the Lucas-Uzawa model

The special functions are intensively used in mathematical physics to solve differential systems. We argue that they should be most useful in economic dynamics, notably in the assessment of the transition dynamics of endogenous economic growth models. We illustrate our argument on the famous Lucas-Uzawa model, which we solve by the means of Gaussian hypergeometric functions. We show how the use of Gaussian hypergeometric functions allows for an explicit representation of the equilibrium dynamics of all variables in level. The parameters of the involved hypergeometric functions are identified using the Pontryagin conditions arising from the underlying optimization problems. In contrast to the pre-existing approaches, our method is global and does not rely on dimension reduction.     

Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents

This paper analyzes traffic bottleneck congestion when drivers randomly cause incidents that temporarily block the bottleneck. Drivers have general scheduling preferences for time spent at home and at work. They independently choose morning departure times from home to maximize expected utility without knowing whether an incident has occurred. The resulting departure time pattern may be compressed or dispersed according to whether or not the bottleneck is fully utilized throughout the departure period on days without incidents. For both the user equilibrium (UE) and the social optimum (SO) the departure pattern changes from compressed to dispersed when the probability of an incident becomes sufficiently high. The SO can be decentralized with a time-varying toll, but drivers are likely to be strictly worse off than in the UE unless they benefit from the toll revenues in some way. A numerical example is presented for illustration. Finally, the model is extended to encompass minor incidents in which the bottleneck retains some capacity during an incident.     

Local and global indeterminacy in two-sector models of endogenous growth

We consider a two-sector endogenous growth model where the productions of the final good and human capital require economy-wide external effects. Assuming constant returns to scale at the private and social levels, we show that local and global indeterminacy of equilibrium paths are compatible with any values for the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and any sign for the capital intensity difference across the two sectors. We also show that for any value of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption, poverty traps may occur when the final good sector is capital intensive in human capital.     

Optimal strategies in linear multisector models: Value function and optimality conditions

In this paper we study an optimal control problem with mixed constraints related to a multisector linear model with endogenous growth. The main aim is to establish a set of necessary and a set of sufficient conditions which are the basis for studying the qualitative properties of optimal trajectories. The presence of possibly degenerate mixed constraints, the unboundedness and non-strict convexity of the Hamiltonian, make the problem difficult to deal with. We develop first the dynamic programming approach, proving that the value function is a bilateral viscosity solution to the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. Then, using our results, we give a set of sufficient and a set of necessary optimality conditions which involve so-called co-state inclusion: this can be interpreted as the existence of a dual path of prices supporting the optimal path.     

Existence of a competitive equilibrium in the Lucas (1988) model without physical capital

This paper considers an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation. It gives sufficient conditions and a necessary condition for the existence of a unique competitive equilibrium with externalities. These conditions are more stringent than those which prevail for the existence of an equilibrium defined as the solution to a fixed-point problem.     

Optimal investment models with vintage capital: Dynamic programming approach

The dynamic programming approach for a family of optimal investment models with vintage capital is here developed. The problem falls into the class of infinite horizon optimal control problems of PDE’s with age structure that have been studied in various papers (12, 11, 33 and 35) either in cases when explicit solutions can be found or using Maximum Principle techniques.     

Equivalence of utilitarian maximal and weakly maximal programs

For a class of aggregative optimal growth models, which allow for a non-convex and non-differentiable production technology, this paper examines whether the set of utilitarian maximal programs coincides with the set of weakly maximal programs. It identifies a condition, called the Phelps–Koopmans condition, under which the equivalence result holds. An example is provided to demonstrate that the equivalence result is invalid when the Phelps–Koopmans condition does not hold.     

Pareto improving interventions in a general equilibrium model with private provision of public goods

Most of the literature on government intervention in models of voluntary public goods supply focuses on interventions that increase the total level of a public good, which is considered to be typically underprovided. However, an intervention that is successful in increasing the public good level need not benefit everyone. In this paper we take a direct approach to welfare properties of voluntary provision equilibria in a full blown general equilibrium model with public goods and study interventions that have the goal of Pareto improving on the voluntary provision outcome. Towards this end, we study a model with many private goods and non-linear production technology for the public good, and hence allow for relative price effects to serve as a powerful channel of intervention. In this setup we show that Pareto improving interventions generally do exist. In particular, direct government provision financed by “small” , or “local” , lump-sum taxes can be used generically to Pareto improve upon the voluntary provision outcome.     

Voluntary contributions to multiple public goods in a production economy with widespread externalities

In a production economy, multiple public goods are produced by firms in competitive markets, and provided by the government together with contributions from consumers. There are widespread externalities: all consumers’ consumption and contributions and all firms’ production enter into utility functions. Public goods can be imperfect substitutes or complements, and they can be local public goods or club goods. Zero bounds that require consumers to make nonnegative contributions complicate the differentiable approach. Applying the transversality theorem for smooth economies in a regular parameterization, we obtain the existence of equilibrium in such an economy, and generically equilibria are regular and locally unique.     

Stochastic optimal growth with risky labor supply

Production takes time, and labor supply and profit maximization decisions that relate to current production are typically made before all shocks affecting that production have been realized. In this paper we re-examine the problem of stochastic optimal growth with aggregate risk where the timing of the model conforms to this information structure. We provide a set of conditions under which the economy has a unique, nontrivial and stable stationary distribution. In addition, we verify key optimality properties in the presence of unbounded shocks and rewards, and provide the sample path laws necessary for consistent estimation and simulation.     

Theorems on the core of an economy with infinitely many commodities and consumers

It is known that the classical theorems of Grodal [Grodal, B., 1972. A second remark on the core of an atomless economy. Econometrica 40, 581–583] and Schmeidler [Schmeidler, D., 1972. A remark on the core of an atomless economy. Econometrica 40, 579–580] on the veto power of small coalitions in finite dimensional, atomless economies can be extended (with some minor modifications) to include the case of countably many commodities. This paper presents a further extension of these results to include the case of uncountably many commodities. We also extend Vind’s [Vind, K., 1972. A third remark on the core of an atomless economy. Econometrica 40, 585–586] classical theorem on the veto power of big coalitions in finite dimensional, atomless economies to include the case of an arbitrary number of commodities. In another result, we show that in the coalitional economy defined by an atomless individualistic model, core–Walras equivalence holds even if the commodity space is non-separable. The above-mentioned results are also valid for a differential information economy with a finite state space. We also extend Kannai’s [Kannai, Y., 1970. Continuity properties of the core of a market. Econometrica 38, 791–815] theorem on the continuity of the core of a finite dimensional, large economy to include the case of an arbitrary number of commodities. All of our results are applications of a lemma, that we prove here, about the set of aggregate alternatives available to a coalition. Throughout the paper, the commodity space is assumed to be an ordered Banach space which has an interior point in its positive cone.     

Are Short‐lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long‐Lasting Jobs?*

This article assesses whether short‐lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long‐lasting jobs (enduring 1 year or more) for Belgian long‐term unemployed school‐leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi‐spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school‐leavers accepting a short‐lived job are, within 2 years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long‐lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short‐lived jobs.     

The Rise in Danish Unemployment: Reallocation or Mismatch?*

The two main competing theories for the outward shift in the uv‐curve are investigated: increased separations from employment at a given employment level (reallocation) and decreased levels of hires, given unemployment and vacancies (mismatch). Shifts in the unemployment–vacancy (uv)‐curve and the hiring function are modelled by smooth transition functions, and the hypothesis of analogous shifts in the two curves is tested and accepted. This is interpreted as evidence in favour of the mismatch hypotheses.     

Returns to specialization,competition, population,and growth

Using an expanding-variety endogenous growth model with purposive human capital accumulation, this paper provides an alternative explanation of why we may observe an ambiguous correlation between product market competition (PMC) and economic growth, and between population and economic growth rates. Our explanation is based on the notion of ‘returns to specialization’. Under the model's assumptions, PMC and economic growth are ambiguously correlated when returns to specialization are decreasing, whereas population growth and productivity growth are ambiguously correlated when returns to specialization are increasing. From a theoretical point of view, these results are explained by the presence or absence of an ‘increasing production-complexity’ effect associated to the use of a larger number of intermediate-input varieties in the same production process.     

Sustained endogenous growth with decreasing returns and heterogeneous capital

The possibility of sustained long-run growth is typically associated with the presence of some endogenous `engine of growth'. It may allow the economy to grow without bound despite the use of some non-reproducible resources. Such situations can lead to dynamic models combining the features of sustainable growth and decreasing returns. One-sector models of this kind have recently attracted much attention in macroeconomics applications. Their approximate linearity for the purposes of long-run analysis has been noted. This paper is aimed at establishing the general fact: dynamic models (one- or multi-sector) which are characterized by sustained endogenous growth with non-increasing returns display the patterns of optimal growth asymptotically equivalent to those generated by models with linear technology. I consider a neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous capital, develop its linear counterpart, and prove their asymptotic equivalence in terms of long-run optimal growth rates and cross-sectoral profiles of consumption, real interest rates and relative prices. This result also implies the `non-substitution' theorem for the neoclassical dynamic model of sustained growth: optimal input profiles, relative prices, and interest rates are asymptotically independent of intertemporal preferences.     

Stochastic optimal growth with bounded or unbounded utility and with bounded or unbounded shocks

This paper studies a one-sector stochastic optimal growth model with i.i.d. productivity shocks in which utility is allowed to be bounded or unbounded, the shocks are allowed to be bounded or unbounded, and the production function is not required to satisfy the Inada conditions at zero and infinity. Our main results are three-fold. First, we confirm the Euler equation as well as the existence of a continuous optimal policy function under a minimal set of assumptions. Second, we establish the existence of an invariant distribution under quite general assumptions. Third, we show that the density of optimal output converges to a unique invariant density independently of initial output under the assumption that the shock distribution has a density whose support is an interval, bounded or unbounded. In addition, we provide existence and stability results for general one-dimensional Markov processes.