Productivity and efficiency at bank holding companies in the U.S.: a time-varying heterogeneity approach

This paper investigates the productivity and efficiency of large bank holding companies (BHCs) in the United States over the period 2004–2013, by estimating a translog stochastic distance frontier (SDF) model with time-varying heterogeneity. The main feature of this model is that a multi-factor structure is used to disentangle time-varying unobserved heterogeneity from inefficiency. Our empirical results strongly suggest that unobserved heterogeneity is not only present in the U.S. banking industry, but also varies over time. Our results from the translog SDF model with time-varying heterogeneity show that the majority of large BHCs in the U.S. exhibit increasing returns to scale, a small percentage exhibit constant returns to scale, and an even smaller percentage exhibit decreasing returns to scale. Our results also show that on average the BHCs have experienced small positive or even negative technical change and productivity growth.     

The measurement of productive efficiency: A robust minimax approach

Some applied aspects of robustness are formulated and empirically tested so as to generalize the Farrell efficiency measure for the frontier production function. A minimax method is used to develop a Chebyshev efficiency measure along with a stochastic production frontier. The relative insensitivity of such a measure in respect of sample size variations and outliers are illustrated by an empirical application to educational production functions.     

The fundraising efficiency in U.S. non-profit art organizations: an application of a Bayesian estimation approach using the stochastic frontier production model

This article examines how efficient art organizations are in raising funds from private giving. We measure fundraising efficiency using a Bayesian estimation approach using the stochastic frontier production model. We show that fundraising efficiencies are generally quite low for art organizations in the U.S. when private giving is only considered as a fundraising output; however, when the effect of fundraising on ticket sales is considered, fundraising efficiencies improve substantially. We also show that government grants have a negative impact on fundraising efficiency and therefore partially crowd out private giving.     

Profit efficiency in U.S. BHCs: Effects of increasing non-traditional revenue sources

Using information multiple times across revenue streams, BHCs may increase efficiency due to economies of scope. Our main contribution is to be the first to examine noninterest income after passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, when additional opportunities to increase noninterest income arise. We examine profit efficiency and its relationship to noninterest income for BHCs using stochastic frontier analysis and multivariate analysis on BHC data from 2003 to 2006. Contrary to our hypothesis, the results indicate multi-noninterest income types are associated with decreased profit efficiency. These results are robust using the Efficiency Ratio as our measure and are particularly strong for small BHCs.     

Forecasting U.S. population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach

"The use of the Box-Jenkins approach for forecasting the population of the United States up to the year 2080 is discussed. It is shown that the Box-Jenkins approach is equivalent to a simple trend model when making long-range predictions for the United States. An investigation of forecasting accuracy indicates that the Box-Jenkins method produces population forecasts that are at least as reliable as those done with more traditional demographic methods."     

Forecasting the resurgence of the U.S. economy in 2010: An expert judgment approach

This paper describes a forecast, performed in December 2008, of the time of the recovery of the U.S. economy from the contraction that began in December 2007. As in two earlier papers, the forecast uses an expert judgment approach, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), within the framework of decision theory, as well as its generalization to dependence and feedback in the form of the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The findings of this paper are that the economy would begin its recovery in July-August, 2010. While forecasting is always hazardous, our 2001 paper successfully forecast the date the recovery began. Since 1920 the validating authority for the turnaround dates has traditionally been the widely recognized National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The Bureau usually releases an official statement with their finding many months after the event (and of course after the forecasts had been done). Our results on the month in which the recovery began in 2001 were confirmed by the NBER in July 2003. We will again await the NBER determination of the time of recovery from the current recession.     

An extreme value analysis of the last century crises across industries in the U.S. economy

The two large scale crises that hit the world economy in the last century, i.e. the Great Depression and the Great Recession, have similar outbreak and recovery patterns with respect to several macroeconomic variables. In particular, the largest depressions are likely to be accompanied by stock-market crashes. This study investigates the behavior of the U.S. stock market before, during and after deep downturns, focusing particularly on the tails of the return distribution. We develop two automatic procedures to identify multiple change-points in the tail of financial time series as well as in the co-crash and co-boom probabilities of different markets. We then apply our methodology to twelve time series representative of the sectors of the U.S. economy. We find that regime shifts in the lower tail of the distribution tend to co-occur before deep downturns. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the origin and systemic nature of large scale events to make policy interventions more timely and effective.     

Dusk for the pyramid-shaped bureaucracy: examining the shape of the U.S. federal bureaucracy in the twenty first century

The pyramid-shaped hierarchy was the most popular structure for the federal bureaucracy for most of the twentieth century. However, major management reform movements in the late twentieth century, such as new public management, reinventing government, and the national performance review, embrace the common theme of criticizing the traditional bureaucracy. If these efforts to fix the bureaucracy had achieved their anticipated results, the contemporary federal bureaucracy would have become a flattened-pyramid hierarchy with an increased span of control. The current article investigates the structure of the federal bureaucracy from the early 2000s to the present. The findings indicate that the federal bureaucracy is not pyramid shaped but instead is an inverse-calabash shape. In addition, little evidence was found of an increased span of control in the federal bureaucracy. In sum, the goal of the management reforms for changing the structure of the bureaucracy was not fulfilled.

     

The dynamics of efficiency and productivity growth in U.S. electric utilities

This study recognizes explicitly the efficiency gain or loss as a source in explaining the growth. A theoretically consistent method to estimate the decomposition of dynamic total factor productivity growth (TFP) in the presence of inefficiency is developed which is constructed from an extension of the dynamic TFP growth, adjusted for deviations from the long-run equilibrium within an adjustment-cost framework. The empirical case study is to U.S. electric utilities, which provides a measure to evaluate how different electric utilities participate in the deregulation of electricity generation. TFP grew by 2.26% per annum with growth attributed to the combined scale effects of 0.34%, the combined efficiency effects of 0.69%, and the technical change effect of 1.22%. The dynamic TFP grew by 1.66% per annum for electric utilities located within states with the deregulation plan and 3.30% per annum for those located outside. Electric utilities located within states with the deregulation plan increased the outputs by improving technical and input allocative efficiencies more than those located outside of states with deregulation plans.

The geographical efficiency of education and research: The ranking of U.S. universities

This paper proposes to study the American efficiency of educational diffusion and research productivity following two distinctions: urban vs. rural areas and public vs. private universities. Following this geographical consideration, knowledge diffusion seems to be homogeneous over the American territory, whereas research productivity is more heterogeneous: American research efficiency decreased of 7% points, due to some rural university localizations. Universities in urban areas favor educational quality through high student selection criteria, contrary to those located in more rural areas. Third, public universities present higher educational efficiency, in favoring educational quality over research productivity: the lesser research efficiency of public institutions comes from difficulties in the management of several campuses, by comparison with the private institutions which are all single-campus.     

A non-parametric investigation of supply side factors and healthcare efficiency in the U.S

Journal of Productivity Analysis - In this study, the supply-side factors affecting healthcare efficiency in the U.S are studied using data between 2010 and 2017. The recently developed...     

Technical inefficiency and productive decline in the U.S. interstate natural gas pipeline industry under the Natural Gas Policy Act

Firm-specific and temporal patterns of technical efficiency of the interstate natural gas transmission industry during the implementation of the Natural Gas Policy Act are estimated by two alternative methodologies. A new panel stochastic frontier systems estimator exploits the potential exogeneity of certain regressors from firm effects. This allows for heterogeneity in slopes, as well as in intercepts. Patterns of technical efficiency based on the structural stochastic model are compared with those based on deterministic programming methods, data envelopment analysis. Concordant findings based on these alternative methodologies suggest a perversive pattern of declining technical efficiency in the industry during the period of phased in well-head price deregulation.     

Examining irrigation productivity in U.S. agriculture using a single-factor approach

Journal of Productivity Analysis - Typical single-factor productivity measures are easy to grasp and to develop but are misleading because they ignore other inputs used in the production process....     

Mortgage default in an estimated model of the U.S. housing market

This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981–2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and spreads to the rest of the economy, creating a recession. In our model two shocks are well suited to replicate the subprime crisis and the Great Recession: the mortgage risk shock and the housing demand shock. Next we use our estimated model to evaluate a policy that reduces the principal of underwater mortgages. This policy is successful in stabilizing the mortgage market and makes all agents better off.     

A primal-dual approach to nonparametric productivity analysis: The case of U.S. agriculture

Nonparametric methods for measuring productivity indexes based on bounds for the underlying production technology are presented. Following Banker and Maindiratta, the lower bound is obtained from a primal approach while the upper bound corresponds to a dual approach to nonparametric production analysis. These nonparametric bounds are then used to estimate input-based and output-based distance functions. These radial measures provide the basis for measuring productivity indexes. Application to times series data on U.S. agriculture indicates a large gap between the primal lower bound and the dual upper bound. This generates striking differences between the primal and dual nonparametric productivity indexes.Respectively, professor and associate professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Seniority of authorship is equally shared. We would like to thank Rolf Färe and an anonymous reviewer for useful comments on an earlier draft of the paper. This research was supported in part by a Hatch grant from the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison.     

Joint Ventures in the U.S. Steel Industry:

A bstract . In 1958 Daniel Fusfeld examined the role of joint ventures in the U.S. steel industry and concluded that joint ventures served as a substitute for mergers forbidden by the Justice Department. Since the Fusfeld study, things have changed drastically for integrated domestic producers. Competition from imports and domestic mini- mills have forced steel firms into bankruptcies and missive plant closings. The contemporary industry's participation in joint ventures is examined in an attempt to understand steel's restructuring. Today's integrated producers jointly may hold tighter control over raw materials, participate in growing numbers of horizontal Joint ventures , and engage in numerous cooperative enterprises with foreign competitors, particularly the Japanese. Contemporary U.S. producers are becoming increasingly absorbed in the global economy.     

Externalities, efficiency, regulation, and productivity growth in the U.S. electric utility industry

This paper examines the decomposition of total factor productivity growth for firms subject to regulation, given the production of a bad output. The production of good and bad outputs provides benefits and costs to society. Corporate socially responsible firms recognize the cost to society of producing the bad output. The paper separates the production technology and regulation effects from both the scale and technical change components. The paper also examines the measurement and decomposition of productivity growth when not accounting for production of the bad output. Using a 1992–2000 panel of 34 U.S. investor-owned electric utilities, results indicate that improvements in the scale, efficiency change, and technical change components contributed to positive growth. Not accounting for production of the bad output led to, on average, an overestimation of both the rate of productivity growth, and the contributions of scale economies and technical change to changes in productivity growth.