不确定性条件下资本市场投资预期收益模型探析

在现实经济活动中特别是在资本市场投资中,人们对将来的情况很难准确地预测到,他们所知道的最多只不过是在未来各种各样的收益状况下所可能产生的结果.也就是说,未来经济活动特别是资本市场投资活动具有不确定性.由于不确定性的预期的作用和影响,在不确定性条件下的资本市场投资预期收益模型与在确定性条件下的收益模型存在着一定的偏差.只有减少人们对经济不确定性的预期,才能使资本市场投资需求旺盛.     

从科层制到扁平化--再论企业组织变革下心理契约的重建

企业组织结构扁平化是企业组织演进的一个必然趋势,扁平化既是对企业流程的再造,也是组织与员工心理契约的调整过程.心理契约与高水平的组织支持、职业期望和情感承诺及低水平的离职意向有关.企业扁平化条件下心理契约重建的过程是企业与员工之间的一种持续互动的调整过程,企业与员工同时扮演着主客体的双重身份,是基于对心理契约违背和破裂的感知的基础上,对心理契约的破裂要件进行修改和补偿的过程;重建的方向是由关系型契约向平衡型契约的转变;重建的方式主要有企业文化重塑、制度重新设计和注重沟通等三种途径.     

Free Entry under Uncertainty

When focusing on firm’s risk-aversion in industry equilibrium, the number of firms may be either larger or smaller when comparing market equilibrium with and without price uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce risk-averse firms under cost uncertainty in a model of spatial differentiation and show that the impact of uncertainty will increase the number of firms in an industry. With increased uncertainty, the risk premium of the marginal buyer increases by more than the risk premium of the average buyer, so that the price increases by more than the risk premium. When turning to the free entry game, we find that the market generates too many firms.     

新形势下文化体制改革的思考

党的十六大、十六届三中全会对发展社会主义先进文化做出了战略部署,明确提出了文化创新和文化体制改革的方针原则和目标任务,为解决制约文化事业和文化产业发展的深层次问题指明了方向。当前,深刻认识文化体制改革的战略意义,积极研究解决制约文化事业和文化产业发展的体制性障碍,打破各种制     

Optimal Intertemporal Consumption under Uncertainty

We analyze the optimal consumption program of an infinitely lived consumer who maximizes the discounted sum of utilities subject to a sequence of budget constraints where both the interest rate and his income are stochastic. We show that if the income and interest rate processes are sufficiently stochastic and the long run average rate of interest is greater than or equal to the discount rate, then consumption eventually grows without bound with probability one. We also establish conditions under which the borrowing constraints must be binding and examine how the income process affects the optimal consumption program. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: D91.     

英国布莱尔政府公共服务改革模式分析

英国布莱尔政府的公共服务改革模式有其自身特点,并在国际范围内产生了一定的影响。在近10年的执政期内,布莱尔政府形成了改革自我推进体系,主要包括四个方面的因素,即政府对公共服务自上而下的管理;引入市场竞争机制;使用者自下而上的反馈作用;落实改革措施的能力建设。本文认为,英国公共服务改革的这些做法和经验对我国有启示作用。     

International Environmental Agreements under Endogenous Uncertainty

This paper explores the implications of the possibility of a shift in environmental damages on the participation in environmental treaties. Using a two‐period model where the probability of a regime shift increases in the first‐period pollution stock, we examine the issue of coalition formation under both fixed and dynamic membership. Our analysis suggests that endogenous uncertainty may increase participation. We find that full cooperation may be sustained, but only in the presence of endogenous uncertainty. Interestingly, when the shift in the environmental damage is large enough, the model provides a way to solve the “puzzle of small coalitions” found in the literature related to international environmental agreements. We also find that in period 1 (period 2) endogenous uncertainty leads to a lower (higher) pollution stock under dynamic membership as compared to the fixed membership case.     

Investment under Uncertainty in Dynamic Conflicts

This paper analyses a model in which two groups repeatedly compete with each other for a prize in every time period. We assume that there is a status quo bias: if there is a fight today, yesterday's winner is in a stronger position than the other group. Hence, a change of the status quo has long-term consequences that groups need to take into account. Important applications of this model include lobbying for legislation and political transitions through revolutions. We analyse the strategic timing of attacks on the status quo, which is similar to investment decisions under uncertainty. We find that the attack threshold is considerably lower than in a comparable one-period game, and that the expenditure level necessary to change the status quo is low in comparison to the prize; this provides a possible solution to Tullock's "rent-seeking paradox" in lobbying.     

试论供应链中的不确定性

将供应链中的不确定性来源归为四种，对于每种来源，提出了相应的策略。     

On Price Caps Under Uncertainty

This paper shows how standard arguments supporting the imposition of price caps break down in the presence of demand uncertainty. In particular, though in the deterministic case the introduction or lowering of a price cap (above marginal cost) results in increased production, increased total welfare, decreased prices, and increased consumer welfare, we show that all of the above comparative statics predictions fail for generic uncertain demand functions. For example, for price caps sufficiently close to marginal cost, a decrease in the price cap always leads to a decrease in production and total welfare under certain mild conditions. Under stronger regularity assumptions, all of the monotone comparative statics predictions from the deterministic case also do not hold for a generic uncertain demand if we restrict attention to price caps in an arbitrary fixed interval (as long as the price caps are binding for some values in that interval).     

管理知识的不确定性研究

文章基于不确定性理论,对管理知识的具体形态进行考察。认为管理知识是来源于组织群体共同的意图和需求,管理知识是以理性的逻辑推理和经验的归纳结合在一起形成的。无论从管理知识的形态还是管理知识产生的来源来说,都是充满了不确定性。对管理知识的不确定性问题的考察,有利于我们发现管理知识的价值的有效性,有利于我们以更加符合管理活动本质的方式探寻管理。     

On Sustained Growth Under Uncertainty

We analyze a stochastic one‐sector model of economic growth and investigate the conditions under which long‐run growth occurs almost surely. In contrast to the deterministic version of the model, the utility function plays a crucial role in determining the long‐run behavior of output.     

On Endogenous Growth Under Uncertainty

This paper incorporates uncertainty in two distinct models of endogenous growth. In both models the representative agent is uncertain about the productivity of knowledge creation, as represented by a probability measure over the relevant parameter. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of risk or volatility in productivity of knowledge creation on the decision variables and the expected long-run growth rate. Both the first and the second models may explain part of the observed negative link between volatility and growth.     

Investment under Uncertainty, Debt and Taxes

It is common practice in financial derivative valuation to use a discount factor based on the riskless debt rate. But, to what extent is this discount factor appropriate for cash flows emerging in capital budgeting? To answer this question, we introduce a framework for real asset valuation that considers both personal and corporate taxation. We first discuss broad circumstances under which personal taxes do not affect valuation. We show that the appropriate discount rate for equity‐financed flows in a risk‐neutral setting is an equity rate that differs from the riskless debt rate by a tax wedge due to the presence of personal taxation. We extend this result to the valuation of the interest tax shield for exogenous debt policy with default risk. Interest tax shields, which accrue at a net rate corresponding to the difference between the corporate tax rate and a tax rate related to the personal tax rates, can have either positive or negative values. We also provide an illustrative real options application of our valuation approach to the case of an option to delay investment in a project, showing that the application of Black and Scholes formula may be incorrect in presence of personal taxes.     

Social Security Benefit Uncertainty under Individual Accounts

Social Security reforms that include individual accounts change both the expected benefit and the benefit risk. This article uses a long-term stochastic forecasting model to estimate the distribution of expected benefits under a simple individual account, recognizing uncertainties in the current system. Introducing individual accounts increases the overall variability of benefit levels relative to current law; indeed the standard deviations of expected benefit gains exceed the level of those gains. The increase in uncertainty about benefit replacement rates is even larger, however, because individual accounts partially sever the link between earnings and benefits in the existing system. (JEL H55)     

一种需求不确定下的多目标供应链设计研究

供应链结构是影响供应链运作的重要因素之一。在充分考虑需求不确定的情形下,基于对供应链多决策目标的分析,提出了运用主分量方法编制供应链多决策目标综合指数,进行供应链设计决策的方法,并通过算例说明了这种方法的特点以及与传统方法的区别。     

Oligopolistic Competition and New Technology Adoption under Uncertainty

The paper examines the adoption of a new technology in oligopoly, where there is ex ante uncertainty about variable costs of the new technology. Each firm can either adopt the new process by bearing some up-front investment or may continue to use the old one, after which firms play a Cournot market game. If in equilibrium both technologies are employed, more uncertainty about the new technology increases (decreases) the number of innovating firms and decreases (increases) the product price if the up-front investment is large (small). Our model applies readily to vertical integration if integrated firms neither buy nor sell the intermediate good on the market. However, if buying and selling is allowed, the number of integrated firms is independent of input price uncertainty.     

考虑不确定性的供应链战略绩效评价体系

在Chin-FuHo、Yen-PingChi和Yi-MingTai研究的基础上,将不确定性的具体衡量指标与供应链的绩效通过平衡记分卡结合起来,从财务价值、客户角度、供应流程、内部流程、未来发展性5个角度进行研究,构建了一个稳定高效的供应链绩效评价体系,并提出了相关参考指标。