Asymmetric loss in the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper examines the forecast rationality of the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) under asymmetric loss functions, using the method proposed by Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005) with a rolling window strategy. Over rolling periods, the degree and direction of the asymmetry in forecast loss functions are time-varying. While rationality under symmetric loss is often rejected, forecast rationality under asymmetric loss fails to be rejected over nearly all rolling periods. Besides, real output growth is consistently under-predicted in the 1990s, and the inflation rate is consistently over-predicted in the 1980s and 1990s. In general, inflation forecasts, especially for long horizons, exhibit greater levels of loss asymmetry in magnitude and frequency. The loss asymmetry of real output growth forecasts is more pronounced when the last revised vintage data are used than when the real-time vintage is used. All of these results hold for both the Greenbook and SPF forecasts. The results are also similar with the use of different sets of instrumental variables for estimating the asymmetric loss and testing for forecast rationality.     

Technical efficiency measures for dairy farms using panel data: A comparison of alternative model specifications

This article examines the impact of fixed effects production functions vis-à-vis stochastic production frontiers on technical efficiency measures. An unbalanced panel consisting of 96 Vermont dairy farmers for the 1971–1984 period was used in the analysis. The models examined incorporated both time-variant and time-invariant technical efficiency. The major source of variation in efficiency levels across models stemmed from the assumption made concerning the distribution of the one-sided term in the stochastic frontiers. In general, the fixed effects technique was found superior to the stochastic production frontier methodology. Despite the fact that the results of various statistical tests revealed the superiority of some specifications over others, the overall conclusion of the study is that the efficiency analysis was fairly consistent throughout all the models considered.     

The heterogeneous impact of taxation on economic development: New insights from a panel cointegration approach

In this paper, we study the role of taxation on long-run income performance. In the theoretical part of the study, we develop a stylized model based on Barro (1990), in which income taxation has two contradictory roles in the standard Solow (1956) setup: on the one hand, taxation appropriates resources that would otherwise be used for physical capital accumulation, and on the other, it is the source of government spending, which is used to support private production. In the empirical part of the study, the impact of consumption tax, personal income tax, corporate profit tax and property tax on income is estimated using the common correlated effects (CCE) panel cointegration approach, which allows for cross-sectional dependencies and provides both panel- and country-specific results. The panel findings for 30 OECD countries for the period of 1995–2016 indicate that only consumption tax has a statistically significant negative effect on long-run income. However, because the type and sign of the tax coefficients are heterogeneous for the country-specific results, we conclude that taxation has heterogeneous effects on income.     

Evaluating the success in international sourcing of information technology projects: The need for a relational client‐vendor approach

This article investigates the differences across and the need to consider both the client and vendor perspective in evaluating international sourcing (offshoring) success and highlights the need for incorporating relational factors into the success assessment rather than focusing solely on financial or operational outcomes (e.g., projects delivered on time, within budgeted costs). We take an expanded view of project success (using relational/process dimensions) and provide insight into how client and vendor firms evaluate success differently across relational dimensions and how relational factors play a key role in achieving success. Based on the findings, propositions are presented to guide future offshoring success research.