Impact of Consumer Installment Debt on Food Expenditures

Trends in consumer installment credit over the period 1980 to 1989 are discussed; as well, a two-equation recursive model is developed to identify and assess the impact of installment credit on food expenditures. The first equation concerns factors affecting the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal disposable income, namely habit persistence, expected income, the prime interest rate, the unemployment rate, and the percentage of the population aged 25 to 44. The second equation focuses on factors affecting real per capita food expenditures, namely the real price of food, real per capita personal disposable income, seasonality, and a polynomial distributed lag of the measure of the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal disposable income from the first equation. The ratio of installment credit to personal disposable income has a positive effect on food expenditures; over the long run a one percent change in this ratio leads to a 0.15 percent change in real per capita food expenditures. On average, it takes just over six months for a change in this ratio to be transferred to food expenditures.     

20世纪30年代末以来英国居民收入差距的历史变迁及现状评价

20世纪30年代末以来,英国的居民收入差距经历了一个先缩小后扩大的U型变化过程。20世纪70年代末以后英国居民收入差距开始持续扩大,不过进入20世纪90年代该趋势得到控制,收入差距趋于稳定,当前,英国收入差距并不大,在世界范围内处于中等偏低水平。英国居民收入差距的变化意味着居民收入差距的变化趋势不会固定不变,也说明政府政策的取向和干预力度对居民收入差距有着重要的影响。     

Regressive Tax Rates and the Unethical Taxation of Salaried Income

In a regressive tax system, lower-income taxpayers pay larger percentages of their incomes in taxes compared to higher-income taxpayers. Although most policymakers and citizens view regressive taxation as generally unfair and unethical, the U.S. tax system taxes wage, salary, and self-employment income in a manner that deliberately subjects lower-income taxpayers to marginal tax rates that are greater than those imposed on higher-income taxpayers. As a result, some lower-income taxpayers pay a larger percentage of their income in taxes than higher-income taxpayers. In this essay, we argue that this regressiveness in the taxation of salaried income is unfair and unethical. We then evaluate President Obama’s social security plan, which would retain most of the current tax system’s regressive structure. Finally, we offer two simple alternative proposals that are non-regressive, and thus more fair and ethical approaches to the taxation of salaried income.     

我国教育不平等与收入分配差距扩大的动态研究——一项基于各地区教育基尼系数的实证

以教育基尼系数作为刻画教育不平等的指标,选取相关省级面板数据,采用固定效应变截距模型,对我国教育不平等与收入分配差距扩大的关系进行动态研究发现：我国教育不平等与收入分配差距显著正相关．教育不平等每上升1个百分点,收入分配差距将扩大0．412～0．618个百分点,并且,随着时间的推移,教育不平等对收入分配差距的影响越来越大;同时,随着平均受教育年限的延长,我国收入分配差距不仅没有缩小反而在不断扩大。因此,政府应加大教育投入,提高教育资源利用率,发展高级人才市场。以缩小由于教育不平等导致的收分配差距扩大。     

Einkommensschwache Personen: die jüngere Entwicklung in Deutschland

The article examines the structure and development of persons in low income households in Germany from 2011 to 2016. Low income is operationalised as a fixed percentage of median income of all households, similar to the EU’s risk of poverty definition. The low income population rose to 16 per cent in this period but this was the result of increasing average incomes. Above average levels of low income are seen in Eastern Germany and in the migrant population. Employed and retired persons are less affected than the unemployed or students. The increase in the numbers of low income households is mainly due to an increase in the number of migrants. The number of “poor” students has also increased.     

Secondary household production of food: the influence of home meal preparation on food expenditures and reported adequacy

A path model was tested to ascertain the relationships between certain socio-economic and demographic variables, the percentage of household meals prepared and eaten at home (secondary household production), food expenditures, and the household's reported adequacy of food consumed. Significant positive predictors of secondary household production of food were the age of the head and household size. Negative predictors were education of the head, income of the head(s) and number of hours worked by the household head(s). By far the most important predictor was the number of hours worked. The strongest predictor of food expenditures was household size. Other positive predictors were income of the head(s), number of household heads and the degree of urbanization. Negatively affecting food expenditures was secondary household production of food, indicating the ‘saving’ effect of preparing meals at home. The household's reported adequacy of their food was predicted by the positive effect of education of the head, age of the head, tenure, hours worked by the head(s) and number of household heads. Although the number of hours the heads are employed decreased the percentage of meals prepared at home, and the percentage of meals at home negatively affected expenditures, the number of employment hours had no effect on food expenditures.     

政府行为和经济失衡

基础设施建设是利国利民的好事,但在中国,特别是目前的情况下,对我国的结构却起到了坏的作用,从1978-2008年各省份的数据来看。基础设施投资占一个省政府支出的比例,远远高过了居民的收入,很显然是一个负相关的关系。     

国际产品内分工对我国制造业收入分配影响的实证研究

利用1992-2007年间我国制造业细分行业相关数据,先后测算了制造业参与国际产品内分工程度和劳动力相对工资差距,在此基础上通过实证模型分析了国际产品内分工对我国制造业收入分配差距的影响。研究结果表明,参与国际产品内分工是造成制造业行业收入分配差距扩大的主要原因,技术进步程度强化了技术、资本密集型行业中产品内分工对收入分配差距的影响,削弱了劳动密集型行业内产品内分工对收入分配差距的作用。     

税负水平上升对我国税收结构变动的影响

借鉴税收结构变动指数分析中国税负水平与税收结构整体波动的关系,并运用省际面板数据构建计量模型,进一步考察近十几年来税负水平的不断攀升对中国税收结构变动的影响。研究结果显示:税负水平的不断上升推动了税收结构的大幅调整,且使得税收增长更加依赖企业所得税;物价上涨和货币化水平对中国税收结构的变化产生了不同的影响。     

Per capita income,market access costs,and trade volumes

There is strong empirical evidence that countries with lower per capita income tend to have smaller trade volumes even after controlling for aggregate income. Furthermore, poorer countries do not just trade less, but have a lower number of trading partners. In this paper, I construct and estimate a general equilibrium model of trade that captures both these features of the trade data. The key element of the model is an association between trade costs (both variable and fixed) and countries' development levels, which can account for the effect of per capita income on trade volumes and explain many zeros in bilateral trade flows. I find that market access costs play an important role in fitting the model to the data. In a counterfactual analysis, I find that removing the asymmetries in trade costs raises welfare in all countries with an average percentage change equal to 29% and larger gains for smaller and poorer countries. Real income inequality falls by 43%.     

1990—2007年中国居民主观幸福感的影响因素研究

对世界价值观调查数据中1990—2007年的中国部分数据进行分析,可以了解近20年来中国居民主观幸福感的变化趋势和影响因素。通过描述统计和分层回归模型分析,研究发现:近20年来,中国居民的主观幸福感呈下降趋势;人口学变量中的性别、年龄、健康、婚姻、教育和工作都对主观幸福感有影响;相对收入和社会失范对主观幸福感的影响比较大。为了提高中国居民的主观幸福感,在增加绝对收入的同时,缩小社会的相对收入和搞好精神文明建设是非常重要的。     

Population Pessimism and Economic Optimism in the Asian Giants

The timing of China’s and India’s demographic transitions and the implications of alternative fertility scenarios are explored here using a global economic model incorporating full demographic behaviour and measures of dependency that accurately reflect the changing proportion of workers, rather than working‐aged, in the total population. The baseline scenario confirms that demographic change in India may yield significant gains to future real per capita income, resulting from a continuing sharp decline in its total dependency ratio. For China, these gains are largely in the past, although the positive contribution of declining youth and working‐aged dependency to future per capita income will continue to offset the negative impact of rising aged dependency through to 2030. Whilst a policy change to foster higher fertility rates and hence more rapid population growth in China might ultimately ease its dependency burden, in the short run it will increase it. In any case, such a course is contradictory to the goal of delivering improvements in real per capita income. For India, we confirm that the benefits of further fertility reductions, in the form of increased real per capita income, are substantial.     

外资企业税收负担与FDI规模——基于省级面板数据的分析

本文将外资企业的增值税和企业所得税税负作为主要的解释变量,利用省级面板数据来实证检验其对地区FDI规模的影响,并通过测算相关系数来分析FDI对增值税和企业所得税税负的敏感程度,分析表明：不论是增值税税负还是企业所得税税负,都对地区的FDI规模有较强的负面影响,相比于增值税税负,FDI对企业所得税税负的敏感程度更高。     

Income differences among elderly in Malaysia: a regional comparison

Malaysian economic development, formally launched in 1970 through a series of 5‐year development plans, has tremendously improved the quality of life of its citizens. Unfortunately, varying degrees of regional development that lead to regional imbalances produce differential impact on different sets of population in each region. This is especially true for the poverty‐prone groups, which include the elderly, women and children. This study attempts to assess regional differences (between West and East Malaysia) in the well‐being of the elderly as indicated by the income inequality. Specifically, the objectives of this study are to identify sources of elderly income, to determine the mean monthly income and to examine elderly income disparity in the three regions of Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak in Malaysia. A total of 2327 elderly respondents were randomly selected nationwide using the stratified random sampling technique. The study indicated that generally, the income of the elderly in Malaysia is very low as most of them had received no formal education or had only obtained primary school education. In terms of income disparity, the elderly income distribution in Sabah showed an interesting pattern, whereby a high percentage of the elderly was clustered in the bottom 20 and top 20 percentile. However, the distribution of the elderly in Peninsular Malaysia was clustered around the bottom 40 percentile, the middle 60 and the top 40 percentile.     

How price increases affect future purchases: The role of mental budgeting,income, and framing

This article suggests that mental budgeting processes provide afurther understanding of how and to what degree price increases negatively affect a customer's future purchase behavior in a particular category of expenses. Furthermore, the authors analyze how customer income and different price presentation tactics alter this reaction. Results of two experimental studies using both students and non‐students show that customer income attenuates the negative effect of a price increase on the likelihood of a future purchase in a particular expense category. As an underlying mechanism, the influence of customer income on future purchase behavior is partially mediated by the degree to which customers engage in mental budgeting. Moreover, mental budgeting strengthens the negative effect of a price increase on a future purchase in the same category of expenses, whereas it does not alter the effect of a price increase on a future purchase in another category. Finally, the framing of a price increase as a percentage versus in absolute terms leads to a lower likelihood of a future category purchase. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

人民币汇率的决定因素及其走势分析

研究人民币汇率的决定因素及其走势对我国在未来的经济发展具有重要意义。人民币汇率的主要决定因素为国内外的物价和利率水平差异、经济增长速度的快慢、国际收支状况及央行货币政策等。在短期内,由于我国经济增长放缓、美国经济逐渐复苏、美联储退出量化宽松、央行引导挤出套利资金以及国际收支的变动等原因的影响,我国人民币汇率的走势仍是双向波动,2014年内可能不会再出现人民币单边升值。预计未来跨境资金流动和人民币汇率仍保持双向波动的局面,且后者的波动幅度将加大。     

THE IMPACT OF WIFE'S EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS ON FAMILY NET WORTH ACCUMULATION

The major focus of this research was the relationship between wife's earnings and employment and family net worth accumulation. Multiple regression analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Surveys found that, for the total sample, family income had a much greater impact than wife's earnings on change in net worth during the 1967–1972 period. Wife's employment was not related to the dependent variable once the effects of other factors were taken into account When the sample was segmented into four groups on the basis of 1967 net worth, independent variables had differential impacts on net worth change. For each group the multiple regression model explained a much greater proportion of total variance than it did for the sample as a whole. Among the two groups in the mid ranges of 1967 net worth, wife's employment was positively related to net worth change even after taking wife's earnings and other factors into account.     

要素价格变动、技术创新效率偏向与劳动收入份额

基于诱发创新理论检验了要素价格变动对技术创新效率偏向与劳动收入份额变动的影响效应，研究发现要素相对价格变动产生了技术创新效率偏向。在生产要素互补条件下，技术创新效率偏向资本要素时，劳动收入份额趋于下降；技术创新效率偏向劳动要素时，劳动收入份额趋于提高。进一步研究发现，中国1978-2017年总体技术效率处于劳动增进型演化路径，但1978-2004年期间存在技术创新偏向资本效率阶段，这解释了劳动收入份额转折的现象，同时也验证了要素价格诱发创新理论在中国的适用性。     

中国城镇消费结构变动及相关因素的实证分析

本文在对中国城镇居民消费支出结构与居民可支配收入进行协整分析的基础上,引入市场化指数、现代化指数、消费者信心指数等环境因素,对中国城镇居民消费支出结构进行了广义分析。文章认为,中国城镇居民可支配收入、现代化指数、消费者信心指数、市场化指数与消费支出结构都具有长期均衡的协整关系;城镇居民收入与各消费支出均衡机制对消费结构变化具有强烈的制约作用,其强烈程度顺序为食品、医保、居住、家用、衣着、文教、杂项和交通;文教和居住的当期收入对当期消费支出的影响较大;消费结构的变化与居民可支配收入、现代化指数、市场化指数和消费者信心指数息息相关。     

基于促进农村消费的城乡双向物流发展策略

农民收入的低水平,持续增收难度大,预期收入不确定和预期支出增加,城乡收入差距扩大,城乡双向物流发展滞后等因素制约了我国农村消费的增长。而城乡双向物流的发展能从增加农民收入,转变消费观念等方面促进农村消费。为此,应发挥政府的引导作用,加快农村基础设施建设,构建城乡一体化物流信息平台,培养农村物流专业人才,培育多元化的农村物流市场经营主体,创新城乡物流对接模式,促进城乡双向物流的发展。