Multifunctionality and Agricultural Trade Negotiations

Differing views of multifunctionality—attributing nonmarket benefits to agricultural production—continue to be an obstacle in World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. Some nations see multifunctionality as justifying subsidies to agricultural production; others see it as disguised protection. This paper shows that while multifunctionality never justifies trade interventions, it can justify production subsidies or taxes. Recognizing that the subsidies or taxes can be economically efficient policies, nations must precisely define and value the externalities in order to design policies and defend those interventions in the WTO. Trade rules are developed that accommodate domestic policy intervention while preventing disguised protection.     

AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: AMBITIONS AND REALITIES

Agricultural trade policies are basically a function of domestic policy considerations which have produced high levels of support in many countries. New policy instruments such as direct payments, which are more demanding in terms of information costs but which distort resource allocation less, are becoming more attractive. Unilateral liberalisation is, however, unlikely. Freer trade is a public good which requires international collective action to be provided. Countries which have a clear-cut trade interest in liberalising markets for commodities they export can play the role of catalyst in international co-ordination. The existence of big players is a favourable factor. Hence, the drift of the Round towards a co-ordination of US-EC interests. Both political economy and trade interest considerations suggest that an agreement reached will have its main impact on crops which are widely traded. The main constraining factor of an agreement on EC and US agriculture will be the discipline it will impose on the use of export subsidies. Agriculture will still not come fully under GATT rules which apply to other sectors, but in the future the CAP will be more constrained by international commitments than in the past.     

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the International Oilseed Complex

One approach to trade liberalization is the zero-for-zero sectoral approach which involves agreements to eliminate export subsidies, import tariffs, and export taxes in a sector. This article provides an assessment of the impact of border trade liberalization on oilseeds and oilseed products trade. The analysis suggests that under all of the scenarios examined, North American oilseed crushers and oilseed producers gain from trade liberalization. The exact size and the distribution of these gains depends on the number of countries that participate in trade liberalization. The results suggest that the United States and Canada would gain from the adoption of the zero-for-zero proposal.     

Economics of export subsidies under costly and imperfect enforcement

The present paper builds on the published literature on agricultural policy analysis under costly and imperfect enforcement by introducing enforcement costs and misrepresentation into the economic analysis of export subsidies. Specifically, the present paper examines the economic causes of cheating on export subsidies and the consequences of enforcement costs and misrepresentation for the welfare effects and the transfer efficiency of this policy instrument. Policy design and implementation is modelled as a sequential game between a government that designs and enforces the policy and the recipients of the payments. Two alternative policy implementation scenarios are considered. In the first scenario, export subsidies are paid to private trading firms while in the second scenario subsidies are paid directly to the producers of the subsidised commodity. Analytical results show that the introduction of enforcement costs and cheating changes the welfare effects of export subsidies and their efficiency in redistributing income to producers. The analysis also shows that, contrary to what is traditionally believed, the incidence of export subsidies depends on the group that is subsidised to export the surplus quantity – the way the policy is implemented. The results provide additional support for the contention that the economic consequences of cheating are highly policy-specific. Finally, the analysis reveals that when the government faces restrictions on either the volume or the value of export subsidies, cheating reduces the distortionary effects of the policy on international markets. This is true irrespective of whether subsidies are paid to trading firms or to producers.     

Variability in wheat export demand elasticity: Policy implications

Agricultural economists and policy makers in the United States believe that the magnitude of the export demand elasticity is one of the most important parameters used in farm policy decisions. However, past empirical estimates show wide variation in the size of the U.S. export demand elasticity. Reasons for this wide variation go beyond differences in model specification, estimation methods, and period of estimation to involve factors such as trade policies and changes in the supply and demand conditions of foreign countries. In view of the continual variation in magnitude, the elasticity of export demand should be viewed as a variable rather than as a parameter. In this study, U.S. wheat export demand elasticities are computed using a world wheat trade model. The estimates show that the elasticities vary significantly over time. They also reveal that elimination of trade barriers would more than double wheat export demand elasticities.     

AN EXAMINATION OF THE TAX SUBSIDIES TO THE DAIRY SECTORS IN CANADA,GERMANY NEW ZEALAND AND THE UNITED STATES

Subsidies to agricultural producers through domestic tax and social programme policies are generally not included in producer subsidy equivalent (PSE) measures. This study examines the price induced distortions of domestic tax policy and social programmes on dairy trade between Canada, New Zealand, Germany, and the United States. The degree of tax subsidisation and the price subsidies needed to offset the tax and social programme advantages enjoyed by each country are estimated using a simulation model. Study findings suggest that current German taxation policy provides a substantial subsidy to dairy producers. Canadian and US farmers also have some trade advantages because of tax policy and social programmes.     

International competitiveness of Turkish agriculture: a case for horticultural products

This paper defines competitiveness as the ability of a country to increase its share of domestic and export markets, especially when they have a comparative advantage in a product and can produce at a lower opportunity cost. This paper briefly covers the theoretical information on this topic and provides empirical evidence of how domestic resource cost (DRC) can determine international competitiveness. A country is said to have a comparative advantage in the production of tradable goods if that country's production is efficient; if not, then it has a comparative disadvantage. The concept of comparative advantage has two meanings: The first definition states that efficiency of production is compared to two or more trading nations, and when the nations with the lowest opportunity costs are relatively more efficient, they have a comparative advantage. The other meaning of comparative advantage refers to the efficiency of different kinds of production within the domestic economy, which are compared in terms of earnings or savings of a unit of foreign exchange. Turkey seems to have a comparative advantage in plant products that do not exhibit economies of scale and are relatively labour-intensive, i.e. fruits and vegetables eliminating border and non-tariff barriers to trade in agriculture would allow both sides to exploit their comparative advantages better.     

Decomposing changes in agricultural price gaps: an application to Russia

The article develops a method for decomposing changes in agricultural price gaps, defined as the difference between a commodity's domestic producer and border prices. We use OECD's procedure for decomposing changes in the market price support part of producer support estimates as the starting point for our decomposition method, and our method provides a basis for critiquing OECD's decomposition approach. The transmission of changes in border prices (world prices and the exchange rate) to domestic prices is a key element in the decomposition. The method is demonstrated using Russian agricultural price gaps. The results support the argument that for Russian agriculture during the transition period, the main cause of changes in price gaps has been incomplete transmission of changes in the exchange rate to domestic prices, and where the weak transmission results mainly not from policy intervention, but rather from deficient market conditions, in particular poor market infrastructure. The policy implication is that underdeveloped infrastructure has strongly limited the benefits to the Russian economy from agricultural trade liberalization.     

中国海水贝类进出口贸易变动趋势研究

论文旨在从进出口量、额和均价的角度,理清过去一段时期中国海水贝类进出口贸易的变动趋势,并简要分析其影响因素。研究结果显示：1984—2009年,中国海水贝类进出口贸易呈现出波动上升的趋势,前期（1984—1993）波动较为平缓,后期（1994—2009）随国内经济深度融入世界经济,波动幅度逐步加大;同一时期,中国海水贝类进口价格虽然变化不大,但出口价格增长较快;分阶段看,1994—2003年是中国海水贝类进出口贸易增长最快的时期;分物种看,蛤类、牡蛎、扇贝、贻贝以及鲍螺类又各自显现出不同的变动特征。     

Agricultural trade reform under the Doha Agenda: some key issues*

A successful agreement on agriculture is essential for an overall agreement under the WTO's Doha trade negotiations. Reaching agreement has been difficult, and as of August 2007, much still remains to be done if a successful agreement is to be reached. We consider three of the most controversial areas of the agricultural negotiations: the relative importance of domestic support, market access and export subsidies; three market access issues of sensitive‐product exceptions sought for all countries and, the additional special product exceptions sought for developing countries, the proposed special safeguard mechanism; and the domestic support issue. We show that decisions made on reform in these areas will have a critical influence on whether the negotiations achieve their objectives of promoting trade reform and reducing poverty.     

World market integration for export and food crops in developing countries: a case study for Mali and Nicaragua

Using a generalized error correction model, this article measures and compares market integration for export cash crops versus imported food crops for Mali and Nicaragua, and computes transmission elasticities between changes in the goods’ border and domestic prices. Both Mali and Nicaragua obtain the bulk of their export revenue from a particular agricultural commodity—cotton for Mali and coffee for Nicaragua—and both import the same key staple food of rice. To reap the economic gains from this trade specialization, the two countries’ agriculture must be well‐integrated into world markets. The two countries present an important policy contrast that affects their degree of world market integration and price transmission. In Mali, a parastatal enterprise controls its cotton industry, while Nicaragua has less state direction over agriculture. Reflecting this difference, the results show that for both its main export and import commodity, Nicaragua is more integrated into world markets and has higher price transmission than Mali. The results for Nicaragua also show much higher integration and price transmission for its main agricultural export (coffee) than its major import (rice).     

山东省农业支持政策调查

主要调查研究入世以来山东省农业支持政策中的国内支持和市场准入问题;对国内支持的调查研究包括农业财政补贴政策、农村税费改革、农业保险制度,对市场准入的调查研究主要围绕农产品的进出口而展开;提出若干建设性思考。     

A POST-KENNEDY ROUND LOOK AT SOME PROBLEMS IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE

The Kennedy Round, concluded in 1967, ws the most far-reaching in the series of trade negotiations. The United States insisted on the inclusion of agricultural products, with the support of other foodexporting countries. The results for agriculture should not be underestimated. The agreement on cereals gave practical recognition of joint responsibility in food aid. There were also many agricultural tariff concessions. However, it is domestic agricultural policies, not tariffs, which really hamper agricultural trade. The cost of these policies and the extent to which they achieve their objectives are questionable. Competition becomes fiercer for the remaining accessible markets, and export subsidies multiply. The Kennedy Round left the basis problems untouched. It did, however, strengthen the “global” or comprehensive, multilateral approach.     

The U.S. Sugar Policy Reforms and World Sugar Trade

This article incorporates the U.S. sugar policy instruments in a spatial Nash equilibrium model of world sugar trade and simulates the consequences of the U.S. sugar policy reforms on sugar trade among major producing and consuming regions of the world. The results show that policy reforms which eliminate import barriers by the U.S. can lead to major changes in the directions and volumes of sugar trade. Specifically, U.S. sugar imports would increase but domestic production and consumer prices would decline. Several regions in the developing world would increase their shares of the world sugar export trade.     

A proposal for the reduction of domestic price variability during the phase-in period of trade liberalization

Countries replacing existing trade barriers with a fixed tariff may find that domestic price variability rises to politically unacceptable levels. This paper shows how the tariff-reduction formula can be modified to delay the transmission of world price variability. The importance of this modification is demonstrated by a simple two-country, one-commodity simulation model. The simulation results show that tariffication of existing EC variable levies/export subsidies would dramatically increase price variability within the European Community and that the transmission of this variability can be delayed by slightly altering the ***adjustment formula.     

中国出口人造板产品质量及其影响因素研究

基于1998—2017年中国人造板产品贸易相关数据,运用并修正HallakSchott模型,测算中国出口人造板产品质量。建立回归模型,实证分析中国出口人造板产品质量的影响因素。结果表明:中国出口人造板产品质量稳步上升,但质量水平仍然较低,且增速较慢,存在较大的上升空间;人均工资对中国出口人造板产品质量具有显著的正向影响;出口贸易壁垒和进口贸易壁垒对中国出口人造板产品质量具有显著的负向影响。最后,提出规范人造板产品出口市场,适当提高进入门槛和产品质量标准;合理配置核心竞争要素,推动行业升级的建议。     

China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios

This article reviews recent developments in China’s agricultural domestic support policy, especially the transition from taxing farmers and agriculture to providing direct subsidies to grain production and purchased inputs. A model‐based quantitative analysis on the effects of these policy changes is presented. Simulation results suggest that recent policy changes have achieved the declared policy goals of increasing grain production and boosting farm income. Much of the increase in grain production and farm income can be attributed to higher per unit return to arable land, land reallocation to grain production and extra agricultural employment triggered by the policy changes. Based on the assumption that China’s public assistance to agriculture and farmers will continue and rise, two hypothetical future scenarios are simulated. Using all the support permitted under WTO de minimis limits with existing instruments, China’s policy will increase grain production, change trade patterns seemingly contrary to China’s comparative advantage, increase rural employment and significantly increase farm income (by more than 12%). If, however, decoupled instruments are applied to raise China’s agricultural domestic support to the same level, China’s agricultural production and trade will remain unchanged, rural employment remain stable, but farm income will be increased by nearly 15%.     

Explaining National Border Effects in the QUAD Food Trade

Using a ‘structural’ gravity‐like model, this paper first provides estimates of bilateral ‘border effects’ in food trade among the QUAD countries (the US, Canada, Japan and the EU) at the ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification) four‐digit level (18 food sectors). It then investigates the underlying reasons for border effect, assessing the role played by policy barriers (tariffs, non‐tariff barriers to trade (NTBs) and domestic support) with respect to barriers unrelated to trade policy, such as information‐related costs, cultural proximity and preferences. In contrast to several previous findings, our results show that policy trade barriers, especially in the form of NTBs, are part of the story in explaining national border effects. Interestingly, in all country pair combinations, NTBs significantly dominate the trade reduction effect induced by tariffs. However, results show that elements linked to information‐related costs and consumer preferences matter a great deal in explaining the magnitude of border effects. These findings have implications for the economic and welfare‐related significance of national borders.     

Determinants of dairy-product trade: Do subsidies matter?

Given the recent changes in the supply and demand of dairy products, many opportunities arise for exporting and importing countries. This paper examines determinants of dairy-product trade by applying the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method to the gravity model using panel data on 49 exporting and 235 importing countries for the 17 years from 2000 to 2016. The gravity model is estimated using both interval data and dynamic analyses. The results show that domestic subsidies have a modest, but significant, impact on dairy-product trade across the models. For example, a 1% increase in subsidies leads to a roughly 0.02% increase in trade for an average country. Memberships in trade agreements, market size factors, and government institutions also positively affect dairy-product trade. However, tariffs are insignificant in the main model specification. Results from the lag-policy analysis show that the impact of subsidies disappears after the second year of distribution; whereas for the lead-policy analysis, results suggest at least 3 years of anticipatory effects on domestic subsidies.     

Livestock pricing policy in sub-Saharan Africa: objectives,instruments and impact in five countries

Livestock pricing policies in many developing countries are often instituted without a good appreciation of the consequences of such policies for allocative efficiency, output and trade. This paper evaluates, in a comparative cross-country context, the objectives and instruments of livestock pricing policy in five sub-Saharan African countries: Ivory Coast, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan and Zimbabwe during the period 1970-86. It assesses the extent to which pricing policy objectives have been attained, and also estimates the effects of price interventions on output, consumption, trade and government revenues in order to draw out lessons for the future. The empirical results indicate that in comparison with real border prices, a certain degree of success was achieved in stabilising real domestic producer prices in the study countries. The results also show that since the early 1980s, there has been a gradual shift away from taxation of producers. However, consumers still appear to gain as much as producers in three of the study countries, with negative consequences for foreign exchange earnings and government revenues. The analysis reveals the importance of domestic inflation and exchange rates as key variables for livestock pricing policies and highlights the need to address the macroeconomic imbalances that cause exchange rate distortions and high domestic inflation at the same time that direct price distortions are being tackled.