Bank deregulation is better than mergers

The effects of mergers on bank costs, prices, profits, and market competition are compared with the effects from concurrent deregulation of branching restrictions. The title states our conclusion: deregulation has been better than mergers in Spain. Even so, improved post-deregulation economic conditions accounted for most of the improvement in costs and profits while deregulation had its greatest impact on improving competition. Analysis indicates that direct measures of market competition—rate spread, mark-up, and Lerner index—are more informative than the standard profit–structure relationship.     

Inflation dynamics with search frictions: A structural econometric analysis

The New Keynesian Phillips curve explains inflation dynamics as being driven by current and expected future real marginal costs. In competitive labor markets, the labor share can serve as a proxy for the latter. In this paper, we study the role of real marginal cost components implied by search frictions in the labor market. We construct a measure of real marginal costs by using newly available labor market data on worker finding rates. Over the business cycle, the measure is highly correlated with the labor share. Estimates of the Phillips curve using generalized method of moments reveal that the marginal cost measure remains significant, and that inflation dynamics are mainly driven by the forward-looking component. Bayesian estimation of the full New Keynesian model with search frictions helps us disentangle which shocks are driving the economy to generate the observed unit labor cost dynamics. We find that mark-up shocks are the dominant force in labor market fluctuations.     

The determinants of U.S. banks’ international activities

This paper develops a model and structural dynamic estimation of bank behavior to map the relationship between U.S. banks’ choices of foreign banking activities, and bank and foreign market traits. This estimation framework is applied to a unique bank-level dataset compiled from regulatory sources, covering U.S. banks’ foreign activities in 83 host markets over the 2003–2013 period. Bank traits are better able to explain the evolving patterns of foreign banking than host market characteristics. After controlling for these traits, the post-financial crisis period shows a structural shift away from cross-border claims towards foreign affiliate activities. Structural estimates of foreign market entry costs and regulatory attitudes towards risk are derived. Simulation exercises confirm the strong impact of banks’ and regulators’ risk stance on bank profits and portfolio composition.     

Time-varying foreign-exchange risk and central bank intervention: estimating profits from intervention and speculation

Failure to risk-adjust estimates of profits, from central-bank foreign exchange intervention or from private speculation, can have large effects on the estimated profits, including changing signs. Many choices arise in deciding how to adjust profits for risk. The time period over which a market model is fit has mixed effects on calendar-year profits; variations in profits across calendar years is much more important than the period over which the market model is fit. In some cases, but not in all, results are sensitive to whether a US stock market index is used or a world market index. For non-US central banks or private speculators, the relevant market index might be denominated in USD, but alternatively might be denominated in a foreign currency. For the Swedish central bank, estimated profits decline importantly if an index measured in USD is used instead of an index measured in SEK. In estimating market models where beta is conditioned on some measure of intervention, likely candidates are intervention or cumulative intervention; the first has an effect for one or a few days, the second has long-term effects. Estimates show that the choice can make an important difference, though the effects are not all one way.     

Insiders' profits,costs of trading,and market efficiency

This study investigates the anomalous findings of the previous insider trading studies that any investor can earn abnormal profits by reading the Official Summary. Availability of abnormal profits to insiders, availability of abnormal profits to outsiders who imitate insiders, determinants of insiders' predictive ability, and effect of insider trading on costs of trading for other investors are examined by using approximately 60,000 insider sale and purchase transactions from 1975 to 1981. Implications for market efficiency and evaluation of abnormal profits to active trading strategies are discussed.     

Splitting orders

A standard presumption of market microstructure models is thatcompetition between risk-neutral market makers inevitably leadsto price schedules that leave market makers zero expected profitsconditional on the order flow. This article documents an importantlack of robustness of this zero-profit result. In particular,we show that if traders can split orders between market makers,then market makers set less-competitive price schedules thatearn them strictly positive profits and hence raise tradingcosts. Thus, this article can explain why somebody might willinglymake a market for a stock when there are fixed costs to doingso. The analysis extends to a limit order book, which by itsnature is split against incoming market orders: equilibriumlimit order schedules necessarily yield those agents positiveexpected profits.     

The relevance of information and trading costs in explaining momentum profits: Evidence from optioned and non-optioned stocks

Considerable evidence from many countries suggests momentum strategies generate profits. These have been difficult to rationalise and evidence on the sources of such profitability is inconclusive. We utilise a sample of optioned stocks, characterised by high liquidity, high market capitalisation and fewer short sales constraints and compare results with control samples of non optioned stocks chosen on the basis of market value, turnover and bid–ask spread. The sample characteristics, and the fact that derivatives improve the impounding of information into prices, enable us to draw conclusions about the causes of momentum profits. While we find that short sales constraints are not the major driver of profitability and that most momentum profits disappear using two transactions costs measures of the bid–ask spread, one not previously used, the persistence of some momentum profits indicates that the market underreacts even to the most publicly available information.     

Transactions data tests of efficiency of the Chicago board options exchange

This paper performs lower boundary condition tests based on rational pricing of call options and an implied standard deviation test based on the bid/ask prices of options. These efficiency tests attempt to closely approximate conditions in the option markets to avoid the pitfalls indicated by Phillips and Smith (1980). The tests use transactions data and account for the effects of stock and option bid/ask prices, simultaneity of stock and option prices, depth of market, execution lag and transaction costs. The small and relatively infrequent profits due to market mispricing disappear in the lower boundary tests when transaction costs are taken into account. Frequent violations of the tighter boundary conditions in the implied standard deviation test are reported, but the estimated profits cannot be unambiguously attributed to option market inefficiency.     

Effects of order flow imbalance on short-horizon contrarian strategies in the Australian equity market

We use Lo and MacKinlay's [Lo, A.W., MacKinlay, C., 1990. When are contrarian profits due to stock market overreaction? The Review of Financial Studies 3, 175–205.] contrarian portfolio approach to examine the profitability of short-horizon contrarian strategies in the context of the Australian Stock Exchange. The results show that simple contrarian strategies lead to small but still statistically significant profits when applied to daily and intra-day portfolio formation. However, the profits are not sufficient to cover transaction costs for institutional investors. The source of contrarian profits is also analyzed leading to the conclusion that stock market overreaction is found to be the primary source of contrarian profits. We also examine the relation between the degree of return reversal and order flow activity after abnormal price changes. We find that the degree of return reversal is positively related to the level of order flow imbalance. Larger profits are generated from order flow based contrarian strategies when the order flow imbalances are high.     

Market structure, informational efficiency and liquidity: An experimental comparison of auction and dealer markets

We report the results of 18 market experiments that were conducted in order to compare the call market, the continuous auction and the dealer market. Transaction prices in the call and continuous auction markets are much more efficient than prices in the dealer markets. The call market shows a tendency towards underreaction to new information. Execution costs are lowest in the call market and highest in the dealer market. The trading volume and Roll's (Journal of Finance (1984) 1127–1139) serial covariance estimator are inappropriate measures of execution costs in the present context. The relation between private signals, trading decisions and trading profits is analyzed.     

The Effects of Regulated Premium Subsidies on Insurance Costs: An Empirical Analysis of Automobile Insurance

State regulation of rates is sometimes used as a means to make automobile insurance more affordable to consumers by restricting insurer profits and pricing practices. Incentive distortions arising from this type of rate regulation might lead to higher accident rates and higher insurance loss costs. Annual state‐level panel data for the time period 1980–1998 are used to investigate these effects, using empirical methods that recognize the endogenous determination of states’ regulatory choices. Results suggest that rate regulation that systematically suppresses (some or all) drivers’ insurance premiums is associated with significantly higher average loss costs and higher insurance claim frequency.     

Individualism and Momentum around the World

This paper examines how cultural differences influence the returns of momentum strategies. Cross-country cultural differences are measured with an individualism index developed by Hofstede (2001) , which is related to overconfidence and self-attribution bias. We find that individualism is positively associated with trading volume and volatility, as well as to the magnitude of momentum profits. Momentum profits are also positively related to analyst forecast dispersion, transaction costs, and the familiarity of the market to foreigners, and negatively related to firm size and volatility. However, the addition of these and other variables does not dampen the relation between individualism and momentum profits.     

Proprietary Costs and the Disclosure of Information About Customers

In deciding how much information about their firms’ customers to disclose, managers face a trade off between the benefits of reducing information asymmetry with capital market participants and the costs of aiding competitors by revealing proprietary information. This paper investigates the determinants of managers’ choices to disclose information about their firms’ customers using a comprehensive data set of customer‐information disclosures over the period 1976–2006. We find robust evidence in support of the hypothesis that proprietary costs are an important factor in firms’ disclosure choices regarding information about large customers.     

LONG-RUN RELATIONS IN EXCHANGE MARKETS: A TEST OF COVERED INTEREST PARITY

We examine long-run relations implied by covered interest parity (CIP) in possibly cointegrated and nonstationary data series. Empirical evidence suggests that, ignoring market imperfections, CIP failed over January 6, 1984, through December 6, 1991, using weekly data from four major currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. The multivariate maximum likelihood vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology does not require data differencing and hence retains valuable information lost in previous research examining international market flows. Rejections are robust to both subperiod analysis and alternative interest rate series. Although test rejections are highly statistically significant, attainable economic profits appear small. Practitioners will find economic profits inconsequential relative to reasonable bounds on market frictions such as transaction costs. Nonetheless, the use of CIP to determine forward rates identically from interest rates and spot rates in academic studies is called into question.     

Liquidity and Autocorrelations in Individual Stock Returns

This paper documents a strong relationship between short‐run reversals and stock illiquidity, even after controlling for trading volume. The largest reversals and the potential contrarian trading strategy profits occur in high turnover, low liquidity stocks, as the price pressures caused by non‐informational demands for immediacy are accommodated. However, the contrarian trading strategy profits are smaller than the likely transactions costs. This lack of profitability and the fact that the overall findings are consistent with rational equilibrium paradigms suggest that the violation of the efficient market hypothesis due to short‐term reversals is not so egregious after all.     

Tests of the efficiency of the U.S. rights offering market: An option pricing approach

The efficiency of the U.S. market for stock purchase rights is empirically analyzed in an options framework, in which prices of rights, given the prices of underlying stock, are examined with regard to the possibilities of actually earning above-normal profits, considering the risk taken. Two neutral hedging tests for market efficiency, along with a simple buy-and-exercise trading strategy, are applied to daily traded rights data. Results from ex-post hedging tests suggest that the trading strategy based on the rights valuation model is able to differentiate between overpriced and underpriced rights so as to generate substantial book profits. The positive ex-ante hedge return, found to exist empirically, is completely eliminated once transaction costs are introduced, lending support for the efficient U.S. rights offering market on an after-transaction cost basis.     

Mortgage Default with Asymmetric Information

This article analyzes mortgage-market equilibrium when borrower default costs are private information. By applying the approach of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976), it is shown that asymmetric information regarding default costs distorts the contract choices available in the mortgage market, preventing safe borrowers (those with high default costs) from fully satisfying their demand for mortgage debt. Large loans are available for a substantial interest-rate premium, but only risky borrowers find this premium worth paying. The article builds on an empirical literature designed to test the ruthless-default principle from option-based models of mortgage pricing. That literature provides evidence against ruthless behavior, suggesting that default costs play an important role in borrower decisions. The article takes a further step by arguing that such costs are private information, which has important implications for market equilibrium.