Unions, competition and international trade in general equilibrium

We develop a two-country, multi-sector model of oligopoly in which unionised and non-unionised sectors interact in general equilibrium. The model is used to study the impact of trade liberalisation, deunionisation and firm entry on wages in unionised and non-unionised sectors, and on welfare. We find that a shift from autarky to free trade increases non-union wages and welfare, whereas the effect on union wages is ambiguous. We also show that partial deunionisation leads to higher wages in both unionised and non-unionised sectors, but only increases welfare when the proportion of unionised sectors is sufficiently low. Finally, wages in non-unionised sectors necessarily increase with firm entry, while the response of union wages and welfare depends on the trade regime.     

Gains from trade under variable returns to scale,commodity taxation,tariffs and factor market distortions

This paper examines the effect on welfare of improvements in the terms of trade and movement from autarky to free trade in the presence of variable returns to scale, production and consumption taxes, tariffs and factor market distortions. By expressing welfare in terms of a social welfare function and by considering infinitesimal changes in prices, sufficient conditions for the nonharmfulness of trade and improvements in the terms of trade are obtained which substantially weaken those obtained by Kemp and Negishi (1970).     

Intra-industry trade and heterogeneity in pollution emission

This paper develops a model of intermediate goods firms heterogeneity with respect to a pollution parameter to analyze the effects of intra-industry trade on final good output, pollution and welfare. By focusing on intra-industry trade we consider trade between similar countries. We analyze both trade between developed countries, and trade between developing countries. In our model, final good producers pay an environmental tax on the total pollution emitted in their country. Therefore, final good producers determine the overall level of pollution by demanding ‘cleaner’ or ‘dirtier’ intermediate goods. To focus on intra-industry trade we consider only intermediate goods firms trade. We analyze three scenarios: closed economy; open economy with no impediments to trade; and open economy with transportation cost. Our main findings are: i. a developing country closed to trade faces lower final good output and higher total pollution and is thus worse off than a developed country; ii. countries are better off under trade than under autarky, regardless of their development level; and iii. an open economy with low transportation costs are better off than an open economy with no impediments to trade.     

Globalization and the dynamics of cultural identity

This paper presents a simple model where micro-founded dynamics of cultural identity are endogenous and interact with an international trade equilibrium. This process generates a strong home bias under autarky. We then show that goods market integration causes a phenomenon of cultural divergence, whereby the distributions of cultures become more dissimilar across countries and one of the cultures that existed under autarky ultimately disappears. By way of contrast, we show that social integration causes cultural convergence and can counterbalance the effects of goods market integration.     

贸易自由化福利收益模型和我国服务贸易发展的现实选择

通过构建福利收益模型,将服务贸易自由化和货物贸易自由化的收益进行比较,可得出如下结论:服务贸易自由化比货物贸易自由化的收益大。以发展服务贸易为主,实现服务贸易的自由化是贸易自由化发展的高级阶段,但我国目前的服务贸易发展水平还不具备这种条件。针对我国服务贸易及服务业中存在的问题,本文为提高服务贸易竞争力、促进服务贸易自由化提出了相应的政策建议。     

Market integration,environmental policy,and transboundry pollution from consumption

Recent empirics report that transport cost reductions significantly contribute to rapidly growing world trade. This article develops a reciprocal market model of intra-industry trade with transboundary pollution from consumption to consider how market integration in the form of transport cost reductions affects the noncooperative choice of an environmental policy and the equilibrium welfare. I show that market integration can improve welfare locally, but that welfare under any non-prohibitive trade cost can not be higher than welfare under autarky. This possibility of trade losses exhibits a sharp contrast to the case of production-generated pollution.     

Migration,Unemployment and Trade

Using an oligopoly model of trade with asymmetric costs, we study the individual and world welfare implications of a hub and spoke trade agreement where the hub country is more efficient than spoke countries. Under a hub and spoke trade regime, the hub country can benefit at the expense of the spokes relative to free trade. Furthermore, if the hub is sufficiently efficient compared to the spokes, such a regime can yield higher global welfare than free trade. Preferential treatment of the efficient hub country in its export markets improves world welfare because it helps allocate a larger share of the world’s output to a low cost location.     

Globalization and domestic conflict

When a resource like oil is domestically contested, trade patters and welfare can be very different than when property rights are costlessly enforced. Whereas (small-country) importers of the contested resource gain unambiguously relative to autarky, exporters of the contested resource lose under free trade, unless the world price of the resource is sufficiently high. Regardless of what price obtains in world markets, countries tend to over-export the contested resource compared to the absence of conflict. For a wide range of prices, higher international prices of the contested resource reduce welfare, an instance of the “natural resource curse.”     

Globalization and domestic conflict

When a resource like oil is domestically contested, trade patters and welfare can be very different than when property rights are costlessly enforced. Whereas (small-country) importers of the contested resource gain unambiguously relative to autarky, exporters of the contested resource lose under free trade, unless the world price of the resource is sufficiently high. Regardless of what price obtains in world markets, countries tend to over-export the contested resource compared to the absence of conflict. For a wide range of prices, higher international prices of the contested resource reduce welfare, an instance of the “natural resource curse.”     

Buy Local? Governmental Incentives to ‘Inform’ Consumers

This paper considers governmental incentives to provide information to local consumers about the relative merits of local versus foreign goods. We construct a model in which a local firm in a small, open economy competes in its domestic market with imports. Consumers are willing to pay an idiosyncratic premium for the local product, drawn from some support that the importing country government can affect through a costly information campaign. We examine incentives to undertake such a campaign in autarky and in the case of trade. We show, inter alia, that while a national welfare‐maximising government will always wish to shift this distribution upwards, it may not wish to reduce the variance of valuations, and that the optimal response of a foreign government will be to increase any support it offers to its exporters. Furthermore, falling world prices generally reduce the attractiveness of such a campaign both to a welfare‐maximising government and to one that cares only for domestic profits.     

Buyer power in international markets

This paper investigates the implications for international markets of the existence of retailers/wholesalers with market power. Two main results are shown. First, in the presence of buyer power trade liberalization may lead to retail market concentration. Due to this concentration retail prices may be higher and welfare may be lower in free trade than in autarky, thus reversing the standard effects of trade liberalization. Second, the pro-competitive effects of trade liberalization are weaker under buyer power than under seller power.     

Strategic trade policies with first-mover and second-mover advantages in a vertical structure

With strategic trade policies, we consider first- and second-mover advantages in a vertical structure given the two-part tariff contract (composed of the input price and the fixed fee) of an upstream firm, where a home and a foreign final-good firms export to a third-country market. We find that the upstream firms’ and governments’ preference orderings over sequential versus simultaneous play and over free trade versus a regime of subsidies contrast with early results in the strategic trade policy. Thus, the endogenous market structure is that (i) the potential leader chooses the Leader role with quantity strategies, and the equilibrium trade regime is unilateral subsidy regardless of the nature of goods; (ii) with price strategies, the potential leader chooses the simultaneous timing, and the equilibrium trade regime is bilateral taxes (free trade) when goods are substitutes (complements).     

Up the average cost curve: Inefficient entry and the new protectionism

A two-country model is developed in which each country produces one good with increasing returns, the goods being perfect or imperfect substitutes. With Cournot-Nash behavior and free entry, certain restrictive trade policies have effects opposite to their favorable effect under noentry assumptions. Import tariffs and export subsidies lead to inefficient entry that raises rather than decreases the average production cost of and price charge by the domestic industry with negative welfare consequences. We argue that these predictions of our model are closely consistent with extensive Canadian data on entry, exit, and firms' responses to trade liberalization.     

Endogenous market structure and the growth and welfare effects of economic integration

This paper studies the growth and welfare effects of integration in a world economy populated by global oligopolists. In economies that move from autarky to trade, growth and welfare rise because exit of domestic firms is more than compensated by entry of foreign firms so that integration generates a larger, more competitive market where firms have access to a larger body of technological spillovers that support faster growth. The effects of a gradual reduction of tariffs are different because economies start out from a situation where all firms already serve all markets. In this case, the global number of firms falls so that the variety of consumption goods and the diversity of innovation paths fall. The surviving firms, on the other hand, are larger and exploit static and dynamic economies of scale to a larger degree. These homogenization and rationalization effects work in opposite directions. Under plausible conditions, the rationalization effect dominates and growth and welfare rise.     

General equilibrium trade modelling with Canada–US transportation costs

Transportation costs are an important topic in international trade, but seldom have researchers paid attention to general equilibrium trade modelling with transportation costs and explored their relevant effects. This paper uses numerical general equilibrium trade model structures to simulate the impacts of transportation costs on welfare and trade for a Canada–US country pair case. We compare two groups of model structures: Armington assumption models and homogeneous goods models. Within these two groups of models, we also compare balanced trade structures to trade imbalance structures and production function transportation costs to iceberg transportation costs. Armington goods models generate more absolute welfare gains from transportation cost elimination than homogeneous goods models. Welfare gains under balanced trade structures are larger in production function transportation cost scenarios than in iceberg transportation cost scenarios, but under trade imbalance structures, welfare gains are greater under iceberg transportation cost scenarios. Canada's welfare gains in the iceberg transportation cost scenario are significantly larger than gains in the production function transportation cost scenario. On trade effects, homogeneous goods models generate more export and import gains, balanced trade structures have more trade variations, and iceberg transportation costs generate more trade effects.     

Trade Growth in a Heterogeneous Firm Model: Evidence from South Eastern Europe

In 2007 a free trade area (BFTA) will be created in the Balkans. In this paper we study BFTA‐induced trade growth in the SEE. Given that welfare impacts associated with trade growth depend on the growth channels, more goods and varieties exported or at higher price or more volume of exported goods and varieties, we study the structure of integration‐induced export growth in the Balkans. Given that no firm‐level trade data is available for the Balkans, we adopt the heterogeneous firm framework, which allows to decompose aggregate trade growth into intensive margin of trade and extensive margin of trade using only aggregate trade data. Our empirical findings predict that the BFTA would primarily increase the export volume through a growing number of shipments (the extensive margin of trade) suggesting that the actual welfare gains from the trade growth in the Balkans might in fact be larger than predicted in previous trade studies. We also found that reducing variable trade costs leads to higher export growth rates compared to reducing fixed trade costs by the same percentage.     

A trade theoretic analysis of outward capital flows: with special reference to Hong Kong

This paper sets up a trade theoretic model to explain the output, price and welfare consequences of the outward investment from Hong Kong to the Pearl River Delta. A four-good trade theoretic model is set up to incorporate some special features of the Hong Kong Economy. We assume that the economy produces four goods: an exportable good, an importable good and two non-traded goods. A special feature of the model is that one of the non-traded goods (locally produced) is also consumed by foreigners and produced under the assumption of non-competitive market framework. As tourist or business-centre trade is of great significance to Hong Kong, this model allows us to capture this phenomenon. First, precise conditions are derived regarding the decline in manufacturing output in Hong Kong. Second, it is shown that, in spite of the supply side determination of the relative price of non-traded goods, income effects in this market are of great significance in both income (welfare) and output movements. These income effects cannot be captured in industrial organization type applied work. Third, it is shown how outflow of capital affects labour productivity. A surprising result obtained for this part of the analysis is that a fall in productivity (outflow of capital and de-industrialization) creates a favourable terms-of-trade effect in the monopolized sector. The welfare effect consists of four terms: (1) a terms-of trade effect via the price of non-traded goods consumed by tourists/foreigners; (2) the loss (gain) in productivity due to an outflow of capital; (3) repatriation payments; and (4) the gains from exporting from the Special Economic Zones as well as other Pearl River Delta cities. Our decomposition has two very important features in contrast to traditional models: a terms-of-trade effect from the consumption of services and productivity gains or losses. The last point is exceedingly important for policy makers specifically if outward flow of capital affects productivity negatively.     

The impact of trade on aggregate productivity and welfare with heterogeneous firms and business cycle uncertainty

This paper presents a model with monopolistic competition, productively heterogeneous firms, and business cycle aggregate shocks. With firm-specific productive heterogeneity, weaker firms quit when faced with a negative aggregate shock. Consequently, trade does not always increase firm-level aggregate productivity as negative shocks on the home market can be compensated for by positive shocks elsewhere. Weaker firms, which would otherwise quit in autarky, can continue to operate by exporting. Despite this, trade can still improve welfare for the risk-averse consumer by reducing aggregate price fluctuations.     

The Welfare Analysis of a Free Trade Zone: Intermediate Goods and the Asian Tigers

We analyse trade reform among the ASEAN countries, which recently began removing all mutual trade barriers. The standard method to avoid complete specialisation in traded goods is to distinguish goods both by physical type and place of origin (the so‐called Armington assumption). This methodology is not suitable for the sort of intermediate goods produced by the ASEAN countries. We develop a computational approach in the context of a non‐Armington dynamic general equilibrium model. Analysing the results of a calibrated version of the model, we find that trade liberalisation is generally welfare improving for the ASEAN countries.     

Monetary policy in developing countries: lessons from Kenya

We estimate and then simulate a model of Kenyan economic development from 1965 to 1997 with two objectives in mind. The first is to demonstrate the degree of volatility of cyclical shocks that developing countries experience and to calculate the domestic nominal adjustments required by these shocks under both irrevocably fixed and free exchange rates.A comparison of these counterfactual nominal adjustments identifies the short-run implications for an economy of the choice of exchange rate regime. The second objective is to provide an estimate of the consequences for the economic development of Kenya of the lack of a coherent monetary order (excessive domestic credit expansion and overvalued exchange rate) throughout most of the period since 1965.A neoclassical convergence growth model based on Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992) is employed and calibrated to represent the long-run growth path of real GDP in Kenya. A short-run four-sector CGE model is constructed that allows for cyclical movements of real GDP about the convergence growth path. The cyclical model focuses on the adjustment of the relative price of non-traded goods that is required to ensure short-run equilibrium in the non-traded goods sector. Given that terms of trade shocks dominated the macro environment of Kenya over the sample period, we find that a free exchange rate regime would have insulated the economy to a greater degree than an irrevocably fixed regime. In the growth decomposition exercise, we estimate that the two largest (and negative) influences on Kenyan economic growth were the decline in the external terms of trade from 100 in 1965 to an average of 79.5 over the 32-year time period, and the overvalued Kenyan shilling represented by a premium on the parallel market for foreign exchange. Overall, we estimate that the overvalued exchange rate reduced economic growth by an average of 0.47 per cent per annum over the 32 years.