影响未来全球经济的九大风险与挑战

一场70年来最大的金融危机中止了全球近30年的大景气周期。2009年上半年全球主要经济体国家都出现了连续两个季度以上的衰退,为阻止危机进一步升级,2月以来,全球各国央行和政府联手推出力度空前的金融救援和财政刺激计划。在超大规模的政策激励下,5月份,全球经济深度衰退态势得到了初步遏制,并出现更多积极迹象;其中美国基本面数据出现衰退见底信号,欧洲及日本也出现微弱的好转现象,而新兴经济体复苏迹象则更为明显。但是这些迹象是否真正预示全球经济进入复苏通道？本文对未来影响全球经济走势的九大风险给予研判。     

2002年世界经济形势与中国的对策

2001年世界经济陷入了30年来最严重的衰退。这次衰退是继多年经济繁荣后的“硬着陆”,衰退导致世界经济增长曲线呈现“U”字型。从全球主要经济机构的预测结果看,2002年世界经济前景依然黯淡。世界经济的复苏,取决于美国经济的复苏,而美国经济复苏主要依靠扩张性政策的拉动,是政策导向型的复苏。面对严峻的外部经济环境,2002年中国经济要实现7%以上的增长,在立足于内需的同时,应对对外经济政策做适当的调整。     

我国预算会计制度存在的若干问题探讨

在1998年实行新预算会计制度以前,我国预算会计体系主要由财政机关总预算会计和行政事业单位预算会计两部分组成。为了满足社会主义市场经济体制下财政管理体制改革的需要,充分发挥会计信息在各级政府及政府单位中的作用,1998年预算会计改革重新设计了一套较为完整的预算会计体系。这个体系由各级人民政府财政会计、事业单位会计、行政单位会计和参与执行财政总预算收入执行的国库会计和收入征解会计组成。     

1998年加拿大科技发展综述

1998年是世界经济极为动荡的一年,亚洲金融风暴加剧、波及面扩大。加拿大虽也受到亚洲金融风暴的冲击,但对整体经济形势影响尚不十分严重,目前一些主要经济指标显示,1998年加拿大的经济增长幅度较预计的为低,约为2．9％,但仍将有发展。1997年以前,加联邦预算赤字在百亿加元以上,近年来通过坚持不懈地实行发展经济、提高就业消u减财政赤字的社会发展政策,加拿大于1998年在西方工业发达国家中率先实现了平衡预算的目标。科技投入为尽快达到平衡预算,加联邦政府近年来一直实行财政紧缩政策。1998年虽实现了平衡预算,但受国际大环境…     

公共财政监督与预算透明度研究

财政工作透明度是现代预算制度的重要标志,其中预算执行透明度是财政透明度的中心环节。从1998年提出建设公共财政框架体系以来,我国的财政透明度建设取得了重大进展,预算执行透明度也大为提高。为政府资金的正确合理使用创造了制度的约束力。     

中国财政货币政策为何不能四两拨千斤

通货紧缩、过剩经济、买方市场是近年来我国理论和实务界热烈讨论的话题,人们在讨论这些问题时,提出要借鉴治理 192 9- 1933年经济大萧条的经验。在那场大危机中,美国政府实施了著名的“罗斯福新政”,配套运用了财政和货币两大政策工具。在财政政策上,罗斯福政府抛弃传统的平衡预算政策,实行赤字财政,用举债的方法举办公共工程和落后地区开发,促进经济复苏和增长。“罗斯福新政”把美国从深渊中挽救过来,对缓和经济危机、促进经济恢复和减少失业起到很大作用,同时,也为美国经济开辟了一条通过国家直接干预经济来摆脱危机的道路。     

公共财政监督与预算透明度研究

财政工作透明度是现代预算制度的重要标志,其中预算执行透明度是财政透明度的中心环节.从1998年提出建设公共财政框架体系以来,我国的财政透明度建设取得了重大进展,预算执行透明度也大为提高.为政府资金的正确合理使用创造了制度的约束力.     

2013年上半年我国宏观经济与财政政策分析报告——下半年热钱流出格局与深度转型期的财政体制改革

2013年第二季度,美国经济逐步企稳回暖,美联储退出量化宽松(QE3)政策的预期也进一步加强。与此同时,日本继续实施所谓的"安倍经济学",试图通过持续的本币贬值来提振经济。总体上来讲,世界经济形势进入到复苏的"前夜"阶段,但进度可能不一。本轮复苏,"领头羊"可能是发达经济体,特别是美国经济的复苏,新兴市场经济体需要承受一段时间热钱流出带来的"痛苦"以及经济基本面继续低迷的担忧。我们在报告中估算了我国月度热钱规模,建立了热钱流动的三因素模型。我们发现,接下来两个季度,我国可能会面临持续的热钱流出压力,国内流动性状况堪忧。2013年2季度我国GDP增速为7.5%,这与我国年初的经济增速目标一致。值得注意的是,下半年我国经济可能存在继续向下的风险。我们预计2013年3~4季度的GDP同比增速分别为7.4%、7.1%。随着2013年年底美国经济开始真正进入复苏通道,将带动我国出口领域提升,2014年年初我国经济基本面有望企稳回升。面对短期严峻的经济形势和中长期处于深度转型期的时代背景,要继续推进基本公共服务均等化,促进城镇化进程,就必须大力实施财政体制改革。我们提出:(1)建设促进机会公平的财政体制,防止社会阶层固化,促进社会纵向流动性;(2)建立全口径政府预算体系,加强人大对预算的监督、审议和修改能力;(3)加快完成"营改增",并以"营改增"为突破口,继续推进税制改革;(4)进一步扩大市政债试点,逐步建立公开透明、结构完善的地方基础设施融资体制;(5)建立财政收入的中长期预测体系,增强财政在支持城镇化进程和促进经济结构转型期的可持续性。     

分税制改革、财政分权与中国经济增长

该文在 Zhang 和 Zou(1998)与 Lin 和 Liu(2000)的框架下实证检验了中国1986?2002年财政分权与经济增长的关系,发现我国的财政分权效应存在显著的跨时差异和地区差异.我们认为,分税制改革后各级政府之间政策协调能力的加强是促进财政分权积极作用的重要原因之一.同时,体制变革的因素、转移支付的设计和政府财政支出的构成也影响了财政分权与经济增长之间的关系.     

全口径预算改革应该做些什么

正全口径预算可以解读为三个层次的预算全面性:预算程序、预算文件和政策效应。后者定义为预算中采纳的政府政策的全部财政效应。在预算不能反映政府政策造成的全部财政效应时,预算的全面性就无法得到保证。即使某些政府活动并不遵循法定预算程序,也没有得到立法机关的审查和授权,而是遵循其他特定的治理安排(比如专款专用),这些活动和支持这些活动的资金,亦应在预算文件中报告,而且预算文件     

我国财政政策作用机制与经济周期波动的相关性研究

我国积极财政政策在总需求管理过程中起到了重要作用.通过判断我国财政政策工具和财政政策规模与经济周期波动之间的关联,描述结构VAR模型中财政政策的作用和反馈过程,我们发现我国积极财政政策操作过程中体现出了一定程度的相机选择性和对经济周期阶段的依赖性,这意味着在我国经济增长已经出现"软扩张"的经济周期态势下,应当适当调整财政政策的期限结构和政策工具,加强货币政策的组合作用,继续保持积极财政政策对国内产出的作用方向.     

Study on Medium- and Long-Term Fiscal Policies to Cope with Climate Change under the “Dual Carbon” Goals

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality constitute an extensive, profound and systemic economic and social change. It is worthwhile to explore how fiscal policy, as a key institutional arrangement in the public policy system to cope with climate change, can play a fundamental and pillar role. Based on literatures, theories and empirical materials, this paper systematically explores the relationship between climate change and public finance. The fiscal impact of climate change will eventually be reflected in fiscal behavior, fiscal costs and fiscal relations, and the fiscal system has the adaptability of an “automatic stabilizer” and the proactiveness to enable the Discretionary Approaches function when facing climate change impacts. This implies such a governance logic of fiscal policy that is systematic, forward-looking and flexible in addressing climate change. In the future, it is necessary to further incorporate climate change or related environmental factors into the fiscal policy framework, target the two key aspects of mitigation and adaptation, and carry out a holistic, systematic and forward-looking reform of the existing fiscal expenditure policy, fiscal revenue policy, fiscal investment and financing policy, government budget system, government procurement policy and ecological compensation policy. While highlighting the “governance” function of fiscal policy in addressing climate change, Chinese government needs to strengthen the coordination and collaboration between fiscal policy tools and other public policies, and magnify the governance effectiveness of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change. This paper helps understand the positioning, role and influence of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change, provides a basis for better playing the fundamental and underpinning role of the modern fiscal system in the governance of ecological civilization, and presents an analytical framework for building a theoretical system of ecological fiscal governance.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions: Evidence from emerging European economies

This paper examines the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy for some former transition, emerging European economies over the 1995Q1–2010Q4 period by using a Markov regime-switching model. We consider the monetary policy rule proposed by Taylor (1993) and the fiscal policy rule suggested by Davig and Leeper (2007) in accounting for monetary and fiscal policy interactions. Empirical results suggest that monetary and fiscal policy rules exhibit switching properties between active and passive regimes and all countries followed both active and passive monetary policies. As for fiscal policy, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, and Slovenia seem to have alternated between active and passive fiscal regimes while fiscal policies of Poland and the Slovak Republic can be characterized by a single fiscal regime. Although the policy mix and the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy point a diverse picture in our sample countries, the monetary policy seems to be passive in all countries after 2000. This finding is consistent with the constraints imposed by European Union enlargement on monetary policy.     

相机抉择政策、经济增长与地区产出波动

本文旨在研究地方政府的相机抉择政策对经济增长和产出波动的实际影响。本文首先从预算软约束和晋升激励的角度分析这一政策的作用方式，然后用模型测度出相机抉择政策，并以2000—2013年的省际面板数据进行实证检验。研究表明，相机抉择的确刺激了地方经济增长，但却带来了明显的产出波动。不过相机抉择政策具有明显的时滞，其真实效果集中凸显在政策实施的两年后。因此，我国应加强公共财政制度的建设，使相机抉择政策在规则的框架下更为合理地使用。     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area

The problem of monetary and fiscal policy interactions is an important issue for the euro area, since the individual member states of the EMU are responsible for their fiscal policies but monetary policy is pursued by a single monetary authority, the ECB. This paper is concerned with empirical evidence on monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. We first explore fiscal regimes with a VAR model and find empirical evidence that a non-Ricardian fiscal policy has been pursued in both France and Germany. As an example, we then study how one member state of the EMU, namely, Italy, is responding to the common monetary policy with its fiscal policy and find that Italian fiscal policy seemed to be counteractive to the common monetary policy between 1979 and 1998. In order to study monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a more general way, we explore time-varying interactions by estimating a State-Space model with Markov-switching for some Euro-area countries. There appear to be some regime changes in monetary and fiscal policy interactions in France and Germany, but the interactions between the two policies are not strong. Moreover, the two policies have not been accommodative but counteractive to each other. Finally we explore forward-looking behavior in policy interactions and find that expectations do not seem to have played an important role in the policy designs.     

Stepping on a rake: The role of fiscal policy in the inflation of the 1970s

The inflation of the 1970s in the US is often discussed as if the only type of policy action that could have prevented the inflation were monetary policy actions and the only type of policy errors that might have induced the inflation were monetary policy errors. Yet fiscal policy underwent dramatic shifts in the 1970s and economic theory makes clear that in an environment of uncertainty about future fiscal policy, monetary policy instruments may lose potency or have perverse effects. This paper documents the vagaries of fiscal policy in this period and argues that people at the time must have been uncertain about fiscal policy's future course. It also lays out a theoretical framework for understanding the effects of fiscal uncertainties on monetary policy and shows that fiscal variables have predictive value in dynamic models, even if traditional monetary policy indicators are included in the system.     

Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China

We characterize the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in China along two related dimensions. First, we estimate the sign and size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Second, we assess whether fiscal policy is conducted pro‐ or counter‐cyclically. To account for the challenges posed by China's vast geography, we use data at the provincial level. We find that (i) fiscal policy generally has ‘Keynesian’ effects, and (ii) fiscal policy is mostly conducted pro‐cyclically. This means that fiscal policy is more an element of destabilization than a tool for stabilization.     

The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Fiscal Policy

This paper reviews the recent evolution of thinking and evidence regarding the effectiveness of activist fiscal policy, including how policy multipliers might vary with respect to economic conditions. Like many other countries that were hit by the “Great Recession,” the USA responded initially with active fiscal policy measures. But a more positive view of fiscal intervention appears to have developed earlier in the decade, and estimated decision rules confirm that there was an increase in policy activism. While this positive view has been tested by the unclear effects of fiscal policy during the Great Recession, recent evidence does suggest that fiscal policy may be especially effective in recession. Fiscal policy activism has also been tempered by recent concerns about growing government debt, a development which potentially might also undercut the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy.     

What is the right balance between US monetary and fiscal policy? Explorations using simulated wavelet-based optimal tracking control

This paper uses wavelet-based optimal control to simulate fiscal and monetary strategies under different levels of policy restrictions. The model applies the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform to US quarterly GDP data and then uses the decomposed variables to build a large 80-dimensional state-space linear-quadratic tracking model. Using a political targeting design for the frequency range weights, we simulate jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policy where: (1) both fiscal and monetary policy are dually emphasized, (2) fiscal policy is unrestricted while monetary policy is restricted to achieving a steady increase in the market interest rate, (3) only monetary policy is relatively active, while fiscal spending is restricted to achieving a target growth rate, and (4) monetary policy emphasizes short-run stabilization, while fiscal policy utilizes political cycle targeting. The results show that fiscal policy must be more aggressive when the monetary authorities are not accommodating the fiscal expansion and that the dual-emphasis policy leads to a series of interest rate increases that are balanced between a steadily increasing target and a low, fixed rate. This research is the first to construct integrated fiscal and monetary policies in an applied wavelet-based optimal control setting using US data.     

财政政策:遵守规则还是相机抉择

2004年10月,诺贝尔经济学奖的颁发,又一次引发了人们对财政政策时间一致性的关注,遵守规则的政策主张似乎又一次回归主流。通过比较英、美等发达市场经济国家财政政策的变迁以及通过分析政策规则与相机抉择不同的理论假设,我认为在制定财政政策时必须两者兼顾。我国现行的稳健(中性)财政政策恰恰体现了这种思想的内涵与本质。