融资约束、产品质量与出口目的地选择

文章将融资约束、产品质量引入异质性企业贸易模型,研究企业融资约束对其出口目的地选择的影响,并从产品质量的视角进行机制分析。理论模型推导得出企业生产率与其在低收入国家出口占比呈负相关关系,而融资约束的存在则强化了这种负相关关系。通过理论分析发现,生产率、融资约束对于企业最优产品质量选择的决策会产生相反的影响,在不同收入水平的国家对产品质量偏好不同的情况下,这种机制恰恰可能解释了企业出口目的地选择的差异。文章使用中国微观企业贸易数据,进行实证研究发现：融资约束与企业出口低收入国家贸易占比成正向关系,此外融资约束与生产率之间存在着调节效应,生产率的提高可以缓解企业由于受到融资约束带来的影响。     

Dropouts,Defaulters, and Continuing Borrowers: Client Exit from Microfinance

High dropout rates are a problem faced by many microfinance institutions, with borrowers exiting after a few loans. The curiosity of dropouts is that, unlike defaulters, they repay their loans. To understand this I investigate differences across borrowers using data from Zimbabwe. I find that negative shocks are a significant predictor of dropout, but not of default, and that social networks are the most important correlate of on‐time repayment. The results show the importance of social networks in determining credit relationships.     

Globalization,agricultural markets and mass migration: Italy, 1881–1912

Despite the significant attention paid to the current consequences of globalization for migration behavior, there are few historical accounts of the effect of commodity market integration at the local level. We set our paper within the context of the first globalization era, when migration flows were largely unregulated, and highlight how exogenous shocks in agricultural commodity prices influenced international migration flows from Italian provinces between 1881 and 1912. To do this, we construct an index of global price exposure based on the initial provincial agricultural production structures. Our analysis quantifies the contribution of globalization-induced agricultural-price shocks to migration decisions, alongside more traditional explanatory factors such as migrant networks and landholding systems. We find evidence that agricultural-price shocks are positively related to the propensity to migrate, as migration tended to increase in proportion with agricultural commodity prices. This result suggests that liquidity constraints were binding until agricultural incomes reached a certain threshold. These findings can inform our understanding of present-day migration responses in developing countries in the face of even more rapid globalization but higher barriers to legal migration.     

Does poverty constrain migration in South Africa? Evidence,explanations and implications

There are indications that poor people may face obstacles to their rural–urban migration. This article pursues the question of whether this is the case in the South African context. It argues for the importance of longitudinal data, which are not available at present, to answer this question conclusively. Levels of education can be used as a proxy for income levels, and the article examines recently published multivariate data in this regard. However, using education as a proxy for income is problematic, because education has an independent effect on migration rates through its selection of those with the skill levels demanded by the labour market. The article develops an argument about the constraining effects of the costs of migration and the role of social networks in migration and ends by demonstrating how the costs of migration can solve a number of puzzles presented by empirical research on migration.     

Social credit and patent quality: Evidence from China

We combine the discredited people database disclosed by the China People’s Supreme Court and the China industry business performance database from 2003 to 2014 and examine the effect of regional social credit on the quality of patents, measured by knowledge breadth. We find that a loss of social credit can result in a significant decline in patent quality. The result remains robust to a series of sensitivity checks, including using the alternative measures of key variables and exploiting the number of missionary universities established since the Opium War as an instrument for social credit. The possible mechanisms for the effect of social credit on patent quality are further verified, including attenuating external financing constraints and enhancing the innovation incentive.     

融资约束与中国制造业企业出口——基于Heckman样本选择模型的经验检验

本文从非正规金融贸易信贷的研究视角切入,构建衡量企业融资约束的应收账款相对比例指标,研究融资约束对中国制造业企业出口的影响效应。运用Heckman样本选择模型控制样本选择偏误,本文对2004～2007年11.8万家中国制造业企业的分析表明:融资约束制约了中国制造业企业的出口行为,并且这种制约作用存在显著的企业规模指向性、地区指向性、行业指向性和所有制指向性。本文的结论为我们理解融资约束与出口之间的关系提供了中国经验。     

REMITTANCES AND AGGREGATE LABOR SUPPLY: EVIDENCE FROM SIXTY‐SIX DEVELOPING NATIONS

Do remittances reduce labor supply in recipient economies? This paper addresses this question with aggregate level data for a panel of sixty‐six developing countries from the Middle East and Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean over the period 1985 to 2005. The results exhibit a positive and significant relationship between remittances and aggregate labor supply. The effect is clearly driven by men in each of the three regions. Three potential explanations are put forward to explain these empirical findings: (1) non‐migrating household members are likely to increase their labor supply in order to defray migration‐related expenses; (2) neighboring households increase their labor supply to help family members migrate after they become more aware of the benefits of remittances; and (3) remittances overcome credit constraints, thus generating employment.     

供应链金融的融资约束缓解效应研究——基于中国创业板数据的实证分析

针对中小企业融资难的现实,本文从信号传递机制及共生理论视角,提出供应链上合作关系的稳定性以及核心企业信用扩散对供应链金融模式下中小企业融资绩效调节机理的构念模型及相关假设,并运用2011年-2017年我国创业板上市企业的面板数据进行了实证研究。结果显示:企业的现金持有量会随其经营性现金流正向变动,这表明企业面临着一定的融资约束;而在加入供应链金融发展水平变量后,企业的现金持有量变动受经营性现金流的影响减弱,这表明融资难度有所降低。进一步地,本文引入供应链上合作关系的稳定性以及核心企业的信用扩散影响两个调节变量,分别在原有模型中加入交互项进行了总体回归和分组检验,研究发现供应链金融模式对于供应链上合作关系趋于稳定的企业以及受核心企业信用扩散影响的企业具有更显著的融资约束缓解效应。     

方言能力与流动人口的借贷机会——基于CLDS的经验研究

文章采用2012年中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据,从语言的视角出发研究了流入地方言能力对流动人口有效借贷机会获取的影响。基于工具变量法的估计结果表明,流入地方言能力对流动人口有效借贷机会的获取具有显著的积极影响,且是通过方言技能→社会资本→借贷行为这一逻辑链条而发生作用的。另外,文章还发现流入地方言能力对低收入群体有效借贷机会的获取有积极的影响,而对高收入群体的影响并不显著。在分别控制流动人口的普通话和外语水平后,两者间的关系依然是显著的,说明本文的结论是稳健的。     

ON THE MOTHER AND CHILD LABOR NEXUS UNDER CREDIT CONSTRAINTS: FINDINGS FROM RURAL INDIA

There is an emerging consensus that lack of credit is a major cause of child labor and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of resources. At the same time, patterns in how children spend their time appear to be strongly influenced by maternal employment decisions. This paper includes an assessment of the effect of credit constraints on maternal employment and that of maternal employment on the intrahousehold allocation of labor, a nexus which has been left unexplored by existing studies. Three findings emerge: (1) a mother is more likely to work outside when a household lacks resources, and her domestic labor can be easily replaced by other members, (2) credit market accessibility is one of the major determinants of maternal labor, and (3) elder daughters assume a large part of the burden of maternal employment by providing domestic labor. Under binding credit constraints, results of this study support the collective as opposed to the unitary model of households.     

SMEs,borrowing constraints and banking relationships in Japan

At the dawn of the introduction of a new set of regulatory reforms in Japan’s financial services industry, reactions are mixed about the consequences for operators and users of financial services when they come into effect from the new fiscal year. One that is evident is the credit constraint experienced by firms, especially SMEs. The effect as this study finds is such that the advantage usually conferred by long-standing banking relationship and main bank ties upon firms to favored access to bank credits is no longer guaranteed. Indeed, availability, not cost of credit has become of greater concern to SMEs irrespective of industry. In the face of the prevailing credit situation, however, greater awareness has been gained by firms that continuity of relationship with their banks may pay off later. Since the present crisis is due partly to the unintended consequences of previous reforms, appropriate and timely steps should be taken to ensure that SMEs, the weaker link in the industrial chain, are not overly marginalized by any future fall-outs of the new reforms.     

企业社会责任、经济政策不确定性与融资约束——基于社会责任“累积-保险”效应的研究视角

综合运用2009-2017年A股上市公司数据,通过长、短期社会责任的影响对比,考察了在面对经济政策不确定性的冲击时,企业社会责任对融资约束的影响效应,并论证了不同政策不确定程度下的效应表现机理。结果表明：企业社会责任具备"累积效应",长期社会责任的融资约束缓解作用强于短期社会责任;企业社会责任也具备"保险效应",会显著削弱经济政策不确定性加剧融资约束的程度。进一步研究发现,高经济政策不确定性下："累积效应"仍然存在,且会因长期社会责任"保险效应"加强而得到强化。不同产权性质下：国有企业的融资约束受政策不确定性影响较小,且"双效应"更稳定;而非国有企业的社会责任对融资约束的缓解作用更强,但受经济政策冲击更大。研究揭示了企业社会责任对融资约束的积极效应,呼吁企业应积极履行社会责任并值得长期坚持。     

国际人口迁移、信贷约束与人力资本积累

本文以收入不平等与经济增长的关系为基础,在信贷市场不完全的条件下,进一步考察了熟练劳动力跨国迁移对发展中国家人力资本积累及经济增长的影响。分析显示,基于跨国移民的"教育激励"效应对发展中国家的人力资本积累及经济增长的影响在短期和长期存在差异。短期中,基于跨国移民的"教育激励"效应会减缓"人才流失"效应对发展中国家人力资本积累及经济增长的负面影响,甚至可能会提高发展中国家熟练劳动力的比重,从而促进人均收入水平的提高。长期中,当代际转移收敛于稳态水平时,国际人口迁移不再具有"教育激励"效应,而国际人口迁移的"人才流失"效应则会继续损害人力资本积累,从而对发展中国家的人均收入产生负面影响。     

EVALUATION OF CONTINGENT REPAYMENTS IN MICROFINANCE: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL DISASTER IN BANGLADESH

Frequent and strictly scheduled repayments and savings in microfinance often deteriorate the liquidity of members in the face of negative shocks. Previous articles suggest the introduction of a contingent repayment system that allows such members to be rescheduled, but the unavailability of a suitable dataset makes it difficult to examine how it would actually work. This study is one of the first to evaluate the impact of this repayment system on household livelihood. In employing a unique dataset from Bangladesh, I show that rescheduling reduces the possibility of binding credit constraints and borrowing from moneylenders, and may also reduce transitory poverty. However, short‐term rescheduling has insignificant effects. Indebted members with less liquid assets are more likely to be rescheduled.     

ESG信息披露、媒体监督与企业融资约束

ESG信息披露包含企业环境保护、社会责任履行和公司治理状况等内容,关乎企业的可持续发展。ESG信息披露能否有效缓解企业融资约束难题,媒体监督对两者关系是否存在调节效应是值得研究的主题。文章在理论分析了ESG信息披露对企业融资约束的影响,以及媒体监督在其中调节作用基础上,运用2011-2020年度中国上市公司的相关数据,基于媒体监督视角实证检验了ESG信息披露与企业融资约束间的关系。研究发现：ESG信息披露能显著缓解企业融资约束,媒体监督能进一步缓解ESG信息披露与企业融资约束间的关系,媒体积极报道能够提升 ESG信息披露对企业融资约束的缓解效应;进一步异质性分析表明,ESG信息披露的融资约束缓解效应在非国有企业、处于成长期或成熟期的企业、新《环保法》实施后、自愿披露社会责任的企业中表现得更加显著。     

健康冲击、数字普惠金融与家庭消费

基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据和"北京大学数字普惠金融指数",分析健康冲击对家庭消费的影响,以及数字普惠金融在其中所起的作用。基于固定效应模型的实证结果表明,健康冲击显著降低了家庭的非医疗消费支出,但数字普惠金融能有效地减轻这种影响;同时就分指标而言,数字普惠金融指标体系一级维度中的覆盖广度和使用深度,二级维度中的信贷、保险、货币基金以及支付这四个子指标均显著地平滑了冲击下的家庭消费。就作用机制而言,数字普惠金融主要通过缓解家庭流动性约束和强化非正式社交网络来帮助家庭应对健康冲击对消费的影响。异质性分析的回归结果显示,健康冲击对中西部地区、户主受教育水平较低以及金融素养水平较低的家庭影响更大,同时这种影响还与冲击的程度正相关,进而数字普惠金融的积极作用在这部分家庭中表现得更为明显。文章的研究结论进一步阐述了数字普惠金融发展对改善金融包容性的重要现实意义,并在微观层面上解释了数字普惠金融发展对改善家庭福利、防止因病致贫返贫的积极作用。     

出口固定成本、融资约束与中国企业出口参与

本文基于新新贸易理论和中国企业面临融资约束的现实,建立离散动态出口模型,发现克服出口固定成本和缓解融资约束可以促进企业出口参与。进而运用2004～2008年中国七十余万家制造业企业数据,从内源融资、银行信贷和商业信贷3个维度衡量融资约束,实证检验理论分析。结果发现,克服出口固定成本是企业参与出口的关键,商业信贷对企业出口参与贡献最大,银行信贷次之,内源融资贡献最小。细化样本后发现,克服出口固定成本仍然是出口的关键,但是,无内源融资企业较之有内源融资企业,内资企业较之外资企业,出口融资都更多依赖商业信贷和银行信贷;国有企业出口融资更多依赖银行信贷,而民营企业更多依赖商业信贷。变化融资约束衡量方法后,结果依然稳健。     

从博弈角度看银行审贷成本与信贷配给

文章通过一个博弈模型,分析了银行通过贷前审查手段甄别借款人资信时所面临的两难困境,从而揭示了银行在中小企业信贷中实施信贷配给的一个微观机制。由此得到的启示是,解决中小企业贷款难问题的关键,在于营造一个理想的社会化信用环境,改善中小企业整体资信状况。     

PARTIAL DOLLARIZATION,EXCHANGE RATES,AND FIRM INVESTMENT IN PARAGUAY

Between 1989 and 1993 the government of Paraguay removed most restriction on financial transactions in domestic and foreign currency. The resulting financial deepening also involved partial dollarization. This investigation sought to determine whether partial dollarization led to negative balance sheet effects (in the form of reduced access to investment credit due to depreciation‐induced reduction in firms’ net worth as a result of currency mismatches on their balance sheets) and, therefore, to investment contractions, at the firm level, in the face of real currency depreciations. Support was found for that thesis. However, there was also evidence that banks expanded credit more rapidly in the face of currency depreciations. These apparent contradictory movements in credit and investment were shown to be a result of the absence of any clear causal link (in a Granger sense) between bank credit to the private sector and private investment in Paraguay.     

The Incentive Effects of Inequality: An Experimental Investigation

The effect of inequality on economic growth and efficiency is often debated. Our study investigates a behavioral phenomenon through which inequality might have adverse effects on economic growth. In particular we investigate whether or not individuals exhibit a discouragement effect in the face of inequality that leads to lower work effort. If such an effect exists, it provides a mechanism for converting even idiosyncratic inequality into sustained inequality with adverse consequences for the individuals being affected by the inequality and the economy as a whole. We investigate this phenomenon using an economic experiment to allow us to cleanly vary the nature of inequality and to allow us to directly observe several characteristics of the workers. We find robust support for the existence of a discouragement effect lending credibility to the claims that such an effect would exist in external situations among workers confronted with disadvantageous inequality.