Policy reform and growth in post-Soviet Russia

In pursuit of its transition from a command to a market economy, Russia has witnessed enormous regional differences in economic growth rates. Moreover, the implementation of economic reforms has also differed markedly across regions. We analyze whether regional differences in reform policies can account for regional differences in growth rates, and conclude that to a considerable degree, they can. Most notably, we find that regional differences in price liberalization policies exhibit a positive direct correspondence with growth. We also find that regional differences in large-scale privatization exhibit a positive correspondence with the regional formation of new legal enterprises, which in turn exhibits a strong positive correspondence with growth.     

Housing demand in Russia: Rationing and reform1

In a number of articles Alexeev (1988a) and (1988b) shows that in the former Soviet Union the administrative rationing of housing was partially replaced by market forces acting through the second economy. This paper uses a much richer dataset to update his analysis for Russia to consider housing demand in 1992, the last year of the administrative allocation system. Almost immediately after the survey used for this analysis Russia began to privatize the housing stock as part of its movement towards a market economy. The questions we ask are: Were households really able to beat the system, as argued by Alexeev and, if so, were they still able to do so in 1992? Our answer to the second question is that in 1992 households were not able to beat the system. Income had no observable effect on housing demand. Furthermore, we do not think that the difference in our empirical results and Alexeev's is due only to the broader economic changes that occurred since his estimation or the richer dataset available to us. Indeed, our answer to the first question is that there are good reasons for arguing that Alexeev's estimates of the income elasticity of housing demand are biased upwards.     

An Economic Analysis of Extortion in Russia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Economic reform and interprovincial inequalities in China

This note is an attempt to explore two issues: (1) the trend of interprovincial inequality in the post-1978 reform era in China; and (2) the factors behind the dynamics of interprovincial inequality. Using recently released provincial gross domestic product (GDP) data, we have shown that interprovincial inequality decreased in the fast half of the 1980s, but started to increase in the second half of the 1980s. To understand the impact of sectoral reforms on interprovincial inequality, the overall inequality in provincial per capita GDP is decomposed into the contributions by the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. It seems that the trend of interprovincial inequality has been largely induced by the reforms of the industrial sector which make up a large share of the secondary sector. In addition, national income data from the socialist national accounting system are used to identify the impact of interprovincial resource flows on interprovincial inequalities. The findings seem to suggest a relative decline in the role of redistributive budgetary transfers.     

The gender pay gap in Russia during the transition, 1992-96

This paper explores the link between rising wage dispersion in Russia over the transitional period and the gender pay gap. The work of Blau and Kahn (1996) emphasized a role for 'wage structure' in the determination of the gender pay gap, although some interpretational issues concerning their methodology have been raised recently by Suen (1997). The unadjusted gender pay gap between 1992 and 1996 exhibited some degree of stability, but the analysis presented identified increased wage dispersion as a modest agent for the widening of the gap in Russia. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates for an equation pooling observations from both gender groups, registered no statistical difference in the mean ceteris paribus gender pay gap between the two years. To complement the mean regression approach, quantile regression procedures were also employed. Although the median regression provided evidence of a statistically significant temporal increase in the gender pay gap, this finding was not supported at other chosen quantiles of the wage distribution. This result was taken to highlight the possible sensitivity of the OLS procedure.
JEL classification: J16, J31, P23.     

An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia

This article uses longitudinal household data to examine the decline in the Total Fertility Rate in Russia from 2.0 in 1989 to 1.3 in 2001. Using individual and community-level panel data spanning the 1994–2001 era, the decline in household income can account for about a 28% decline in yearly birth propensities amongst married couples. The relationship between educational attainment and fertility appears to have changed markedly in the post-Soviet era. More educated individuals now have greater propensities to bear children than their vocationally educated counterparts within marriage. Female labour force participation is not strongly associated with fertility decisions of married women in the post-Soviet era, and local provisions for children also do not have important effects. These results suggest that improving real family incomes will be more important in raising fertility rates than improving child benefits levels or increasing community childcare provisions.     

俄罗斯经济发展形势的分析与预测

本文采用俄罗斯2002-2013年的季度数据作为样本,主要分析了季节性差分自回归模型——SARIMA模型在俄罗斯季度GDP预测中的应用,通过相应的分析最终得到了SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)4为俄罗斯季度GDP的最优预测模型.通过该模型对俄罗斯短期和长期经济发展形势进行了预测,得出俄罗斯未来四年的GDP年增长率在2.3％左右,长期的经济增长率在2.1％左右,经济形势依然不容乐观.     

Young children and women's labour force participation in Russia, 1992–20041

We document the changing labour force participation patterns of women with young children in Russia during 1992–2004. In this period maternity leave benefits became less generous, and childcare was privatized and became increasingly scarce. Using nationally representative household survey data it is shown that in 1992, there was essentially no association between the probability of a woman being a labour force participant and her having a child under age 3. However, by 2004, having children under age 3 had become associated with significantly reduced participation and employment probabilities, conditional on other observable characteristics of women and their households, and local factors. Several potential explanations for these findings are discussed.     

Assessing Sino-Indian Economic Relations in an Interdependence Framework: 1992-2008

This study situates Sino-Indian economic interaction under the interdependence framework.By mapping conflict behavior in this dyad against the trends in the economic interdependence,we find a discernible shift away from escalation(high-level conflict)towards bargaining(diplomatic contestation).This paper argues that interdependence has only recently emerged in the India-China dyad and that lingering strategic distrust,national security consideration,and protectionist tendency have prevented the deepening of economic interdependence.The findings challenge the direction of interdependence in this dyad normally gleaned from nominal trade data.This paper also highlights key issue-areas that inhibit strategic coupling in the bilateral economic interaction.     

中国经济转型绩效分析:1992—2006

本文从经济转型实现程度的视角出发,设计指标体系,采用指标区间评分,纵向时间序列分析的方法来评价中国经济转型绩效.研究结果显示,在1992-2006这一期间,中国经济转型绩效是优异的,且转型已进入了后期阶段.但转型的基础并不稳固,今后仍充满了不确定性与风险,因此需要在目前转型基础上,着重解决失衡问题,全面推动其它层次的转型.     

Economic reform and migration in Yugoslavia: an econometric model

"The paper analyzes the impact of external migration on the Yugoslav economy during the period 1965-1972. This is done by means of a macroeconometric model embodying various dualistic characteristics of Yugoslavia. A counterfactual simulation of the model is used to judge the impact of external migration. According to the indicators utilized, the simulation suggests that migration has been beneficial to Yugoslavia."     

俄罗斯设立经济特区历史进程与经验教训

本文系统考察了俄罗斯举办经济特区的历史沿革和最新动向,阐述了俄罗斯经济特区分布状况、主要形式、管理体制和优惠政策,分析了俄罗斯设立经济特区的经验教训。     

Recovery Growth and Some Peculiarities of the Contemporary Economic Situation in Russia

This article shows that after the collapse of the USSR the post-socialist countries all followed a similar path: after the transformation fall in social production they are now in the stage of growth. Moreover, this does not depend on particular circumstances connected with, for example, the absence or presence of exportable resources, government by one party or another or the accession of any particular politician to power. This growth, called recovery growth, by its nature inevitably fades, and in Russia its possibilities are practically exhausted. However, the question is not about driving up the pace of growth, which is dangerous. On the contrary, efforts must be concentrated on preparing and carrying out comprehensive, interconnected structural reforms, which will also ensure steady economic growth in the future. The country, the author says, must learn to develop using not so much instruments of state coercion as private incentives and initiative.