不同汇率机制下石油价格波动的金融CGE模型分析

随着中国对进口石油依赖度的逐渐增大,国际石油价格的波动对经济系统的冲击越来越受到政府部门和中外学者的密切关注.为了从数量上把握冲击的效果,本文基于一个实物部门与金融部门相统合的中国金融可计算性一般均衡(CGE)模型,结合三种不同的汇率机制(固定汇率、部分浮动汇率、完全浮动汇率)分别从宏观和产业层面定量分析石油价格波动对经济系统影响的综合效果,提出并评价应对石油价格波动的措施和建议,并提出相关政策含义.     

人民币升值对中国制造业影响的动态CGE研究

本文设计四种不同的汇率升值情景,利用一个中国经济的动态CGE模型—MCHUGE模拟分析了人民币升值对我国制造业的影响。研究结果表明:在人民币汇率升值的过程中,各行业进出口量的增长具有缩小效应,且人民币汇率升值依然会使制造业各行业产值有所上升;在相同的进口替代弹性下,出口商品数量的减少与国内商品转换弹性正相关;当人民币汇率升值,食品、纺织、化工、金属、机械行业的国内商品价格增幅随进口替代弹性的增大而降低。     

Regional and National Perspectives of China's Integration into the WTO: A CGE Inquiry with Emphasis on the Agricultural Sector

China's integration in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is already on its fast track. Understanding the complexity of China's dynamic adjustment resulting from its membership in the WTO and the differential regional impacts within China is very important and poses crucial challenge in evaluating its impacts. In this study, we make an attempt to incorporate seven regional commodity-detailed models into a dis-aggregated multi-sector and multi-region China Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. This framework has allowed us to evaluate the impacts of China's integration into the WTO at both national and regional levels and analyze the inter-linkages between China's provincial agricultural markets. Using the framework and assumptions about factor mobility, we assess the impacts on China's agricultural and non-agricultural sectors (regionally and nationally) by reduction of its trade policy distortions, such as tariffs rate changes and quantitative restrictions. We also evaluate the structural changes on China's national and regional production and trade as China implements its commitments and moves into the WTO.     

城市治理中地方政府行为偏差的机制分析

随着社会转型、市场化和城市化的发展,城市治理中地方政府行为偏差的弊端日益突出.由于行为主体的复合性、利益差异化、动机逆向差序以及地方政府在城市治理中表现出的自我扩张、追求趋同、过度畸形的"行政区行政"状况以及沉没成本巨大、过度负债、短期化与表面化问题的出现.导致了社会冲突的增多.激励不相容、信息不对称和约束力量不足等严重的运行机制缺陷是其行为偏差频出的主要根源.矫正地方政府行为,必须建立科学有效的城市治理运行机制,突出政府行为的隐性成本和政绩的外延成本,实现城市治理主体的信息资源共享,拓宽公众利益保障渠道,硬化机制的约束力量.     

Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.     

Allowing for uncertainty in exogenous shocks to CGE models: the case of a new renewable energy sector

The paper explores the importance of allowing for uncertainty in the magnitude of exogenous shocks in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The shock examined is the introduction of a new onshore wind sector in North East Scotland. A simple analytical model is developed to show how, a priori, the size of the new sector (the model shock) is uncertain and asymmetrically distributed as a result of spatial correlation in costs and returns across potential development locations. The importance of allowing for this uncertainty is tested by comparing the results from a CGE model where the sector size is assumed known with certainty to those from a model where the sector size is a random variable with an asymmetric distribution. The results show the extent to which allowing for uncertainty can influence the magnitude of estimated impacts with some variables more sensitive to the uncertainty than others.     

Where process development begins: A multiple case study of front end activities in process firms

The front end phase of the new product development has been examined extensively, yet few if any studies have examined the front end phase of new process development. By means of a multiple case study of process firms, this article aims to bridge this knowledge gap. Our results show that substantial differences in front end activities exist between the product development and process development domains. We conceptualize the front end in process development to be an iterative trial-and-error process, dominated by activities such as idea generation and refinement, literature reviews, anticipation of end-product changes, and various forms of experiments in bench scale, lab scale, and full-scale production. In addition, we highlight key problems in the front end and managerial remedies for how to mitigate them. While these findings provide theoretical implications for research into product development, process development and production management, the findings are particularly relevant to process development managers, plant managers, and development engineers interested in increasing the efficiency of production processes.     

Forecasting economies in transition: The case of Romania

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable true economy to be discovered. This paper extends the analysis of Hall (1993) by exploring the consequences of endemic structural change for forecasting and building structural econometric models. We propose a model formulation which makes the econometric model itself able to adjust its parameters in the light of economic change using the Kalman Filter.The paper then illustrates this approach by building a small model of Romania and investigating its forecasting properties.This work was presented at a meeting of the MEET II network funded by the ACE project, Econometric Inference into the Macroeconomic dynamics of East European Economies.     

浅谈中国物价持续增长的原因

近年来我国物价持续上涨,其背后的原因复杂多样,政策的滞后效应、国际局势的变化、劳动力、原材料价格上涨,农副产品减产相互交错,最终造成了物价上涨的局面,为缓解物价增长,必须结合多方力量,对经济时局做出合理预测,促进经济稳定发展。     

A processual analysis of the purchasing and supply organization in transition: the impact of offshoring

Many companies have resorted to offshoring in order to reduce costs and grow their global market presence. Yet it remains unclear what impact the offshoring strategy has on the purchasing and supply organization (PSO) of these companies. In this paper the nature and type of changes offshoring organizations make within the PSO are examined, i.e. how new purchasing and supply management (PSM) structures and practices emerge, are maintained or are discarded as production operations are relocated. The processual perspective is used to analyze empirical data from a rich, in-depth case study within a global engineering company. Results suggest that in line with the law of requisite variety the PSO changes thoroughly when the company relocates its production activities through the captive offshoring mode, but does so in a more disjointed and non-linear manner than the current stage models would suggest. The offshoring process provides momentum for PSO change and influences where and how the change happens. We present five propositions for further research and conclude that offshoring provides managers with opportunities to: (i) change and influence the strategic direction of PSM in their organizations, and (ii) build viable strategies of retaining and managing knowledge and PSM competencies in global operations.     

国有企业会计信息失真的理性分析

文章以国有企业为个体研究对象,阐述了会计信息失真的表现及危害,从国有企业内部外部两大方面、多个角度系统地分析了会计信息失真的成因,并针对这些原因提出了相应的治理对策.     

A quantitative analysis of China's structural transformation

The structural transformation of China - or the reallocation of resources from the agricultural sector to the nonagricultural sector - between 1978 and 2003 was truly remarkable. We develop a two-sector neoclassical growth model to quantitatively assess the driving forces of China's recent structural transformation. In addition to the forces currently emphasized in the literature-sectoral productivity growth—we show that China's transformation was accelerated significantly by the gradual reduction in the relative size of the Chinese government. We find that the reduction in the size of the Chinese government accounted - by itself - for 15% of the reduction in the agricultural share of employment. Two mechanisms explain this: (i) in our model the lower tax rate associated with reduced intervention encouraged the accumulation of physical capital, which is produced in the nonagricultural sector; (ii) lower inefficiencies induced incomes to rise and, given our preferences, resulted in a disproportionate increase in the demand for the nonagricultural good.     

Developing a multiple-criteria decision analysis for green economy transition: a Canadian case study

ABSTRACT

Identifying planning strategies for the transition to a green economy is a formidable challenge. We proposed a novel multiple-criteria decision analysis model which can quantitatively identify the socio-economic and environmental impacts of various government and public policies. We applied the model to four practical scenarios in Canada for determining the optimal final demand that maximizes the country's GDP and employment while minimizing GHG emissions for small, short-term changes. As a result, the model suggested potential ways to simultaneously achieve a GDP growth of 2.5 billion CAD and creation of over 25,000 new jobs, and a saving of 2514 kt CO₂. As per the final demand, the electrification of domestic heating and transport should be more promoted. The proposed analysis tool will provide decision-makers with the ability to explore the design and effects of policy reforms, regulatory changes, and targeted public expenditure strategies, thereby overcoming barriers towards a green economy.     

中国石油价格风险评价研究

文章以中国石油价格为研究对象,选取6个风险因素及25个子指标构建风险评价指标体系,通过层析分析法和熵值法相结合进行综合风险评价,结果表明,我国石油价格风险处于较高级别,并有上升趋势;政治和市场因素是影响我国石油价格风险的主要指标。     

Information distortion and competitive remedies in government transfer programs: The case of ethanol

This paper reconsiders the analogy between competitive markets and the political process that is central to much of the literature on the efficiency of government transfers. The key problem is that property rights in politics are much less well defined than they are in competitive markets. As the paper outlines, obtaining accurate information about the benefits and costs of transfers is likely to be much more difficult than envisioned in the literature. Investigators, as well as general voters, often must rely on the government and competing parties for provision of information about underlying program parameters and functional relationships. We argue that politicians and the affected interest groups have incentives to limit and distort the information that is released to voters and that political competition is unlikely to be an effective counter. In developing the argument, a theoretical framework is provided and applied in a case study of the ethanol transfer. The documented efforts to disguise the actual costs and benefits of the program are important for gaining a broader understanding of the functioning and costs of government transfers in the economy.     

Multinationals,labour management and the process of reverse diffusion: A case study

This paper investigates a form of diffusion largely overlooked in the literature, namely reverse diffusion, in which practices flow from the overseas to the domestic plants. It examines the process of this type of diffusion, focussing on the role of the HQ and the way in which plant managers are influenced by management at this level. Evidence is presented from a case study of a British MNC.     

Price-wage dynamics in a transition economy: The case of Poland

In this paper we analyse the wage-price relationship of an economy in transition characterized by important structural changes. It is known (see Perron, 1989) that structural breaks in stationary time series can induce apparent unit roots. The stationarity analysis of the series employed in the present model is conducted jointly with the assumption that the breakpoint location is unknown. We follow a testing procedure recently proposed by Zivot and Andrews (1992). Cointegration analysis of wages and prices in the presence of structural breaks finds empirical evidence in favour of two cointegrating vectors involving prices and wages. Our analysis focuses on the different structural behaviour of the price-wage dynamic relationship in the short and long term; we also demonstrate the relative importance of import prices as a source of wage-price fluctuations.