Celso Furtado and the Myth of Economic Development: Rethinking Development from Exile

ABSTRACT

This article introduces two previously unpublished working papers by the Brazilian economist Celso Furtado (1920–2004). Following a brief outline of his life and ideas, the arguments in the two papers are examined, taking into account their context and place in Furtado’s evolving body of work. These two papers represent a crucial turning point in Furtado’s thinking, highlighting his critical perspective on (under)development and laying the basis for four books that he would publish in rapid sequence. We stress Furtado’s growing scepticism with the prospects for international development and global convergence, and his attempt to reimagine the meaning of development and the potential paths to development by peripheral countries. Furtado’s approach to global capitalism in these two papers shed an even more critical light on its structure and evolution than his better-known works from the 1950s. Finally, the contemporary relevance of his ideas is illustrated by reference to their relationship with the current heterodox literature.     

Multinational firms, international trade and international telecommunications

The study analyses the determinants of international telephone, telex, telegram and leased lines communication between the United States and 46 countries. It focusses on the role of multinational firms, international trading firms and new information technologies within the framework of the theory of transaction costs.Results of the econometric estimates suggest that: (a) technological conditions of telecommunication infrastructure, i.e., international diffusion lags of new information technologies, play an important role in the explanation of international telephone and telex telecommunication flows but not in the demand for telegraph and leased lines, (b) multinational firms use international telecommunication to reduce the coordination costs and are strong customers of leased lines and telephones, but less so of telex and telegrams, (c) international trading firms exhibit less clear preferences in the use of the different media to reduce transaction costs.     

Location,internationalization and performance of firms in Italy: a multilevel approach

Competition is increasingly global. However, location still matters: often firms cluster in the same geographic areas in order to exploit locational externalities and improve their competitiveness. This article analyses how Italian firms' performance, proxied by their propensity to export, depends both on geographical and institutional context and on individual characteristics. Using a multilevel approach, we estimate and distinguish the effect of individual (firm level) and context (province level) variables on the performance of internationalized Italian firms. We show that both firms and province heterogeneity shape the results.     

Infrastructure,Multinational Affiliate Production,and the Pattern of Trade

In a two-country general equilibrium model with endogenously determined domestic and multinational firms, it is shown that public infrastructure development can have diverging implications for horizontal multinational affiliate firm production and trade, depending on the type of infrastructure invested in. Infrastructure investments with strong productive or local transport effects (i.e. schools or local roads) lead to greater domestic firm production and exports, fewer imports, and more foreign multinational affiliate firm production in the country making the investment. On the other hand, infrastructure projects that lower international trade and transaction costs (i.e. shipping ports or airports) lead to more domestic firms in both countries, a greater volume of bilateral exports in both directions, and less multinational affiliate production. Further, the effect of different types of infrastructure investment on income and welfare of the open economies is explored.     

Organizational structure, redistribution and the endogeneity of cost: Cooperatives, investor-owned firms and the cost of procurement

As an organizational type, cooperatives are in general not the dominant form of enterprise. Nevertheless, cooperatives and cooperative-like organizations do play important roles in a number of sectors, suggesting that in some circumstances they are more efficient than other business forms. This paper explores the importance of membership goals on the relative efficiency of the cooperative form of organization. The cooperative cost (and hence production efficiency) advantage is directly linked to the goal alignment between the cooperative and its members, and is influenced by the extent of income redistribution between members and the degree of rent seeking that takes place in the organization. When there is no aversion to income inequality, the members produce at their first best levels. However, as aversion to inequality rises, the production profile of the members converges to the production profile generated when the members face an IOF. Regarding rent seeking, if the more (less) efficient members are able to get their profits valued more, total output is increased (decreased). As a consequence, consumers may benefit from the lobbying that occurs inside a cooperative where the powerful members are the most efficient agents.     

Distortions,efficiency and the size distribution of firms

We develop a model of firms’ growth in which the tax and credit environments act as selection mechanisms. Such a model, parametrized and validated using a variety of data restrictions, can rationalize observations about input choices and size patterns typical of many developing countries. Using counterfactual experiments, we show that firms’ optimal responses to the tax environment are effective in reducing efficiency losses. As a consequence, tax distortions only account for 13% of the gap in output per worker between an undistorted economy and the benchmark. Credit constraints account for 44% of this gap. However, the interaction between the cost of capital and credit constraints appears to be the most important source of misallocation and can explain up to 85% of the difference in output per worker between the benchmark and first-best.     

Toward a multilateral framework for identifying national security threats posed by foreign acquisitions: with special reference to Chinese acquisitions in the United States,Canada, and Australia

This article presents a framework for differentiating between foreign acquisitions of companies that might plausibly pose a national security threat to the home country of the target acquisition and those that do not. This framework originally derives from the experience of the United States. The framework is then shown to be relevant and useful for foreign acquisitions in Canada and Australia. In each case, Chinese acquisitions of US, Canadian, or Australian firms are highlighted. The article concludes by arguing that this framework can serve as an effective nondiscriminatory basis for separating genuine from implausible national security threats from foreign acquisitions across OECD states, to include all countries around the world.     

Labour market characteristics and profitability: An econometric analysis of Hugarian exporting firms, 1986-951

This paper follows through an aspect of microeconomic restructuring in Hungary during the transition period. This restructuring brought about substantial changes in the behaviour of all economic agents. Our study combines labour market and corporate financial information to explore the effect of the quality of labour employed on the profitability of the firm. The quality of labour is measured as that portion of wage differentials that cannot be explained by a standard human capital model. The profitability of Hungarian exporting firms can be explained by economic factors during transition. In addition the quality of labour, export share, wage and bank costs, payables, receivables, foreign ownership, inventories, amortization and equity are all significant explanatory variables.     

双重网络嵌入、知识来源与跨国公司知识转移绩效的关系

利用在华跨国公司的调研数据,运用回归统计方法,实证分析了跨国公司的内、外部网络嵌入对其知识转移绩效的影响,检验了知识来源在其中的中介效应。结果表明:双重网络嵌入对跨国公司的知识转移绩效具有正向影响;知识来源在双重网络嵌入对跨国公司知识转移绩效的影响起中介作用。     

Multinational experience and the creation of linkages with local firms: evidence from the electronics industry

This paper focuses on multinational companies' creation of linkageswith local firms in the electronics industry. Evidence is drawnfrom a novel data-set, covering international operations ofthe top European and US electronics companies, over the period1984–95. Econometric tests are provided to highlight howfirms' multinational experience, measured by the extent of theirpresence in foreign countries, affects cooperative agreements,as opposed to licensing and foreign direct investments. It ishighlighted that multinationals' subsidiary accumulation hasa positive and significant impact on collaborative linkageswith local firms. This contrasts with the transaction cost viewunderlying most market-entry literature, but is consistent witha dynamic efficiency perspective which emphasises the role oflinkages in learning and knowledge accumulation and exploitation.     

High-growth versus declining firms: the differential impact of human capital and R&D

We provide evidence that both human capital and R&D increase the likelihood that a firm will be a high-growth firm in the industry. However, different from human capital, being an R&D active firm also increases the probability of substantial decline or failure, underscoring the risky nature of innovation. Quantile regression results show that, different from R&D, human capital is growth-enhancing for all firms, hence also those located in the lower quantiles of the distribution of growth rates across firms.     

The relationship between efficiency and profitability with respect to the size of firms: An empirical investigation for Austria

In this paper, an attempt is made to investigate the performance of Upper-Austrian firms by size class. Considering the six derived hypotheses, why small firms have a better performance measure, some of the hypothesis with respect to profitability and labour cost efficiency are confirmed. On average, the gross residual quota (profitability measure) of small firms is higher than the one of medium-sized and large firms. However, a similar result could not be found for the productivity development. Considering the influence of the firm size on the productivity measure, there is in three out of four cases no statistically significant influence at all and in one case the opposite result is obtained indicating the larger the firm, the higher is the productivity. In the case of labour cost efficiency, the hypothesis (the smaller the firm the lower the labour cost per employee) is clearly confirmed.     

Global imbalances and asymmetric returns to US foreign assets: fitting the missing pieces of the US balance of payments puzzle

The issue of whether the US earns a persistently higher return on its foreign direct investment (relative to returns to foreign-owned direct investment in the US) has received considerable attention but little closure in the ‘global imbalances’ debate. Measuring the rate of returns to US direct investment abroad and foreign direct investment in the US we find higher returns to US foreign direct investment relative to its foreign counterparts in the US. Given the evidence indicating higher returns to US direct investment overseas, we link the irresolution in the contemporary literature regarding the existence of these returns to the unsettled debate over the origin of global imbalances. Reviewing the macro-financial literature on global imbalances, we find a failure to acknowledge that the US current account deficit is, in part, the outcome of transnational production networks in a global economy under-pinned by dollar hegemony. Given the growth in US multinational supply chains, we argue that the US trade deficit is consistent with asymmetric returns to US direct investment and that the sustainability of these return differentials rests on the stability of the status quo.     

Entry of foreign firms and the R&D behaviour: a panel data study of domestic and foreign firms in China's manufacturing sector

Rapid globalization has resulted in increased competitive pressures. The entry of foreign firms in a host economy increases the level of competition faced by not only the domestic firms but also the existing foreign firms. We argue that domestic firms, especially in developing countries, respond to this situation by increasing their research and development (R&D) spending, whereas the foreign firms decrease their R&D spending. By making use of firm-level panel data from China's manufacturing sector, over the period 2005–2007, this paper investigates the impact of the entry of foreign firms on R&D behaviour of domestic and foreign firms. Empirical analysis, based on Tobit and Instrumental Variables Tobit regression, reveals that foreign entry increases the R&D intensity of domestic firms but its impact on R&D intensity of foreign firms is negative. The estimated results are found to be robust across balanced and unbalanced panels.     

Market thickness,sunk costs,productivity, and the outsourcing decision: an empirical analysis of manufacturing firms in France

Abstract This paper presents an empirical analysis of outsourcing behaviour by French manufacturing industries. It focuses on the effects of market thickness, sunk costs, and the productivity of firms on the outsourcing decision. I estimate a dynamic probit model where outsourcing decision is linked to past outsourcing behaviour. The results show that outsourcing is a persistent strategy adopted by large firms and suggest the presence of significant sunk costs associated with outsourcing. The results also show that market thickness reduces search costs and enhances the establishment of outsourcing relationships.     

Cultural differences,insecure property rights and the mode of entry decision

We develop a theory of a multinational corporation’s optimal mode of entry in a new market. The foreign firm can choose between a licensing agreement, a wholly owned subsidiary or shared control (joint venture). In an environment in which property rights are insecure, opportunism is possible, and the identification of new business opportunities is costly, we show that the relationship between the quality of the institutional environment and the mode of entry decision is non-monotonic. Licensing is preferred if property rights are strictly enforced, while a joint venture is chosen when property rights are poorly enforced. For intermediate situations, the better use of local knowledge made possible by shared control under a joint venture works as a double edged sword. On the one hand, it makes the monitoring activity of the multinational more credible, on the other it offers insurance to both parties, potentially compromising the incentives faced by the local partner. We are grateful to the Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano for providing financial support. For useful comments we would like to thank Klaus Desmet, Cecilia Testa, Henry Wan and Gerald Willmann and seminar participants at Cornell, Ente Luigi Einaudi, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Kiel, Milano, Universidad de Sao Paolo, the Midwest International Economics Meetings in Indianapolis, SAET VI conference in Rhodes, and the City University of Hong Kong Conference on Intellectual Property Rights.     

Spillovers and absorptive capacity in the decision to innovate of Spanish firms: the role of human capital

This paper investigates whether the existence of knowledge spillovers and the capacity of firms to assimilate them, which we relate with R&D intensity and some human resource management practices, are associated with the decision to innovate of Spanish firms. In order to do this, we employ data from the ‘Central de Balances’ database, which covers both manufacturing and services firms during the period 2003–2007, and use an estimator proposed by Wooldridge [2005. Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity. Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, no. 1: 39–54] for dynamic random effects discrete choice models. The empirical exercise provides evidence on the positive link between spillovers and the innovative behaviour of companies, not just for the knowledge generated in the same industry, but also for that generated in the same region or by the public sector. Moreover, this link is stronger for those firms with a higher capacity to absorb those spillovers. This ability not only works through firms’ R&D capabilities, but also through factors such as the quality of the labour force, the share of temporary employment and the amount of resources spent in training. In addition to these factors, we find that innovation performance exhibits a high degree of inertia. Further, some other observed firm characteristics, such as size, sales growth, export behaviour, sector capital intensity or financial structure variables, are also found to be relevant determinants of the likelihood of innovation.     

Confucianism and the Legalism: A model of the national strategy of governance in ancient China

The Confucian school emphasizes family value, moral persuasions, and personal relations. Under Confucianism, there is a free-rider issue in the provision of efforts. Since national officials are chosen through personal relations, they may not be the most capable. The Legalist school emphasizes the usage of incentives and formal institutions. Under the Legalism, the ruler provides strong incentives to local officials which may lead to side effects because some activities are noncontractible. The cold-blood image of the Legalism may alien citizens. By exploiting the paternalistic relationship between the ruler and the ruled under Confucianism and the strength of institution-building under the Legalism, the ruler may benefit from a combination of Confucianism approach and the Legalism approach as the national strategy of governance. As each strategy has its pros and cons, which strategy of is optimal depends on factors such as the minimum enforceable level of public service and the level of institution building costs.