Using ski industry response to climatic variability to assess climate change risk: An analogue study in Eastern Canada

To accurately characterize the ski industry's risk to future climate change and varied quality of snow conditions, it is important to assess how the industry has managed and adapted to contemporary anomalously warm ski seasons. This is the first temporal climate change analogue study to use higher resolution daily performance data at the individual ski area scale, including reported snow quality, ski lift operations, slope openings, and water usage for snowmaking. The record warm winter of 2011–2012 in the Ontario ski tourism market (Eastern Canada) is representative of projected future average winter conditions under a mid-century, high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), which was compared to the 2010–2011 season which was climatically normal (for the 1981–2010 period). Supply-side impacts across the 17 ski areas during the analogue winter included a total average decrease in the ski season length (−17% days), operating ski lifts (−3%), skiable terrain (−9%), reduced snow quality (e.g., -46% days with packed powder), snowmaking days (−18%), and an increase in water usage for snowmaking (e.g., +300% in December). Demand-side impacts include a 10% decrease in overall skier visits, with a resort size-correlation (small −20%, intermediate −14%, large −8%). With reduced operational ski terrain and more frequent marginal snow conditions, visitor experience is adversely affected more frequently. Collectively, these findings identify differential impacts in the ski tourism market and can assist ski area managers, communities, investors and governments with developing climate change adaptation plans.     

Convinced,ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change

Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners, annoyed deniers, ambivalent optimists, convinced wait-and-seers. Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level.     

Ski tourism in a warmer world: Increased adaptation and regional economic impacts in Austria

Climate change risk has gained considerable attention within the ski industry and its investors. Several past studies have overlooked the adaptive capacity of snowmaking and within-season demand variation and therefore overestimated climate change impacts. This study of the Austrian ski market (208 ski areas) including snowmaking found impacts are substantial and spatially highly differentiated, but nonetheless manageable (season length losses of 10–16%) for the majority of ski areas until the 2050s under a high emissions pathway (RCP 8.5) or even the 2080s in a low emission pathway (RCP 4.5). The economic impacts of reduced operations are largely concentrated in regions less dependent on tourism. Preserving this sector in high-risk areas can be considered maladaptive, but may be important to maintain demand. A sustainable end-of-century future for a high proportion of Austria's ski areas is dependent on achieving the low-emission future set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.     

Can the North American ski industry attain climate resiliency? A modified Delphi survey on transformations towards sustainable tourism

As global temperatures increase, does accelerating climate change represent an existential crisis or a manageable challenge for the ski industry? Despite considerable evidence demonstrating the global ski industry is in the early stages of a climate-induced transition, global research on ski industry stakeholder perspectives shows varied levels of climate risk awareness, a focus on future vulnerability, and limited engagement in adaptation. Within North America, research has focussed on the physical climatic impacts to ski operations and possible skier responses, yet there lacks insight into industry perceptions on current and future climate vulnerability. This study fills this important knowledge gap using a Delphi survey to engage 52 leaders from across the continent in a dialogue on strategic climate responsiveness. Results demonstrate North American ski industry leaders’ climate risk perceptions range widely, and opinions diverge over if or how to respond at both an industry and destination scale. Simultaneously, industry experts believe mountain tourists increasingly value nature-based activities, place-bound products, and corporate responsibility. Analysing industry leaders’ responses through Enlightened Stakeholder theory highlights how aligning supply-side environmental management with demand-side tourist experiences may create opportunities for new partnerships, innovations, policies, and strategies needed to achieve climate-resilient and sustainable futures.     

Does artificial snow production pay under future climate conditions? – A case study for a vulnerable ski area in Austria

The prospects of increasing temperatures, a growing frequency of snow scarce winter seasons and rising energy prices raise questions about the future profitability of snowmaking. Therefore, we carry out a cost–revenue analysis of snowmaking based on projected daily snowmaking hours and visitor numbers until 2050 for a case study site in Austria. The results show that ski area operators are at risk of facing a substantial increase in total energy costs due to expected rising electricity costs, although the total amount of snowmaking hours is projected to slightly decrease because of shrinking feasible time for snowmaking (considering current snowmaking infrastructure). In the long run ski visitor numbers are projected to decline due to decreasing overall snow depths. Overall, the profitability analysis of skiing operations reveals that price increases in ski lift tickets, slightly higher than observed in the recent past, will be inevitable in order to keep skiing operations profitable in future.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism in the Swiss Alps

This paper examines the impacts of three consecutive snow-deficient winters at the end of the 1980s on the winter tourism industry in Switzerland. It is shown that ski areas in lower areas suffered severe consequences. Ski areas at higher altitudes (in particular glacier ski resorts) on the other hand increased their transport figures and therefore profited from the lack of snow in lower areas. The snow-reliability of all Swiss ski fields under current climate conditions and under a 2"C warming are investigated. Under current climate conditions 85% of all Swiss ski areas are snow-reliable. This number would drop to 63% if temperatures were to rise by 2"C. This is likely to threaten the regionally balanced economic growth which winter tourism has provided. Possible strategies for the winter tourism industry to adopt if climate change occurs are presented.     

Understanding tourism leaders’ perceptions of risks from climate change: an assessment of policy-making processes in the Maldives using the social amplification of risk framework (SARF)

Coastal tourism destinations are highly vulnerable to climate change risks, including sea-level rise, inundation, and extreme weather events. While such risks pose major challenges to the sustainability of these destinations, they have been insufficiently examined in tourism research. This study uses the social amplification of risk framework as a basis for understanding how climate change risks are perceived and what processes lead to an amplification or attenuation of risk perceptions at management and governance levels. In the context of the extremely low-lying Maldives, 12 leading tourism stakeholders, including representatives of government, industry, and NGOs, were interviewed to gather empirical data on risk perceptions. Results indicate that, while climate change risks are amplified for international audiences, several factors lead to an attenuation of risks for domestic audiences. As a result, local tourism stakeholders are not immediately concerned, and adaptation measures are woefully inadequate to cope with future climate risks. Detailed reference is made to the policy inertia found, the conflicts inherent in playing down risk in order to attract jobs, profitable tourism investment and tourists, and the equally pressing need to stress risks in order to attract expertise and funds to enable adaptation policies to be designed and funded.     

Have Australia's tourism strategies incorporated climate change?

Tourism is widely acknowledged as a key contributor to climate change, but it remains unclear how the tourism industry has been planning for climate change in practice. This paper conducts the most comprehensive critical review of Australia's tourism policy and planning documents to date. The paper explores the complex challenges posed by climate change to tourism and how tourism policy has been adapting over a 15-year period. Drawing on a longitudinal data-set of 477 Australian tourism policy and planning documents at the national, state, regional and local level, this research analyses the strategic discourse on climate change using content analysis and bibliometrics. The findings reveal opportunities, challenges and strategies for the tourism industry to contribute to the sustainable management of climate change. Opportunities include developing more “green” products, while strategies include establishing and/or participating in collaborative climate change schemes and strengthening dialogue surrounding climate change to aid the implementation of sustainable practices. Future research should consider the broader policy-making environment, such as the stakeholders, power and interest dynamics when analysing tourism strategies in relation to climate change.     

Future climate change risk in the US Midwestern ski industry

Climate change is an evolving business reality in the ski industry, with recent trends toward shorter ski seasons and emerging climate risk disclosure requirements. Climate change impacts under low- to high-emission futures are examined at 99 ski areas in the American Midwest market with snowmaking. Mid-century season losses range from −25% in a low-emission scenario (SSP245), to −29% under moderate-emissions (SSP370), and − 38% with high-emissions (SSP585). Depending on demand response, utilization intensity could increase between 23 and 40% from the current 4.8 skiers/per acre-day with implications for crowding and visitor experience at ski areas still in operation. Highlighting the importance of low-emission futures, by late-century, transformational impacts in high-emission scenarios would largely eliminate this regional market. The results are compared with previous studies that neglected snowmaking as a climate risk management strategy and thereby substantially overestimated the impact of mid-century and low-emission scenarios.     

Identifying and evaluating adaptation strategies for cruise tourism in Arctic Canada

The cruise tourism industry in Arctic Canada has recently grown rapidly with stable numbers now emerging. While there are many socio-economic opportunities associated with growth, climate change, and environmental, technical and cultural risks also present significant management challenges. To enhance understanding of these opportunities and risks, this study adopted a policy Delphi approach to identify and evaluate potential adaptation strategies to aid decision-makers and policy-makers managing cruise tourism development and its associated impacts. Over 500 ideas were identified. These were distilled down to 65 potential adaptation options, which were evaluated for priority and feasibility by key stakeholders including local residents, tourism operators, and policy-makers. The majority of recommendations were evaluated as of high priority and most options were perceived to be somewhat affordable and implementable. Key needs included disaster management plans, updated technology and ship navigation systems, improved marine resource mapping, and the development of a code of conduct for cruise tourists to guide visitor behaviour and promote a sustainable approach. The research represents the first empirical study to identify and evaluate adaptation strategies for cruise tourism development in Arctic Canada and outlines current priorities, opportunities, and challenges associated with managing socio-economic change in Arctic Canada in sustainable ways.     

The role of tourism management in adaptation to climate change – a study of a European inland area with a diversified tourism supply

The Carpathian Basin is one of the most vulnerable European regions in terms of potential climate change impacts on biodiversity. Its wide range of tourism activities make it uniquely suitable for assessing the effects of climate change on tourism. This research sought to create a Tourism Adaptation Portfolio (TAP) for the Szentendre micro-region in Hungary and to assemble an adaptation toolbox for current and future use by tourism organizations. The TAP contains practical, easy to implement solutions for key stakeholders in the sector by adaptation type (technology, management, behavior, education, policy). Surveys of local tourism suppliers showed that 70% said they were well informed, largely by the Internet, but 55% admitted to not knowing enough. The methodology outlined here is transferable and the process can be replicated elsewhere, supporting other regions in becoming climate-friendly tourism destinations, creating opportunities for uniquely positioning a region for consumers. The article provides a concise overview of tourism provider attitudes assessed through a questionnaire, shedding light on points of intervention, willingness to pay, main barriers and suitable adaptation instruments. The adaptive capacity of stakeholders is also discussed, which is indispensable for implementing successful practices in adaptation and maintaining the current level of environmental services.     

物候学在旅游地理理论与实践中的应用基础和前景

在20世纪80年代应用地理大发展中应运而生的旅游地理学,因发展历程尚短、理论方法体系不十分健全和完善,对持续快速发展的旅游业支撑乏力,迫切需要从相邻学科吸收养分。物候学与旅游地理学交叉性质明显,可多方面支撑其发展。本文系统梳理了物候学对旅游业的学科支撑作用、具体实践应用领域、服务于旅游业高质量发展的6个维度以及气候变化对物候旅游资源和相关行业的影响。主要结论有：（1）物候概念有助于系统整合旅游系统中自然、人文和社会要素的相关旅游资源,而物候学应用亦可有效提升区域旅游业的服务支持子系统、交通子系统以及医疗健康子系统的效用;（2）物候学在旅游业发展中的实践应用主要涉及利用植物季相进行景观设计、观赏季划分与观赏期预报、体验类生态旅游活动的时间规划、花粉浓度预报与冰雪灾情预警以及旅游线路设计五大方面;（3）物候学可在要素、行业、过程、时空、方位和部门6个维度上服务于旅游业的高质量发展;（4）物候旅游资源和相关产业对于气候变化响应敏感,相关研究人员在未来应注重气候变化对其的风险影响研究,深入分析游客感知、行为反应所受影响,并积极参与中长期产业发展规划以及行业报告编制。从学科发展和产业应用的角度讲,物候学可为旅游学的研究提供自然科学的理论支撑,也为当今气候变化背景下旅游业的可持续发展提供科学指导。     

Sustainable tourism planning and climate change adaptation in the Alps: a case study of winter tourism in mountain communities in the Dolomites

A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is extremely sensitive to climate change. Winter tourism is closely related to climate variations, especially in mountain regions where resorts are heavily dependent on snow. This paper explores how to effectively integrate a climate change adaptation perspective with local discourses about sustainability and tourism, an increasing priority for policy-makers in the region and elsewhere. It reports on the development and application of a participatory decision support process for the analysis of adaptation strategies for local development of an Alpine tourism destination, Auronzo di Cadore (Dolomites, Italy). This experience significantly contributed to the idea that an efficient combination of modelling capabilities, decision support tools, and participatory processes can substantially improve decision-making for sustainability. The authors show that, in this case study, such a combination of methods and tools allowed for managing the involvement of local actors, stimulating local debates on climate change adaptation and possible consequences on winter tourism, encouraging creativity and smoothing potential conflicts, and easing the integration of the qualitative knowledge and the preferences of the involved actors with quantitative information. This contributed to an integrated sustainability assessment of alternative strategies for sustainable tourism planning.     

Tourism strategies and climate change: rhetoric at both strategic and grassroots levels about growth and sustainable development in Finland

This paper explores how global issues such as climate change are taken into account in tourism strategy texts and contrasts these findings with how the issue is seen at the grassroots level by local businesses. We analyse how both levels approach adaptation to climate change. Using Boltanski and Thévenot's six common “worlds” of justification model for debates on public issues, we analyse the rhetoric of national, regional, and local tourism strategies in Finland and then explore how the rhetoric is employed by interviewing 42 local tourism actors. The strategy analysis shows that strategic documents do not simply describe situations but are active in creating and shaping future development, and how different kinds of “orders of worth” are used, to establish acceptable “universal truths” to shape through consensus how tourism actors think about the sector's future. Results show that at a strategic level, climate change issues are dealt with in an abstract manner, concentrating on the viewpoints of markets and industry, while ecological justification is lacking, and lacks urgency. Operational instructions are not provided for the entrepreneurs. The actors’ interviews show that structural changes in the sector are demanded but both tourism growth and nature's survival are taken for granted.     

Responding to Climate Change: Australian Tourism Industry Perspectives on Current Challenges and Future Directions

Like other destinations in the Asia Pacific region, Australia's tourism industry is vulnerable to the impacts and implications of climate change. The country's reliance on its natural “product”, which is potentially under threat, coupled with the potential for changing consumer demand patterns, particularly in long-haul markets, should be concerning for the tourism industry. Yet, the tourism industry has been criticised for its short-term, profit orientation and lack of action regarding climate change [Hall, C.M., & Higham, J. (Eds.) (2005). Tourism, recreation and climate change. Clevedon: Channel View Publications; Jenkins, K., & Nicholls, S. (2010). The impacts of climate variability and potential climate change on tourism business in Torbay, England and implications for adaptation. Tourism Analysis, 15(1), 17–30; Viner, D. (2006). Tourism and its interactions with climate change. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 317–415]. However, little empirical research has investigated the tourism industry's perspectives regarding climate change, neither the relative importance of climate change vis-a-vis other challenges facing the sector nor the strategies and actions required by the tourism industry to facilitate adaptation and mitigation strategies. It is against this background that a qualitative study was undertaken with expert representatives from both the public and private sectors of Australia's tourism industry to explore the industry's perspectives on current challenges and future directions with regards to climate change. The findings show that while the industry is aware of the importance of climate change, it is not seen as a pressing issue, particularly in light of the global economic crisis, and there has been little action by the industry in response to climate change. Respondents noted that the tourism industry is largely relying on, and waiting for, government intervention and leadership for the sector with regards to climate change.     

Climate change in Northern Sweden: intra-regional perceptions of vulnerability among winter-oriented tourism businesses

Climate change is a potential threat to society and business. Although research has noted that the tourism sector may be robust on the macro scale, significant losses at local levels have been suggested. This paper examines Upper Norrland, in Northern Sweden, by measuring the perceptions of winter-oriented tourism entrepreneurs. Their perceptions of potential threats from climate change are assessed, including how entrepreneurs view the future, in terms of climate change impacts and sustainability of the region as a winter-tourism destination. A quantitative survey of entrepreneurs (n = 63) gave responses along geographical and operator dimensions to reveal local differences within the Upper Norrland region, showing the coastland to be perceived as more exposed to change than inland areas. Venue-based businesses see climate change as a higher priority than activity-based, potentially mobile, businesses, regardless of their location. The general perception among businesses is that climate change will not drastically impact the tourism sector over the next 10 years. A basic model for mapping local differences is outlined to stimulate further study of the under-researched intra-regional nuances in climate change and tourism research. A case is made for regional planners to use this tool and to educate local businesses on adaptation techniques.     

Interactions between climate change and the tourism sector: Multiple-criteria decision analysis to assess mitigation and adaptation options in tourism areas

Tourism is one of the most climate-sensitive economic sectors, but also a contributor to climate change. With the effects of climate change becoming an increasing concern, the tourism sector must urgently and realistically respond by mitigating its emissions and adapting tourism businesses and destinations to the changing climate conditions. This work presents a generic methodological framework to plan, manage and implement climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the tourism context. The methodological scheme is based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for prioritizing available options applicable to a defined tourism area. The proposed framework is implemented for Greece, one of the world's most popular tourism destinations, and optimally ranks 18 mitigation and 16 adaptation measures under 4 criteria i.e. environmental benefit, applicability, cost and social acceptance. The analysis indicates that rational energy use, improvement of energy efficiency and water management/saving measures should be primarily put forward for the Greek case.     

The vulnerability of destinations to climate change: A comparative analysis of contextual socio-political factors

Climate change affects tourism and tourism affects climate change. Thus, both adaptation and mitigation strategies are needed to guarantee the sustainability of destinations. As well as the direct impacts of climate change, the effectiveness of these strategies determines the vulnerability of destinations. This paper compares the Riviera Maya (Mexican Caribbean) and Alt Maresme (Spanish Mediterranean) to identify the contextual socio-political factors that influence the vulnerability of destinations to climate change. Thirty-six semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders from tourism and the environment, public organizations, NGOs, and different levels of the public administration at both destinations. This research focuses on the perception of risk and agenda setting, the stakeholders’ involvement and the limitations of public action. The results show that awareness is greater, climate change is more important to the tourism agenda and private organizations are more involved in the Riviera Maya than in Alt Maresme. Five socio-political aspects are identified and discussed to explain the results: the destination’s evolution; the characteristics and evolution of tourism policy; extreme meteorological events as breaking points for policies; the socioeconomic context and the dependence on tourism; and the characteristics of the tourism offer, such as the dependence on natural resources and seasonality.     

Behavioural adaptation to climate change among winter alpine tourists: an analysis of tourist motivations and leisure substitutability

Understanding market responses to climate change impacts has important implications for the sustainability of Australia's winter tourism destinations. Utilising a framework incorporating push–pull tourist motivations and the theory of leisure substitutability, this study sought to explore how winter tourists in Australia will adapt to changes in snow cover in Australia's alpine regions under future climate change scenarios. The results of a questionnaire completed by 231 respondents indicated that tourist motivations were related to behavioural adaptation, and that there is a general preference among the current winter market for spatial substitution in the event of poor snow. Those motivated by recreation specialisation or snow-related attributes were likely to opt for spatial substitution, while tourists motivated by self-expression and après ski activities displayed resilience to poor snow conditions. The results demonstrate a clear division between leisure-driven tourists who valued participation in sport, and experience-driven tourists, who displayed higher resilience to reduced snow under projected climate change scenarios. These results have practical implications for winter tourism destinations, both in terms of targeting experience-driven tourists in the case of reduced snow as well as the longer term sustainability and viability of winter tourism destinations.     

Climate Change and Tourism: An Overview

This paper presents an overview of the relationship between tourism and global climate change. On the one hand, the tourism industry may be one of the greatest economic victims of climate change. Yet, on the other hand, the broader tourism sector is also a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. This study traces the evolution of academic interest in tourism and climate change. Growth in this area has tracked growth in interest in climate change in general, with tourism-related papers representing consistently about 0.5% of the published research on climate change.