Stylised features of consumer price setting behaviour in Portugal: 1992–2001

This paper identifies the empirical stylized features of consumer price setting behavior in Portugal using two micro-datasets underlying the consumer price index. The main conclusions are: one in every four prices change each month; there is a considerable degree of heterogeneity in price setting practices; prices of goods change more often than prices of services; price reductions are common, as they account to around 40% of total price changes; price changes are, in general, sizeable; finally, the price setting patterns seem to depend on the level of inflation as well as on the type of outlet.

Asymmetric farm–retail price transmission and market power: a new test

A finite mixture model is used to estimate farm–retail price transmission in the US fresh strawberry market. Results suggest two distinct pricing regimes associated with off- and peak-harvesting seasons. The market power parameter is significant in the peak-harvest regime, but not in the off-peak regime. Moreover, price changes are transmitted completely throughout the marketing channel in the off-peak regime when the market power parameter is zero, but not in the peak-harvest regime when the market power parameter is positive. This suggests that produce buyers are more apt to exercise market power when farm supplies are abundant than when they are scarce, and that the exercise of such power causes the farm–retail price linkage to become asymmetric.     

Do German renewable energy resources affect prices and mitigate market power in the French electricity market ?

Several empirical studies show that renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, typically supplied at low marginal cost, can cause electricity market prices to fall. Recent theoretical research and simulations also highlight the link between the integration of renewable energy and market performance in an oligopolistic energy market. This article looks at these dynamics in the context of cross-border effects between two highly interconnected electricity markets, France and Germany. Using a rich panel dataset for hourly data from November 2009 to July 2015, I estimate the impact of German wind and solar power production on both prices and market power in the French wholesale market. The findings highlight the importance of coordinating energy policies via joint renewable energy support schemes among interconnected European electricity markets.     

Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974–1992)

Using Vector Error-Correction (VEC) model estimation on monthly data from Morocco for the period January 1974 to December 1992, this article tests the hypothesis that there is a long-run stable relationship between the official and the black-market exchange rates for US dollars. We also examine the short-run dynamics in the relationship between the two markets. The econometric results indicate that the two exchange rates are cointegrated. Furthermore, we reject weak exogeneity in the case of the official exchange rate, but fail to reject it in the case of the black-market rate. Granger causality tests show that the black-market rate causes the official exchange rate. The results seem to support the efficiency hypothesis, suggesting that participants in the black-market are able to anticipate changes in the official exchange rate. The findings also suggest that Morocco's decision (in January 1993) to introduce only current account convertibility and keep controls on capital accounts was wise.     

Labour misallocation in China: 1980–2010

This article measures labour misallocation in Chinese provinces over the period 1980–2010 and investigates possible causal factors of the misallocation. It finds that: (1) labour misallocation fell substantially in the first half of 1980s, but there was no monotonic trend of improvement since then. (2) Wage differentials cross primary, secondary and tertiary sectors accounted for a substantial portion of measured overall labour misallocation; the secondary sector’s wage deviations from value of the marginal product of labour (VMPL) also contributed to labour misallocation. (3) There was persistence in labour misallocation, but a higher level of urbanization, the development of the tertiary sector, increasing trade openness and the growth of the nonstate sector appear to have contributed to more efficient labour allocation.     

Forecasting profitability and earnings: a study of the UK market (1982–2000)

An approach recently developed by Fama and French (2000 Fama, EF and French, KR. 2000. Forecasting profitability and earnings. The Journal of Business, 73: 161–75.  ) is applied to the study of whether UK company profitability is mean-reverting. A sample of roughly 987 firms per year for a period from 1982–2000 is used, drawn from Datastream. In a simple partial adjustment model convergence towards the mean at a rate of about 25% per year is found. The results are very similar in direction to those of Fama and French (2000 Fama, EF and French, KR. 2000. Forecasting profitability and earnings. The Journal of Business, 73: 161–75.  ) but the results do not display significant non-linearities. The change in profitability appears to be more strongly influenced by dividends in the UK.     

Wealth,volume and stock market volatility: case of Hong Kong (1993–2001)

This article attempts to answer the question of whether the gain and loss in property market speculations and rate of information flow play a significant role in stock market volatility in Hong Kong. To test for our wealth–volume–volatility hypothesis, two different measures of volatility: absolute (absolute value of SD from mean with monthly dimension) and conditional (EGARCH) are used and results are compared. In both measures, we find evidence of a statistical presence of a wealth effect on stock market volatility, particularly in the investment of luxury class of property in Hong Kong. To account for this result, we apply the prospect theory, house money effect and the newly developed conditional confidence theory. Although we fail to establish a volume–volatility relationship in our estimation, we offer additional dimensions to the explanation of our observation.     

The distribution of income in Sri Lanka in 1969–1970 and 1980–1981: A decomposition analysis

In 1977 the Sri Lankan government implemented a comprehensive policy of economic liberalization, removing many government controls on the economy and providing incentives for both foreign and domestic investment. The previous policies were often justified as necessary to maintain an equitable distribution of income. Income data from 1969–1970 and 1980–1981 surveys indicate that inequality has increased, but these data are shown to be unreliable for drawing conclusions on changes in the distribution of income. Expenditure data from the same surveys indicate that inequality has declined in the 1970's, both in the economy as a whole and within all sectors and ethnic groups.     

The behaviour of the US consumer price index 1913–2003: a study of seasonality in the monthly US CPI

This article analyses the seasonality in the monthly consumer price index (CPI) over the period January 1913 to December 2003. We examine three types of month effects: if the mean of monthly CPI changes of the entire data set, and of a given month were significantly different from zero; if the mean of monthly CPI changes of a given month was different from the mean of the other months; and if the variance of the monthly CPI changes for a given month was different from the variance of the other months. The mean of monthly CPI changes for the entire data set (0.27%) was found to be significantly greater than zero. The means of monthly changes show a downward trend from September to December. When the data are sliced into three sub-periods, we find an increasing trend in the means and medians of monthly changes but a decreasing trend in the SDs of the monthly changes. The mean of monthly CPI changes during the republican presidencies (0.15%) was significantly lower than during the democratic presidencies (0.38%).     

A note on the exchange market pressure: the Korean experience, 1980–1987

This paper applies the exchange market pressure (EMP) model to Korea under a managed floating exchange rate. We show that the EMP model is superior to one concentrating solely on foreign reserve or exchange rate changes. Given that the balance of paymnets in Korea experienced a drastic turn to surplus during the estimated period, we checked the stability of the coefficients. The results show that the coefficients have remained stable.     

Macroeconomic policy and aggregate fluctuations in a semi-industrialized open economy: Greece 1951–1980

In this paper we model the effects of macroeconomic policy in a semi-industrialized open economy. Greece is our case, but the model could apply to other similar economies with tightly controlled financial markets and comprehensive foreign exchange restrictions, where both the exchange rate and interest rates are administered prices. The model consists of three equations which determine output, the price level and the trade balance. It is largely non-Keynesian, but, through the real exchange rate, it allows for anticipated monetary policy to affect real output. The model is estimated by FIML and its various restrictions cannot be rejected. A policy simulation suggests that even Friedman's x% money growth rule would ensure greater macroeconomic stability in the 1970s than the monetary policy that was actually followed.     

Consumer Boycotts: Does Trust in Law-Making and Law-Enforcing Institutions Matter?

This article estimates the effects of trust in political and judicial institutions on individuals’ propensity to take part in consumer boycotts. In particular, this study disentangles the effects of institutional trust and quality. The analysis relies on data from the 2010 European Social Survey, which is a path breaking comparative study of how justice is perceived and allows a valid measure of judicial and political trust to be constructed. A two-step instrumental variable method was used to measure the effects of institutional trust, controlling for micro- and macro- level factors. The results indicate that trust in law-making institutions is negatively associated with boycott participation, whereas the relationship between judicial trust in institutions and an individual’s likelihood to boycott is U-shaped. The findings are robust to the introduction of social capital and sociodemographic variables.     

Reserve requirement, reserve requirement tax and money control in China: 1984–2007

In recent years, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) has carried out monetary policy by means of reserve requirement frequently in an effort to hedge the excess liquidity in the banking system. But just like other government taxes, reserve requirement maybe have an optimal required reserve rate (RRR). When the RRR have been raised to the optimal level, the effect of reserve requirement policy in money control and liquidity sterilization should also be withered due to the loss of the “tax base”. Therefore, we establish a theoretical model and analysis framework and make the corresponding econometric test and empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: The optimal RRR in China at present is about 23%. If the RRR is further raised above 23%, the monetary authority should adjust the deposit and loan interest rates, interest margins between deposits and loans and the deposit reserve requirement rate to expand the using scope of the reserve requirement policy. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2008, (10): 37–51     

The Structure and Composition of India’s Exports and Industrial Transformation (1980–2000)

Abstract

This paper analyses structural change in Indian manufactured exports empirically for 143 (mainly manufacturing) industrial groupings. Trade indices such as Balassa’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index and variants are used. Detailed econometric analysis is employed to examine structural change. The stability and the process of the intertemporal evolution of the RCA indices is considered. Three technology categories (high technology, medium technology and low technology) are analysed individually. Our results point towards substantial industrial restructuring in manufactured exports. We find evidence of despecialisation within India’s manufactured exports for the time period studied, which is consistent with increasing specialisation in a subset of manufactured exports.     

Changes in carbon intensity in China: Empirical findings from 1980–2003

China experienced sustainable, rapid economic growth over the period 1980–2003 but, at the same time, energy-related carbon intensity showed a downward trend. It begs the question, therefore, what factors were driving this decline in carbon intensity and will this decline be maintained in future? Moreover, what measures can be adopted to ensure a continual decline in carbon intensity? These questions led to increased research in the factors governing CO₂ emission in China. This paper quantifies the driving force behind China's primary energy-related carbon intensity and measures the material production sectors' final energy-related carbon intensity. Our results show that the overwhelming contributor to the decline of energy-related carbon intensity was the reduction in real energy intensity. However, policies that focus only on the decline in energy intensity are insufficient to further decrease carbon intensity. The change of primary energy mix can improve the decline of carbon intensity. This should focus on the material production sectors' development strategies and final energy use. Greater emphasis should be given to secondary industry, which needs national and regional governments' policy support.     

Innovation spending and productivity growth in the German economy 1980–1986

A newly developed technique involving vertically integrated input-output sectors is used to examine the relationship between labour productivity and innovation expenditures in the German economy during the period 1980 to 1986. The productivity measures used, dubbed Harrod-Robinson-Read (HRR), take into account the direct and indirect labour used in each consumption goods sector. Included in these measures is the labour content of new capital investment.

The HRR measures show higher rates of productivity growth in most sectors, compared to the simple direct labour requirements measures. This is due to the fact that the HRR measures take into account the increased efficiency with which new capital is produced. The second part of the study examines the relationship between labour productivity and innovation expenditures as measured by the IFO (Institute for Economic Research – Munich) innovation survey. Using cross section data for 58 German industries, a strong correlation was found between direct labour productivity growth and direct innovation expenditure.

These results suggest that with more detailed capital expenditure data it should be possible to describe more precisely the relationships between innovation activity, spending on new capital, and productivity changes. The key to examining these relationships in more detail is the growing wealth of information contained in recent innovation surveys such as those done by the IFO.     

Regional Integration and Intra-industry Trade in Latin America, 1980–90

The decade of the 1980s saw profound changes in the political economy of Latin America. The stabilisation and debt crises forced many countries in the region to re-examine their economic policies individually as well as collectively. The consequence was both a movement in the direction of neoliberal reform that included an emphasis on export promotion as well as a revival of interest in regional integration. The specific purpose of the present paper is to examine the consequences of these changes for the structure of intra-regional trade among and between Latin American countries. More specifically, we are interested in assessing the region's performance in terms of intra-regional, intra-industry trade over the period 1980–90.     

The (Over)Cost of Capital: Financialization and Nonfinancial Corporations in France (1961–2011)

ABSTRACT

The term ‘financialization’ is often used to describe the major changes that occurred in the macroeconomic regimes of most developed and, to a lesser extent, emerging economies since the beginning of the 1980s. In the present paper, we propose a reappraisal of the notion of the cost of capital and subsequently argue that financialization in France has increased the cost of capital for nonfinancial corporations with new standards of financial profitability. We introduce a measurement for what could be called the over-cost of capital and describe how the evolution of this additional financial burden may explain the slowdown in the pace of capital accumulation, and thus the drop in French macroeconomic performance observed for the past 30 years.     

Conscientious vs. ambivalent consumers: Do concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour?

Energy availability and climate change are interrelated concerns with economic components. They need to be addressed by policy makers and they require changes in energy consumption. This study examines whether concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour, policy perceptions, and beliefs about future energy consumption. This question is investigated by analysing data from the Eurobarometer 75.4, a comprehensive survey of citizens from all countries of the European Union that was conducted in June 2011 (n = 26,840). The regression results show that people concerned about climate change were significantly more likely to take action to mitigate climate change, and to be more favourably disposed towards energy policies and future changes in energy consumption, than people who were not concerned about climate change. On the other hand, people who were concerned about energy availability undertook fewer actions and neither supported energy policies nor believed in future changes in energy consumption. This surprising finding raises questions regarding the adequate communication of energy availability and policies to the public in the European Union.     

Welfare effects of quality change and new products in the Japanese mobile telecommunications market: 1995–2001

This paper presents a simple framework based on a discrete choice model to assess the welfare effects of quality change and new products. Such a framework is shown to be useful where the hedonic approach is impracticable. This framework is applied to the Japanese mobile telecommunications market during the period 1995–2001. The estimated qualities for mobile telecommunications services in Japan are shown to have improved rapidly during this period, indicating the importance of quality change in the welfare gains of consumers relative to price change, and the need to adjust quality change in the construction of price indexes. However, it is also proven, at least in the earliest stages, that the effect of new services on consumer welfare was limited.