The impacts of climate change on tourist mobility in mountain areas

This study investigates the effects of climate change on tourist mobility in mountain areas, distinguishing between infrastructure, transport operation and travel demand. We examine change in tourist travel demand by proposing a two-step approach to forecast its future development. A multi-origin, multi-destination model for tourism demand quantifies the variation in overnight stays within a given region, and a linear, deterministic model determines the traffic-related implications. The method, tested on the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol (Italy), exhibits expected variations in winter and summer travel demand up to 2080 under different scenarios. Results reveal that average summer traffic can be more than twice as intense as average winter traffic, contributing to significantly increasing the peak days of congestion along the Provincial road network. Despite this evidence, all stakeholders seem to be at an early stage in incorporating this information into their strategic planning. The need for adequate transport policies and measures is considered essential to obtain the optimal balance of transport modes that will be required in the near future.     

Sustainable tourism planning and climate change adaptation in the Alps: a case study of winter tourism in mountain communities in the Dolomites

A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is extremely sensitive to climate change. Winter tourism is closely related to climate variations, especially in mountain regions where resorts are heavily dependent on snow. This paper explores how to effectively integrate a climate change adaptation perspective with local discourses about sustainability and tourism, an increasing priority for policy-makers in the region and elsewhere. It reports on the development and application of a participatory decision support process for the analysis of adaptation strategies for local development of an Alpine tourism destination, Auronzo di Cadore (Dolomites, Italy). This experience significantly contributed to the idea that an efficient combination of modelling capabilities, decision support tools, and participatory processes can substantially improve decision-making for sustainability. The authors show that, in this case study, such a combination of methods and tools allowed for managing the involvement of local actors, stimulating local debates on climate change adaptation and possible consequences on winter tourism, encouraging creativity and smoothing potential conflicts, and easing the integration of the qualitative knowledge and the preferences of the involved actors with quantitative information. This contributed to an integrated sustainability assessment of alternative strategies for sustainable tourism planning.     

Ski tourism in a warmer world: Increased adaptation and regional economic impacts in Austria

Climate change risk has gained considerable attention within the ski industry and its investors. Several past studies have overlooked the adaptive capacity of snowmaking and within-season demand variation and therefore overestimated climate change impacts. This study of the Austrian ski market (208 ski areas) including snowmaking found impacts are substantial and spatially highly differentiated, but nonetheless manageable (season length losses of 10–16%) for the majority of ski areas until the 2050s under a high emissions pathway (RCP 8.5) or even the 2080s in a low emission pathway (RCP 4.5). The economic impacts of reduced operations are largely concentrated in regions less dependent on tourism. Preserving this sector in high-risk areas can be considered maladaptive, but may be important to maintain demand. A sustainable end-of-century future for a high proportion of Austria's ski areas is dependent on achieving the low-emission future set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.     

Assessing the temporal stability of the ecotourism evaluation scale: testing the role and value of replication studies as a reliable management tool

Developing scales is a critical step in monitoring and evaluating ecotourism to ensure sustainability. Replicating studies to test if scales are enduring in evaluating visitors’ assessments of ecotourism is also essential to ensure reliability and credibility, and to track changes. This paper reports on a sample of 404 international visitors in Nepal's Annapurna Conservation Area, undertaken in 2012, to test for scale stability and change from a 2006 survey. The original scale was cross-validated by confirmatory factor analysis, and then mean-level change and rank-order stability of scale items were reported. There was strong support for the original factor model in the new sample; all items were loaded on a single construct; their loadings were statistically significant, the root-mean-square error of approximation was .076, the comparative fit index was .993, and the non-normed fit index was .987. Although a statistically significant decrease in the mean of scale items was found, the items’ rank-ordering remained similar. The Spearman's rank-order correlation between factor loadings of 2006 and 2012 was .714 and statistically significant. Cronbach's alpha was .845, comparable to the previous alpha of .910. The ecotourism evaluation scale showed temporal consistency but also detected changes in visitors’ attitudes requiring management attention.     

Interactions between climate change and the tourism sector: Multiple-criteria decision analysis to assess mitigation and adaptation options in tourism areas

Tourism is one of the most climate-sensitive economic sectors, but also a contributor to climate change. With the effects of climate change becoming an increasing concern, the tourism sector must urgently and realistically respond by mitigating its emissions and adapting tourism businesses and destinations to the changing climate conditions. This work presents a generic methodological framework to plan, manage and implement climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the tourism context. The methodological scheme is based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for prioritizing available options applicable to a defined tourism area. The proposed framework is implemented for Greece, one of the world's most popular tourism destinations, and optimally ranks 18 mitigation and 16 adaptation measures under 4 criteria i.e. environmental benefit, applicability, cost and social acceptance. The analysis indicates that rational energy use, improvement of energy efficiency and water management/saving measures should be primarily put forward for the Greek case.     

Global trends in length of stay: implications for destination management and climate change

Abstract

Length-of-stay (LOS) is a key parameter in destination management that determines the number of guest nights relative to arrival numbers, with concomitant repercussions for revenue generation and other performance indicators. This article investigates the development of LOS for 32 destinations in developed and emerging economies as well as Small Islands and Developing States (SIDS). The analysis is based on UNWTO data for 478.5 million international tourist arrivals, or about 40% of the global total in 2015, for the years 1995–2015. Results show considerable differences in LOS between destinations, with a global trend of falling LOS, by 14.8% over the study period. However, in individual destination countries, LOS was found to be increasing. Analyses of LOS trends reveal that these can neither be explained by distance–decay relationships nor business to leisure arrival ratios. Results are discussed with regard for destination management and revenue optimisation, transport infrastructure needs, as well as sector greenhouse gas emissions.     

Motivations to engage in last chance tourism in the Churchill Wildlife Management Area and Wapusk National Park: the role of place identity and nature relatedness

The threat that climate change impacts pose to rare and vulnerable destinations has given rise to a phenomenon known as last chance tourism. This travel behaviour involves tourists increasingly travelling to destinations they perceive to be critically threatened, while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change impacts in these very places. For last chance destinations to be managed effectively in the face of climate change, a clearer understanding of what drives this travel behaviour is needed. Drawing on the importance of place and nature to identity construction, this research uses a structural equation modelling approach to examine last chance tourism motivations in Churchill, Canada. Results provide evidence of a motivation to engage in a last chance experience. They also indicate that this motivation is related to a desire to share a connection to nature with similar individuals, and to become part of the local story. Beyond this, results show that visitors' sense of place identity and nature relatedness contribute significantly to their motivation to engage in last chance tourism. Findings from this research are important to the management of last chance destinations, including protected areas that are legislated to preserve significant natural and cultural features.     

Computer Simulation as a Tool for Planning and Management of Visitor Use in Protected Natural Areas

The United Nations Environment Programme’s Principles on Implementation of Sustainable Tourism suggest that implementing sustainable tourism must include monitoring visitor use of protected natural areas and directing it to areas where the environmental and social impacts of tourism are minimised. Thus, sustainable tourism management requires information about the spatial and temporal flow of visitor use in protected natural areas to help identify potential tourism-related threats to the natural and cultural resources of an area and the quality of visitors’ experiences. Recent research has identified at least four ways in which simulation modelling of visitor use can facilitate more informed planning and management of sustainable tourism in protected natural areas, including (1) describing existing visitor use flows; (2) monitoring the condition of ‘hard to measure’ indicator variables; (3) testing the effectiveness of alternative visitor use management practices; and (4) guiding the design of research on public attitudes. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate, using findings from studies conducted in the Inyo National Forest and Isle Royale National Park, USA, each of these four potential contributions of computer simulation to sustainable tourism management and planning. The paper concludes with an assessment of the limitations of existing applications of computer simulation to nature-based tourism and recommendations for future research.     

Perceptions of climate change impacts,adaptation and limits to adaption in the Australian Alps: the ski-tourism industry and key stakeholders

This paper explores perceptions of ski-tourism representatives and other regional stakeholders about climate change impacts, limits to tourism development and adaptation strategies in the Australian Alps. This area faces rising temperatures, declining rain and snow falls, and shorter skiing seasons. Open-ended interviews examined the perceptions, plans and attitudes of the ski industry and those of conservation managers, local government officials and Australian researchers into tourism and/or climate change effects in the Australian Alps. All interviewees accepted climate change was a reality; several, however, questioned the worst-case scenarios. The major tourism-related adaptation strategies were snowmaking and diversifying to year-round tourism; the success of these strategies will vary according to individual resorts’ snowmaking capacity and potential summer tourism revenue. Currently non-snow-based tourism revenue is worth only approximately 30% of winter revenue. Social resistance to increased water and electricity use for snowmaking emerged as an important issue. Competition for water, including the needs of ecosystems, agriculture and fire protection in this summer-fire-prone region, and fire management issues, is a key concern. Current conflicts between the ski industry and other stakeholders over climate change adaptation call for a collaborative adaptation and change policy within the Australian Alps.     

Scenario planning for tourism management: a participatory and system dynamics model applied to the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador

This paper presents a decision-support system based on a system dynamics model designed to examine tourism management in the Galapagos Islands. A participatory approach was used to integrate the views of multiple stakeholders in the Galapagos Islands and to build an understandable, graphical representation of the impacts of tourism and residential population growth. Each subsystem is examined through hypotheses involving three scenarios of tourism growth that are associated with different residential population expansions. A number of integrative and linked social-ecological effects in our model have been shown to severely shock the natural environment of the Galapagos and saturate the capacity of several socio-economic subsystems. Major concerns of the expanding human dimension in the Galapagos are represented by (1) the growing number of introduced species that threaten the Islands’ unique natural environment, and (2) the rapid saturation of the Galapagos National Park's tourism reception capacity. The model relies upon real data to specify rules, relationships, and rates of exchange that are derived through statistical functions and/or functions specified in theory or practice. The presented decision-support system is a quantitative scenario-planning tool that can be used by policy-makers to achieve an enhanced understanding of the Galapagos Islands as a coupled human–natural system.