解析存款保险与中央银行LLR的关系

我国将建立存款保险制度已是不争的事实,但国内学术界对有关存款保险制度组织形式问题的研究还不够深入,绝大多数仅局限于对国外现有的存款保险制度的优缺点加以比较分析,或是对相关文献做一些整理综述的工作,即使有个人观点,也是描述性地加以阐述.本文借鉴不完全契约理论,从微观经济学角度出发,分析了在不同条件下,存款保险与中央银行LLR之间的关系,得到了比较有意义的结果.从方法论上讲,这与前人的工作有很大的不同.最后,根据本文模型,作者提出了对我国存款保险制度组织形式选择的个人观点,并指出模型有待进一步改进的地方.     

最后贷款人制度：设计原则与改进措施

从最后贷款人概念提出至今,西方国家对最后贷款人制度的研究已经有了200多年的历史。最后贷款人制度理论随着金融市场的变迁以及各国的实践也发生了很大的变化。本文回顾了最后贷款人制度的设计原则,包括谁来充当最后贷款人、最后贷款人的制度规则以及如何防范最后贷款人引起的道德风险等,在此基础上结合我国的现实情况提出了完善我国最后贷款人制度的若干建议。     

Financial Structure Changes and the Central Bank Policy

In a response to the financial collapse of 2007–2009, central banks overstepped their narrow role of lender of last resort (LLR) and acted as dealers or market-makers of last resort (MMLR). Such an evolution of the central bank policy stems from the endogenous process of growing securities markets, financial innovations, and market-based credit intermediation. This article examines how changes in the structure of the banking and financial system transforms the central bank policy in financial stability. It considers the separation or integration of the LLR and MMLR functions, revisits the debate opposing lend-to-market and lend-to-institution theses, and discusses the LLR standard rule and its transposition to the MMLR rule. Inasmuch as private securities markets and financial innovations determine the structure of the credit system, central banks endogenously adopt the integrated approach, so that the extensive LLR policy prevails.     

商业银行信贷风险控制要素研究

从银行信贷项目全面风险管理概念的内涵出发,构建了银行信贷项目风险控制要素的概念模型,并对银行信贷项目风险控制要素对银行信贷项目风险的影响进行了实证分析。得出如下结论：环境因素并不是银行信贷项目风险产生的主要原因,银行内部控制制度对信贷项目风险有显著影响。据此提出如下建议：中国银行业在金融风暴中应通过完善内部控制制度来加强传统信贷业务的风险管理,以保证银行业的长治久安。     

Asian Currency Crisis and the International Monetary Fund, 10 Years Later: Overview*

This paper is an overview of the Asian currency crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea in 1997–1998, with an emphasis on the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It provides a detailed account of the development of the crisis and analyses and evaluates the content of IMF advice and its consequences. The size of the IMF package for each of these three countries is judged to have been too small. This paper also has a comparative perspective; the Mexican crisis is reviewed as a precursor to the Asian crisis to see what the IMF learned, and how it prepared, for future crises. The causes of the crises and IMF conditionality for the post‐Asian crisis countries, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina, are also compared to the Asian crisis countries. By agreeing to maintain a fixed exchange rate, for example, the IMF is judged to have been “softer” in its approach to the post‐Asian crisis countries.     

货币危机与银行危机共生因子实证分析——国别比较的视角

共生危机的事实表明,货币危机与银行危机共生的现象在不同类型的国家均可能出现,而非某一类国家所特有的现象.基于对共生性货币银行危机触发机制国别差异的考察,文章在对1980～2006年间60个国家共生危机发生情况识别的基础上,分别构建了工业化国家和发展中国家共生危机生成的逐步Logistic回归模型.研究表明,工业化国家的共生危机主要是经济中各类矛盾累积的结果,发展中国家则主要源于本国制度缺陷,而采用滞后一期的变量来解释工业化国家共生危机时,效果不显著.     

我国银行卡市场发展状况与对策研究

银行卡是具有存款、取款、转账结算、消费等功能的信用支付工具。我国银行卡市场经过二十几年的发展,取得了重大成就。本文从我国银行卡市场的发展状况入手,分析了发展中存在的问题,在此基础上提出了加快我国银行卡市场快速健康发展的对策建议。     

机构投资者持股和企业银行借款关系研究

近年来,机构投资者在中国资本市场蓬勃发展。通过分析机构投资者持股变化对公司治理的影响,可以发现机构投资者持股和企业新增银行借款比例呈倒U型关系:机构投资者持股比例的增加有助于企业获得银行借款,但当机构投资者持股达到一定比例后,机构投资者持股的增加又会抑制企业银行借款的增加。机构投资者持股对于企业获取银行借款的影响依赖于持股比例的变化。     

银行信贷对三次产业增长作用的差异分析:北京例证

金融是现代经济的核心,而银行是金融体系的主体,其信贷水平往往对产业结构的调整发挥着重要作用。通过北京银行信贷对三次产业增长作用的协整分析,发现北京银行信贷对第二产业增长的贡献度大于第一产业的贡献度,而对第三产业的贡献度又大于第二产业。为继续调整优化北京区域产业结构,笔者建议:适时加大银行信贷支持力度或维持银行信贷规模;根据不同的产业实行差别化的信贷政策;优化信贷结构,提高信贷效率,倡导绿色信贷。     

欧洲中央银行货币政策透明度研究

大多数国家的央行开始摈弃隐秘性传统,其货币政策逐渐走向开放和透明。如何最充分、准确、及时地向公众披露与解释货币政策目标、策略和决策已成为多数国家货币政策操作所面临的首要问题,本文首先对欧洲中央银行在实践中所采用的主要沟通策略和工具进行归纳和介绍,然后将欧洲中央银行与世界其他主要中央银行的信息公开程度进行横向比较,最后就关于提高欧洲中央银行货币政策透明度的相关建议和争议进行评述。     

Imagining the European Economy: 'Competitiveness' and the Social Construction of 'Europe' as an Economic Space

This article analyses the political and ideological agency of an emergent European transnational capitalist class in the socioeconomic governance of the European Union (EU) by examining the case of the European Round Table of Industrialists (ERT). It seeks to show that the ERT‐as an elite forum mediating the interests and power of the most transnationalise d segments of European capital‐has played a significant role in shaping European governance in as much as it has successfully articulated and promoted ideas and concepts thathave at critical times set the political agenda and, beyond, have helped to shape the discourse within which European policy making is embedded. Here, the increasingly neoliberal orientation of the ERT reflects, and at the same time is a constitutive element within, the construction of a new European order in which governance is geared to serve the interests of a globalising transnational capitalist elite, and hence the exigencies of global 'competitiveness'. Although in recent years some detailed work has been done on the role of the ERT in the internal market programme, there has as yet been little attention paid to (and thus interpretation of) the content of the ideas promoted by the ERT and hence to the ideological power that this forum of transnational capitalists exercises. The article is divided into four main parts. The first briefly elaborates the theoretical framework that informs my analysis. Drawing upon what has come to be labelled the 'neo-Gramscian school' in International Relations (IR), I willadvance a historical materialist understanding of the dynamics of European integration, emphasising in particular the role of transnational social forces‐as engendered by the capitalist production process‐in the political and ideological struggles over European order. The second part introduces the case of the European Round Table. I will claim that the ERT is neither a simple business lobby nor a corporatist interest association, but must rather be interpreted as having developed into an elite platform for an emergent European transnational capitalist class from which it can formulate a common strategy and‐on the basis of that strategy‐seek to shape European socioeconomic governance through its privileged access to the European institutions. It is this latter role of the ERT that will be the focus of the final two parts. As such, the third presents an analysis of the evolution of ERT's strategic project and the initiating role the Round Table played in the relaunching of the integration process from Europe 1992 to Maastricht. Following this, the fourth part will analyse the ideological orientation and strategic outlook of today's Round Table and its current role in shaping what I will call the neoliberal discourse of competitiveness which, I argue, increasingly underpins European governance.     

Analyzing the role of mutual guarantee societies on bank capital requirements for small and medium-sized enterprises

This paper analyzes the impact of the guarantee provided by mutual guarantee societies (MGSs) on the risk premium that banks should charge for small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) loans under the new Basel Capital Accords (Basel II and III). We also examine whether the foreseeable decrease in the theoretical credit risk premium would be compensated by the cost of the MGS guarantee. To do so, we develop a rating system for SMEs that uses a large sample of Spanish firms over the period from 2005 to 2009. We find that the final effect of the guarantee on the SME risk premium depends on the values taken by the credit variables of the MGS (essentially, the probability of default).     

中国遭遇国际贸易摩擦的必然性与合理性研究

2008年全球性金融危机之后,贸易保护主义重新抬头,中国遭遇的国际贸易摩擦愈演愈烈。但是通过贸易理论分析和世界经济、中国经济的发展实践来看,中国遭遇国际贸易摩擦有其必然性和合理性,它是中国经济和对外贸易所处历史阶段下的必然产物,国际贸易摩擦有其存在的合理性。     

Keynes,the socialisation of trade,and international monetary institutions

While Keynes began formulating his ideas concerning the post-WWII international financial system in the early 1940s, the genesis of these ideas can be traced to his earlier work. The Keynes Plan represents the culmination of his search for adequate institutions that guide economic activity for the public good. The reasons given by Keynes for the establishment of an International Clearing Bank are relevant in the modern international economy, given the current imbalances in international trade. As Keynes argued for the socialisation of investment as a method to achieve full-employment in the domestic economy, he argued for the “socialisation of trade” as a method to achieve international economic balance among nations.     

关于中国人民银行独立性的研究--来自独立性指数和政策反应函数的证据

本文的目的在于 :(1 )根据GMT和CWN的方法 ,将中国人民银行有关法律指数化 ,并通过独立性指数的纵向和跨国家比较来分析中国人民银行在法律层面上的独立性变化和独立性程度 ;(2 )构建中国人民银行政策反应函数 (policyreactionfunction) ,并通过政策工具变量 (instrumentvariables)和政治事件虚拟变量 (dummyvariables)的变化来反映中国人民银行的实际独立性。     

“双导师”制在国际贸易中的创新应用研究

"主讲制"和校外教师"辅教制"的"双导师"制教学模式,目的在于产生"1+1>2"的协同效应。因此,对"双导师"制的意义和途径进行了论述,并认为实施"双导师"制在全面提升素质、培养实践技能、构建科学的体系等方面可以发挥非常重要的作用。     

U.S. policy in the euro crisis and the institutional deepening of the monetary union

ABSTRACT

Theoretical approaches to European integration often downplay and sometimes ignore the role of external actors. But the regime complex through which the euro crisis of 2010-2015 was prosecuted involved the United states directly and indirectly through the IMF. Tracing such external involvement shows that, although they preferred greater deepening of euro area institutions than was achieved, U.S. and IMF officials nonetheless contributed substantially to the creation of the EFSF/ESM, robust ECB action and launch of the banking union project. The conclusion formulates falsifiable expectations on which a theory of external influence in regional integration can be developed and tested.     

中国上市银行信贷行为的周期性研究

文章基于中国上市银行1998-2013年的数据,采用固定效应模型,对16家中国上市银行信贷行为的周期性进行了研究。研究表明,中国上市银行的信贷行为表现为阶段顺周期性和阶段逆周期性;银行规模对其周期性也有较大影响,规模较小银行或同一银行在规模较小阶段其信贷的逆周期性更显著。由于当前我国政府对宏观经济及银行行为的干预程度较大,银行监管当局所制定监管政策的针对性及有效性将受到很大削弱,因此文章建议政府的宏观经济调控政策与银行的监管政策必须相互协调,这是未来防范经济危机与金融危机,促进中国经济健康持续发展,保持中国金融系统稳健经营的必然选择。     

The impact of political institutions on U.S. state bond yields during crises: evidence from the 2008 credit market seizure

This study examines how political institutions mediate bond market reactions to severe economic crisis, based on U.S. states’ experience of the 2008 credit market seizure. Following severe fiscal shocks, political institutions assume greater importance in assessing risk characteristics of state bonds. The bond market reacts most strongly to two factors: public sector union strength in a state and the proportion of Democrats in the state legislature. We suggest that the identity of political institutions becomes increasingly important, during periods of economic crises, when credit markets might expect that political systems can no longer delay stabilisations and must deliver policy.     

中国商业银行信贷业务经营中的贷款定价问题研究

近年来中国商业银行信贷业务快速扩张势头尤为强劲,但与其相适应的信贷业务经营收益水平却未随之同步提高,由此凸现出信贷业务快速扩张背后贷款定价问题的困扰。提高中国商业银行的贷款定价能力,从而在信贷业务经营过程中,卡准信贷资金成本与收益的啮合点,做到信贷业务经营成本的可控性,提高信贷业务经营收益水平是解决困扰之选择。