Evolutionary macroeconomics: a research agenda

In this article, the goal is to offer a new research agenda for evolutionary macroeconomics. The article commences with a broad review of the main ideas in the history of thought concerning the determinants of economic growth and an introduction to the evolutionary perspective. This is followed by a selective review of recent evolutionary approaches to macroeconomics. These approaches are found to be somewhat disconnected. It is argued that the ‘micro-meso-macro’ approach to economic evolution is capable of resolving this problem by offering an analytical framework in which macroeconomics can be built upon ‘meso-foundations’, not micro-foundations, as asserted in the mainstream. It is also stressed that the economic system and its components are complex adaptive systems and that this complexity must not be assumed away through the imposition of simplistic assumptions made for analytical convenience. It is explained that complex economic systems are, at base, energetic in character but differ from biological complex systems in the way that they collect, store and apply knowledge. It is argued that a focus upon stocks and flows of energy and knowledge in complex economic systems can yield an appropriate analytical framework for macroeconomics. It is explained how such a framework can be connected with key insights of both Schumpeter and Keynes that have been eliminated in modern macroeconomics. A macroeconomic framework that cannot be operationalized empirically is of limited usefulness so, in the last part of the article, an appropriate methodology for evolutionary macroeconomics is discussed.     

Accounting for economic evolution: Fitness and the population method

The theme of this paper is the general population dynamics of evolutionary processes, and, in particular, a number of accounting concepts that are central to any understanding of evolutionary processes of the variation-cum-selection retention kind. A population perspective, for example, turns out to be crucial to the study of the competitive process in economic systems defined at the level of industries, sectors and markets. Business rivalry, underpinned by differential innovative activity, is the basis of the differential survival and growth of competing economic activities and the strategies deployed to create sustainable differences in competitive selection characteristics are at the core of the capitalist dynamic interpreted as an adaptive, evolutionary process. This kind of evolutionary argument is necessarily concerned with growth rate dynamics and the explanation of the diversity of growth rates across entities in a population. However, the following discussion does not provide any causal explanation of economic evolution in terms of the determinants of growth rate differences, rather it provides a bookkeeping scheme in which different causal theories may be set and compared. Growth dynamics and structural change are the two central features of variation/selection processes within populations and I explore them in terms of three themes: namely, Logistic Growth Accounting; Competition Accounting; and, the Price Theorem. The unifying theme that links all three is their relation to the population method in evolutionary theory.      

The biological hypothesis in cliometrics of growth: a methodological critique of Fogel (post 1982) and Ashraf & Galor (2013)

The resort to biological “analogies”, “metaphors” and “concepts” is an important aspect of the history of the relationships between economics and biology and has long been greatly controversial. This controversy continues today in the most recent work of three cliometricians, i.e. Fogel (post 1982) and Ashraf and Galor (2013). We focus on the theories of historical growth relying on biological explanations which have been formulated by these economists, from the specific angle of biological reductionism. We propose a methodological critique of their use of biological variables as determinants of the historical dynamics of economic growth. Based upon the transposition to the field of economics of Ernst Mayr’s distinction between functional and evolutionary biology and his definitions of reductionism, we argue that despite some similarities, the questions raised by Fogel’s and Ashraf & Galor’s theories are of distinct nature. Nonetheless, we stress the need for a careful examination of the biological mechanisms supporting these researches.     

The Economist Watcher: Economic Contributions of David Colander

ABSTRACT

This article gives an appraisal of the work of David Colander. After a brief biographical summary, we look at his work in methodology and the role that institutions and ‘vision’ play in his economic analysis. A crucial part of his work in this area is viewing not only the economy but also the economic profession as an adaptive complex system. This leads us to his major contributions to macroeconomics and economic education. We conclude with an overall assessment of his contributions to economics.     

区域发展趋势和科学评价体系

The report is a summing-up on the new trends, new characteristics, and new frame-work emerged in the regional development in China in the recent years, a drawing up of the indicators system of appraisal on regional scienceoriented development in accordance with the requirements of the scienceoriented development philosophy, an application of the indicators system in the appraisal respectively on the science-oriented development situations of the 4 regional agglomerations (or regional economic complexes) and the 31 provinces, metropolitan areas, and national autonomous regions, and an examination on the relationships of all sorts of indexes by using the sectional data of the just mentioned 31 units. This paper is finished by the Project Team on Regional Development Trends and Scientific Appraising System. The members of the project team are Zhang Junkuo, Hou Yong-Zhi, Gao Shi-Ji,Feng Jie, Liu Pei-Lin, Liu Yun-Zhong, Liu Feng, Xuan Xiao-Wei and Sun Zhi-Yan. Zhang Junkuo is the head of the team.     

中国经济学与诺贝尔经济学奖差距研究

关于中国经济学与诺贝尔经济学奖的差距：（1）中国的经济学起步晚;（2）浓重的意识形态,导致对经济学理论理解的偏颇,使建国后的经济学在很大程度上误入歧途;（3）经济学研究方法的僵化与落后。     

New general theory of economic development: Innovative growth and distribution

Economic development, which refers to the process of progressive transformation of an economy, is a multifaceted term without a universal definition. This article presents the constitutive elements of economic development: growth, distribution, and innovation. Economic development has been ubiquitous with the economic progress of “developing” countries, but the changing economic circumstances of “developed” countries, such as stagnant growth, regional economic disparity within developed countries, and deepening income gaps among citizens of developed countries, have made this term also relevant to address the economic problems of developed countries. The mechanisms of economic development, with respect to both developed and developing countries, are elusive, and the existing theories have not been able to explain these mechanisms of economic development adequately. This article reviews the existing theories and presents a new theoretical framework to explain the process of economic development.     

Introduction - Children and Family Policy: a Feminist Issue

Policy makers increasingly rely on theories of social capital to fashion development interventions that mobilize local social networks in the alleviation of poverty. The potential of such theory lies in its recognition of the social dimensions of economic growth. This recognition has inspired some innovative approaches to development, such as the now-popular microfinance model. In assessing the implications of these recent developments for feminist objectives of social transformation, this paper evaluates prevailing ideas about social capital (rooted in rational choice theory) against the grain of three alternative approaches: Marxian social capital theories ( À la Pierre Bourdieu), neo-Foucauldian governmentality studies, and my feminist ethnographic research on the social embeddedness of economic practice in a merchant community of Nepal. The paper concludes by bringing these critical insights to bear on possibilities for designing microfinance programs - and practicing a kind of development more generally - that could engage women's solidarity to challenge dominant gender ideologies.     

A critical review of the full economic evaluations of pharmacological treatments for colorectal cancer

Abstract

Objective: This literature review makes a critical assessment of the methodology of the full economic evaluations (FEEs) conducted on colorectal cancer (CRC) pharmacological treatments.

Method: A literature search of the international databases PubMed and EMBASE was carried out to find all the studies published in the English language on pharmacological treatments for CRC in the period 2001–2005. A checklist was adopted to analyse the 13 FEEs selected. Fourteen clinical trials were extracted from the references as sources of efficacy data and were reviewed separately according to a clinical checklist. Finally, the reliability of the 13 FEEs was assessed from the health authorities' perspective by applying a critical appraisal checklist of 16 items derived from the economic and clinical variables previously analysed.

Results: This review found that pharmacoeconomic studies on CRC showed important methodological weaknesses mainly regarding economic evaluation, whilst the sources of clinical evidence were of higher technical quality, although the clinical effectiveness of therapies was not fully sustained by their results.     

A new methodology for the logistic analysis of evolutionary S-shaped processes: Application to historical time series and forecasting

A new multi-logistic methodology to analyze long range time series of evolutionary S-shaped processes is presented. It conceptually innovates over the traditional logistic approach. The ansatz includes computing the residuals to an optimized multi-logistic trend curve least squares fitted to the time-series data. The elements of the residuals series are checked for autocorrelations and once detected the residuals series is further analyzed to search for eventual presence of underlying periodic structures using a truncated Fourier sine series. The method foundations ensures both a universal applicability and a capacity to disclose the existence of active clocks that can be possibly traced to the driving motors of the evolutionary character of the time series, due to the responsiveness of corresponding process to the development of economic cycles. On associating these two views, it is found that the methodology has a strong potential to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. These findings have been put to test through applications of the methodology to studying the time evolution of two commodities of strong economic and social importance (corn and steel) and good results were consistently obtained for both the analytical and forecasting aspects.     

No escape from the dominant theories: The analysis of intellectual pillars of technology management in developing countries

This paper aims to identify the intellectual bases of the technology management (TM) literature generated in developing countries using citation and co-citation analyses and answer the question of whether the intellectual bases of the TM literature created by authors in developing countries diverge from those of the global TM literature. Based on a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of ten technology-innovation management (TIM) specialty journals through the period of 1998-2007, this study produces three important findings. First, the TM literature generated in developing countries is dominated by the knowledge and theories created in developed countries. Second, among these knowledge sources some authors from developing countries and focusing on the specialties of developing countries, such as Kim and Lall, come into prominence; however these authors are not even mentioned in the previous bibliometric studies covering overall TM research. Finally the researchers in developing countries tackle with the issues or topics specific to their own context through combining three major bulks of literature. These are (i) resource-based view (RBV)/core competencies and organizational learning related research; (ii) literature dealing with the evolutionary theorizing on economic change and growth and (iii) literature related to technological capabilities, technology transfer and industrialization in developing countries.     

Expectations for the University in the Knowledge-Based Economy

As there is an increasing perception of the importance of knowledge creation and distribution for economic prosperity, what kind of role should universities play? Which public policies are more effective in promoting this role? These are the fundamental questions this article addresses. The objective is to understand the expectations for the universities in developed countries under a public policy perspective. More specifically, we discuss public policies that can promote, and those that can hinder, a positive and cumulative role of universities in the knowledge-based economies. The article systematizes the economic relevance of knowledge using recent advancements in the so-called new growth theories. Some empirical manifestations of the increasing importance of knowledge are analyzed. We briefly discuss the mission of the university as it is almost universally perceived today. Universities have been viewed as producers of new codified knowledge through research and as providers of human capital through high level education. The evolutionary trend of these functions, in which the university’s research importance to promote the learning ability of graduates has been enhanced, is discussed within the context of the knowledge-based societies. The analysis is presented in terms of the impact that public policy, and especially public funding, may have in fostering or hindering the positive contribution of universities for economic prosperity. The fundamental criterion, we argue, is the preservation of the institutional integrity of the university.     

经济地理学与经济学关系的历史考察

经济地理学发展不仅与人文地理的其他分支交互发展,并从包括经济学在内的社会科学内吸收营养。文章通过历史性地考察经济地理学与经济学关系,尝试探索经济地理学未来的发展趋势。通过考察发现:古典经济地理学时期,经济地理学与经济学相互交织、彼此影响;1930、1940时代到1970、1980年代,经济学引领经济地理发展,而经济地理学者没有对主流经济学产生重大影响;1980年代末和1990年代初期,经济地理学吸收经济学相关理论,实现了文化、制度和关系的转向,同时主流经济学则出现了地理化趋势,出现了新经济地理学运动。1980年代以来,演化思想在经济学界逐渐兴盛起来,演化经济学理论已得到越来越多的经济学家的重视,在20世纪90年代,经济地理学家接受了演化经济学的基本概念,开始尝试构建演化经济地理学理论框架。演化经济地理学是经济地理和经济学的下一个交叉点。     

收入差距与经济增长研究新动态

收入差距与经济增长之间的关系一直是经济研究中的重要问题之一, 一些新方法新理论被不断发掘,如收入差距与经济危机、收入差距和财政波动、收入差距与产出波动等。本文对该领域影响力较大的新文献进行梳理和评述,为研究收入差距和经济增长问题提供参照平台,同时也为研究和解决我国收入差距问题提供建议和参考。     

The human capital and economic growth nexus: in East and South Asia

This study adopts a disaggregated regional focus to test for the human capital (HC)-growth nexus in selected nine Asian countries. It utilizes the Empirical Bayesian methodology which addresses not only the heterogeneity issue but it also utilizes the common structural priors of regional countries to yield ‘informationally’ efficient estimates of the impact of HC on the stock and levels of GDP. Various measures of HC are utilized to determine which of these produces a better explanation of economic growth in the two Asian regions. The study finds that primary and secondary education was more prominent in explaining the fluctuations of economic growth in East Asia, whereas tertiary and vocational education showed positive effects on economic growth in South Asia. Government expenditures on education were also found to positively affect economic growth in both regions. The results shed new evidence to establish that the differences in growth rates within East and South Asia are associated with differences in educational progression in the regions.     

A critical realist interpretation of evolutionary growth theorising

The paper discusses a critical realist interpretation of evolutionarygrowth theorising by focusing on some of its basic characteristics.The evolutionary ontology is complex, differentiated, structured,systemic, open, ever-changing and radically uncertain. Its methodologytends to be increasingly based on ‘appreciative’theorising, retroductive explanations and interdisciplinaryanalysis. After discussing these features, the paper suggeststhat critical realism may indeed constitute an important philosophicaland methodological foundation for the future development ofevolutionary theories of economic growth.     

The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)

This paper proposes a new methodology to check the economic performance of a monetary policy and in particular the inflation targeting policy (ITP). The main idea of this work is to consider the ITP as economically efficient when it generates a stable monetary environment. The latter is considered as stable when a long-run equilibrium exists to which the paths of economic variables (inflation rate, interest rate and GDP growth) converge. The convergence of the variables' paths implies that these variables are more predictable and implies a less uncertainty in the economic environment. To measure the degree of convergence between economic variables, we propose, in this paper, a dynamic time-varying variable presented in the frequency approach named cohesion. This variable is estimated from the evolutionary co-spectral theory as defined by Priestley and Tong (1973) and Priestley (1969, 1981, 52 and 53). We apply this theory to the measure of cohesion presented by Croux et al. (2001) to obtain a dynamic time-varying measure. In the last step of the study, we apply the Bai and Perron test (1998, 2003a,b) to determine the change in the cohesion path. The results show that the implementation of the ITP generates a high degree of convergence between economic series that implies less uncertainty into the monetary environment. We conclude that the inflation targeting generates a stable monetary environment. This result allows us to conclude that the ITP is relevant in the case of industrialized countries.     

新常态下的人力资本与经济增长——综合金融资本和创新创业的理论建模

在国内外形势的双重影响下,中国经济步入了"新常态"的阶段,放缓的经济增长步伐带来新的矛盾和挑战,经济增长模式从以往的粗放型逐渐向集约型转变,但以往的经济理论在经济新阶段都具有一定的局限性.本文使用主流宏观经济学前沿的建模方法将现有的四大经济增长理论囊括在一个综合模型中,把人力资本投资、金融资本投资、实物资本投资、创新创业活动、纳什博弈机制有机地结合在统一的分析框架下,对经济增长理论文献做出重要的概括和拓展.通过校准赋值和数值模拟,得出理论模型的基本结论:人力资本积累虽然可以通过创新和创业促进经济增长,但是其效果仍是递减的,呈现出新古典增长模型的属性.     

A history of post-Keynesian economics

John King, in his A History of Post Keynesian Economics Since1936, raises the question of whether there exists a body ofwork which can be called, collectively, post Keynesian. Thispaper presents some criteria for addressing this question, beginningwith the vision and the origins of some of the post-Keynesianideas, leading to an examination of certain features of thevarious groups, including their methodology and their approachesto uncertainty, their pricing theories and their growth theories.It is concluded that, although there is much diversity in thevarious groups, they are reconcilable when seen as referringto different aspects of the economic process and at differinglevels of abstraction.     

Social Costs and the Automobile Industry: A Challenge to National Planning

Neoinstitutional thought is based on an integration of Thorstein Veblen's evolutionary theory of institutional change and John Dewey's theory of instrumental valuation. It offers a coherent methodology that guides both economic analysis and policy formation. Neoinstitutionalist methodology differs from mainstream economic methodology in its rejection of the normative-positive dualism. It denies that "objectivity" requires that science be wertfrie, arguing instead that normative propositions based on instrumental valuation are the foundation of scientific objectivity. The analytical focus of neoinstitutional economics is the process of institutional change which it treats as a change in the value structure of the institution.