A Decision Model for E-commerce-enabled Partial Market Exit

Struggling retail chains often try to recover profitability by closing some of their stores. The challenge in this strategy lies in determining how many stores to close, as store exit has implications for both the customers and the supply chain. After a store closes, its customers are lost forever to the competition, unless there is a surviving open store nearby or an electronic alternative such as an e-store. From the supply chain perspective, after a store closes, its supporting regional distribution center is left with less business, and thus reduced viability. This paper develops a decision support model to study the profitability of alternative retail network structures by varying the proportion of stores that are closed, the average price sensitivity of demand, the price difference between the online store and the traditional retailers, and customer retention rates.     

The Term Structure of Simple Forward Rates with Jump Risk

This paper characterizes the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates, in the presence of both jumps and diffusion, when the term structure is modeled through simple forward rates (i.e., through discretely compounded forward rates evolving continuously in time) or forward swap rates. Whereas instantaneous continuously compounded rates form the basis of most traditional interest rate models, simply compounded rates and their parameters are more directly observable in practice and are the basis of recent research on "market models." We consider very general types of jump processes, modeled through marked point processes, allowing randomness in jump sizes and dependence between jump sizes, jump times, and interest rates. We make explicit how jump and diffusion risk premia enter into the dynamics of simple forward rates. We also formulate reasonably tractable subclasses of models and provide pricing formulas for some derivative securities, including interest rate caps and options on swaps. Through these formulas, we illustrate the effect of jumps on implied volatilities in interest rate derivatives.     

On the Existence of Finite-Dimensional Realizations for Nonlinear Forward Rate Models

We consider interest rate models of the Heath–Jarrow–Morton type, where the forward rates are driven by a multidimensional Wiener process, and where the volatility is allowed to be an arbitrary smooth functional of the present forward rate curve. Using ideas from differential geometry as well as from systems and control theory, we investigate when the forward rate process can be realized by a finite-dimensional Markovian state space model, and we give general necessary and sufficient conditions, in terms of the volatility structure, for the existence of a finite-dimensional realization. A number of concrete applications are given, and all previously known realization results (as far as existence is concerned) for Wiener driven models are included and extended. As a special case we give a general and easily applicable necessary and sufficient condition for when the induced short rate is a Markov process. In particular we give a short proof of a result by Jeffrey showing that the only forward rate models with short rate dependent volatility structures which generically possess a short rate realization are the affine ones. These models are thus the only generic short rate models from a forward rate point of view.     

Making new products go viral and succeed

Why are some new product introductions more viral and successful than others? This research integrates theories of interpersonal communication and consumer learning to explore this question. Analyzing a unique data set of millions of consumer word-of-mouth transmissions (eWOM) on social media regarding 345 new automobile products introduced during 2008–2015, we find that more innovative products generate more eWOM volume but surprisingly less positive sentiment. These effects vary in magnitude across eWOM channels. However, the use of rich-content communication, pre-announcement, and cobranding strengthens (weakens) the positive (negative) effect of product innovativeness on eWOM volume (sentiment). The results further indicate that eWOM sentiment is a stronger predictor of new product success than eWOM volume. Experimental results reveal more insights into how product innovativeness influences eWOM metrics in several product categories and shed light on the role of excitement and perceived risk as mechanisms underlying these effects. The research offers useful implications for firms to design effective viral marketing campaigns to enhance new product success.     

ON FINITE DIMENSIONAL REALIZATIONS OF TWO-COUNTRY INTEREST RATE MODELS

This paper explores how consistent two-dimensional families of forward rate curves can be constructed on an international market. Applying the approach in Björk and Christenssen (1999) and Björk and Svensson (2001) , we study when a system of inherently infinite dimensional domestic and foreign forward rate processes in a two-country economy with spot (forward) exchange rate possesses finite dimensional realizations. In the system with the forward exchange rate, the forward interest rate equations are supplemented by a third infinite dimensional stochastic differential equation representing the forward exchange rate dynamics. We construct and fit consistent families to observed Euro and USD yields as well as the forward (spot) EUR/USD exchange rate.     

Retail environment and manufacturer competitive intensity

We study how the intensity of competition and the degree to which manufacturers enjoy market power depends on the retail environment in a given market. Past research has discussed the growing importance of retailers and the power they enjoy over manufacturers. Yet, the empirical literature to date has not determined which retail characteristics have the largest impact on competitive behavior.Our starting point is the estimation of a structural demand-and-supply model, where both consumers’ decisions and the strategic interactions between manufacturers and retailers are explicitly modeled. We identify the type of competitive behavior of manufacturers by measuring the deviation from a Bertrand-Nash equilibrium. This measure of competitive conduct is expressed as a function of key retail characteristics such as size of the retailer, its assortment depth, and category expertise.We illustrate the proposed approach using data for the ground coffee category in Germany. Our findings indicate that retail characteristics have indeed a significant effect on competitive intensity among upstream firms and on their ability to exercise market power. Hence, a manufacturer considering entry into a new market should not only take into account its competitors but also the specifics of the retail environment in this market.     

An Empirical Evaluation of the Corporate Strategies of Nigerian Companies

ABSTRACT

As a result of substantial and contemporary changes in the Nigerian business environment, a study was designed to evaluate the corporate strategies used by Nigerian organizations to cope with these changes. Using the survey research methodology of questionnaire on a sample of 1280 corporate executives working in quoted companies in Lagos state of Nigeria, it was found that some aspects of operationalised grand corporate strategies were highly emphasized by Nigerian organizations, while some were not highly emphasized. For example, market penetration strategy was the most emphasized grand corporate strategy, while planned liquidation strategy was the least emphasized strategy. Also, the research revealed that local competition had the highest impact on corporate strategy, while foreign competition posed the least impact on the corporate strategies of Nigerian companies. Nigerian organizations were most effective in achieving profitability objective through their grand corporate strategies, while corporate social responsibility was the least achieved corporate objective via corporate strategies. These findings and their managerial implications were discussed along the salient issues of the research with respect to the research problem, research questions, relevant literature, managerial actions, and Other cognate issues.     

Entrepreneurial Survival

This paper gives an empirical analysis of determinants of new-firm survival in the manufacturing sector of Baden-Wuerttemberg (Germany) from 1981 to 1994. The analysis focuses on firm- and industry-specific determinants of new-firm survival. A possible effect of regional agglomeration and of the business cycle is also tested, albeit in a very general manner. From a methodical point of view parametric and semiparametric duration models are used. Grouped duration models are estimated taking into account the problem of ties. Moreover, the problem of unobserved heterogeneity is considered which has so far been neglected in numerous studies. The empirical analyses show with respect to industry-specific effects that the risk of new-firm failure is the larger the larger an industry’ s minimum efficient scale is, the worse the sectoral demand-conditions are, the more narrow the market is, the higher dynamics of foundation within an industry are. The liability of smallness-hypothesis is confirmed for German manufacturing while with respect to firm age the results favour the liability of adolescence-hypothesis instead of a pure liability of newness.     

THE AFFINE LIBOR MODELS

We provide a general and flexible approach to LIBOR modeling based on the class of affine factor processes. Our approach respects the basic economic requirement that LIBOR rates are nonnegative, and the basic requirement from mathematical finance that LIBOR rates are analytically tractable martingales with respect to their own forward measure. Additionally, and most importantly, our approach also leads to analytically tractable expressions of multi‐LIBOR payoffs. This approach unifies therefore the advantages of well‐known forward price models with those of classical LIBOR rate models. Several examples are added and prototypical volatility smiles are shown. We believe that the CIR process‐based LIBOR model might be of particular interest for applications, since closed form valuation formulas for caps and swaptions are derived.     

资源稀缺、技术冲击与风险投资退出时机

通过建立风险投资退出时机选择模型,运用2004~2011年中国风险投资退出的季度数据考察了技术冲击和市场利率等因素变化对风险投资退出时机的影响。研究发现：（1）资源稀缺的程度与风险投资退出时机的选择有着非常紧密的联系;（2）市场利率的变化对风险投资的退出行为的影响具有不对称性：市场利率下降可能会导致风险投资加速退出质量较差的风险企业,同时却更长时间地持有质量较好的风险企业;（3）技术进步会增加风险企业的数量,提高风险投资市场上风险企业的平均质量,加速风险投资退出。     

风险投资退出风险及其控制

风险投资退出是风险投资过程中最后一步也是最关键的一步,风险投资的退出存在风险,但风险并非仅存在退出这一个阶段,从选择投资项目开始就存在风险。从风险投资的项目选择、风险资本注入企业后的管理、风险投资退出时机和风险投资退出方式的选择四个方面来阐述对风险投资退出风险的控制。     

石油钻探一体化管理模式的探索与实践

提出了石油探井钻井一体化项目管理新模式,针对新疆西湖地区地质特点,探讨相应的钻井提速措施。通过风险探井西湖1井的现场实践,实施一体化管理模式能够较好地实现管理人员与技术人员的资源共享和互补,缩短了指挥链,钻井速度明显提高,复杂事故发生率明显降低,从而实现了项目费用、进度、质量和安全的有效控制。     

Information diffusion and new product consumption: A bass model application to tourism facility management

This article applies models to measure and to understand how information diffusion influences tourists' consumption patterns. The study uses administrative data on a new festival's attendance and advertising. Bass's [Bass FM. A new product growth for model consumer durables. Manage Sci 1969;15(5):215-227] model and a modified version [Horsky D, Simon LS. Advertising and the diffusion of new products. Mark Sci 1983;2(1):1-18] to allow for advertising's effect. Results imply effectiveness of front loaded advertising. This result is due to increasing purchases that result from word-of-mouth information diffusion. However, a model with an effect of advertising is accepted as well as a model with no consideration of advertising budget. Examination of consistency and conceptual issues with models raises the need for models that are more realistic for the tourism product. A specific concern is developing models appropriate to analysis of attendance at a limited-duration innovative event (e.g., new product) held at a host to impact longer-term attendance of the host.     

Why the Generalized Bass Model leads to odd optimal advertising policies

We show that the optimal advertising strategy under the Generalized Bass Model (GBM) involves beginning at an extremely low level (the lower the better) and then increasing spending throughout the planning period. This strategy remains optimal in the presence of decreasing prices that affect both margins and diffusion speed. We provide a simple explanation for why this happens. We further show that the intuitively appealing patterns of continuous decrease or increase-then-decrease (both with an uptick towards the end) identified in earlier research are also possible as optimal dynamic advertising paths under the GBM structure, but only if the advertising at launch is constrained to be higher than a particular threshold, which we identify. The constraint necessary to generate intuitively appealing strategies lowers overall profits. Therefore, the GBM generates advertising policy recommendations that most marketers would deem odd. This casts doubt on the value of the GBM for normative purposes. Other existing diffusion models are preferred when seeking normative guidance on optimal dynamic advertising policies for new products subject to word of mouth.     

基于创新资源配置的风险投资退出行为研究

风险投资通过对自有创新资源的配置可实现在顺利退出的同时降低对企业的道德风险。本文以2009-2015年在创业板上市具有风险投资事件的企业为研究样本,通过多重统计检验及回归分析,研究风险投资退出行为对企业产生的经济影响及创新资源配置的决策依据。从财务角度考察发现,风险投资在锁定期后的套现减持会导致企业经营绩效出现显著性下滑;从创新资源配置的源头分析,风投机构的退出时机和退出速度主要受到资源投入量和配置策略的影响;整体来看,绩效在企业获得的风险投资资金规模越大时表现更稳定,而风险投资联合规模越大时,企业绩效下降的幅度越大。因此,风投机构应对创新资源投入量和配置策略进行统筹规划,以实现风投机构和风险企业的最优效益。     

经济刺激计划退出的国际比较及对中国的启示

在全球经济复苏前景日益明朗的情况下,经济刺激计划的退出问题再次引发讨论高潮。危机背景下非常规经济刺激计划的退出是必然的,只是时机、节奏和力度的问题。本文在分析全球主要发达国家应对金融危机救助政策的基础上,对退出的时机与路径,以及财政政策与货币政策的协调搭配等进行了述评,并对全球经济刺激计划的退出政策进行了国际比较。最后得出几点主要结论及对中国的启示:当前中国经济刺激计划不宜全面退出;经济刺激计划要分阶段退出,兼顾市场反应等。     

美联储量化宽松货币政策正常化与人民币汇率变动——基于时变参数向量自相关模型的研究

2015年后,随着量化宽松货币政策正常化和人民币汇率进入双向波动新常态,美国货币政策对人民币汇率的外溢效应日益显著。通过构建时变参数向量自相关模型对2008-2018年美联储量化宽松货币政策的实施和退出对人民币汇率的溢出效应进行研究,结果表明：美联储加息在滞后一季度作用人民币兑美元先升值后贬值,加息通过中美利差、产出差、货币供给之差分别作用于人民币兑美元贬值、升值和升值,利差渠道是主要作用渠道;美联储资产负债表扩张和缩减分别带来人民币汇率的升值和贬值,且扩张的升值影响大于缩减的贬值影响;美联储资产负债表和利率政策有一定替代性,替代关系存在明显的结构效应;美联储资产负债表的扩张和缩减分别带来中国银行间市场利率的下降和回升,两国利率表现出一定联动性。     

论企业可持续增长的财务管理策略

在资本回报大于资本成本的情况下，企业长期持续增长会增加企业价值。但如果没有解决好企业发展过程中的资金问题，企业的长期过快增长或过慢增长最终会损害企业价值。文章从可持续增长概念出发，分析了企业增长与资金需求的关系，针对企业生命周期的不同阶段，提出了实现企业增长管理的基本财务管理策略。