International Stock Market Linkages and Spillovers: Evidence from Three Latin American Countries

ABSTRACT

Using a multivariate exponential generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (M-EGARCH) model, this study examines price and volatility spillovers and response asymmetries between the equity markets of the United States and Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Our results vary depending on the openness of the country in terms of international trade. Evidence indicates that there are price and volatility spillovers from the United States to Mexico and Chile and but not to Brazil. In addition, our results indicate response asymmetries for Mexico and Chile, suggesting that the Mexican and Chilean markets are more sensitive to negative innovations originating from other markets than to positive innovations.

RESUMEN. Este estudio examina contagios de precio y volatilidad, y respuestas asimétricas entre los mercados de capital de Estados Unidos y Brasil, Chile y México, fundándose en un modelo exponencial generalizado multivariado, con un condicionante autoregresivo heteroscedástico (M-EGARCH). Los resultados obtenidos varían, dependiente del nivel de apertura de un país en lo que concierne al comercio internacional. Las pruebas indican que existen contagios de precio y volatilidades desde los Estados Unidos hacia México y Chile, pero no hacia Brasil. Además, los resultados también indican asimetrías de respuesta para México y Chile, sugiriendo que estos dos mercados son más sensibles a las innovaciones negativas que se originan en otros mercados, que a las innovaciones positivas.

RESUMO. Usando um modelo condicionalmente heterocedástico, autoregressivo, generalizado, exponencial e multivariado (M-EGARCH), este estudo examina contágios de preços e volatilidade, e assimetrias de resposta entre mercados de ações dos EUA e Brasil, Chile e México. Nossos resultados variam, dependendo da abertura do país em termos de comércio internacional. Os dados indicam que existem contágiosde preço e volatilidade dos EUA para o México e Chile, mas não para o Brasil. Além disso, nossos resultados indicam assimetrias de resposta para o México e Chile, sugerindo que estes mercados são mais sensíveis a inovações negativas originárias de outros mercados do que a inovações positivas.     

我国对拉美新兴市场出口的影响因素研究——基于引力模型和变系数面板数据模型的实证分析

选取巴西、智利和阿根廷为代表,借助引力模型,在对面板数据进行单位根检验和协整分析的基础上,运用变系数面板回归模型,实证分析了我国对拉美新兴市场出口的影响因素问题。结果表明,贸易摩擦显著影响了我国对其出口;人民币汇率变动的影响,应视进口国货币汇率变化情况和双方贸易的互补性和竞争性程度而定;拉美地区人均收入的提高会降低对我国产品的需求;双边良好的经济基础为我国出口提供了有效保障;虽然我国对拉美新兴市场出口较多,但利润较低。最后还从经济与贸易角度对上述实证结果进行了解读,并提出了相应的对策建议。     

Antecedents of importer relationship performance in Latin America

Emerging market importers are increasingly engaging in relationships with foreign suppliers. Nevertheless, characteristics of the institutional and cultural environments of countries may affect relationship behavior. Furthermore, research on relationship marketing primarily focuses on the marketing activities of exporters from developed countries and much less attention is paid to the import side of the exchange process. Thus, the objective of this study is to empirically examine importer relationship performance in a Latin American context. This article proposes and tests a conceptual model that includes the antecedents and outcomes of trust and commitment with a survey of Chilean importers. The model uses confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to develop the construct measures and structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the model. The findings of this study contribute to a better understanding of the driving forces of trust and commitment and their influence on importing firms' performance in an emerging market context.     

Do strategic marketing and social capital really matter in regional clusters? Lessons from an emerging economy of Latin America

This research explores the relationship between geographic proximity and the building of social capital and inter-firm cooperation in strategic marketing. By emphasizing social interactions and the building of social capital, we extend the research on industry clusters beyond traditional economic perspectives and factors motivating cooperation between firms. The empirical study is based on a survey of 90 senior managers from three natural resources-based industries (two non-clustered and one clustered) in Chile. The results show that managers in clustered versus non-clustered industries differ in terms of the perceived value of location, the perceived value of building social capital, their involvement in activities that build social capital, their attitudes toward cooperative marketing, their history of involvement in cooperative marketing activities, and their intentions for engaging in cooperative marketing activities in the future. Trade associations in clustered versus non-clustered industries play different roles in regard to creating social capital. The article concludes by discussing the implications of these findings for researchers, managers and policy makers.     

Economic integration across Latin America: Evidence from labour markets, 1990–2013

Combining macroeconomic and microeconomic data and three indicators of international market integration, this paper assesses the degree to which Latin American labour markets are integrated. The results suggest that relative to East Asia, Latin American labour markets are somewhat more integrated, but considerable differences across countries persist. In addition, the evidence indicates that the degree of labour market integration across Latin American borders is significantly less than that of labour markets within the United States in two of the three indicators. These differences may suggest opportunities for efficiency gains from further labour market integration.     

Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement: An Analysis

ABSTRACT

The Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement (FTA) came into effect in June 1997. This paper examines the rationale for free trade negotiations between Canada and Chile. Key trade and investment issues in the Canada-Chile FTA are also discussed. Although it is only a few years since the Canada-Chile FTA entered into force, the preliminary results indicate impressive growth in trade and investment between the two countries.

RESUMEN. El Acuerdo de Libre Comercio Canadá-Chile (ALC) entró en vigor en junio 1997. Este documento examina el razonamiento que respalda las negociaciones entre Canadá y Chile sobre el Acuerdo de libre comercio. También abraca los temas más importantes sobre el comercio e inversiones entre Canadá-Chile. A pesar del poco tiempo transcurrido desde que se implantó el acuerdo de ALC entre Canadá y Chile, los resultados preliminarios indican una impresionante tasa de crecimiento entre las inversiones realizadas entre ambos países.

RESUMO. O Acordo de Livre Comércio (ALC) Canadá-Chile entrou em vigor em junho de 1997. Este estudo investiga os fundamentos das livres negociaç[otilde]es comerciais entre o Canadá e o Chile. São abordados, também, o comércio principal e os investimentos realizados no ALC Canadá-Chile. Apesar de estar em vigor há poucos anos, os resultados preliminares deste acordo indicam um crescimento impressionante no comércio e nos investimentos entre os dois países.     

Components of Foreign Direct Investment Flows

Abstract

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows constitute an important element of both regional and global integration. FDI data are often appraised as if they consist exclusively of new equity flows, when in fact they also include reinvested earnings as well as short-term and long-term intra-company debt flows. This paper examines these “components” of inward FDI flows in the balance-of-payments of Latin American countries, and compares them with inward and outward FDI flows for OECD countries, including the United States. The paper examines whether the component flows for individual countries are substitutes or complements for each other, or whether they are independent of one another; the results indicate that the component flows often are independent of each other. Therefore, differences in alternative FDI theories can be partially resolved by more explicit recognition of differences in the determinants and consequences of the components of FDI. Such differences, furthermore, have a variety of implications for government policymakers as well as corporate decision-makers.

Resumen

Los flujos de Inversión Directa Extranjera (IDE) constituyen un elemento impotante de la inegración regional y global. La información sobre IDE con frecuencia es considerada como si solo estuviera compuesta de flujos de capital cuando en realidad también incluye otros componentes como la relnversión de la ganancias y los flujos a corto y largo plazo de deuda entre compañias. Este artículo examina estos componentes de flujos de IDE en la balanza de pagos de paises latinoamericanos y los compara con los flujos hacia adentro y afuera de IDE en paises miembros de la OECD, incluyendo a los Estados Unidos. En particluar, se estudia si los flujos de estos componentes son substitutos o complementarios, ó si son independientes entre si. Como consecuencia de lo sugerido en este artículo, se propone que las diferencias en las teorías alternativas de IDE pueden ser parcialmente resueltas a través de un reconocimiento mas explícito de las diferencias en los determinantes y las consecuencias de los diversos componentes de la IDE. Adicionalmente, se muestra que estas diferencias tienen una variedad de implicaciones en los tomardores de decisiones involucrados en la definitión de política tanto pública como corporativa.

Resumo

Os fluxos de investimento estrangeiro direto (IED) constituem um elemento importante de integração regional e global. Os dados sobre IED são freqüentemente avaliados como se consistissem apenas de norvos investimentos no patrimônio líquido, quando de fato eles também incluem o reinvestimento de lucros como também fluxos creditícios de curto e longo prazo internos à companhia. Esse trabalho examina esses “componentes” dos fluxos de entrada do IED sobre o balanço de pagamentos de países latino americanos e os compra com o fluxos de entrada e saída de IED para os países da OCDE, incluindo os Estados Unidos. O artigo examina se os componentes dos fluxos para países individuais são substitutes ou complementos ou es eles são independentes entre si. Os resultados indicam que os componentes dos fluxos são freqüentemente independentes entre si. Portanto, diferenças entre teorias alternativas sobre o IED podem ser parcialmente resolvidas pelo reconhecimento mais explícito das diferenças nos deteminantes e nas conseqüencias dos componentes do IED. Além do que, estas diferenças apresentam uma variedade de implicações para a política governamental como também para a tomada de decisão corporativa.     

Labor markets in Latin America: a look at the supply-side

This work asks whether there is a supply-side story to be told about labor market outcomes in Latin America. We present stylized facts about the connection between the demographic transition and changes in education (the size and quality of the labor force), with labor supply, inequality, and unemployment. The main conclusion is that the neglected topics of demographics and education improve our understanding of the overall decline in employment, the changing pattern of unemployment, and the rise in wage inequality. By adding them to the well-established demand and institutional factors behind these outcomes, we can obtain a clearer picture about labor markets in Latin America.     

Do Artificial Neural Networks Provide Better Forecasts? Evidence from Latin American Stock Indexes

ABSTRACT

Forecasting is a key activity for academics and investors in the fields of finance and economics. This paper explores the usefulness of the non-linear artificial neural network (ANN) for forecasting Latin American stock indexes. Our goal is to estimate and compare the forecast accuracy of the ANN with three traditional models: random walk, ARMA, and GARCH. Our results provide strong support for the ANN as a potentially useful device for predicting Latin American stock indexes. ANN forecasts are more accurate than those of more traditional methods, and the results are robust using the Diebold and Mariano test and encompassing regressions.

RESUMEN. Trazar previsiones es, ciertamente, una de las actividades claves de los académicos e inversores en el campo de las finanzas y la economía. Este estudio explora la utilidad de una red artificial neural no lineal (ANN) para pronosticar los índices bursátiles latinoamericanos. Nuestra meta consiste en estimar y comparar la precisión de la previsión de una ANN con tres modelos tradicionales: el paso aleatorio, ARMA y GARCH. Nuestros resultados suministran fuerte apoyo a las ANN como un dispositivo potencialmente útil para predecir los índices bursátiles en Latinoamérica. Las previsiones ANN son más precisas que aquellas obtenidas con los métodos más tradicionales, y los resultados obtenidos utilizando las pruebas Diebold y Mariano y respectivas regresiones son más robustas.

RESUMO. A previsão é uma atividade fundamental para os acadêmicos e investidores no campo da economia e das finanças. Este estudo investiga a utilidade da Rede Neural Artificial (ANN) não-linear, para prever os índices das ações na América Latina. O nosso objetivo é avaliar e comparar a precisão do prognóstico da ANN com três modelos tradicionais: a movimentação aleatória, ARMA e GARCH. Os resultados obtidos reforçam a ANN como um dispositivo potencialmente útil na previsão dos índices de ações da América Latina. As previsões da ANN são mais precisas do que as previsões feitas por métodos tradicionais, e os resultados são significativos, utilizando o teste e as regressões Diebold e Mariano envolvidas.     

Ownership and capital structure in Latin America

This study evaluates the capital-structure determinants of Latin American firms using a comprehensive sample covering seven countries. Firms in the region have debt levels similar to those of U.S. firms, which is puzzling, given that Latin American firms experience relatively lower tax benefits and higher bankruptcy costs. This study argues that ownership-concentrated firms avoid issuing equity because they do not want to share control rights. Latin American firms have high ownership concentration, which creates an ideal setting to study how ownership concentration explains firms' capital structure. Consistent with the control argument, this study finds a positive relation between leverage and ownership concentration, when losing control becomes an issue. Also, the study shows a positive relation between leverage and growth. In addition, the study reports that other determinants that do not proxy for control rights are consistent with previous findings. Firms that are larger, have more tangible assets, and are less profitable are also more leveraged.     

International marketing strategies in industrial clusters: Insights from the Southern Hemisphere

This paper examines co-operative marketing strategies among clustered-based firms in the most important wine producing and exporting countries in the ‘new world’. The research examines the development of active inter-firm marketing co-operation undertaken by firms to achieve competitive positioning in international markets. The results of a survey of managers located in Argentina, Australia, Chile and New Zealand are presented. The empirical contribution comes from the unique comparative data from regional clusters in four countries which are seen internationally as innovative producers and marketers, all strongly export-oriented, but at different stages of economic development and positioning in the global marketplace. In addition, this study makes a significant contribution to agglomeration theory by confirming the importance of sharing marketing knowledge to build sustainable competitive advantage in international markets. The theoretical contribution builds understanding of international marketing strategies within the Southern Hemisphere group of emerging countries and offers new insights on international marketing practices for emerging firms from both the developed economies in the Pacific Ocean region and Latin American emerging economies.     

Needed B2B marketing capabilities: Insights from the USA and emerging Latin America

Firms from all parts of the world are expanding operations globally in a turbulent economic context, requiring the understanding of nontraditional markets. Much attention has been focused on China and India, but researchers have neglected Latin America, a region economically as important as Germany, India, Japan, and South Korea. Latin America, as is true of many developed and emerging markets, has a strong presence of industrial ? or business to business (B2B) ? transactions. The configuration and convergence-divergence of marketing capabilities are relevant for the understanding of the globalization phenomenon. This study aims to examine B2B marketing capabilities of firms in Chile, Mexico and Peru (as Latin American countries), seeking conceptual issues in order to comprehend their business perspectives and contribute to the almost nonexistent body of research in this region. How do the results from Latin America compare with the USA? While the study shows directional convergence between Chile and Peru, there also is interesting divergence between all Latin American countries and the USA. The findings offer a portfolio of marketing topics that we believe are worthy of practitioner and academic consideration. We propose a model of convergence-divergence of B2B marketing capabilities across nations and state propositions for hypothesis testing.     

International Capital and the Environment in Latin America

Summary

This century's end has been witnessing an increase in environmental concern. While initially a subject of developed countries, developing countries began to realize that the trade off between developing and conserving the environment has to be equated to give present and future generations a chance of success in their development efforts. Thus far, the approach taken by both developed and developing countries towards correcting environmental problems has been primarily dominated by command and control type of regulations, whose success is clearly a function of the regulator's enforcement capacity. Yet, there are signs that this approach is changing towards a more participatory mixed environmental policy model. This change has further stimulated the growing “environmental industry,” in which international capital plays a major role. This paper discusses these recent trends in the context of the conservation of the Latin America and the Caribbean environment.