共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 453 毫秒
1.
Ren-Raw Chen Hsien-Hsing Liao Tyler T. Yang 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,36(1):121-140
Due to the complex prepayment behavior, mortgage contracts and their derivatives are generally priced using Monte Carlo simulations.
The typical approach used by the industry, which involves simulating interest rates under the risk-neutral measure and applying a physically measured prepayment function, is subject to the problem of internal inconsistency. This is the first paper that directly investigates
the potential impact of this issue. Following the general equilibrium setting by Cox, Ingersoll and Ross, we incorporate the
market risk price parameter to derive the physical interest rate process from an observed yield curve. This allows us to model
mortgage values under the consistent physical measures of interest rates and prepayment functions. By analyzing a default-free
Ginnie Mae MBS, we find that the mixed measures lead to slower prepayment rate estimates and overpriced mortgage securities
by approximately 5%. Further, there can be substantial biases in the duration and convexity measures depending on market condition
and the particular security of interest. The internal inconsistency also leads to biased predictions of both expected and
stressed returns for different investment horizons. Depending on the particular security, the bias in expected and stressed
returns can be either positive or negative. These biases in risk estimates can introduce misallocation of risk-based capital
and/or failure in hedging the market risk of a mortgage-related portfolio.
相似文献
Tyler T. YangEmail: |
2.
Seow Eng Ong Tien Foo Sing Alan Hwee Loon Teo 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(3):253-280
This paper extends the extant literature in understanding the effects of equity and debt on delinquency and default by focusing
on a variant of borrower equity where part of equity is “protected”. The CPF scheme in Singapore stipulates that the refund
of borrower’s retirement funds utilized for property purchase prior to September 2002 takes priority over loan obligations.
A decision to utilize CPF for property purchase actually increases ex post delinquency and default risk as it effectively
reduces cash equity commitment. In particular, any erosion in house value that places protected equity at risk translates
into potential wealth reduction or financial liability for the borrower. While loss aversion is evident for non-distressed
sellers, the effect of equity losses for distressed borrowers is not as clear. Our research suggests that averting losses
in committed equity may be a secondary consideration for borrower subject to income shocks, recognizing that delinquency and
default are precursors to foreclosure. Interestingly, we find that the borrowers are strongly averse to incurring protected
equity-induced wealth loss or financial liability. This study suggests that the first-lien “anomaly” associated with CPF refund
may reduce delinquency and default risks for mortgage backed securities.
相似文献
Seow Eng OngEmail: |
3.
We investigate the relationship between the borrower’s abnormal loan announcement return and the bank’s loan screening and
monitoring using a new ex-ante proxy for loan screening and monitoring. While recent studies have suggested that bank loan relationships and related loan
screening and monitoring services may no longer matter, we find significant loan announcement returns over the 1995–1999 period
and, controlling for borrower and loan characteristics, a statistically significant positive relationship between the proxy
and the borrower’s standardized CAR. While consistent with a bank’s loan screening and monitoring adding value to the borrower,
the economic effect is relatively small.
相似文献
Ian G. SharpeEmail: |
4.
Sophocles N. Brissimis Thomas Vlassopoulos 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2009,39(2):146-164
Although the close empirical relationship between the evolution of mortgage lending and housing prices is well established
in the literature, the direction of causation is less clear from a theoretical standpoint. We apply multivariate cointegration
techniques in order to address this issue empirically for the Greek economy. Our results, based on a cointegration relationship
that we identify as a mortgage loan demand equation, indicate that housing prices do not adjust to disequilibria in the market
for housing loans. This suggests that in the long run the causation does not run from mortgage lending to housing prices.
In the short run we find evidence of a contemporaneous bi-directional dependence.
相似文献
Thomas VlassopoulosEmail: |
5.
John J. Maher Robert M. Brown Raman Kumar 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2008,31(2):167-189
We examine the valuation effects of overall demand for corporate equities combined with the influence of abnormal earnings
and unexpected funds flow. Our results indicate that the expected and unexpected net new total flow of funds into all stock
mutual funds do not by themselves have a meaningful effect on firm equity valuation. However, we find the combination of unexpected
funds flow and realized abnormal earnings have significant and important valuation effects. Importantly, the valuation impact
is greatest for those firms with high earnings growth potential that also operate in an environment characterized by high
information asymmetry.
相似文献
Raman KumarEmail: |
6.
U.S. banking regulators have proposed a bifurcated system of capital regulation where the largest, internationally active
banking organizations would be subject to significantly more risk sensitive regulatory capital requirements than are currently
in place, while most others would remain subject to the current rules. The proposed new capital regime has the potential to
affect the competitive landscape among banking institutions, particularly in the area of residential mortgage lending. We
analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed, bifurcated regulatory capital system on competition in the residential
mortgage market from the perspective of the theory of regulatory capital arbitrage. We then apply the theory and available
evidence to perform some benchmark calculations that suggest a significant, potential shift of market share and income to
the largest banking institutions in the mortgage market.
相似文献
James R. Follain (Corresponding author)Email: |
7.
Traditional executive stock options are often criticized for inherently weak links between pay and performance. Hurdle rate
executive stock options represent a viable improvement. However, valuing these options presents extraordinary analytic difficulties.
With a constant dividend yield the strike price becomes a path-dependent function of the stock price and exact analytic valuation
is intractable. To solve this problem, we apply the Monte Carlo valuation approach developed by Longstaff and Schwartz (Rev
Financ Stud 4:113–147, 2001) to estimate the value of path-dependent American options. We also extend the methodology to incorporate
the theoretical framework by Ingersoll (J Bus 79:453–487, 2006) to permit subjective valuation influenced by an executive’s
risk aversion.
相似文献
Charles Corrado (Corresponding author)Email: |
8.
Valuation of loss firms in a knowledge-based economy 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Recent research in accounting has documented a substantial increase in the number of loss firms. Existing theories on the
valuation of loss firms are based on adaptation/abandonment options or limited liability, assuming that these firms are operationally
distressed. In this paper, we show that many loss firms do not fit this stereotype and identify the primary value drivers
of this new type of loss firms. Our analysis helps resolve the puzzling negative relation between earnings and market value
documented in prior research. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of “hidden assets” or intangibles in the study
of loss firms.
相似文献
Jianming YeEmail: |
9.
Brent W. Ambrose Yildiray Yildirim 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(3):281-298
Previous research either assumes default free leases or leases subject to default risk using a structural approach. However,
structural credit risk models suffer from a common criticism that the firm’s asset value process is unobservable. We develop
a reduced form credit risk model for leases that avoids making assumptions regarding unobservable asset valuation processes.
Furthermore, we assume a correlated market and credit risk that provides us with a simple analytic formula for valuing defaultable
lease contracts. Numerical analysis reveals that tenant credit risk can have a substantial impact on the term structure of
leases. Finally, we use the model to demonstrate the implied lease term structure for a set of retail and financial firms
in the Fall of 2000.
相似文献
Yildiray YildirimEmail: |
10.
Ruey S. Tsay Yi-Mien Lin Hsiao-Wen Wang 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2008,31(4):331-358
The paper uses Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) and compares the relative predictability of the proposed simultaneous
model for contemporaneous stock price with a traditional single equation model used by the previous studies. The paper also
explores how residual income and value-relevant information affect firms’ equity price. The main results of the paper suggest
that the predictive ability and estimation efficiency of the simultaneous models in explaining contemporaneous stock prices
are better than those of the traditional single models. Moreover, investors will use the value-relevant information beyond
accounting earnings, namely analysts’ earnings forecasts, bankruptcy cost and agency cost, in equity valuation to make decision.
Note particularly, the higher the bankruptcy or agency cost is, the more important the role it plays in equity valuation and,
on average, the higher the accuracy of price prediction is.
相似文献
Hsiao-Wen WangEmail: |
11.
Equitable redemption is a feature of all common law mortgages that allows a borrower a chance to “redeem” the real estate
in the event of default. What is puzzling is that equitable redemption is universally enforced in all mortgages, including
commercial mortgages. The purpose of this study is to understand if there might be conditions under which the universal enforcement
of equitable redemption could be an efficient legal doctrine. We build a model of asymmetric information where the cash flows
from the investment are known to the borrower but not to the lender. We show that there exists a separating equilibrium where
high-risk borrowers choose to include equitable redemption (and pay a higher interest rate) while low-risk borrowers choose
not to (and pay a lower interest rate). We then show that there exist conditions under which a universal enforcement of equitable
redemption results in a higher total surplus than this separating equilibrium.
相似文献
Abdullah YavasEmail: |
12.
James B. Kau Donald C. Keenan Yildiray Yildirim 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2009,39(2):107-117
This paper uses a structural credit risk model, providing an analytical formula to estimate default probabilities implicit
in commercial mortgage backed security prices. Empirical studies of CMBS default have focused on the probability of default
depending on loan characteristics at the origination and market indices. Recent studies show that unobservable current loan-to-value
(LTV) ratio is a key state variable driving default. We update this variable using Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) property-type
indices over time. Later, we employ first passage time approach to study CMBS default using implied LTV.
相似文献
Yildiray Yildirim (Corresponding author)Email: |
13.
Yildiray Yildirim 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(2):93-111
This paper provides a comprehensive default estimation of commercial real estate loans with a complete commercial mortgage
backed securities (CMBS) loan history database. Standard survival models assume that eventually every observation will experience
the event. However, often there is a high proportion of censored observation in the sample. A mixture model is proposed to
disentangle the probability of “long-term survivorship” and the timing of default occurrence. Loans within the same geographical
area and property type tend to exhibit correlation in default incidence. A multilevel model is proposed to capture this correlation
within and between clusters.
相似文献
Yildiray YildirimEmail: |
14.
Juerg Syz Paolo Vanini Marco Salvi 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,36(1):23-35
Economists have forcefully argued for the introduction and use of property derivatives as a hedge against house price risk
(e.g. Shiller and Weiss, J. Real Estate Finance Econ., 19(1):21–47, 1999). The rationale for these financial instruments seems clear, as many households are heavily invested in
housing and standard financial instruments offer a poor hedge. In practice, however, most of the property derivatives available
have been targeted to meet the needs of institutional investors, not those of owner-occupiers. Building on the recent launch
of the first Swiss property derivative, we here propose index-linked mortgages tailored to retail consumers. The payments
of these mortgages depend on the corresponding housing market performance. We further price the instruments, discuss the stabilization
of the homeowner’s net wealth, and quantify the expected decrease in the mortgage default risk achieved by this immunization
effect.
相似文献
Juerg SyzEmail: |
15.
Investment opportunities,free cash flow,and stock valuation effects of secured debt offerings 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Shao-Chi Chang Sheng-Syan Chen Ailing Hsing Chia Wei Huang 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2007,28(2):123-145
This paper examines the role of investment opportunities and free cash flow in explaining the source of the stock valuation
effects of secured debt offerings. We find a significantly positive relation between a firm's investment opportunities and
its stock price response to announcements of secured debt issues. This evidence supports the investment opportunities hypothesis
that secured debt financing is more valuable for issuing firms with high growth opportunities. In contrast, we find a lack
of support for the free cash flow hypothesis. These findings hold even after controlling for other potentially influential
variables. Our study provides a better understanding of the relative importance of various potential determinants in explaining
the variation in the valuation impact of secured debt issues.
相似文献
Chia Wei HuangEmail: |
16.
We examine Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that went public between 1986 and 2004.
Consistent with previous studies, we find that REIT IPOs are associated with lower levels of underpricing relative to traditional
issues. We also find that REITs are associated with smaller file price revisions. Both findings are potentially attributable
to the lower level of uncertainty associated with pricing REITs. In contrast, using an alternative measure of issuance costs
that incorporates the share retention decision by preexisting owners, we find no significant difference between REIT and non-REIT
issues, suggesting the results of previous studies are not robust to various specifications of issuance cost and that preexisting
owners do not necessarily benefit from the lower level of underpricing. Additionally, we find no difference in the issuance
costs of equity versus mortgage REITs, particularly once we control for the use of umbrella partnerships.
相似文献
Mark K. PylesEmail: |
17.
Analyst Activity and Firm Value: Evidence from the REIT Sector 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Erik Devos Seow Eng Ong Andrew C. Spieler 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(3):333-356
This paper is the first to examine (1) properties of analyst forecasts and (2) effects of analyst following on firm value
for all REITs on CRSP, Compustat and I/B/E/S. Our results suggest that REITs operate in an information environment that has
changed over time. We find that for periods when the REIT industry was either in the developmental stage (pre-1992), or after
other structural changes in the industry (post-2000), more analysts cover REITs and forecasts are more accurate and less biased.
Further, we find that mortgage REITs are more transparent than other REIT structures and exhibit properties of analyst behavior
that are different from other types of REITs. Our investigation into the effect of analyst coverage on REIT value suggests
that analyst coverage increases REIT value (as measured by Tobin’s q) and that the causality does not run the opposite way.
相似文献
Andrew C. SpielerEmail: |
18.
We investigate if the SEC’s recently mandated disclosure of fees for audit and nonaudit services paid by firms to their incumbent auditors affected the market’s perception of auditor independence and earnings quality. Following the initial fee disclosures in 2001, we find that the market valuation of quarterly earnings surprises (earnings response coefficient) was significantly lower for firms with high levels of nonaudit fees than for firms with low levels of such fees. In contrast, in the year prior to the new fee disclosures, there was no reduction in earnings response coefficients for firms that subsequently reported high nonaudit fees. Our evidence suggests that mandated fee disclosures provided new information that was viewed by the market as relevant to appraising auditor independence and earnings quality.
相似文献
Bin KeEmail: |
19.
The objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between innovation and performance for German firms that went public
at the “Neuer Markt” during the period from 1997 to 2002. In the empirical analysis we investigate in particular whether initial
public offerings (IPOs) with more or higher quality patents outperformed IPOs with lower quality or no patented technology.
For this we measure the impact of patents on underpricing and long-run performance and explain the magnitude of these valuation
effects with the Fama–French value and growth factors, with patent-specific variables such as the number of IPC-classes, family
size, the number of backward and forward citations, as well as with industry variables. The empirical evidence suggests that
patents are a reliable indicator for the success and the short- and long-run performance of start-up technology firms that
went public and that the valuation effects are more pronounced for higher quality patents.
相似文献
Wolfgang BesslerEmail: |
20.
Christoph Hinkelmann Steve Swidler 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,36(1):37-52
This paper examines the use of futures contracts to hedge residential real estate price risk. We examine whether existing
futures contacts can effectively be used to offset volatility in national house prices. Little evidence of any simple systematic
relation between national prices and futures prices is found. Since house prices are not easily replicated with a portfolio
of existing futures contracts, a further implication is that the Chicago Mercantile’s introduction of a financial asset whose
value reflects house prices will help complete the market. Nevertheless, the success of the CME’s new derivative contracts
may be limited in light of state and regional house price correlations.
相似文献
Steve Swidler (Corresponding author)Email: |