A reapraisal of the capital goods sector in Hong Kong: The case for free trade

This paper was provoked by an earlier one by Fransman (1982) in which he examined the functioning of the capital goods sector in Hong Kong and came to the conclusion that it needed special protection by the government to allow it to reap the benefits of externalities essential for increasing its design and production capabilities. Statistical evidence is provided indicating that the capital goods sector as conventionally defined is prospering. Even following Fransman (1982), and equating the capital goods sector with the machine-producing sector, the latest survey of production indicates considerable dynamism. His case for infant industry protection is further weakened by consideration of the nature of the particular industrial structure of Hong Kong and the quality of the social relations that prevail between entrepreneurs. It is argued that the costs of singling out the capital goods sector for special treatment in terms of the impact of the highly competitive export-oriented manufacturing sector are likely to be high, while the theoretical benefits from externalities are liable to be illusory in a small economy.     

产品内分工的生产组织模式选择——基于中国产业角度的实证研究

本文基于不完全契约和交易成本的视角,构建了产业层面的产品内分工生产组织模式选择的理论模型,对跨国公司在选择中间品供应商时的生产组织模式进行了分析,并运用中国制造业的数据加以实证检验。结论表明:中间品行业的有形资本密集度越高,跨国公司使用垂直FDI的倾向越高;中间品行业的人力资本密集度越高、行业的市场厚度越大、沉没成本越大以及中间品市场环境越完善,跨国公司使用外包获取中间品的倾向越高。基于此本文通过实证分析指出:我国作为东道国在吸引垂直FDI和跨国外包时,资本密集度高的产业应优先吸收FDI;人力资本丰富、市场厚度大且沉没成本大的产业在吸收外包方面有优势,应优先发展跨国外包,这对中国目前新兴起的OFDI也提供了一定的借鉴意义。     

缅甸工业化及其政策初探

1988年新军政府上台后,缅甸实行进口替代和出口导向并重的工业化政策,采取国企私有化、建设工业区、鼓励私人和外资投资工业的举措,推动了缅甸工业化进程。但同时,缅甸工业化还存在加工、制造业发展严重滞后,石油、天然气、能源工业迅速发展的不平衡问题。     

RESOURCE FLOW BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY —The Chinese Experience*—

The author has previously been engaged in a series of comparative studies on the role of the agricultural sector among the developing countries, being in doubt about the validity of the generally recognized view that in those countries much of the capital for industrialization has been supplied from this sector. For the purpose of re-examining this view, in this article the author analyses the resource outflow-inflow position of the agricultural sector in the Chinese economy and presents a grave question: Can the agricultural sector provide sufficient capital for industrial development in developing countries?     

Turkish Clothing in Amsterdam: The Rise and Fall of a Perfectly Competitive Labour Market

While the Dutch textile industry declined rapidly, Turkish entrepreneurs created a growing industry for fashion goods with highly flexible demand in an informal sector that was initially tolerated by the authorities and attracted many undocumented immigrants. It led to the unusual spectacle of a labour market visibly in perfect competition; predictions of that model are clearly supported. Crackdown of the authorities led to the demise of the sector: production, capital, and labour all proved internationally mobile.     

工业化进程中的农业剩余劳动力转移——基于我国工业化资本排斥劳动的经验分析

二元经济理论是早期发展经济学的一个重要理论,它指出将传统农业部门的剩余劳动力向现代工业部门转移,不仅可以解决很多剩余劳动力的就业和增加这部分劳动力的收入,而且可以增加现代工业部门的产出和积累。反过来,现代工业部门的不断增长使之能吸收更多农业剩余劳动力。然而,我国农业剩余劳动力的转移却没有按照刘易斯过程一帆风顺的发展,而是表现了转移的艰难,目前我国还存在大量的农业剩余劳动力。针对这一现象,本文从我国工业化进程角度探索了它对我国农业剩余劳动力转移的影响,并认为目前的工业化进程并不十分有利于农业剩余劳动力转移,而是表现了资本排斥劳动的趋势。因此,本文认为在短期内用“两条腿走路”仍是解决我国农业剩余劳力就业问题的基本思路。     

The ‘Basic Needs’ approach to development vs the new international economic order: The significance of Third World industrialization

The question has recently been raised whether the basic needs approach to development conflicts with Third World aspirations for faster industrialization and the establishment of the New International Economic Order. This paper argues: (a) That to meet the basic needs of the poor in the Third World on a sustainable basis, it is necessary to transform its productive structures. In this transformation modern industry (including in most cases an appropriate capital goods industry) must play a central role. (b) That a properly conceived basic needs strategy should in general positively aid Third World industrial development. The paper concludes that accelerated industrialization and a substantially redistributive fiscal policy must be the two pillars of any effective basic needs programme.     

THE PROCESS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION IN TAIWAN

The industrialization of Taiwan has recently been in the limelight as an example of success rare among those underdeveloped countries which have received U.S. aid. This does not mean, however, that the achievement of industrialization in Taiwan has necessarily been due to U. S. aid. Cleraly, a more basic factor supporting the progress of industrialization has been the high level of accumulation in the agricultural sector, which has its historical foundation in the development of agriculture. The function of such accumulation has been to sustain the rapidly expanding surplus population; to provide an abundant labor force; and to form the base for capital formation for labor-intensive industry. The bold introduction of foreign capital and technology, resting upon this solid achievement, has provided the opportunity for industrial development.     

Bringing Culture to Macroeconomics

A two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed to examine the interaction between the cultural and noncultural sectors of the economy. It stresses three aspects of cultural economics that have been much discussed in the literature: (i) the productivity lag in the production of cultural goods, described by Baumol and Bowen (1996); (ii) the role of cultural capital in production; and (iii) the treatment of cultural goods as an acquired taste along the lines of Becker’s notion of positive rational addiction. The results suggest that the more significant the role played by cultural capital in the economy, the greater will be the growth rates of output in both sectors of the economy. The model is suggestive of future research into the importance of the macroeconomy on the cultural sector, and the potential importance of the cultural sector on the macroeconomy.     

Capital goods manufacture and the choice of technique in the maize - milling industry

The article discusses the structure of the market for milled maize products, emphasizing that products embody different levels of service as well as different physical characteristics. Different levels of capital intensity may be obtained by selecting alternative sources of supply for plant and machinery - this is especially important for a merchant mill producing a refined product, the core process of which is often regarded as technically rigid. A detailed comparison of Indian and West European equipment shows that for the market prices considered, the Indian equipment is likely to be preferred. The interrelationship between the structure of the capital goods sector, the rate of technical progress and choice of technique issues is discussed.     

Indonesia's Industrial Transformation 1 Part I

It is now possible to obtain a fairly complete picture of Indonesian industril development, based on the 1986 Economic Census and subsequent Updates, the mcorporation of the huge oil and gas sector, and die earlier industrial data base. The picture is one of dramatic growth and transformation since the late 1960s when Indonesia was one of the least industrialised countries for its size. In this paper we examine the pattern and changing structure of industry, focusing on industry composition, regional industrialisation, ownership, scale and wages. Indonesia's industrial transformation is evident not only in rapid Output and employment growth, but also in the transition to more capital and skill-intensive industries, a narrowing in the earlier very large (almost ‘dualistic’) productivity differentials, strong productivity and wage growth, a broadening of the industrial base outside Java, and a probable reduction in concentration levels (at least by establishment).     

Endogenous fertility cycles and childcare services

We construct a two-sector overlapping generation model with endogenous fertility, where one sector produces goods and the other produces childcare services. The elasticity of fertility-related expenditures on services is crucial for determining labor participation and whether fertility converges to a steady state with monotone or oscillation. If capital intensity in the goods sector is greater than the products of elasticity and capital intensity in the service sector, then capital per capita and fertility converge to a steady state monotonically. Conversely, they converge to a steady state with oscillations, otherwise. We find an inverse J-shaped relationship between fertility and elasticity.     

Is it still helpful to talk about proto‐industrialization? Some suggestions from a Catalan case study

The concept of proto‐industrialization is considered by many historians to have outlived its usefulness. This article seeks to argue the contrary, using a case study from Catalonia, in southern Europe, which provides a rare example of early industrialization on the periphery of Europe. Using an in‐depth study of an important proto‐industrial community, Igualada, the article puts forward two key arguments. First, it shows how the proto‐industrialization of the woollen industry and later the cotton industry shaped the transition to the factory. There were important continuities throughout in terms of human capital and organization of production; in particular, the persistence of the family as unit of production. Second, the impact of proto‐industrialization on the family economy is shown to have had important consequences for demographic behaviour. As in other areas of Europe, there was a notable impact on age at marriage and on marital fertility. Equally important, however, was the impact on mortality and migration, aspects that have been neglected by historians. In particular, the high infant and child mortality rates for Igualada suggest that historians need to rethink the effect of proto‐industrialization upon life chances.     

The Impact of Economic Reform on Productivity Growth in Chinese Industry: A Case of Xiamen Special Economic Zone

China's industrial and trade reforms were expected to stimulate growth in output and welfare by increasing the capacity of industry to absorb surplus factors of production, and by utilizing labour, capital, energy and materials more efficiently. The impact of the special economic zone reform policies on productivity and growth is assessed by studies of China's overall industrial sector performance and case studies in Xiamen and Shanghai Beijing, which is not subject to special policy initiatives, is used as a control. Although there were data limitations, several conclusions may be drawn. An increase in total factor productivity was found to have occurred in Xiamen during the reform period, but the creation of the special economic zone does not appear to have had a significant impact on productivity. Productivity performance in Beijing's state-owned industry was considerably poorer than that of total Xiamen industry, including state, collective and firms jointly owned with foreign investors, and was also lower than the productivity performance of Xiamen's state sector. The productivity performance of Xiamen's joint ventures and collectively owned firms was, however, considerably superior to the state sectors in both cities. Due to data constraints, the analysis of productivity in Shanghai was for a shorter period. Most of Shanghai's state-owned industry did better than the state-owned sector in Beijing but did not perform as well as the non-State sector in Xiamen over this period. Factor productivity in Shanghai industry was stagnant, Beijing's industrial productivity generally declined, but Xiamen's productivity improved considerably over the decade. One of the major strengths of this study is its access to new and more accurate disaggregated price indices to deflate capital investments on an industry by industry basis. Hence, the availability of the new capital stock deflator series should improve the total factor productivity estimates considerably.     

Falling behind and catching up: India's transition from a colonial economy

India fell behind during colonial rule. The absolute and relative decline of Indian GDP per capita with respect to Britain began before colonization and coincided with the rise of the textile trade with Europe. However, the fortunes of the traditional textile industry cannot explain the decline in the eighteenth century and stagnation in the nineteenth century as India integrated into the global economy of the British Empire. Inadequate investment in agriculture and consequent decline in yield per acre stalled economic growth. Modern industries emerged and grew relatively fast. The reversal began after independence. Policies of industrialization and a green revolution in agriculture increased productivity in agriculture and industry. However, India's growth in the closing decades of the twentieth century has been led by services. A concentration of human capital in the service sector has origins in colonial policy. Expenditure on education prioritized higher education, creating an advantage for the service sector. At the same time, the slow expansion of primary education lowered the accumulation of human capital and put India at a disadvantage in comparison with the fast‐growing economies of East Asia.     

An assessment of Ireland’s export-led growth strategy via foreign direct investment: 1960–1980

An Assessment of Ireland’s Export-Led Growth Strategy via Foreign Direct Investment: 1960-80. - Ireland’s export-led growth strategy using foreign direct investment as a vehicle for industrialization reveals many lessons for newly-industrializing economies in Europe and Asia. Using a relatively simple macroeconomic model of the Irish economy, this study sought to ascertain if government subsidies and grants were a significant locational determinant for foreign direct investment and if foreign direct investment led to the expansion of exports, capital formation, employment, and output. The results show that from 1960-80 Irish exports, output, and manufacturing employment grew, but so did the dependence and vulnerability of the Irish economy.     

Was technological change in the early Industrial Revolution Schumpeterian? Evidence of cotton textile profitability

Price and profit data between the 1770s and the 1820s from accounting records of three Lancashire cotton firms help to illumine the nature of the economic processes at work in early industrialization. Many historians have seen the Industrial Revolution as a Schumpeterian process in which discontinuous technological change led by the mechanized factories of the cotton industry created large profits for innovators that persisted in succeeding decades while technology slowly diffused. In this view imperfect capital markets limited the use of the new technology, keeping profits high. Reinvestment of these profits gradually financed expansion of innovating firms. The new technology dominated only after a long diffusion process. The evidence here, however, supports a more equilibrium view in which the industry expanded rapidly and prices fell in response to technological change. Expansion of the industry led to dramatic declines in the prices of cotton goods as early as the 1780s. There is no evidence of super-normal profits thereafter. Prices continued to fall and output expand thereafter as cost-reducing technological change continued.     

发达国家的工业化过程对中国的启示——德、美、韩三国工业化过程的特点及规律研究

通过分析德、美、韩三国的工业化过程特点,归纳出先行工业化国家工业化过程的普遍规律:工业发展均遵循从轻工业阶段到重化工业阶段的阶段发展路线;工业化水平距先进水平的差距越大,政府的干预强度越大;重视教育和技术创新;工业化进程与市场化密不可分。在分析三国工业化历程的普遍规律基础上探讨其对中国的启示。     

Tariff‐jumping foreign direct investment in protectionist era Ireland

The Committee on Industrial Organisation was established in the early 1960s to evaluate the level of preparedness of Irish industry for the imminent dismantling of the country's protectionist trade barriers. The Committee's sectoral reports list the 900 or so manufacturing firms that it surveyed and that together accounted for more than half of Irish manufacturing employment. From a range of archival sources, this article identifies the nationality of ownership of most of these firms, alongside their date of establishment and level of employment in 1960. Industrial grants data are used to strip out export‐oriented businesses that began to arrive in the 1950s. This makes it possible to estimate the employment share and sectoral presence of tariff‐jumping foreign firms. The latter is analysed through the lens of modern perspectives on foreign direct investment. The article also enhances our understanding of the interest‐group politics of the trade liberalization process.     

The political economy of income distribution in South Korea: The impact of the state's industrialization policies

A number of previous studies of economic growth and income distribution in South Korea, based largely on 1960s data, concluded that South Korea was an exception to Kuznets' ‘inverse U-pattern’ of income inequality. Also, it was regarded as an exception to the usual negative consequences predicted by dependency theory for an economy so dependent on foreign capital and world markets. This author presents more recent data — for the 1970s and early 1980s — in order to support his claim that the trend toward income equality that appeared in the 1960s was reversed in the 1970s. The author develops a thesis that stresses the role of the state in shaping the Korean political economy. He argues that it has been the strong South Korean developmentalist state in firm control of both domestic and foreign capital and its export-oriented industrialization policies that have been the principal determinant of the pattern of income distribution. He contests the usual explanation related to the level of economic development or external dependency per se.