信贷供给周期对企业投资效率的影响研究——兼论宏观经济不确定条件下的异质性北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文研究了信贷供给周期对企业投资效率的影响,并且探讨了这种影响在不同宏观经济不确定性条件下的异质性及其传导机制。结果发现,信贷供给增加会降低投资-投资机会敏感度,即信贷扩张降低了投资效率。从原因上看,信贷扩张降低了信贷资源配置效率,并且在更高程度上强化了大企业和国有企业的投资水平。进一步地,在宏观经济不确定性较高的时期,信贷供给增加对投资效率的负面影响较小。从传导渠道上看,在宏观经济不确定性较高的时期,信贷供给增加会使增长机会较多的企业获得更多贷款,并且使企业的投资意愿上升。本文揭示了中国信贷供给政策对投资效率的影响及其传导机制,对于新常态下如何更好地进行总需求管理具有一定的启示。     

银行信贷扩张与房地产价格关系研究

房地产部门资金的大部分来自银行系统,本文探讨了银行信贷扩张对房地产价格上涨的影响。采用博弈论相关理论,分析了银行向房地产部门提供信贷的决策成因,再对我国房地产信贷与房地产价格上涨的进行实证研究,分析信贷扩张在多大程度上影响房地产价格以及之间的相互关系。理论模型和实证结果均表明银行的信贷扩张是房价上涨的重要因素,并就此提出房价调控的相关建议     

新常态下欠发达地区信贷资源配置效率问题研究——以咸宁市为例

新常态下,经济增速下行压力加大,金融供给规模持续扩张,但信贷资源配置效率明显下降。本文以咸宁市为例,研究欠发达地区信贷资源配置效率下降的表现及其原因,并从政府、金融管理部门和金融机构等角度提出针对性的政策建议。     

中国信贷规模、结构、效率与经济增长关系的经验分析

本文通过采用带有控制变量的向量误差修正模型,利用协整关系检验法和格兰杰因果关系检验法,从银行信贷规模、信贷结构和信贷效率三个层面对中国银行信贷发展与经济增长之间的相关关系和因果关系进行了检验。研究结果表明,中国信贷发展在规模扩张、结构调整和效率变化三个层面均与经济增长之间具有长期关系和双向的因果关系,当前存在的银行离心倾向与金融资源体外循环将导致经济增长中的要素枯竭,不利于我国经济的稳定发展。同时,在中国经济体制转轨的背景下,中国经济增长的基础是复合型的,既依赖于金融资源的数量扩张,又来源于金融资源配置效率的提高。     

房地产价格上升能拉动经济增长吗——基于中国的实证研究

房地产市场的价格波动如何影响经济增长、结构调整以及民生福利,一直备受理论界和实务界的关注。在对房地产价格与实体经济关系等相关领域的国内外前沿理论进行梳理的基础上,本文利用经验数据分析了我国房地产市场与经济和物价等宏观因素之间的内在联系。结论表明,货币宽松在房地产市场泡沫形成中发挥了重要作用,而基于房价外生假设的研究可能高估了房地产市场对经济的拉动作用。后者在货币扩张和房市繁荣阶段尤为明显。其原因可能在于,房价上升后刚性需求带来的替代效应以及高收入阶层投机动机对消费的负面影响,可能导致企业部门资源配置扭曲和产业空心化,降低制造业等领域的投资动力。     

制造业企业房地产投资与企业杠杆率

摘 要：21世纪以来,中国制造业企业进行房地产投资是其“多元化”投资战略的主 要形式之一。本文利用2010-2020年中国 A 股上市制造业企业数据,研究了制造业企业 房地产投资对企业杠杆率的影响,发现制造业企业房地产投资能够提升企业杠杆率。机 制分析表明,制造业企业房地产投资通过发挥挤压效应和抵押效应进而提高企业杠杆率。 制造业企业房地产投资对企业杠杆率的提升作用在非国有企业和小企业中更显著。在区 分长期杠杆率和短期杠杆率后,制造业企业房地产投资对企业杠杆率的提升作用表现在 长期杠杆率方面,同时该提升作用显著提高了企业的财务风险。本文提出企业应当加大 研发创新,促进自身高质量发展;政府监管部门完善系列政策避免制造业企业盲目进行房地产投资而导致“企业空心化”。     

货币政策、房地产价格与企业投资行为研究

货币政策、房地产市场和实体经济的关系,是学术界长期关注的一个重要问题.本文利用青海省的宏观经济运行数据和微观企业财务数据,采用时间序列协整检验和面板数据多元回归分析等计量方法,对货币政策影响房地产价格和房地产价格影响企业投资的关系进行了初步探析.分析结果表明,货币政策能够有效影响房地产价格,信贷投放增多将会导致房地产价...     

偏低定价、贷款放宽与房地产价格——基于PW模型的中美比较及启示

Pavlov and Wachter(2004,2006)从市场竞争的角度发现住房信贷偏低定价是推动信贷过度扩张从而导致房地产价格膨胀的一个重要原因。本文认为流动性过剩将加剧这种现象,同时贷款放宽也是推动信贷过度扩张导致房地产价格上涨的重要原因。近年来在流动性过剩下中美两国住房信贷市场都出现了偏低定价和贷款放宽现象,其表现和产生的原因具有共性和个性。在中美比较的基础上,本文提出了对我国的几点启示。     

偏低定价、贷款放宽与房地产价格--基于PW模型的中美比较及启示北大核心CSSCISSCI

Pavlov and Wachter(2004,2006)从市场竞争的角度发现住房信贷偏低定价是推动信贷过度扩张从而导致房地产价格膨胀的一个重要原因。本文认为流动性过剩将加剧这种现象,同时贷款放宽也是推动信贷过度扩张导致房地产价格上涨的重要原因。近年来在流动性过剩下中美两国住房信贷市场都出现了偏低定价和贷款放宽现象,其表现和产生的原因具有共性和个性。在中美比较的基础上,本文提出了对我国的几点启示。     

房产价格泡沫、信贷市场结构对金融调控有效性的影响:广州、深圳信贷运行差异比较分析

2007年上半年,在相同的宏观调控背景和相近的地方经济运行态势下,华南地区两大经济中心城市信贷运行状况却显现出很大差异,广州信贷增长速度回落,而深圳信贷扩张势头则更为明显。透过对两市信贷运行结梅的比较分析,可以发现房地产价格走势和信贷市场结构这两个因素对金融调控政策传导的有效性具有显著影响。因此,下一步加强和改进金融宏观调控,需要将房地产信贷作为重点领域,加强对国有控股和股份制商业锻行信贷投放的引导,同时要把中小金融机构纳入结构性调控范围。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.