劳动力市场性别差距、生产结构转型与人口增长转变

本文从劳动力市场性别差距视角为理解生产结构转型与人口增长转变的互动关系提出了新的理论机制。以脑力劳动密集型生产部门比重提高为特征的生产结构转型将缩小性别工资差距，提高家庭生育养育机会成本并降低生育率，进而增加女性劳动相对供给，这又会进一步提高脑力劳动密集型生产部门比重。直接干预女性劳动定价政策可能会带来女性结构性失业，反而扩大劳动力市场性别差距，且不利于生产结构转型；单方面降低女性生育养育成本政策虽然能够提高生育率，但也可能产生类似不利影响；降低男性生育养育成本政策既可以提高生育率，又可以缩小劳动力市场性别差距，并促进生产结构转型；生育养育成本补贴支出由政府承担的影响比由企业承担更为温和。本文结果表明，促进人口长期均衡发展的政策应与缩小劳动力市场性别差距、推动生产结构转型的政策统筹谋划和协调推进。本文研究为“优化人口发展战略，建立生育支持政策体系”提供了一定的理论依据和参考。     

放松生育管控与家庭生育意愿——基于“全面二孩”政策的准自然实验

探究生育管控与家庭生育意愿的关系对人口发展规划、政策制定和家庭福利改善具有重要意义。基于经典的“理性经济人”假设,利用2014年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据,采用双重差分法检验“全面二孩”政策实施后家庭生育意愿是否发生显著改变,结果显示：一方面,这一放松生育管控政策使家庭有更大的生育选择空间和更多的生育机会,从而显著提升了家庭生育意愿;另一方面,政策调整对不同群体的影响存在异质性,女性群体、男性群体、城镇户口群体和高收入群体的生育意愿显著提升,其中,政策对女性生育意愿的提升作用大于男性。建议继续实施放松生育管控的政策,给予女性群体更多的生育支持,改善社会收入分配状况,提升城乡居民的收入水平,构建全生育周期的支持政策,以鼓励育龄人口生育。     

人口年龄结构与金融结构——宏观事实与微观机制

人口年龄结构是影响宏观经济的重要因素,不仅能够通过“人口红利”影响经济增长,也能通过金融资产需求作用于金融结构,进而影响经济增长。首先,本文基于宏观数据发现人口年龄结构与金融结构之间存在紧密联系,伴随老年人口占比的提高,金融结构更偏向间接融资,且以金融行为来衡量的风险偏好程度显著下降;其次,本文基于2013年中国家庭金融调查数据,从微观主体对金融资产需求的角度研究人口年龄结构对金融结构的影响机制,分析家庭人口年龄结构对风险资产参与行为及风险态度的影响。实证结果表明,家庭老年人口占比越高,家庭参与股票或基金投资意愿及比重越低;对于已持有风险资产的家庭,老年人口占比提高,家庭风险资产持有比重会降低。此外,家庭人口年龄结构会影响风险态度,家庭老年人口占比提升会显著降低风险偏好程度,这是其影响家庭风险资产参与行为的重要渠道。     

发达国家生育率下降的原因及其政策启示

本文总结了发达国家人口转型的历史,认为人口生育率下降、人口素质提高的转型过程,与发达国家经济发展水平、教育资源供给和社会保障政策等,具有密切的联系。这对我国的人口政策发展带来了三点启示：其一,人口规模和增长,与经济发展和生产率提高之间的关系很复杂;其二,降低人口生育率和提高人口质量的政策可以多样化发展,未来应当尝试以家庭自愿性生育计划代替政府强制性生育计划;其三,当前我国人口政策的重点,应当放在改善教育和保障老龄人口方面。     

社会保障、家庭养老与经济增长

本文通过引入社会养老替代家庭养老的经济机制,分析了社会保障制度对人口和经济增长的长期影响。加大社会保障力度可以降低年老人对子女赡养的依赖程度,促使家庭减少生育率。当父母生育更多的是为了将来获得养老保障,而从子女数量中获得的直接效用相对较低时,家庭会转为增加对子女的教育投入,从而促进人力资本与经济的增长。数值模拟的结果表明,相对于完全基金制,现收现付制替代家庭养老的作用更明显,对减缓人口增长,促进经济增长的作用也更显著。     

实现适度生育水平积极应对人口老龄化

人口是国家最重要的国情,人口均衡发展是中国中长期经济社会行稳致远的"基本盘".在对"十四五"规划纲要"实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略"进行全面解读的基础上,文章认为生育相关政策将从限制性、处罚性、管制导向的政策体系转向激励生育、便利生育、服务生育、更具包容性的全面生育支持导向.对完善生育支持体系提出建议:放开生育限制,营造良好的包容性生育养育环境;降低生养子女相关的医疗、住房和教育成本,减轻家庭生育养育教育负担;帮助育龄人群平衡工作与家庭,积极构建生育友好型社会;探索创新老幼同乐的代际互助模式,实现代际和谐共赢;重视迁移人口的婚姻生育,有效缓解家庭分离导致的婚姻家庭生活困境.     

促进人口高质量发展的税收政策完善北大核心

我国老龄化、少子化背后的生育意愿降低,人口分布不均衡背后的区域发展不均衡,人口素质亟待提升背后的劳动生产率不高,是人口高质量发展亟待应对的三大挑战。减轻税收负担提振生育意愿,发挥税收的调节作用优化人口分布,发挥税收的激励作用提高劳动生产率,将有助于提高人口素质、推动人口高质量发展格局的形成,支撑中国式现代化。本文研究探索了一个促进人口高质量发展的税收政策框架,包括从降低生育、养育成本上加大税收政策对家庭的优惠力度,从人口均衡发展角度增强税收政策与区域政策的协调配合,从人力资本积累角度体现税收政策支持人才培养与促进高质量就业。     

学前教育财政投入对女性就业的促进效应——基于我国省级面板数据的实证检验

三孩生育政策背景下,女性就业与生育的矛盾更为凸显,政府提供有质量的学前教育公共服务可以降低养育成本,有利于平衡女性生育与就业矛盾,是实施三孩生育政策配套措施的重要内容.利用省级面板数据对我国学前教育财政投入与女性就业之间的关系进行实证研究,结果显示学前教育财政投入对女性就业有显著促进作用.基于女性受教育水平与区域异质性分析发现,学前教育财政投入与女性受教育水平存在联动效应,学前教育财政投入对高学历女性就业促进作用更明显;经济发达地区学前教育财政投入对女性就业的促进作用更大.因此,地方政府应在继续增加普惠性学前教育供给的基础上,构建差异化成本分担机制,经济发达地区地方政府可适度提高分担比例,契合人口分布与流动特征合理规划学前教育布局,提高财政资金利用效率,并逐步拓展0-3岁幼儿托育公共服务供给,以缓解幼儿看护对女性就业的负面影响.     

应对人口老龄化挑战的生育政策研究

一个国家的生育政策对人口增长有重大影响。借助宏观统计数据实证分析发现,人口自然增长率反映了居民的生育意愿和生育政策,鼓励生育的政策有利于遏制我国人口自然增长率下滑的局面,改善人口结构。生育观念变化、就业竞争激烈、养育成本上升,财政政策配套不到位、限制生育的措施未被及时调整是当前生育政策实施的制约因素。建议通过加强财政配套保障、完善生育保险制度及生育福利制度、保障育儿家庭的就业权益、健全生育立法、推进教育公平、给予生产和经营儿童产品的企业优惠等措施,积极应对人口老龄化的挑战。     

对港口城市金融服务体系建设的思考

一个地区的经济发展程度,不仅取决于该地区能否充分利用资源要素禀赋之优势提升区域经济竞争力,而且也取决于经济增长过程中资本的积累、吸纳和产出能力。而金融体系的健全程度将直接影响资本积累、集聚的效率,影响资本积累、集聚的速度和成本的高低。宁波作为中国近年来发展最     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Dutch accounting in Japan 1609-1850: isolation or observation?

The trading station or factory maintained by the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was Japan's sole window on the Western world during most of the Tokugawa period (1600-1868). While many aspects of the factory's role in Dutch/Japanese cultural exchange have been researched little is known in the West of the accounting at the factory. This paper considers the possibility that double-entry bookkeeping employed by the Dutch may have been diffused to the Japanese. The available evidence is synthesized after considering the accounting system in the Dutch factory.