金融同业活动与实体企业经营风险——来自地区层面同业存单业务的证据

本文研究了地区层面金融同业活动对实体企业经营风险的影响。基于各省份金融机构开启同业存单业务的研究表明,地区层面金融同业活动显著提升了当地上市企业股价大幅下跌的风险。进一步研究表明,随着同业存单业务的发展,当地上市企业债务融资成本和风险水平有所上升,而业绩表现和市场价值有所下降。上述发现表明,企业融资链条变长后,信贷市场道德风险上升,部分企业因风险偏好增强导致经营风险上升,更容易突然出现负面事件而导致股价大幅下跌。本文的发现揭示了金融同业活动存在监管规避的可能性及其影响实体企业的潜在路径,凸显了完善金融监管以更好服务实体经济发展的重要现实意义。     

银行业同业存单的发展动力、潜在风险与改革路径

自2013年末央行重启同业存单以来,同业存单市场发展如火如荼,其功能也从推出伊始的主动调节负债流动性,逐渐转变成为银行扩表和套利的重要推手,其背后暗藏着较大的流动性与系统性风险隐患。本文从同业存单发展的市场环境出发,对同业存单的特点、供求主体与市场推动力、同业资金链条和潜在风险隐患进行系统分析;通过对其套利链条拆解和MPA考核体系下的流动性风险隐患评估,发现中小银行在强监管下面临较为严重的监管压力和流动性隐患。本文认为,同业存单只有逐步回归同业存单主动性负债管理功能,强化监管与流动性风险监测,还原业务本源实现风险透明可控,方可实现其规范发展和金融去杠杆,并提出了具体的改革建议。     

同业存单发展运行及风险防控建议 ——以江西省情况为例

同业存单近两年量价齐升,市场上议论同业存单的声音很多.为还原真实的同业存单,我们实地走访了4家城商行,从同业存单的属性、发展背景、运行现状入手,对江西省同业存单业务开展调查.笔者认为同业存单是央行推进利率市场化进程的重要工具,是未来金融市场中不可或缺的一环,因此本文在分析同业存单发展运行的现状的基础上,从风险防控的角度提出了促进同业存单健康发展的政策建议.     

银行同业业务与实体经济融资——基于货币供给创造的视角

本文基于同业业务货币供给创造的视角,分析银行同业业务对货币供给量和实体经济融资规模的不同影响及其对实体经济融资成本的影响、金融去杠杆的政策效果。研究结果表明,同业业务可以创造信用货币,但这些资金并非全部流向实体经济。虽然短期内同业业务的发展有利于实体经济融资,但长期内不再显著,反而会提升实体经济融资成本。为此,应持续推进金融去杠杆政策,降低实体经济融资成本,优化实体经济融资结构。     

同业业务治理是楼市泡沫破灭催命符

国内金融体系最大风险有三：影子银行泛滥、地方政府融资平台违约、楼市泡沫破灭。而这三者统统都与国内银行问同业市场有关。这三大风险很大程度上都是与国内同业市场所谓的金融创新有关。因此,对国内同业业务的治理就有可能成为国内楼市泡沫破灭的催命符。     

金融去杠杆视角的同业存单发展与监管分析

同业存单在金融机构加杠杆的过程中发挥了重要作用,金融去杠杆也需要重点关注同业存单。基于金融去杠杆的视角,本文从同业存单的特点、发行及投资主体、套利链条、套利风险,以及监管思路建议等方面进行系统分析,认为要逐步加强同业存单的监管,实现其规范发展和金融稳步去杠杆的有机统一。     

商业银行同业业务可持续发展策略研究

近年来商业银行同业业务发展迅速,表现出合作范围广、增长速度快、比重高、品种多样化等特征,存款形式转化、实体经济下滑、资金缺口压力、利率市场化冲击以及监管相对宽松是影响银行同业业务扩张的主要因素。实践表明,同业业务激增虽然拓展了银行的收入来源,但也存在一些问题,如利差不稳定、流动性风险聚集、干扰金融秩序、弱化宏观调控等,笔者认为,保持适度规模、明确合作对象、拓展低成本负债、创新同业产品、完善外部监管,有助于商业银行同业业务良性健康发展。     

关于同业拆借市场发展与监管的思考

近年来，同业拆借市场快速发展，市场交易主体不断增加，交易量大幅上升，市场利率波动幅度加大，同业拆借市场在调节金融机构流动性和货币政策传导方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文从工作实践出发，对当前同业拆借业务的特征以及同业拆借市场发展中存在的问题进行了思考和分析，提出了完善同业拆借监管的相关建议。     

地方法人金融机构同业业务存在的问题及建议

同业业务是金融机构之间开展的以投融资为核心的各项业务,主要包括同业融资和投资。随着金融创新的日益深入,同业业务得到较快发展,同业拆借、同业代付、买入返售、同业投资广泛应用于金融经营,这些同业业务在便于流动性管理、优化资源配置、服务实体经济等方面发挥了重要作用。但在近日对地方银行业法人金融机构同业业务现场检查中,发现存在很多问题,亟待解决和规范。一、地方法人金融机构同业业务存在的问题     

商业银行同业业务发展趋势研究

随着我国金融改革不断深入与利率市场化进程的加速,金融机构间交流与合作进一步加强,商业银行同业融资业务保持快速增长。同业业务具有减少资本占用、扩展利润增长、规避金融监管等多方面优势,因此为金融机构大力发展同业业务提供了充足动力。伴随同业业务规模的快速增长,其所带来的流动性风险与系统性风险也日益突出,商业银行同业业务亟需在顺应经济“新常态”的前提下探索新的发展方向。本文旨通过对中外商业银行同业业务发展的现状的比较,分析总结同业业务在我国经济新常态下的新特征,指明商业银行同业业务未来发展方向,为商业银行同业业务的发展提供参考。     

Accounting information and left-tail risk

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Several recent studies attribute stock price crashes to firms withholding bad news from financial disclosures before a stock price crash. Contrary to...     

银行价格竞争、融资约束与企业研发投资——基于“中介效应”模型的实证研究

近年来我国利率市场化改革积极推进,实体经济发展积极向创新驱动转型,一个亟须研究厘清的关键问题是,银行业竞争如何驱动企业创新活动？本文关注银行价格竞争对企业创新的影响,以2013—2018年沪深两市的上市企业为样本,采用“中介效应”因果分析模型,实证检验了银行价格竞争对企业研发投资的影响,并识别出以融资约束为中介渠道的作用机制。研究发现,银行价格竞争不仅会提高银行的风险容忍度,直接增加R&D投资的信贷供给意愿,而且还会通过降低贷款价格和增加贷款可得性来缓解企业整体的融资约束,间接促进企业创新活动。这一机制在解除贷款利率管制之后以及在民营企业层面体现得更加明显。本文的研究结果对于深化金融市场化改革、改善金融服务实体经济效果以及实施经济创新驱动发展战略,具有明确的政策启示。     

Stock price crash risk and internal control weakness: presence vs. disclosure effect

This study examines the stock price crash risk for a sample of firms that disclosed internal control weaknesses (ICW) under Section 404 of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). We find that in the year prior to the initial disclosures, ICW firms are more crash‐prone than firms with effective internal controls. This positive relation is more pronounced when weakness problems are associated with a firm's financial reporting process. More importantly, we find that stock price crash risk reduces significantly after the disclosures of ICWs, despite the disclosure itself signalling bad news. The above results hold after controlling for various firm‐specific determinants of crash risk and ICWs. Using an ICW disclosure as a natural experiment, our study attempts to isolate the presence effect of undisclosed ICWs from the initial disclosure effect of internal control weakness on stock price crash risk. In so doing, we provide more direct evidence on the causal relation between the quality of financial reporting and stock price crash risk.     

Audit firm's Confucianism and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China

This study examines the association between audit firm's Confucianism and stock price crash risk. We postulate that Confucian moral standards predict a mixed relationship between audit firm's Confucianism and stock price crash risk. Using a large sample of listed firms in China during 2006–2018, we find that audit firm's Confucianism is positively related with client's future stock price crash risk, implying that Confucianism of audit firm aggravates client's bad news hoarding behavior. The effect is more pronounced for client without female auditors and/or with closer personal relationship with auditors. Mechanism analysis shows that audit firm's Confucianism exacerbates crash risk by worsening audit quality and information transparency. Political discipline and external monitoring help to alleviate the negative influence of audit firm's Confucianism on stock price crash risk.     

Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis

Using a large sample of U.S. firms for the period 1995–2008, we provide strong and robust evidence that corporate tax avoidance is positively associated with firm-specific stock price crash risk. This finding is consistent with the following view: Tax avoidance facilitates managerial rent extraction and bad news hoarding activities for extended periods by providing tools, masks, and justifications for these opportunistic behaviors. The hoarding and accumulation of bad news for extended periods lead to stock price crashes when the accumulated hidden bad news crosses a tipping point, and thus comes out all at once. Moreover, we show that the positive relation between tax avoidance and crash risk is attenuated when firms have strong external monitoring mechanisms such as high institutional ownership, high analyst coverage, and greater takeover threat from corporate control markets.     

Does takeover activity affect stock price crash risk? Evidence from international M&A laws

We exploit the staggered initiation of merger and acquisition (M&A) laws across countries as a plausibly exogenous shock to the threat of takeover to examine whether the market for corporate control has a real effect on firm-level stock price crash risk. Using a difference-in-differences regression on a large sample of firms from 32 countries, we find that stock price crash risk significantly decreases following the passage of M&A laws. This effect is stronger for firms domiciled in countries with poorer investor protection and information environments and for firms with weaker firm-level governance. Further, financial reporting opacity and overinvestment significantly decrease in the post-M&A law periods. Our study suggests that an active takeover market has a disciplining effect on managerial bad news hoarding and leads to lower future crash risk.     

Social media information dissemination and corporate bad news hoarding

This paper investigates the role of social media in mitigating corporate bad news hoarding from a stock price crash risk perspective. Using a sample of public listed firms from 2008–2019, we find that social media (Guba) posts could significantly reduce firms’ stock price crash risks in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, we find that the information intermediation function and complementary corporate governance function enable Guba to achieve such an effect. In addition, investor attention mediates the relationship between Guba posts and management withholding bad news. Our result still holds after a series of robustness checks, including an RDD approach.     

无权处分场合买卖合同的效力与权利瑕疵担保

《民法典》第597条第1款的主要规范目的是,无权处分不影响买卖合同的效力。只要承认权利人的追认会产生所有权变动的效果,就适宜承认存在效力未定的处分行为。区分负担行为和处分行为,在解释论上具有可取之处。在传统债法上,无权处分致使给付不能的,存在适用债务不履行责任抑或权利瑕疵担保责任的争论,两方面规定在构成要件上有实质区别。我国《民法典》合同编实行救济进路,第三人享有所有权、抵押权等权利致使所有权不能转移的,当事人可以选择适用《民法典》第597条第1款或第612条,两者在违约责任的构成要件和效果上并无实质区别。《民法典》第612条中规定的第三人“享有权利”文义范围较窄,应当对其进行目的论扩张,将第三人“过去享有权利”且主张权利的一些情形纳入其中;即使买受人构成善意取得,仍可认定出卖人违反权利瑕疵担保义务。     

Financial distress risk and stock price crashes

This study uses 462,678 monthly observations of US-listed firms for the period 1990–2018 to document a strong positive relationship between short-term changes in financial distress risk and future stock price crashes. This result is economically significant as a one interquartile increase of the main explanatory variable in any month increases the probability of a stock price crash by 8.33% relative to its mean value. The findings withstand controls for a large array of variables, firm-fixed effect estimations, and alternative definitions of distress and crash risk measures; they are also robust to a range of tests conducted to buttress against endogeneity concerns. The study conducts analyses demonstrating that the positive distress-crash risk relationship is driven by managerial opportunism that seeks to camouflage bad news that has an adverse effect on firms' economic fundamentals. Accordingly, the findings corroborate an agency theory explanation for the impact of distress risk on stock price crashes. This study offers practical insights to investors, who should be vigilant of a firm's distress risk, as sudden short-term increases underscore withheld negative information pertinent to crash risk problems.