A theory of heterogeneous city growth

We consider an economy with three cities producing different outputs. Two cities produce intermediate goods, a type 1 city producing an intermediate “agricultural” good with capital and labor only, and a type 2 city producing an intermediate “industrial” good with capital, labor, and human capital. A type 3 city produces the final good which is obtained from the two intermediate goods and labor. The asymmetric introduction of human capital allows us to prove that the three cities experience, at equilibrium, heterogeneous endogenous growth rates which are proportional to the growth rate of human capital. We show that the “industrial” type 2 city is characterized by the larger growth rate while the “agricultural” type 1 city experiences the lower growth rate, and thus the type 3 city is characterized by a growth rate which is a convex combination of the two former growth rates. This implies that the relative size in terms of output of the “agricultural” city decreases over time. This property allows us to recover the empirical fact that most non‐agricultural production occurs in growing metropolitan areas. But, simultaneously, as we prove that total labor employed in each city is proportional to the total population, the relative population size distribution of cities is constant over time, as shown in empirical studies.     

Homoclinic bifurcation and global indeterminacy of equilibrium in a two-sector endogenous growth model

This paper considers an endogenous growth model that belongs to the same family as the Lucas model. In the Lucas model an external effect appears in the physical-goods sector, whereas in our model, it appears in the educational sector. In our model, this external effect yields multiple balanced growth paths. Our model undergoes a homoclinic bifurcation and exhibits global indeterminacy of equilibrium.     

人力资本模型综述——基于国内学者的研究

文章主要对2000年以后国内学者建立和发展的人力资本模型,对国内学者在人力资本经济学定量研究方面的成果进行了概括.全文共分四部分,第一部分概述了我国早期人力资本研究的情况;第二、三部分分别对宏观和微观人力资本模型进行了综述;第四部分是对我国人力资本经济学研究现状的评述及前景展望.作为一篇综述性的论文,期望它为国内学者将来的人力资本研究提供参考.     

Growth Constraints and Determinants of a South Pacific Island in a Global Economy: A Study of Fiji

Abstract

In a global economy, the South Pacific islands face unique constraints to growth. The study investigates whether Fiji was benefited by three-decade old open trade policies. Through a multivariate cointegration analysis, the study establishes the existence of a long-run relationship between open trade policy and physical and human capital resources. Although physical capital had a positive impact on growth, the existing complementary relationship between two kinds of capital requires that a threshold between physical and human capital needs to be attained before any negative influence on growth can be transformed into positive impact.     

A generalized multi-country endogenous growth model

The transitional dynamics of open-economy endogenous growth models are largely unexplored. The present paper fills this gap in the literature. By applying the familiar Travis–Dixit–Norman (Dixit and Norman, Theory of International Trade, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1980) approach to a general class of growth models, it provides original results on the transitional dynamics of the multi-country open-economy versions of several prominent special cases, including the models of Romer (J Polit Econ, 94:1002–1037, 1986; J Polit Econ 98:S71–S102, 1990), Lucas (J Monet Econ, 22:3–42, 1988), Grossman and Helpman (Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1991a, Chaps. 3 and 4; Rev Econ Stud 58:43–61, 1991b), Jones (J Polit Econ, 103:759–784, 1995a), and Segerstrom (Am Econ Rev, 88:1290–1310, 1998). This approach also shows that, in the class of models considered, the question of whether or not international economic integration accelerates growth in the long run is equivalent to the question of whether or not scale effects prevail.      

The relationship between human capital and the economic growth in China

Human capital is one of the most important factors to promote economic growth. It is critical both on theory and practice to study how human capital investment and accumulation promote the economic growth in China. The thesis takes Lucas＇s Human Capital Spillover Model as the analysis tool. Through SPSS 14.0 software, it uses the serial data from 1992 to 2006 to analyze the human capital＇s correlation and contribution to the economic growth, so as to find out why the human capital contribution to economic growth is low. And then, in order to increase the human capital accumulation, it puts forward the relative strategies which include paying more attention to the importance of human capital, greatly developing education, improving the quality of human capital and investing more on the human capital of enterprises.     

制度内生化的经济增长模型

本文在内生经济增长的框架下,在描述制度变迁的动态过程的基础上,将制度因素纳入经济增长模型并作为其内生变量,力求从物质资本、人力资本、技术进步和制度创新等角度全面反映经济增长,并揭示制度创新影响经济增长的内在机制,得出结论,有效的制度安排是经济高速增长的决定性因素。     

Sunspots and Hopf bifurcations in continuous time endogenous growth models

First we treat a three-dimensional continuous time abstract stationary model that includes one predetermined variable and two non-predetermined variables. We construct stationary sunspot equilibria in this model under the following two alternative conditions: (i) a steady state has two stable roots and one unstable root; and (ii) A closed orbit has a two-dimensional manifold on which it is asymptotically stable. Next, we apply these results to the models due to Lucas and Romer that undergo Hopf bifurcations for some parameter values. We construct sunspot equilibria in these models.     

人力资本对上海市经济增长的作用研究

改革开放30年以来,上海市的经济增长取得了巨大的成就。文章从人力资本要素这个角度研究了上海市1978--2008年的经济快速增长的原因,并对各种要素在不同时期对经济增长的贡献进行了分解,发现上海经济快速增长有其内生性原因,其中人力资本的作用明显＇尤其是人力资本的间接贡献作用很大。     

The empirics of growth

Summary This study explores the long-run dynamics of economic growth, with particular reference to The Netherlands. The time span covered extends backwards to the mid-nineteenth century, using new time series on disaggregated physical and human capital stocks for the period 1850-1913. Economic growth in the nineteenth century is shown to have had a strong physical capital-using bias, initially concentrated in buildings and infrastructure. The close relationship between investment in machinery and economic growth did not begin to take shape until the end of the nineteenth century, to increase in strength in the course of the twentieth century.An earlier version of this article was published as a research memorandum of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GD 12), University of Groningen, October 1994. This article is based on research sponsored by the Faculty of Economics of the University of Groningen, and by the Foundation of Economic, Social, and Spatial Sciences (ESR), which is part of The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). For helpful comments, we thank Jan Jacobs, Professor W.H. Buiter, Bart van Ark, Rainer Fremdling, participants of the Economic History colloquium at the University of Groningen and of the European Historical Economics Society's Summer School 1994 (Florence), especially Professor Alan Taylor (Northwestern University), participants of the Quantitative Economic History Conference 1995 (Cambridge U.K.), and two anonymous referees. Of course, the usual disclaimer holds.     

安徽省人力资源状况与经济发展关系的实证分析

文章通过构建回归模型，分析了安徽省人力资源与经济发展之间的关系。实证结论表明高素质人力资源对于经济增长具有较大促进作用，所以，需要通过加大教育投入、建设人才环境进一步开发安徽省人力资源从而促进经济快速发展。     

The rise and decline of industrial foundations as controlling owners of Swedish listed firms: the role of tax incentives

ABSTRACT

Beginning in the interwar period, industrial foundations became a vehicle for corporate control of large listed firms in Sweden. In the 1990s they were replaced by wealthy individuals who either directly own controlling blocks or who own them through holding companies. We study potential explanations for this change and propose two tax-related candidates: shifts in the relative effective taxation across owner types and the dismantling of inheritance taxation that prevented the generational transfer of the ownership of large controlling blocks. We exploit newly computed marginal effective capital income tax rates across capital owners, accounting for all relevant factors, including rules governing tax exemptions. We show that the 1990–91 tax reform, abolition of the wealth tax for controlling owners in 1997, 2003 tax exemption of dividends and capital gains on listed stock for holding companies with a voting or equity share of at least 10 percent, and abolition of the inheritance and gift taxes in 2004 reversed the rules of the game. Recently, control has largely been wielded through direct ownership, and the role of foundations is rapidly declining. These findings point to the importance of tax incentives for the use of foundations as the control vehicle of listed firms.     

人力资本存量、R&D投资与中国工业增长转型

工业是中国当前三大产业中的支柱产业,工业增长模式的体制转轨很大程度上反映了中国经济增长模式的转轨方向和现状。文章借助1990年-2007年的统计数据进行计算和实证检验发现：中国工业企业从上世纪90年代初以依靠人力资本存量和物质资本存量积累的增长模式转变为新世纪以来以R＆D投资带来的技术进步和工业劳动力投入为主要产出支撑的新模式,虽然这种增长转轨并未彻底完成,但已经证明集约化增长模式将逐步成为中国经济可持续发展的主要途径。     

International capital market integration: Implications for convergence, growth, and welfare

This paper studies the effects of international capital market integration on welfare and the speed of adjustment in a two-region endogenous growth model. Monopolistic firms undertake research and development (R&D) to improve their productivity level. National and international knowledge spillovers affect the returns to R&D. The two countries differ with respect to the initial productivity level and R&D capability (which is a proxy for human capital and structural policies). Long-run productivity gaps are determined by the difference in R&D capability. Over time, there is conditional convergence in productivity levels. The speed of convergence is larger with integrated international capital markets than without. Long-run gaps in consumption levels are larger in the former situation than in the latter. Capital market integration harms (benefits) the leading (lagging) region if domestic spillovers are more important than international spillovers and differences in R&D capabilities are small.The authors research is supported by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. He thanks Lucas Bretschger, Theo van de Klundert, and Richard Nahuis, Thomas Steger, and Helmut Wagner for comments on an earlier version.     

安徽省人力资源状况与经济发展关系的实证分析

文章通过构建回归模型,分析了安徽省人力资源与经济发展之间的关系。实证结论表明高素质人力资源对于经济增长具有较大促进作用,所以,需要通过加大教育投入、建设人才环境进一步开发安徽省人力资源从而促进经济快速发展。     

Human capital quality and the regional economic growth: Evidence from China

China's economic development has advanced from a high-speed to a high-quality growth stage in recent years. The optimization and upgrading of the economic structure require high-quality human capital to support an innovation-driven economy. In this paper, a general equilibrium model of human capital (Xiang & Yeaple, 2018) is applied to estimate the cognitive and non-cognitive productivities based on Chinese provincial-level macro-data and individual labor's micro-data from 2008 to 2017. The weighted power mean of cognitive and non-cognitive productivities helps calculate the provincial-level human capital quality index (HCQI), which provides a realistic estimate of human capital quality. We find that the improvement of the HCQI leads to convergence in economic growth in China's provinces. HCQI can help explain the differences in economic growth levels in different regions of China. Our study provides a constructive step in understanding cognitive and non-cognitive abilities and HCQI in China, which could help guide education investment policy in China and its provinces.     

自主创新理论溯源及现实分析

自主创新是我国面向未来的重大战略选择。作者在本文中通过人力资本理论及内生经济增长理论尝试自主创新的理论溯源,并着力从宏观和微观层面探讨我国当前提升自主创新能力的必要性和可行性,指出唯有走自主创新之路方可实现社会经济的可持续发展。