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We study local interaction within a population located on a connected graph. Subjects engage in several bilateral interactions during each round in a generalized Prisoners' Dilemma (PD). In each round of play one randomly selected player gets the possibility to update the action he plays in this PD. All individuals use the update rule Win Cooperate, Lose Defect, a multi-player variant of Tit-for-Tat. Theoretical results on the set of stable states of the associated dynamics are provided for the cases with and without rare mutations. Simulations provide insight into the probability distribution over these stable states. In both cases a rather high probability is assigned to stable states with a moderate level of cooperation implying that dominated strategies are used. Furthermore, the probability of reaching the stable state with Nash equilibrium play is small. 相似文献
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Carsten Krabbe Nielsen 《Economic Theory》2009,40(3):473-496
We extend our previous result on simple stable Markov (SSM) processes to the case where the state space is continuous. As
anapplication we show the existence of a competitive general equilibrium of a cobweb model where price volatility is generated
both by exogenous shocks and by stochastic, so called generating variables (that may be interpreted as sunspots) that govern
the correlation of the rational beliefs of individual agents.
I would like to thank Danish Social Science Foundation, The Carlsberg Foundation, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics
(SITE) and Universita Cattolica for financial help. I would also like to thank Trinidad Casasus, Mordecai Kurz, an anonymous
referee as well as participants at SITE, ESAM (2004) and ESEM (2004) for helpful discussions and comments. Peter Harremoes
provided me with an illuminating counter example and Hiro Nakata provided many comments that helped improve the exposition
of the paper. Part of this work is from a paper previously circulated under the title: “Sunspot rational belief structures:
anonymity and endogenous uncertainty”. 相似文献
4.
This study examines the worker transitions across labor market states including formal/informal division using panel data of 2006 to 2012 from Egypt. We generate a broad set of facts about labor market dynamics in Egypt. We first develop transition probabilities by gender across different labor market states including formal/informal sectors utilizing Markov transition processes. Government employment is the most persistent labor market state for both men and women and the out of labor force is the second most persistent labor market state for women. Unemployment is the most mobile labor market state. Informal private wage work and self‐employed–agriculture are also relatively mobile labor market states. We next identify the effects of individual, household and job characteristics on different mobility patterns by estimating multinomial logit models. We find that gender, age, education, experience, and several sectors of economic activity are associated with the transition probabilities between the labor market states considered such as formal wage, informal wage, self‐employment, unemployment, government employment, and out of labor market. Education, in particular, university degree or above is noted to play a vital role in the probability of transitions across several labor market states. 相似文献
5.
We propose a simple single parameter functional form for the Lorenz curve. The new specification is fitted to existing data sets and is shown to provide a better fit than existing single parameter Lorenz curves for the given data. 相似文献
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Income distribution remains a crucial topic in economic analysis, among other reasons, due to the increase in inequality in recent years, as one of the effects of the Great Recession. In this context, proposing parametric models that represent the full distribution through a small number of parameters arouses great interest as an instrument for economic analysis. This paper studies the ability of log Student’s t distribution to model the size distribution of income due to its potential to reproduce the effect of a mode around low-incomes as well as its precision in capturing the degree of kurtosis of empirical distributions. These characteristics make the log-t an ideal analysis tool, for instance, for exploring the effects of anti-poverty policies. The model has been fitted to income data for the EU25 and for several years. The conclusion is that the log Student’s t distribution offers the best fit in the vast majority of cases. 相似文献
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Johannes Sauer 《Empirical Economics》2006,31(4):1061-1087
Parametric efficiency analysis is one of the most investigated areas in applied production economics. Nevertheless, the vast majority of empirical studies are not accompanied by a thorough theoretical interpretation of the underlying functional form and the obtained estimates. The robustness of policy suggestions based on inferences from efficiency measures nevertheless crucially depends on theoretically well-founded estimates. This research contribution adresses parametric efficiency measurement by critically reviewing the theoretical consistency of recently published technical efficiency estimates. The theoretical concerns are verified by empirical applications confirming the need for a posteriori checking the regularity of the estimated frontier by the researcher and, if necessary, the a priori imposition of the theoretical requirements. Bootstrapping based stochastic simulations of a simple parametric efficiency model by using different flexible functional forms confirmed the severeness of the theoretical concerns especially with respect to the merely locally restrictable translog specification. 相似文献
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在会计主体假设下,商品生产、流通、消费的会计核算一般不具有连续性。而商品生产、流通、消费是前后逻辑相关的连续过程,若以商品为主体来分析,商品生产、流通、消费的会计核算在逻辑上也具有连续性,并可全面完整反映商品的会计核算,保证会计信息的可靠、相关、全面。 相似文献
9.
以DEA模型、DEA-Malmquist生产率指数为研究工具,利用2006—2011年我国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的截面数据,对我国省域层面的产学研合作效率及效率持续性进行了实证分析。研究结果显示:我国产学研合作效率较低,产学研合作为DEA有效、弱DEA有效和非DEA有效的省区数量分别占样本省区总数的26.7%、10%和63.3%,其中非DEA有效的省区存在不同程度的投入冗余和产出不足问题;83.3%的样本省区的产学研合作全要素生产率有程度不同的增长,说明省域产学研合作效率保持了较好的增长态势,这种增长主要来自于技术进步,63.3%的样本省区的产学研合作技术效率呈下降趋势。最后,针对存在的问题提出政策建议,包括加强产学研合作、实现产学研成果的技术转移和有效应用、提高产学研合作的管理水平等。 相似文献
10.
中国区域经济增长俱乐部趋同及其演变分析--基于时空加权马尔科夫链的预测 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
利用马尔科夫链、空间马尔科夫链及时空加权马尔科夫链等方法,分析了中国所有地级市经济增长的趋同俱乐部空间分布及其演变趋势,认为:(1)中国地级市经济增长存在低水平、中低水平、中高水平及高水平等四个趋同俱乐部。(2)低水平趋同俱乐部主要集中在我国中部的落后地区及西部边远地区,且多为少数民族聚集地。高水平趋同俱乐部主要集中在我国中西部资源型城市及沿海城市。(3)邻居越发达,越有利于趋同俱乐部的演变。(4)从极限分布来看,与低收入邻居相邻未来67.5%的可能仍然属于低收入类型,与高收入邻居相邻未来65.2%的可能属于高收入类型。最后,提出制定有梯度的区域适配型政策、提高基本公共服务水平、以企业间的合作为纽带及以新型中小城镇及城市群为增长极等政策建议。 相似文献
11.
The problem of dating the business cycle has recently received many contributions, with a lot of proposed statistical methodologies, parametric and non-parametric. In general, these methods are not used in official dating, which is carried out by experts, who use their subjective evaluations of the state of economy. In this work we try to apply some statistical procedures to obtain an automatic dating of the Italian business cycle in the last 30 years, checking differences among various methodologies and with the ISAE chronology. The purpose of this exercise is to verify if purely statistical methods can reproduce the turning points detection proposed by economists, so that they could be fruitfully used in official dating. To this end parametric as well as non-parametric methods are employed. The analysis is carried out both aggregating results from single time series and directly in a multivariate framework. The different methods are also evaluated with respect to their ability to timely track (ex post) turning points. 相似文献
12.
Casey G. Rothschild 《Journal of Economic Theory》2005,120(2):300-274
Kajii and Morris (J. Econ. Theory 82 (1998) 267) provide necessary and sufficient conditions for two priors to be strategically close. The restrictiveness of these conditions establishes that strategic behavior can be highly sensitive to the assumed prior. Their results thus recommend care in the use of priors in economic modelling. Unfortunately, their proof of a central proposition fails for zero probability types. This comment corrects their proof to account for these cases. 相似文献
13.
Summary. With as the commodity space, the equilibrium price density is shown to be a continuous function of the commodity characteristics. The result is based on symmetry ideas from the Hardy-Littlewood-Pólya theory of rearrangements. It includes, but is not limited to, the case of symmetric (rearrangement-invariant) production costs and additively separable consumer utility. Examples arise in continuous-time utility pricing, e.g., electricity pricing. In this context, a continuously varying price has two uses. First, it precludes demand jumps that would arise from discontinuous switches from one price rate to another. Second, in the problems of operating and valuing hydroelectric and pumped-storage plants (studied elsewhere), price continuity guarantees that their capacities (viz., the reservoir and the converter), the energy stocks, and in the case of hydro also the river flows, have well-defined marginal values.Received: 9 May 2001, Revised: 8 July 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C62, D51, D58, L94. Correspondence to: Anthony HorsleyPart of this work (CentER DP 9014) was completed at the Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, whose financial support is gratefully acknowledged. The extension to storage was supported by ESRC grant R000232822. We also thank the referee and the editor for their comments. 相似文献
14.
This paper shows that two versions of the chi-square test statistics are equivalent, whether it is constructed from the entire cells in a partition of the support or one less cells. This equivalence holds not only asymptotically but also for each sample realization. 相似文献
15.
Hwa-Taek Lee 《Applied economics》2013,45(16):2279-2294
Standard unit root tests are not very powerful in drawing conclusions regarding the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Rather than asking whether PPP holds throughout the whole sample period, we examine, in this study, if PPP holds sometimes by employing Hamilton-type (1989) Markov regime switching models. When at least one of multiple regimes is stationary, PPP holds locally within the regime. There are indeed various reasons that we should expect that the persistence of real exchange rates changes over time. Employing five real exchange rates spanning more than 100 years, we find herein strong evidence that the strength of PPP varies during the sample periods and that there exist stationary regimes in which PPP holds. Throughout the article, we also make comparisons to previous Markov regime switching estimation results by Kanas (2006) on the same data series. The new Markov switching model selection criterion of Smith et al. (2006), which is devised especially for discriminating Markov regime switching models, unambiguously indicates a preference for the Hamilton-type Markov regime switching model employed in this study. We also find that the evidence for PPP is not much different across different nominal exchange rate arrangements. 相似文献
16.
Is there an asymmetric effect of monetary policy over time? A Bayesian analysis using Austrian data. 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Sylvia Kaufmann 《Empirical Economics》2002,27(2):277-297
The present paper assesses whether monetary policy effects are asymmetric over the business cycle by estimating a univariate
model for GDP including additionally the first difference of the 3-month Austrian interest rate as a measure for monetary
policy. The asymmetry of the effects is captured by allowing for state-dependent parameters where the latent state variable
follows a Markov switching process. The model is estimated within a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation
methods. Model selection and specification tests are performed by means of marginal likelihood. The results document significant
negative effects of monetary policy during periods of below-average growth, while the effect seems insignificant during periods
of normal or above-average growth. These results corroborate those derived in theoretical models assuming price rigidities
and implying a convex supply curve. Additionally, the concern of using appropriate state-identifying restrictions is raised
to obtain an unbiased posterior inference. Finally, the analysis concludes by assessing the robustness of the results with
respect to alternative measures of monetary policy.
First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001 相似文献
17.
通过实例剖析,介绍了社会科学研究领域定量分析的研究过程和方法。科学研究是具有明确目的的、对事物之间关系严谨、缜密的探索;它具有整体性,通过系统的程序和过程,在理论的指导下进行。科学研究必须有好的研究问题、理论设计、可以信赖的数据、正确的模型和分析方法、客观的分析结果展示。掌握正确的研究过程和方法将会产生高质量的研究成果。 相似文献
18.
This article documents the business cycle characteristics of the Chinese economy by adopting both nonparametric and parametric methodologies. The two approaches are applied to relevant macroeconomics indicators – Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production (IP) indices – aiming to investigate the growth cycle (deviation cycle). We provide a clear chronology of the Chinese growth cycle. One significant characteristic of the Chinese growth cycle is the relatively direct influence of government policies. However, recently these policy effects have become less significant when compared to global economic influences. Our study provides an enhanced understanding of the properties of business cycle dating algorithms and as such contributes to future Chinese business cycle research. 相似文献
19.
Cristiano Antonelli 《Empirica》1997,24(1-2):137-156
Technological cooperation has become more widespread in recent years. Percolation processes have been studied in physics as the outcome of four classes of forces termed as density, external pressure, connectivity and receptivity. In this paper the methodology of percolation processes has been adapted to interpret the dynamics of knowledge flows within innovation networks as communication systems and to understand the evolution of technological cooperation among firms both within and among industries. 相似文献
20.
《Journal of medical economics》2013,16(2):202-212
Abstract