商品生产、流通、消费连续性及其会计核算连续性分析

在会计主体假设下,商品生产、流通、消费的会计核算一般不具有连续性。而商品生产、流通、消费是前后逻辑相关的连续过程,若以商品为主体来分析,商品生产、流通、消费的会计核算在逻辑上也具有连续性,并可全面完整反映商品的会计核算,保证会计信息的可靠、相关、全面。     

Payoff continuity in incomplete information games: a comment

Kajii and Morris (J. Econ. Theory 82 (1998) 267) provide necessary and sufficient conditions for two priors to be strategically close. The restrictiveness of these conditions establishes that strategic behavior can be highly sensitive to the assumed prior. Their results thus recommend care in the use of priors in economic modelling. Unfortunately, their proof of a central proposition fails for zero probability types. This comment corrects their proof to account for these cases.     

Economic Theory and Econometric Practice: Parametric Efficiency Analysis

Parametric efficiency analysis is one of the most investigated areas in applied production economics. Nevertheless, the vast majority of empirical studies are not accompanied by a thorough theoretical interpretation of the underlying functional form and the obtained estimates. The robustness of policy suggestions based on inferences from efficiency measures nevertheless crucially depends on theoretically well-founded estimates. This research contribution adresses parametric efficiency measurement by critically reviewing the theoretical consistency of recently published technical efficiency estimates. The theoretical concerns are verified by empirical applications confirming the need for a posteriori checking the regularity of the estimated frontier by the researcher and, if necessary, the a priori imposition of the theoretical requirements. Bootstrapping based stochastic simulations of a simple parametric efficiency model by using different flexible functional forms confirmed the severeness of the theoretical concerns especially with respect to the merely locally restrictable translog specification.     

卫生经济评价中马尔可夫系列模拟方法介绍

目的:扩展对马尔可夫系列计算机模拟方法的理解和认识,以便在未来的卫生经济评价实践中更准确地模拟现实,进而做出更科学的决策。方法:通过查阅、综合总结国外相关文献,给出马尔可夫模型中的相关概念,全面介绍了卫生经济评价中常用的计算机模拟方法。结果与结论:马尔可夫系列计算机模拟方法互为补充,各自有着擅长处理的问题。另外,模拟方法并不仅限于本文论述的,它正处于不断的发展和完善之中。     

Estimating the stationary distribution of a Markov chain

Summary. Let be a Markov chain with a unique stationary distribution . Let h be a bounded measurable function. Write and . This paper explores conditions for the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimate of of assuming the existence of a solution to the Poisson equation . Our framework covers the case of nonirreducible Markov chains arising in many growth models in economics. Received: October 8, 2001; revised version: April 8, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" Thanks are due to Professors Rabi Bhattacharya, Nicholas Kiefer and Timothy Vogelsang on an earlier draft for helpful conversations, and a referee for insightful comments. Correspondence to: M.Majumdar     

On the level of cooperative behavior in a local-interaction model

We study local interaction within a population located on a connected graph. Subjects engage in several bilateral interactions during each round in a generalized Prisoners' Dilemma (PD). In each round of play one randomly selected player gets the possibility to update the action he plays in this PD. All individuals use the update rule Win Cooperate, Lose Defect, a multi-player variant of Tit-for-Tat. Theoretical results on the set of stable states of the associated dynamics are provided for the cases with and without rare mutations. Simulations provide insight into the probability distribution over these stable states. In both cases a rather high probability is assigned to stable states with a moderate level of cooperation implying that dominated strategies are used. Furthermore, the probability of reaching the stable state with Nash equilibrium play is small.     

Non-stationary,stable Markov processes on a continuous state space

We extend our previous result on simple stable Markov (SSM) processes to the case where the state space is continuous. As anapplication we show the existence of a competitive general equilibrium of a cobweb model where price volatility is generated both by exogenous shocks and by stochastic, so called generating variables (that may be interpreted as sunspots) that govern the correlation of the rational beliefs of individual agents. I would like to thank Danish Social Science Foundation, The Carlsberg Foundation, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics (SITE) and Universita Cattolica for financial help. I would also like to thank Trinidad Casasus, Mordecai Kurz, an anonymous referee as well as participants at SITE, ESAM (2004) and ESEM (2004) for helpful discussions and comments. Peter Harremoes provided me with an illuminating counter example and Hiro Nakata provided many comments that helped improve the exposition of the paper. Part of this work is from a paper previously circulated under the title: “Sunspot rational belief structures: anonymity and endogenous uncertainty”.     

An alternative approach for testing for linear association for two independent stationary AR(1) processes

Spurious correlations occur when two independent time series are found to be correlated according to the typical statistical procedure for testing the null hypothesis of zero correlation in the population. Using a Monte Carlo analysis, this study examines the spurious correlation phenomenon for two independent stationary AR(1) processes and it finds that if an alternative testing procedure is applied, spurious behaviour is eliminated using the variance of the sample correlation coefficient of these two series, suggested by Bartlett (1935).     

The balance between size and power in testing for linear association for two stationary AR(1) processes

The classical statistical procedure in testing the null hypothesis of zero correlation for two independent stationary AR(1) processes produces spurious correlations, contrast to the alternative testing approach that has been proposed by Agiakloglou and Tsimpanos (2012). This study examines the trade-offs between size distortions and power using both testing techniques, including the case where the true values of the autoregressive parameters are replaced by their estimates.     

Transitions across labor market states including formal/informal division in Egypt

This study examines the worker transitions across labor market states including formal/informal division using panel data of 2006 to 2012 from Egypt. We generate a broad set of facts about labor market dynamics in Egypt. We first develop transition probabilities by gender across different labor market states including formal/informal sectors utilizing Markov transition processes. Government employment is the most persistent labor market state for both men and women and the out of labor force is the second most persistent labor market state for women. Unemployment is the most mobile labor market state. Informal private wage work and self‐employed–agriculture are also relatively mobile labor market states. We next identify the effects of individual, household and job characteristics on different mobility patterns by estimating multinomial logit models. We find that gender, age, education, experience, and several sectors of economic activity are associated with the transition probabilities between the labor market states considered such as formal wage, informal wage, self‐employment, unemployment, government employment, and out of labor market. Education, in particular, university degree or above is noted to play a vital role in the probability of transitions across several labor market states.     

Parametric characterizations of risk aversion and prudence

Summary. Our first main result says that whether one decision maker is more risk averse than another can be determined from their attitudes toward a given two-parameter family of risks. When all risks belong to this family, risk aversion can be compared even when initial wealth is random. Our second main result solves a long-standing problem in mean-variance analysis: what is the interpretation of the concavity of utility as a function of mean and variance? We show that in the case of normal distributions, this utility function is concave if and only if the agent has decreasing prudence. Received: July 29, 1996; revised: October 2, 1998     

中国区域经济增长俱乐部趋同及其演变分析--基于时空加权马尔科夫链的预测

利用马尔科夫链、空间马尔科夫链及时空加权马尔科夫链等方法,分析了中国所有地级市经济增长的趋同俱乐部空间分布及其演变趋势,认为：（1）中国地级市经济增长存在低水平、中低水平、中高水平及高水平等四个趋同俱乐部。（2）低水平趋同俱乐部主要集中在我国中部的落后地区及西部边远地区,且多为少数民族聚集地。高水平趋同俱乐部主要集中在我国中西部资源型城市及沿海城市。（3）邻居越发达,越有利于趋同俱乐部的演变。（4）从极限分布来看,与低收入邻居相邻未来67．5％的可能仍然属于低收入类型,与高收入邻居相邻未来65．2％的可能属于高收入类型。最后,提出制定有梯度的区域适配型政策、提高基本公共服务水平、以企业间的合作为纽带及以新型中小城镇及城市群为增长极等政策建议。     

Continuity of the equilibrium price density and its uses in peak-load pricing

Summary. With as the commodity space, the equilibrium price density is shown to be a continuous function of the commodity characteristics. The result is based on symmetry ideas from the Hardy-Littlewood-Pólya theory of rearrangements. It includes, but is not limited to, the case of symmetric (rearrangement-invariant) production costs and additively separable consumer utility. Examples arise in continuous-time utility pricing, e.g., electricity pricing. In this context, a continuously varying price has two uses. First, it precludes demand jumps that would arise from discontinuous switches from one price rate to another. Second, in the problems of operating and valuing hydroelectric and pumped-storage plants (studied elsewhere), price continuity guarantees that their capacities (viz., the reservoir and the converter), the energy stocks, and in the case of hydro also the river flows, have well-defined marginal values.Received: 9 May 2001, Revised: 8 July 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C62, D51, D58, L94. Correspondence to: Anthony HorsleyPart of this work (CentER DP 9014) was completed at the Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, whose financial support is gratefully acknowledged. The extension to storage was supported by ESRC grant R000232822. We also thank the referee and the editor for their comments.     

On the continuity of correspondences on sets of measures with restricted marginals

Summary. Consider the set of probability measures on a product space with the property that all have the same marginal distributions on the coordinate spaces. This set may be viewed as a correspondence, when the marginal distributions are varied. Here, it is shown that this correspondence is continuous. Numerous problems in economics involve optimization over a space of measures where one or more marginal distributions is given. Thus, for this class of problem, Berge's theorem of the maximum is applicable: the set of optimizers is upper-hemicontinuous and the value of the optimal solution varies with the parameters (marginals) continuously. Received: April 23, 1997; revised version: January 16, 1998     

Uniqueness of stationary equilibria in a one-dimensional model of bargaining

We prove uniqueness of stationary equilibria in a one-dimensional model of bargaining with quadratic utilities, for an arbitrary common discount factor. For general concave utilities, we prove existence and uniqueness of a “minimal” stationary equilibrium and of a “maximal” stationary equilibrium. We provide an example of multiple stationary equilibria with concave (nonquadratic) utilities.     

On the continuity of equilibrium and core correspondences in economies with differential information

Summary. We study upper semi-continuity of the private and coarse core and the Walrasian expectations equilibrium correspondences for economies with differential information, with Boylan (1971) topology on agents information fields.Received: 16 January 2004, Revised: 28 October 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D50, D82, C70. Correspondence to: Ezra EinyWe wish to thank Carlos Herves, Nicholas Yannelis, and an anonymous referee for their helpful comments.     

Is there an asymmetric effect of monetary policy over time? A Bayesian analysis using Austrian data.

The present paper assesses whether monetary policy effects are asymmetric over the business cycle by estimating a univariate model for GDP including additionally the first difference of the 3-month Austrian interest rate as a measure for monetary policy. The asymmetry of the effects is captured by allowing for state-dependent parameters where the latent state variable follows a Markov switching process. The model is estimated within a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. Model selection and specification tests are performed by means of marginal likelihood. The results document significant negative effects of monetary policy during periods of below-average growth, while the effect seems insignificant during periods of normal or above-average growth. These results corroborate those derived in theoretical models assuming price rigidities and implying a convex supply curve. Additionally, the concern of using appropriate state-identifying restrictions is raised to obtain an unbiased posterior inference. Finally, the analysis concludes by assessing the robustness of the results with respect to alternative measures of monetary policy. First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001     

Parametric Lorenz Curves and the Modality of the Income Density Function

Similar looking Lorenz curves can imply very different income density functions and potentially lead to wrong policy implications regarding inequality. This paper derives a relation between a Lorenz curve and the modality of its underlying income density: given a parametric Lorenz curve, it is the sign of its third derivative which indicates whether the density is unimodal or zeromodal (i.e., downward‐sloping). The density modality of several important Lorenz curves such as the Pareto, Weibull, Singh–Maddala parametrizations and hierarchical families of Lorenz curves are discussed. A Lorenz curve performance comparison with Monte Carlo simulations and data from the UNU–WIDER World Income Inequality Database underlines the relevance of the theoretical result: curve‐fitting based on criteria such as mean squared error or the Gini difference might lead to a Lorenz curve implying an incorrectly‐shaped density function. It is therefore important to take into account the modality when selecting a parametric Lorenz curve.     

人口学领域的定量研究过程与方法

通过实例剖析,介绍了社会科学研究领域定量分析的研究过程和方法。科学研究是具有明确目的的、对事物之间关系严谨、缜密的探索;它具有整体性,通过系统的程序和过程,在理论的指导下进行。科学研究必须有好的研究问题、理论设计、可以信赖的数据、正确的模型和分析方法、客观的分析结果展示。掌握正确的研究过程和方法将会产生高质量的研究成果。     

Why are distributions of firm growth rates tent-shaped?

Recent empirical analyses on different datasets have revealed a common exponential behavior in the shape of the probability density of the corporate growth rates. We present new evidence on this topic from the Italian Manufacturing Industry and propose a very simple mechanism that, under rather general assumptions, provides a robust explanation for the observed regularities.