商业银行流动性风险、信用风险与偿付能力风险

流动性风险与信用风险是商业银行面对的主要风险类型,研究二者的相互关系及对商业银行经营的影响具有重要实践意义。实证分析表明,反映中国商业银行整体流动性风险的流动性创造指标会显著影响银行信用风险,但表示银行融资流动性风险的NSFR比率不会影响商业银行信用风险;信用风险对银行流动性风险的影响不显著。本文实证分析也从侧面证明银行资产流动性风险对银行信用风险影响较高,因为二者都与银行账面资产有关。实证分析还表明中国银行业存在"大而不倒"的现象,但本文认为这种"大而不倒"的现象本质来源是政府承担了商业银行流动性风险和信用风险的管理任务,因此商业银行自身应该从流动性风险和信用风险交互作用角度做好风险管理,降低银行风险。     

对信贷市场开拓与信用风险防范关系的思考

自九十年代中后期以来,我国银行业发生了翻天覆地的变化,银行业竞争日趋激烈,不光是存款市场的竞争已经到了白热化,而信贷市场的竞争也日趋激烈。但在实际开拓过程中,往往过于心急,不注意风险的防范,到头来出现了一系列的问题。因此处理好信贷市场开拓和信用风险的关系,使两者达到平衡和统一非常重要。 一、正确处理信货市场开拓与信用风险防范的关系应遵循的基本原则     

我国商业银行信用风险管理中存在的问题与完善对策

目前，我国商业银行面临着来自国外同行的激烈竞争，我国商业银行在信用风险管理理念、技术、方法等方面上都与国外同行存在明显差距，因此，必须完善客户信用用评级法和贷款风险五级分类，尽快提高信用风险管理水平。     

信用风险缓释工具与银行风险承担行为研究

2010年末,我国银行间市场交易商协会推出了信用风险缓释工具,开启了银行风险管理的信用衍生工具时代。近年来,为了降低银行信用风险,盘活信贷资金存量,信用风险缓释工具再次被监管部门提及,更强化了对信用风险缓释工具与银行风险承担行为研究的重要性和紧迫性。在前期已有研究的基础上,以我国银行风险承担行为为研究对象,重点分析了信用风险缓释工具对银行风险承担行为的影响。研究结论表明:信用风险缓释工具可提高我国银行风险承担能力,但考虑到外部经济影响因素时,其作用是不显著的。这说明我国信用风险缓释工具还仅仅是银行风险管理的辅助手段,其风险转移功能有待进一步挖掘。     

浅析我国商业银行信用风险管理

金融危机的到来越发地使人们认识到商业银行信用风险管理的重要性。因而,重点分析了我国当前商业银行信用风险管理中现状以及其中存在的问题,并在此基础上作深入的分析,得出相关政策性建议：一是健全内部控制体系;二是建立信用风险转移机制;三建立信用风险补偿机制;四是推进信用文化建设。     

中国A股市场存在“信用风险悖论”吗?

国外文献对发达国家股票市场的研究发现,低风险公司股票的收益率高于高风险公司股票,即所谓的信用风险悖论。文章对我国A股市场风险与收益的关系进行实证研究后发现,该悖论在当前中国股票市场不存在,且此结论具有相当的稳健性,不随金融危机发生和货币政策变化而改变,亦不依赖模型设置和统计方法。关注这种现象,尤其是在中国这样不太成熟的金融市场,对政府制定相应的政策来控制风险十分重要。     

我国商业银行信用风险管理中存在的问题与完善对策

目前,我国商业银行面临着来自国外同行的激烈竞争,我国商业银行在信用风险管理理念、技术、方法等方面上都与国外同行存在明显差距,因此,必须完善客户信用用评级法和贷款风险五级分类,尽快提高信用风险管理水平.     

中国金融风险管理的建立及市场风险的度量

通过对金融风险来源的介绍,分析了影响中国金融风险管理的因素,具体从资金、制度两个方面分析了中国金融风险出现的原因。挖掘到了问题所在继而希望对中国金融风险管理的建立提出更具有意义的改进措施。最后介绍了市场风险度量的VaR方法。     

商业银行的操作风险与控制

传统的银行风险是指信用风险与市场风险,事实上这两种风险很早就已引起金融机构的重视。按照巴塞尔银行业委员会的估计,在银行业所有风险中,操作风险所造成的损失已经发展到仅次于信用风险的地步。因此,操作风险是当今中国银行业风险管理的重中之重,是当下乃至今后一段时间内现代商业银行必须高度重视,并着手狠抓的一项重要任务。     

基于价值链的企业信用风险管理体系

本文在科学把握企业信用风险管理和价值链理论的基础上，将波特价值链分析法应用于企业信用风险管理，以销售——回款过程为主线，构建了企业信用风险管理价值链，探讨了企业信用风险管理的基本理论和管理技术。     

Equity market information and credit risk signaling: A quantile cointegrating regression approach

Investigating linkages between credit and equity markets, we consider daily aggregate U.S. CDS spreads as well as well-chosen equity market and implied volatility indexes over ten years. We describe such robust (to spurious correlation) relationship with the quantile cointegrating regression approach. Such approach handles extreme quantiles/CDS values and their behavior with respect to the equity market's influence. Heteroskedastic patterns such as time-varying variance, but also autocorrelation, skewness and leptokurtosis are captured. Thus, the sensitivity of aggregate CDS spreads to equity market price and volatility channels is accurately measured across quantiles and spreads. Such quantile-dependent sensitivity exhibits asymmetric responses to equity market shocks. A sub-period analysis investigates potential regime shifts in estimated quantile cointegrating regressions. Quantile cointegrating coefficients vary over time and quantiles, and exhibit different magnitudes across sub-periods and spreads. Therefore, the relationship is unstable over time. We also propose a scenario analysis and risk signaling application for credit risk management prospects. Under specific risk levels, credit risky situations are described conditional on the equity market's information over time, and related expected aggregate CDS spreads are computed. Estimated conditional quantiles/CDS spreads act as credit alert triggers.     

An endogenous structural credit risk model incorporating with moral hazard and rollover risk

In this paper, we embed optimal contracting between the manager and equity holders into Leland-Toft endogenous structural credit risk model to study the impact of moral hazard on the firm's credit risk with rollover debts. Our model quantitatively shows that the agency costs induced by the moral hazard can endogenously have significant impacts on credit spreads, besides the costs of rolling over the maturing debts of the firm. It originates from the conflicts that these two costs should be covered by equity holders while both the manager and maturing debt holders are still paid in full. The numerical results show that the credit spread with the agency costs of moral hazard is larger than the one without the agency costs. Thus, the moral hazard could be used to explain “credit spread puzzle” as an endogenous factor. The explicit formulae of the equity value, the debt value, and the endogenous default boundary are also given.     

中小非上市公司信用风险的评价研究——基于WEB与FAHP的视角

信用是人类社会最古老的词汇之一,而信用风险的管控是现代社会经济生活关注的核心问题之一。中小企业既是资本主义社会也是社会主义社会向前发展的源驱动力,中小企业的发展离不开现代信用体系的支撑。在文章中,中小企业按其信息的披露程度分为上市公司与非上市公司,相对于中小企业上市公司来说,由于交易的参与人信息不对称,中小非上市公司信用风险评估是交易双方以及各类金融机构最关心和最难解决的难题之一。在现代信息网络技术普遍化的背景下,利用人工以及机器搜索策略,充分挖掘中小非上市公司信息风险元和分类整理,并在此基础之上进行模糊综合评估,最后通过算例说明基于WEB对中小非上市公司信用风险的模糊综合评价的方法行之有效。     

基于VaR方法的商业银行信用风险的探究

信用风险管理的核心问题是信用风险的度量。本文重点探究基于统计方法的VaR信用风险模型,通过实证分析可知,以VaR值为核心的CreditMetrics方法,通过适当修正,符合我国商业银行信用风险管理的实际情况。     

金融加速器效应在中国存在吗?

本文从金融加速器理论出发,运用门限向量自回归(TVAR)模型在宏观层面上对中国信贷市场与宏观经济波动的非线性关联展开实证研究。通过非线性脉冲响应函数的检验结果我们发现:在1990年1月至2006年5月期间,中国存在显著的金融加速器效应,表现为对于相同特征的各种外生冲击,经济波动在信贷市场处于"紧缩"状态下的反应均明显强于信贷市场处于"放松"状态下的反应。另外,信贷冲击对于信贷市场状态变化的作用最为显著,其次是货币冲击和价格冲击,最后是实际冲击。进一步的检验还表明:信贷市场在宏观经济波动过程中既是重要的波动源,同时也是波动的有力传导媒介,运用金融加速器理论有助于合理解释中国宏观经济波动的轨迹特征。最后本文阐述了实证结论的政策含义和未来研究的侧重点。     

Exploring the mismatch between credit ratings and loss-given-default: A credit risk approach

It is commonly observed that high grade loans with better ratings are often associated with low recoveries if they default (i.e. with relatively high loss-given-default (LGD)). To address the mismatch problem, this paper proposes a credit risk approach by minimizing LGD for higher rated loans as a risk-rating matching standard in the sense that the decreasing LGD from creditors’ perspective is associated with higher credit rating for the borrower. This standard forces customers’ credit rating of each grade to be optimally determined in correspondence to its LGD, which means the LGD of high grade loans tends to be low. The approach is then tested using three credit datasets from China, i.e. credit data from 2044 farmers, 2157 small private businesses and 3111 SMEs. The empirical results show that the proposed approach indeed guides the way to solve the mismatch phenomenon between credit ratings and LGDs in the existing credit rating literature. By optimally determining credit ratings, the findings derived from this paper help provide a valuable reference for bankers, and bond investors to manage their credit risk.     

Linking global economic dynamics to a South African-specific credit risk correlation model

In order to address practical questions in credit portfolio management it is necessary to link the cyclical or systematic components of firm credit risk with the firm's own idiosyncratic credit risk as well as the systematic credit risk component of every other exposure in the portfolio. This paper builds on the methodology proposed by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner [Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., and Weiner, S.M., (2004), Modeling regional interdependencies using a global error correcting macroeconometric model, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22, 2, 129–169.] and supplemented by Pesaran, Schuermann, Treutler and Weiner [Pesaran, M.H., Schuermann, T., Treutler, B., and Weiner, S.M., (2006), Macroeconomic dynamics and credit risk: a global perspective, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 38, Number 5, August 2006, 1211–1261.] which has made a significant advance in credit risk modelling in that it avoids the use of proprietary balance sheet and distance-to-default data, focusing on credit ratings which are more freely available.In this paper a country-specific macroeconometric risk-driver engine which is compatible with and could feed into the GVAR model and framework of PSW (2004) is constructed, using vector error-correcting (VECM) techniques. This allows conditional loss estimation of a South African-specific credit portfolio but also opens the door for credit portfolio modelling on a global scale, as such a model can easily be linked to the GVAR model. The set of domestic factors is extended beyond those used in PSW (2004) in such a way that the risk-driver model is applicable for both retail and corporate credit risk. As such, the model can be applied to a total bank balance sheet, incorporating the correlation and diversification between both retail and corporate credit exposures.Assuming statistical over-identification restrictions, the results indicate that it is possible to construct a South African component for the GVAR model that can easily be integrated into the global component. From a practical application perspective the framework and model is particularly appealing since it can be used as a theoretically consistent correlation model within a South African-specific credit portfolio management tool.     

有关外贸企业信用风险及其管理的研究

随着我国市场经济的不断发展,外贸企业之间的竞争日益激烈。很多外贸企业为了占据国外市场,会推出优惠的信用条件,以此作为增加客户的手段,但其信用风险也会随之增加。分析了导致外贸企业信用风险增加的原因,并提出对应管理措施。只有不断降低信用风险,以此提高外贸企业的竞争力,才能使企业不断扩大经营规模,促进企业的不断发展。     

中国和印度股市波动性的比较研究

作为“金砖四国”中的成员,中印两国股票市场具有较强的可比性。比较分析金融危机发生后两国的股市波动性特征,对中国股市发展具有理论和现实双重借鉴意义。文章利用ARCH族模型对上证综合指数和印度孟买30指数日收盘价数据展开实证研究,比较解析金融危机发生后中印两国的股市波动性特质,分析表明可变性和波动集簇性是两国收益率波动均呈现出的明显特质,而且印度比中国有更强的显示度;此外,中印两国股市收益正的风险溢价表现不显著;杠杆效应在上证综合指数收益率和印度孟买30指数收益率中均有体现,而且杠杆效应在印度股市的影响要高于中国股市。这对于确保中国股票和证券市场持续、稳定、强劲发展具有显著的理论说服力及重大的实践意义。