Measuring the Financial Cycle in South Africa

We measure the financial cycle of South Africa using three different methodologies. The financial cycle is identified using credit, house prices and equity prices as indicators, and estimated using traditional turning-point analysis, frequency-based filters and an unobserved components model-based approach. We then consider the financial cycle’s main characteristics and examine its relationships with the business cycle. We confirm the presence of a financial cycle in South Africa that has a longer duration and a larger amplitude than the traditional business cycle. Developments in measures of credit and house prices are important indicators of the financial cycle, although the case for including equity prices in the measures is less certain. Periods where financial conditions are stressed are associated with peaks in the financial cycle, suggesting that the estimated financial cycle may have similar leading indicator properties to financial conditions or stress indices.     

Population policy in South Africa: a critical perspective

The argument in this article is that population growth and the concept of balancing resources against population growth is flawed when the context, in this case South Africa, is gross inequalities in resource distribution. The fact is that causes of poverty are located in the social and political structures which give people unequal access to existing resources or international aid. Population trends reflect the mode of production of that society. It is argued that the Malthusian law of population and the theory of demographic transition is ahistorical and inaccurate. The theory does not explain why population growth rates change. In South Africa, fertility reflects lack of control over one's life and poverty. Migrant labor in South Africa undermined normal social institutions and disrupted family life. Government has emphasized a fear of a future population crisis because of resource shortages and a fear of the growing black population. The South African population development program is extracted and discussed. Questions are raised about the theory of demographic transition, the way resource allocation is ascertained, the relationship between resources and population in a specific area, and the relationship between population growth and development in general. The theory of demographic transition is examined and the Western influences which contributed to population growth through requests for changes in sexual mores and the effects of colonization. When demographic transition theory postulates that mortality rates decline with industrialization as a result of access to medical care and an improved diet, it doesn't take into account the discriminatory health care allocation under apartheid, or the displacement of rural people from their land and undermining of the rural peasantry. Separate development has led to inferior schooling and lack of access to skilled employment. In discussing the availability of resources in South Africa, the question is raised as to whether there is an absolute limit to water, or whether water management or water conservation is at issue, as in the case example of the Transkei. What is economical reflects political decisions about national priorities when consideration is given to alternative strategies for increasing the water supply, or solving pollution problems. The potential to feed South Africans is substantiated, and the problems of maldistribution identified. In establishing the balance between family planning and development, the Population Development Program (PDP) expresses contradictory aims; i.e., seeking community involvement of a politically disenfranchised population. The concept of overpopulation and the application of population control programs in South Africa does not address the problems of poverty and powerlessness.     

Poverty and inequality in South Africa: critical reflections

ABSTRACT

South Africa is a paradox; on the one hand, it is one of the most unequal countries in the world. Half of all South Africans continue to live in poverty, economic growth has stagnated and inflation remains high, while the unemployment rate continues to climb towards 30%. On the other hand, it has one of the most progressive constitutions in the world, with a bill of rights that foregrounds expanded socioeconomic rights. We provide an overview of the latest statistics on poverty and inequality in light of overarching economic policies, and the socioeconomic guarantees of the Constitution. We argue that South Africa’s inability to meaningfully address the high levels of inequality is due to insufficient attention to the way power reproduces inequality. We present a definition of power that includes social and market power, and emphasise the importance of a theory of power in understanding the reproduction of inequality.     

Measuring the growth potential of towns in the Western Cape,South Africa

Urban settlements in the Western Cape sustain regional development and are vital to the national spatial economy, but because not all contribute or participate equally they do not grow at the same rate – some flourish while others decline. The Provincial Administration of the Western Cape therefore commissioned a study to evaluate and monitor their functions and performance. This paper assesses the study's methodology and procedures. It describes the variables used and explains how the raw data were transformed into comparative indices and combined into a single composite development potential index. It evaluates the sub-indices and the composite index by mapping the results and uses multivariate statistical techniques to explore the logic and validity of the results. It confirms that the indices created for measuring urban growth potential were well chosen and constructed, laying a sound theoretical and methodological base for future decisions about public investment in rural towns.     

New indicators of price competitiveness and effective exchange rates

New Indicators of Price Competitiveness und Effective Exchange Rates. - In this paper we propose new indicators of price competitiveness and effective exchange rates that provide more accurate information about the overall competitive position of a given country with respect to the traditional indices. The new methodology uses one of the so-called “superlative” index numbers that are characterized by very small approximation errors, which are of higher order than those present in the tradi-tional indices. The empirical evidence in four Italian exporting sectors show that the proposed indicators may differ from the traditional ones more than three percentage points not only in the end of the examined period, but also during the intermediate years.     

A synthesis of homelessness in South Africa: A rapid critical appraisal

Homelessness in South Africa requires collaborative research. Social, political, cultural and economic factors that cause homelessness must be considered to develop a common definition and understanding of homelessness. South Africa’s social complexity and diversity make it challenging to construct available results into one conceptual framework, and this in turn complicates national policy implementation and role allocation. By means of a rapid critical appraisal of literature on homelessness in South Africa, researchers provide evidence to direct and structure contextual research pertaining to homelessness. Four themes transpire: conceptualisation; demography; roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders; and strategic policy and research issues. Researchers caution that the findings are not generalisable, because of the rapid nature of the appraisal and possible selection bias of the literature. Measures of validity were used to ensure that the study accomplished its purpose through the key results and to ensure that the results are a true reflection of available evidence.     

Towards a science and technology‐policy for South Africa

The history of industrial development in South Africa is marked by lack of a coherent science and technology policy. The changing political and economic context has brought a recognition of the need for such a policy, especially for attaining international competitiveness. This article explores some considerations that should enter into the formulation of such a policy. It focuses on the definition of goal sets for science and technology policy and on the mechanisms needed to pursue them; discusses the debate between the structuralist and neoclassical approaches to the role of technology in growth and development; and examines the roles of various research and development agents and some of the main determinants of R&D activity for their implications for policy instruments.     

Examination of travel and tourism competitiveness contribution to national economy competitiveness of sub-Saharan Africa countries

The purpose of this research is to examine the influence of travel and tourism competitiveness (measured by the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index [TTCI]) on the national economic competitiveness of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries (measured by the Global Competitiveness Index [GCI]). The aim is to identify critical factors for improving competitiveness of SAA countries from the area of tourism competitiveness. The study was conducted using the following methods: regression, cluster and grey relational analysis (GRA). Results reveal that travel and tourism competitiveness has a high impact on national competitiveness in the analysed group of countries. The study identified three homogeneous groups within SSA countries according to the TTCI pillars. The different impact of the TTCI on the GCI is determined in each of these three homogeneous groups of countries. The outcomes of this study could provide recommendations for tourism development policy-makers in SSA countries based on the results of GRA.     

Constraints facing tourism entrepreneurs in South Africa: a study in the Gauteng and Mpumalanga provinces,South Africa

The current study is an investigation into tourism entrepreneurship of small, medium and micro enterprises in Gauteng and Mpumalanga. Through Principal Factor Analysis, the paper identifies a three-factor instrument that could be used as a diagnostic tool to investigate how government policies and support, the tourism industry's products and services, and perceptions about South Africa could advance or constrain the development of small, medium and micro tourism in South Africa. Such a tool can be used to identify problematic areas in order to take remedial action to manage sustainable tourism in South Africa and prevent the leakage of profits.     

The implications of South Africa's skills migration policy for country competitiveness

South Africa suffers from a shortage of skills, while at the same time having an excess of unskilled labour. The brain drain and the impact of HIV/Aids are threats to the current skills level in the labour force. Skilled workers generally create jobs for unskilled workers, and the level of skills in the labour force is an attraction for foreign investment. The new international migration policy imposes financial penalties and other restrictions on employers of foreigners with skills. The policy is detrimental to South Africa's competitiveness in the global economy and will deter investors and those needing to utilise skills not available in the South African labour market. A general immigration policy would be more appropriate to attract skilled foreigners to South Africa, where their skills can be absorbed into the labour force by supply and demand forces.