An evaluation of age–sex distributions of South Africa's population within the context of HIV/AIDS

Knowledge about the age–sex distribution of a population is valuable for planning and decision making as it is a determinant of the future development of the population. Various aspects of the age–sex distributions of the population of South Africa estimated by Statistics South Africa remain controversial. For example, at face value the 1996 census implies that the overall sex ratio dropped from 97 in 1970 to 92 in 1996 and 91 in 2001. The 1996 census results also imply that the proportion of peoples aged 0–4 dropped from 15 per cent in 1970 to 11 per cent in 1996 and 10 per cent in 2001. In an attempt to shed more light on these controversies this study evaluates the age–sex distributions from the 1996 census, using a novel approach, and also develops model age–sex distributions for South Africa as a means of evaluating age–sex distributions from the 2001 census, and future censuses and surveys in the country.     

The debate on the future of the population census: Relevance for South Africa?

The cancellation of the Canadian census long-form questionnaire in 2010 and its subsequent reinstatement in 2015 resulted in a vigorous international debate on the future of the mandatory census. Questions concerning state invasions of personal privacy, party political interference and public trust and cooperation in state data-gathering were raised. As a result, alternative forms of demographic data collection were explored and the experiences of other countries examined. National population registers and non-mandatory surveys offered alternatives, but each had their own distinct disadvantages. South Africa has continued to conduct mandatory detailed censuses since 1994 and the enumerations have encountered little political opposition because they are presented as essentially nation-building exercises providing credible and relevant data, upon which national policies may be based and monitored. At present there is little incentive to change the current format of statistical collection in the absence of a viable alternative.     

Reweighting South African National Household Survey Data to Create a Consistent Series Over Time: A Cross‐Entropy Estimation Approach

In the absence of established longitudinal panel surveys in South Africa, national cross‐sectional household survey data are frequently used to analyse change. When these data are stacked side by side, however, inconsistencies both in time trends and between household‐ and person‐level data are found. This study uses a new set of weights calibrated to the Actuarial Society of South Africa 2003 model projected totals using a cross‐entropy estimation approach. These weights are favoured because they produce consistent demographic and geographic trends. The calculated weights are similar to the initial sample weights (and hence retain the survey design benefits) but match to a series of age‐sex‐race and province marginal totals that are consistent over time. The weights are publicly available for the 14‐year period between 1994 and 2007.     

Winners and losers: South African labour-market dynamics between 2008 and 2010

There is little empirical work in South Africa using panel data to describe employment and earnings dynamics. This paper contributes by describing labour-market transitions in South Africa between 2008 and 2010 for individuals aged 20 to 55 across two waves of nationally representative panel data. We find that women had more mobility than men into and out of the labour market and employment. However, women were less mobile between kinds of employment and across occupations. Casual employment was very unstable, with very few individuals remaining in this state. In contrast, there was little mobility out of regular employment into other kinds of employment. Average real earnings changes were positive for movements into regular employment and negative for movements into self-employment or casual employment. Strong movement out of semi-skilled occupations was striking, especially for males. In multivariate models, being the mother of young children was important in leaving regular employment.     

Estimating the Size and Impact of Affirmative Action in Undergraduate Admissions at the University of Cape Town

In this paper, we estimate the extent and targeting of affirmative action at the University of Cape Town (UCT), a large public university in South Africa. To do this we use admissions data from the UCT, as well as South African population census data and administrative enrolment and graduation data from the South African Department of Higher Education. We find that affirmative action does have a significant effect on the racial distribution of who is made an offer by the university. We also find that affirmative action is well targeted, with those who we estimate to be beneficiaries being of much lower socioeconomic status than those who we estimate are displaced by affirmative action. Beneficiaries of affirmative action have low graduation rates on average, with those beneficiaries who attend UCT being less likely to graduate than those beneficiaries who enrol at other public universities.     

Lifecourse migration and redistribution of the elderly across U.S. regions and metropolitan areas

This analysis investigates the assertion that the baby-boom cohorts, by virtue of their large size and new lifecourse redistribution tendencies, are likely to initiate significant shifts in the distribution of the elderly population as these cohorts enter into the 65-and-older age categories. The author contends that cohorts' pre-elderly lifecourse migration patterns should be incorporated into studies of elderly population distribution shifts. 2 questions are addressed: will the new lifecourse migration patterns provide for a more deconcentrated redistribution of the baby-boom cohorts, both prior to and after their entry into the elderly age categories, than the lifecourse migration patterns followed by earlier cohorts; and will the new lifecourse distribution pattern lead, in the long run, to a significantly more deconcentrated distribution of the elderly population. The examination of these 2 questions focuses, largely, on redistribution across 9 broad regional and metropolitan area groupings defined on the basis of 3 census regions -- the North (combining the Northeast and Midwest census regions), the South, and the West -- and 3 categories of metropolitan status -- large metropolitan areas (those with 1980 populations exceeding 1 million), other metropolitan areas, and nonmetropolitan areas. The comparison of "new" versus "old" lifecourse migration patterns contrasts the census-based age-specific migration stream rates, registered over the 1975-80 period, with those registered over the 1965-70 period. Given the sharp and broad-based shift toward deconcentrated redistribution which characterized practically all segments of the population during the 1970s, it is assumed that the age-specific migration patterns observed over the 1975-80 period approximate the more deconcentrated redistribution tendencies which will be adopted by the baby-boom cohorts (and their successors) over the remainder of their lifecourse. The 1965-70 net migration rates point up the aggregate redistribution implications associated with the "old" lifecourse migration stream patterns. Among the rates for North large metropolitan areas, the only positive net migration is observed for the 25-29 age category; the greatest net outmigration rate is shown for the 65-69 age category. The rates for South nonmetropolitan areas are negative for all age categories under age 55, and most accentuated outmigration is shown during the young-adult years. The positive net migration exhibited for the older adult and post retirement ages reflects the low outmigration rates from nonmetropolitan areas during these ages and the slight peaking of immigration for these years. The results of this analysis imply that more attention should be devoted to migration, over the entirety of the lifecourse, in future studies of population redistribution.     

Evidence of short-term household change in South Africa from the National Income Dynamics Study

We use longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Study to document the extent of recent short-term residential and household compositional change in South Africa. We analyse the demographic correlates of these transitions, including population group, age, urban/rural status, and income. We examine educational and labour-market transitions among movers and the prevalence of the four major types of compositional change – births, addition of joiners, deaths, and loss of leavers. We find that short-term household change is prevalent in South Africa. During a two-year period from 2008 to 2010, 10.5% of South Africans moved residence and 61.3% experienced change in household composition. We find that moving is more common among blacks and whites, very young children, young adults, urban individuals, and those with higher incomes. Among non-movers, compositional change is more likely for blacks and coloureds, young adults and children, females, urban individuals, and individuals with lower incomes.     

Determinants of labour force participation in the North West province of South Africa

Based on data extracted from the 1995 October Household Survey of Statistics South Africa, this study has found that potential income is a major factor in labour force participation by African women in the North West province of South Africa. Other significant determinants of participation for both genders are age, education, region, marital status and relationship to the head of the household. The results imply that significant discrimination against African women still exists in the North West province, which partly explains the much lower participation rate for African women (64 per cent), compared with that of African men (86,5 per cent). The study supports the North West government's development strategy of developing human resources to eradicate poverty.     

YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT,FIRM SIZE AND RESERVATION WAGES IN SOUTH AFRICA

The level of youth unemployment in South Africa is much higher than in comparator countries. We investigate whether one of the reasons may be that the wages young people want or need are above those that they could reasonably expect to earn given their characteristics. Unlike previous work on the relationship between reservation wages and unemployment we differentiate between wages in different sizes of firms. Larger firms pay more and thus, even if reservation wages are similar to average predicted wages, they may be above the wages that young people could expect to earn in smaller firms. We find that this is the case.     

Off‐farm wage returns to education: Evidence from Lesotho

This article presents estimates of off‐farm wage returns to education in rural areas of Lesotho. Results from a sample survey conducted in the northern Lowlands and Foothills of Lesotho indicate that returns to education are relatively higher for people wage‐employed in Lesotho than those wage‐employed as migrants in South Africa. For people working within Lesotho, education appears to have a significant and positive effect on off‐farm wages. Most people working within Lesotho are employed as teachers, nurses and civil servants and these job categories require an educated labour force. For people wage‐employed in South Africa, education appears not to have a significant effect on off‐farm wages. Most men working in South Africa are employed as labourers in mines while women working in South Africa are employed as domestic servants.     

The census of Canada: current situation and future developments

Recent developments concerning censuses in Canada are described. Efforts to improve data quality in the 1981 census are first discussed. The authors explain how the 1986 census was approved, then cancelled, and finally reinstated. Consideration is given to data processing, costs, census products, and international cooperation on census problems     

Counting the costs of a twenty-first century census: South Africa's census 2001

Increasingly complex societies necessitate the collection of more information, or more sophisticated ways of estimation. This places upward pressure on the cost of collecting such information, as family structures are more complex, mobility more frequent, and willingness to provide information declines. As a result, rising census costs have become an issue in many countries. South Africa's 2001 Census was arguably the most expensive in the country's history. However, assessing the cost of a census requires a closer scrutiny of the cost of census-taking as well as the procedures that were followed and the benefits that might arise. This paper uses information provided by Statistics South Africa to analyse the cost of Census 2001 and explore lessons that may be derived for future census activities.     

Post 9-11 U.S. Muslim Labor Market Outcomes

Using a difference-in-differences framework and micro data from the Current Population Survey-Merged Outgoing Rotation Group Files (1999 to 2004), this paper estimates the impact that the 9-11 terrorists attacks had on the U.S. labor market outcomes of individuals with nativity profiles similar to the terrorists. We find that shortly after the attacks, the employment-population ratios and hours worked of very young (ages 16 to 25) Muslim men fell. By 2004, most losses had begun to dissipate. The employment-population ratios and hours worked of older Muslim men experienced little deterioration. We find no effect of the U.K.’s July 2005 London bombings on the labor market outcomes of U.S. Muslims.     

Where to draw the line: Data problems and other difficulties estimating urbanisation in Africa

The purpose of this article is to review the current state of knowledge on the pitfalls around definitions of the urban and the use of census data in estimating and tracking changes in urban populations. Differing criteria for the urban population and changing definitions make comparisons of levels of urbanisation very difficult across countries. Where censuses are held infrequently and administered less rigorously, accurate data on the urban population are a particular problem. This is especially the case in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary African cities are increasingly important sites of urbanisation in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there is far less knowledge about these smaller cities. This article therefore looks at issues around estimates of populations in sub-Saharan cities and why this is a particular problem in smaller cities. Some of the implications of these problems are discussed, as well as measures to improve our understanding of the urbanisation process in smaller cities.     

Re-estimating gender differences in income in South Africa: The implications of equivalence scales

Most studies of poverty and inequality in South Africa measure individual welfare by deflating total household resources, such as income, by household size. This per-capita method makes no adjustments for the different consumption needs of children or for household economies of scale. However, in addition to being more likely to live in households where average per-capita household income is lower compared with men, we show that women in South Africa also live in significantly larger households which include more children. These gendered differences in household composition are driven to a large degree by low rates of co-residency between men and women. We therefore investigate how adjusting household resources for the presence of children and economies of scale affects measures of the gender gap in income.     

The reach and impact of Child Support Grants: evidence from KwaZulu-Natal

This paper examines the reach and impact of the South African Child Support Grant, using longitudinal data collected through the Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies. The grant is being taken up for a third of all age-eligible resident children, and appears to be reaching those children living in the poorer households of the demographic surveillance area (DSA). Children who received the grant are significantly more likely to be enrolled in school in the years following grant receipt than are equally poor children of the same age. However, older brothers and sisters of grant recipients, when they were observed at younger ages, were less likely than other children to be enrolled in school – perhaps reflecting the greater poverty in grant-receiving households. Thus the grant appears to help overcome the impact of poverty on school enrolment.     

The changing age distribution in Indonesia and some consequences

"Beginning with a discussion of the sources and quality of Indonesian age data by sex, this paper examines the changes in the functional age groups of the population of Indonesia from 1971 to the year 2005, and the implications of these changes for education, labour force participation, dependency ratios and fertility. Data for the period 1971 to 1985 are based on actual enumerations, while those for the period 1990 to 2005 are based on projections. Although the provisional totals of the 1990 Census had been released before the publication of this paper, their breakdown by age was still not available. The functional age categories discussed in the paper include the pre-school years, the primary and intermediate school ages, the teenage years, the reproductive ages of women, the principal working ages and the post-work years. It concludes with a discussion of various policy and planning implications of these changes."     

Did primary healthcare user fee abolition matter? Reconsidering South Africa's experience

South Africa waived user fees for primary healthcare in 1994 and, again, in 1996. The first waiver focused on young children, elderly adults, pregnant women and nursing mothers, while the 1996 reform waived fees for the remainder of the population, subject to means tests. We take advantage of household survey information to examine the impact of the policy on a subset of the reform-eligible population. Although it was expected that public healthcare facility usage would have increased post reform, no statistically significant evidence supported such a claim. Therefore, our results are consistent with some very recent research examining the 1994 reform, but are generally at odds with the general impression in the literature that user fee abolition matters when it comes to alleviating inequities in access to healthcare.     

The accumulation of property by southern blacks and whites: Individual-level evidence from a South Carolina cotton county, 1910-1919

This paper examines new data on wealth and wealth accumulation by blacks and whites in Calhoun County, South Carolina between 1910 and 1919. Despite focusing on a single county, the data utilized in this paper make it possible to explore property accumulation by southern blacks and whites in new ways. Unlike previous studies, this one provides information on both real quantities and dollar assessments. This breakdown reveals that the rapid accumulation of property by blacks was entirely real and not due in part to an increasingly discriminatory assessment policy. By merging the assessment data with individual-level census records, it is possible to examine how wealth and wealth accumulation were influenced by race, gender, age, occupation, and literacy. In particular, the effect of literacy on the wealth of black men in 1910 was found to be economically strong in high wealth quantiles but weak in low wealth quantiles. By 1919, the impact of literacy on the wealth of black men had become economically important across the board. Furthermore, literacy had a significant influence on the relative size of wealth accumulations but offered little protection against low accumulations.     

The development status of women in South Africa: Patterns and progress in the provinces

The development status of women in South Africa declined between 1996 and 2001. This study examined whether the decline was pervasive throughout the nine provinces, and whether any development patterns were apparent among the provinces. The findings revealed that women had lost ground across the board, both in absolute terms and relative to men. They also showed that certain ranking patterns prevailed among the nine provinces and, notably, that women in provinces with pre-existing poor development statuses may also be predisposed to a poor development status relative to men. This double burden may translate into a perpetuation of poverty for women who find themselves in these provinces.