实物期权定量分析方法在风险投资决策中的应用

在风险投资项目中，不确定性对风险项目投资评价、决策起到了决定性的作用。运用实物期权原理分析了不确定性对风险投资项目评价和决策的影响，通过风险中性概率方法将这些影响予以定量化，并进一步对实际投资行为作出解释。     

Uncertainty and the market valuation of R&D within a real options logic

The aim of this study is to provide new theoretical insights and empirical evidence on the effect of market and technological uncertainty on the market valuation of a firm's R&D capital. A set of hypotheses is developed adopting a real options logic and tested on a panel dataset of 290 manufacturing firms traded in the UK. Consistently with our theoretical model, we show that market and technological uncertainty have distinct effects on the valuation of R&D investments. The results have several important implications for resource allocation to R&D under uncertainty, which we discuss in the concluding section. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real options and real value: the role of employee incentives to make specific knowledge investments

Real options reasoning emphasizes the strategic value of making flexible investments in a turbulent environment. Employees' investments in specific human capital are often critical to the success of a real option project, but the very flexibility that allows a firm to change course in response to new information also affects employees' incentives to make such specific human capital investments. We develop a model of real option investment that explicitly incorporates the role of employee incentives. The model suggests that the effect of investing in a real option project on employee incentives may be positive, further increasing the value of the project, or negative, sometimes more than offsetting the benefit of flexibility and resulting in reduced project value. Therefore, firms and managers should take into consideration the role of employee incentives when applying real options logic to investment decision making. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The value from acquiring and divesting a joint venture: a real options approach

This study examines the value created from acquiring and divesting a joint venture. Unlike previous research which focuses on parent firm factors, the study examines value in light of the reason behind the termination of the venture and the characteristics of the target market. Consistent with the real options view, the paper finds that ventures divested to refocus a parent firm's product market portfolio were associated with significant value creation. In contrast, ventures acquired with the objective of growth and expansion in a target market, while not associated with significant value creation, did not destroy value either. Apart from these results, the paper also finds that acquirers and divesters gained lesser value when they terminated ventures in uncertain and concentrated industries. These latter findings highlight an important caveat with regard to termination: joint ventures confer valuable flexibility which is also forgone once they are terminated. Implications are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relationship between portfolio diversification and firm value: The evidence from corporate venture capital activity

Corporate venture capital (CVC) activity exposes firms to new technologies and markets. An important but as yet unexplored question is the relationship of the industry diversification profile of the portfolio of venture companies to corporate value creation. Insights from options and diversification perspectives support our hypothesis that diversification of a corporate investor's portfolio of venture companies is related to corporate wealth creation in a U‐shaped relationship. We also propose that a corporate investor's financial constraints moderate the relationship between the diversification profile of its CVC portfolio and value creation. When we tested our hypotheses using a sample of CVC investments across multiple industries, we found support for them, and these findings may inform the CVC activities of corporate investors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The moderating effect of innovative capacity on the relationship between real options and strategic flexibility

In dynamic sectors, organizations should be capable of adapting to unpredictable environmental conditions. Strategic flexibility grants organizations the capacity to respond to the changes in their environment in the direction required, renewing their strategies and making the required organizational changes. The goal of this study is to analyze how the use of real options relates to strategic flexibility from a managerial capacity perspective. Through an empirical study performed on European firms, we confirm that innovative capacity exercises a moderating role between real options and strategic flexibility. The fact that a firm's management has foreseen and contemplated real options does not necessarily lead to their execution; they must also be accompanied by some innovative capacity.     

CEO career horizon,corporate governance,and real options: The role of economic short‐termism

Research Summary: Combining studies on real options theory and economic short‐termism, we propose that, depending on CEOs’ career horizons, CEOs have heterogeneous interests in strategic flexibility, and thus, have different incentives to make real options investments. We argue that compared to CEOs with longer career horizons, CEOs with shorter career horizons will be less inclined to make real options investments because they may not fully reap the rewards during their tenure. In addition, we argue that long‐term incentives and institutional ownership will mitigate the relationship between CEOs’ career horizons and real options investments. U.S. public firms as an empirical setting produced consistent evidence for our predictions. Our study is the first to theoretically explain and empirically show that a CEO's self‐seeking behavior will impact real options investments. Managerial Summary: This article helps to explain how a CEO's self seeking‐behavior may shape a firm's real option investment, which could result in different level of strategic flexibility. We argue that CEOs with short career horizons have less time to exercise their firms’ real options, which should lower the investments in the firms’ real options portfolios relative to CEOs with long career horizons. We study a sample of U.S. public firms and find strong evidence that a CEO's expected tenure in the firm is positively related to the real options investments at the firm level. We find that this agency issue can be mitigated by adopting appropriate corporate governance mechanisms such as long‐term incentives and institutional investors.     

The case for a real options approach to ex-ante cost-benefit analyses of agricultural research projects

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), like many other development agencies and donors, increasingly emphasizes evidence-based programming. This requires assessments of project performance at all stages of implementation, comprising ex-ante impact assessment, monitoring and evaluation, and ex-post attribution of outcomes. Ex-ante impact assessment, in particular, involves performing Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) to determine the Expected Net Present Value (ENPV) of the project in question. Unfortunately, the traditional ENPV approach has proven inadequate for dealing with uncertainty in the timing of investments and flexibility in future decision making. This is especially relevant for Research and Development (R&D) projects which require several stages of product development and multiple rounds of testing prior to releasing final products. As a consequence, the real-options approach to CBA has increasingly been used to evaluate private sector R&D projects. This paper advocates for the adoption of the real options approach in the evaluation of public investments in agricultural research, and illustrates its practical utility with an assessment conducted by USAID to determine the economic viability of a proposed project to develop improved varieties of critical food security crops in Uganda.     

Non‐additivity in portfolios of exploration activities: a real options‐based analysis of equity alliances in biotechnology

Firms invest in exploration‐oriented activities to seek competitive advantage and in response to changing environments. Real options formulations represent an emerging strand of thinking on such investments. In this paper we begin with the observation that firms often simultaneously invest in multiple exploration projects. We identify two sources of potential interactions among these real options investments. First, we investigate the effects of correlations between the outcomes in different options. Second, we analyze the effects of investments that are fungible across project options. We show that under different conditions multiple options can be sub‐additive (due to redundancies in outcomes) or super‐additive (due to fungible inputs). We test the implications of our model with data from the biotech industry and find supporting evidence. Our model and results have some interesting implications for the exploration literature and real options lens. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Small fish,big fish: The performance effects of the relative standing in partners' affiliate portfolios

This study examines whether the value a venture derives from an affiliation depends on its relative standing in the portfolio of all affiliations held by its partner. Relative standing refers to how the venture ranks among other ventures in the partner's portfolio with respect to expected returns. The relative standing of a venture in its partner's portfolio influences the venture's access to the partner's resources and the venture's performance. We also argue that a venture's relative standing becomes more important to performance when the partner has a larger portfolio or higher status. In addition to a field study, we test the effect of a venture's relative standing in a venture capital portfolio on its exit likelihood, controlling for endogeneity. We find support for our hypotheses. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.     

Form or substance: the role of business plans in venture capital decision making

We explore a well‐known instance of fast decision making under high uncertainty, venture capital (VC) opportunity screening. We analyze a sample of 722 funding requests submitted to an American VC firm and evaluate the influence of the form of the submission and content of business planning documents on VC funding decisions. We improve on prior literature by a) using a large sample of known representativeness, b) relating request characteristics to actual VC decisions, and c) developing an inferential logic that takes account of the multiple sources of information to which VCs have access. We find that the presence of planning documents and some information contained therein are weakly associated with VC funding decisions. Based on our inferential strategy, we find that this information is learned independently of its inclusion in the business planning documents. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Migration to 3G wireless broadband internet and real options: The case of an operator in India

The paper focuses on third generation wireless technologies and on alternative technologies for wireless local area networks. The authors present the evolutionary migration path from second to third generation systems. Technological, economic and behavioral factors related to decision-making towards the migration are proposed. As an example, the paper studies the case of the national incumbent operator of India. It analyzes qualitatively the migration problem from the perspective of the operator, the equipment manufacturer and the users. For the quantitative analysis, real options are used to value the investment decisions. The analysis suggests that the initial (sunk) investment cost, the average revenue per user, the growth of the subscriber base and the volatility of the markets are the key factors in the investment process.     

Exploring new product portfolio management decisions: The role of managers' dispositional traits

Product strategy links to new product development (NPD) through new product portfolio management (NPPM). This dynamic decision process addresses the strategy implementation questions of identifying which new product ideas to pursue and their relative priorities. Despite the importance of NPPM in implementing product strategy, firms exhibit substantial performance-affecting differences. We investigate one potential source for such differences by examining the impact of managers' dispositional factors as a possible explanation. Using a case study research method, we examine differences in NPPM strategies and managers' revealed dispositional traits across three divisions of a single conglomerate firm operating in different business-to-business markets. Based on our analysis, we offer propositions relating managers' dispositions to NPPM strategy: analytic cognitive style is associated with balance, ambiguity tolerance is associated with strategic fit, and leadership style is associated with the relative weights applied to each dimension.     

Firm heterogeneity in growth option value: The role of managerial incentives

Growth option value varies widely across firms. This research explores managerial incentives as a source of firm heterogeneity in growth option value. We argue that when the payoff structure of managerial incentives corresponds to that of growth options, managers will be motivated to pursue actions that increase firms' growth option value, particularly when greater growth opportunities are available in an industry. Results indicate that stock option holdings and managerial stock ownership have a positive effect on growth option value, while short‐term pay has a negative effect. We also find support for a positive interaction effect between equity‐based managerial incentives and industry growth opportunities on growth option value. These findings highlight the critical role of managerial incentives in affecting firms' realization of growth option value. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The option to expand to a next generation access network infrastructure and the role of regulation in a discrete time setting: A real options approach

Serious concerns have been raised, especially across Europe, about the role of regulation in network infrastructure investments. More specifically, the installation of optical fiber closer to customer premises, the so-called next generation access networks, requires massive investments in the face of demand and regulatory uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether specific regulatory scenarios (permanent regulation, regulatory forbearance, regulatory holidays and sunset clauses) alter the timing of the investment decision of an incumbent to expand to a new network infrastructure exploiting the binomial lattice approach from real options analysis.     

The influence of relative values of outside director stock options on firm strategic risk from a multiagent perspective

Prior work has examined the effects of absolute levels of outside director stock option grants on risk behavior without recognizing that relative stock option values could differentially affect risk taking. Drawing from the house money effect perspective, we extend this literature by examining how positive deviation from prior outside director option grants values influences firm strategic risk. Additionally we draw from the behavioral agency model and the power literature to develop a multiagent contingency framework suggesting the effect of positive director pay deviation depends on the incentives and power of CEOs reflected in CEO stock ownership and CEO duality, respectively. Our empirical results indicate positive pay deviation has a positive effect on firm risk taking while high ownership and duality independently and jointly weaken this base relationship. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.