A Network Bidder Behavior Model in Online Auctions: A Case of Fine Art Auctions

The marketing literature provides a solid understanding of auctions regarding final sales prices and many aspects of the processes that unfold to result in those outcomes. This research complements those perspectives by first presenting a new bidder behavior model that shows the role of emergent network ties among bidders on the auction outcome. Dyadic ties are identified as the bid and counter-bid patterns of interactions between bidders that unfold throughout the duration of an auction. These structures are modeled using network analyses, which enables: (1) a richer understanding of detailed auction processes, both within auctions and across auctions of multiple lots, (2) a mapping of the processes to the forecast of prices and the trajectory toward final sales prices, (3) the clear and early identification of key bidders who are influential to the bidding action and who impact final auction sales prices, and (4) the results clearly show that the network exchange patterns are significant and contribute to an understanding of auction processes and outcomes above and beyond simple economic predictors such as the number of bids or bidders or the bidders’ economic status. We conclude by providing some managerial implications for online auction houses and bidders.     

Auctioning countermeasures in the WTO

We offer a first formal analysis of auctioning retaliation rights within the WTO. We show that the auctions exhibit externalities among bidders, and we characterize equilibrium bidder behavior under alternative auction formats. If the violating country is prevented from bidding to retire the right of retaliation against it, then the possibility of “auction failure” arises, whereby no bids are made despite positive valuation by bidders. If the violating country is instead permitted to bid, then auction failure is precluded, and indeed the right of retaliation is always retired. We evaluate these different auction formats from normative (revenue, compliance, efficiency) standpoints.     

The Effect of Social Cues on Sniping Behavior in Internet Auctions: Field Evidence and a Lab Experiment

This research explores how social cues presented in an online auction affect sniping behavior. Sniping is a strategy of placing a bid on an item in the very ending stages of an auction with a pre-determined ending time in an attempt to win the auction. Such a strategy conceals the intentions of the bidder until the last moments of the auction and minimizes the possibility of other opposing bidders submitting higher bids due to the short period of time left to respond. The research includes two field studies and a lab experiment indicating that sniping appears to be influenced by social factors, that is, when there are a greater number of bidders in the auction or the auction site provides social information about the bidders, the relative use of sniping increases. This research supports the perspective that bidders rely on others' bidding behavior and characteristics as an indication of the true value of the item on sale, and is one of the first studies in the literature which takes this perspective.     

Bid-Elicitation Interfaces and Bidding Behavior in Retail Interactive Pricing

Advances in information technology have led to a substantial increase in the use of interactive pricing mechanisms, where buyers (i.e., consumers) and sellers (i.e., retailers) enter a formal computer-mediated price-negotiation process during which consumers submit bids for a specific product. This article examines how the interface used for bid elicitation affects bidding behavior and, ultimately, retailer profit. Our focus is on one key aspect of the bid-elicitation interface – how retailers require bidders to articulate their bids. Evidence from four experiments involving economically consequential bids demonstrates that the candidate bid amounts specified by the retailer have a strong influence on bidding behavior, and consequently also on retailer profit. In particular, the level of candidate bid amounts has a positive effect on actual bid amounts, whereas it has a negative impact on the likelihood that a consumer will actually submit a bid. Critically, we show that the former effect can more than offset the latter to cause an increase in retailer profit. We propose and find support for two distinct pathways driving this phenomenon – the candidate bid amounts (1) influence bidders’ valuations of the offered product and (2) shape bidders’ beliefs about what bid amounts will be successful. Our results highlight the importance of the design of user interfaces for interactive pricing, demonstrating that even seemingly innocuous aspects of interfaces can have a dramatic impact on bidding behavior and retailer profit.     

Auction Fever! How Time Pressure and Social Competition Affect Bidders’ Arousal and Bids in Retail Auctions

Auction sites on the Internet frequently put bidders under time pressure or highlight the social competition that is inherent to auctions. Both aspects are believed to elicit an exciting shopping experience, which may culminate in auction fever. In two laboratory experiments, we investigate the process of auction fever in retail auctions and demonstrate when and how auction fever affects bidding behavior. In contrast to previous studies, we employ physiological measurements as an objective and continuous assessment of bidders’ arousal in addition to a subjective assessment of bidders’ emotions through psychometric scales. Moreover, we explicitly study the interaction of time pressure and social competition on arousal and bids. We find that bidders’ arousal is increased in high time pressure auctions and that this leads to higher bids in ascending auctions—but only when bidders compete with human opponents. Thus, social competition is the actual driver underlying the auction fever phenomenon. Furthermore, we show that the “joy of winning” is significantly stronger than the “frustration of losing” in ascending auctions. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for the design of retail auctions.     

An Extension of Ausubel's Auction for Heterogeneous Discrete Goods

Ausubel's dynamic private‐values auction for heterogeneous discrete goods, Ausubel (2006), yields an efficient equilibrium outcome but it is designed for a limited class of environments. If bidders’ values for bundles of goods are not integers, then Ausubel's auction may end without allocating goods if no information on bidders’ values is available. In this paper, I extend Ausubel's auction for heterogeneous discrete goods to real‐valued quasilinear utility functions. The mechanism I propose reaches a Walrasian equilibrium price vector in finite ‘steps’ without any additional information on bidders’ values. In the extension of Ausubel's auction, truthful bidding constitutes an efficient equilibrium.     

Strategic Bidding for Multiple Units in Simultaneous and Sequential Auctions

A buyer in an electronic marketplace may be interested in buying a bundle of items, where any one item in the bundle may not be of particular interest. The emergence of online auctions allow such users to obtain bundles by bidding on different simultaneous or sequentially run auctions. Because the number of auctions and the number of combinations to form the bundles may be large, the bundle bidding problem becomes intractable and the user is likely to make sub-optimal decision given time constraints and information overload. We believe that an automated agent that takes user preferences and budgetary constraints and can strategically bid on behalf of a user can significantly enhance user profit and satisfaction. Our first step to developing such an agent is to consider bundles containing many units of a single item to be bought from auctions that sell only multiple units of one item type. We assume that users obtain goods over several days. Expectations of auctions and their outcome in the future allow the agent to bid strategically on currently open auctions. We present an expected utility based strategy to decide how many items to bid for in the current auctions, and the maximum price to bid for each item. We evaluate our proposed strategy in different configurations by varying the number of items sold per auction, number of concurrently running auctions, expected closing prices, etc. We simulate several multiple unit English auctions per day, over multiple days, where most of the bidders bid their true utilities drawn from a distribution. The strategic bidding agent has knowledge of this distribution and uses it to determine its bids. A strategic agent who looks farther ahead into the future produces larger returns when there are few strategic bidders. We also evaluate the effect of risk attitudes on the relative performance of the bidders.     

Consequences of Riding Takeover Waves: Australian Evidence

This paper uses Australian data to analyze takeover bid premiums and long‐term abnormal returns for mergers that occur during wave and non‐wave periods. Findings reveal that bid premiums are slightly lower in wave periods, and bidding firms earn normal post‐takeover returns (relative to a portfolio of firms matched on size and survival) if their bids were made in non‐wave periods. However, bidders who announced their takeover bids during wave periods exhibit significant underperformance. For mergers that took place within waves, there is no difference in bid premiums nor is there a difference in the long‐run returns of bidders involved during the first half and second half of the waves. We find that none of prominent theories of merger waves (managerial, misvaluation, and neoclassical) can fully account for Australian takeover waves and their effects. Instead, our results suggest that Banal‐Estanol et al.'s screening theory of merger activity, by combining the misvaluation and neoclassical theories, may provide a better explanation.     

Bidding Strategies and Consumer Savings in NYOP Auctions

We investigate how bidding strategies of successful bidders influence the savings they derive from a Name Your Own Price (NYOP) retailer relative to buying the same product from a retailer who posts prices. Utilizing bidding data for hotel room purchases we demonstrate that consumer savings rate depends positively on consumer decision to haggle (# bids ≥3) and on the shape of the bid function. Relative to non-hagglers (# bids ≤2), hagglers who employ a constant bid increment (i.e., a linear) strategy and a decreasing bid increment (i.e., concave) strategy save more, while those who employ an increasing bid increment strategy (i.e., convex) fare no better. A post hoc analysis also shows that hagglers place many bids in the pursuit of higher quality products, while non-hagglers save friction costs by sacrificing quality (e.g., targeting lower star hotels and adjusting the days of travel).     

A Sealed-Bid Two-Attribute Yardstick Auction Without Prior Scoring

We analyze a two-attribute single item procurement auction that uses yardstick competition to settle prices. The auction simplifies the procurement process by reducing the principal’s articulation of preferences to simply choosing the most preferred offer as if it was a market with posted prices. This is done simply by replacing the submitted sealed bids by yardstick bids, computed by a linear weighting of the other participants’ bids. We show that there is only one type of Nash equilibria where some agents may win the auction by submitting a zero price-bid. Using a simulation study we demonstrate that following this type of equilibrium behavior often leads to winner’s curse. The simulations show that in auctions with more than 12 participants the chance of facing winner’s curse is around 95 %. Truthful reporting, on the other hand, does not constitute a Nash equilibrium but it is ex post individually rational. Using a simulation study we demonstrate that truthful bidding may indeed represent some kind of focal point.     

Revenue implication of auction value in <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis>-price sealed-bid auctions: An experimental study

In this paper, we show that in a heterogeneous bidding community with predominantly risk-seeking bidders, third-price sealed-bid auctions yield higher revenue for the seller than first-price sealed-bid auctions when the auction value is low. Conversely, when the value of the auction is high, first-price sealed-bid auctions yield higher revenue for the seller than third-price sealed-bid auctions. Existing theoretical findings for a homogeneous group of risk-seeking individuals imply that third-price sealed-bid auctions should generate higher revenues for the seller than first-price sealed-bid auctions. Our results for low-value auctions agree but our results for high-value auctions do not agree with the existing findings. We discuss the implications of this discrepancy as a function of the shift in goal orientation from a win-focus to a value-focus as the value of the auction increases.

The effect of experience on Internet auction bidding dynamics

On the basis of the bidding history of a panel of new eBay bidders, we examine the impact of different types of experiences on bidding behavior evolution. Accounting for unobserved bidder heterogeneity, the results indicate that losing experiences make the bidders’ bidding behavior evolve toward the normative predictions of auction theory, in that they submit fewer bids and bid later. Winning experiences, however, do not have such an effect. Moreover, the experience effect pertains to the bidder’s entire previous bidding experience regardless of product categories. We also assess the potential bias introduced by using feedback ratings (compared with actual participation) as experience measures.

A Transaction Utility Approach for Bidding in Second-Price Auctions

In both the Vickrey and eBay auctions, bidding the reservation price is the optimal strategy within the conventional utility framework. However, in practice, buyers tend to bid less than their reservation prices, and bid multiple times, thus increase their bids, in the course of an auction. In this paper, we show that both underbidding and multiple bidding behaviors can be consistent with utility maximization, if buyer's utility incorporates a transaction utility (reference price dependent) component. Transaction utility is based on the difference between the buyer's reference price and actual price paid; it captures the perceived value of the deal. More specifically, we show that the optimal bid is lower than the reservation price, but higher than the reference price. Furthermore, buyer may re-bid (above the prior optimal level) if the reference price is revised upon observing a higher current price.     

Procurement bidding with restrictions

In many procurement situations with simultaneously offered projects, firms face participation restrictions and can bid only on a subset of the projects. This phenomenon is prevalent in a variety of observed situations such as bidding for private label supplies, business to business procurement or government projects. We show that for the case of n bidding firms where each is restricted to bid on a subset of the offered projects, there exists a symmetric equilibrium in which each bidder has a positive expected equilibrium profit. Prices are bounded away from marginal costs even if all the bidders are homogenous. This results from the fact that there is a positive probability that each firm will find itself in the position of being the sole bidder on a project. While the equilibrium probability of bidding on a project increases with its value, it is interesting to note that the bidding probability on the projects approaches an equiprobable one as the number of bidding firms increases. We find that the equilibrium profits decrease as firms are able to bid on more of the available projects. In contrast, bidder commitment to bid on specific projects increases the equilibrium profits of all firms. We also examine the effect of heterogeneity on equilibrium profits. Greater heterogeneity in the project valuations leads to lower firm profits. On the other hand, heterogeneity among bidders in terms of the number of projects that they are constrained to bid on leads to greater profits for the firms that can bid on more projects (regardless of the mix of the firms in the industry.) Finally, we analyze the effect of uncertainty in project valuations and show greater uncertainty in project valuations (as represented by a mean preserving spread) decreases the equilibrium profits. We conclude with an empirical analysis of bidding behavior that tests the predictions of the theory. We find that the probability of bidding on a particular project is increasing in its value, decreasing in the other projects values and decreasing in the number of bidding subjects. Furthermore, the value of the bids on a project increase with its valuation and decrease with the total number of bidders.

Vettes and lemons on eBay

This paper empirically tests whether there are asymmetric information problems in the market for used Chevrolet Corvettes sold on eBay. The first test is based on a result from Akerlof (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1970). If there is asymmetric information in the used market, bidders should place a premium on a new Corvette, all else equal. The paper finds little systematic evidence of a new car premium. The second test is based on a result from Bajari and Hortacsu (Rand Journal of Economics 34(2):329–355, 2003). If there is asymmetric information, then bidders will prefer to bid late in the auction in order to conceal their private information from other bidders. The paper fails to find evidence of more late bidding on used Corvettes relative to new Corvettes. The third test is based on the idea that if there is asymmetric information then there may be a winner’s curse problem in these auctions. The paper fails to find evidence consistent with bidders avoiding the winner’s curse. The results are not consistent with asymmetric information problems in the market for used Corvettes sold on eBay. It is not clear however, whether this result generalizes to other cars sold on eBay or cars sold in the off-line market.     

The impact of jump bidding in online auctions

This paper reports findings of two field studies, conducted on a local online auction website, that compare bidding strategies in charity and non-charity auctions, focusing on the extent of jump bidding at different stages of auctions. Results indicate that jump bidding is negatively correlated with bidder entry and positively associated with ending prices. These correlations are greatest during the beginning stage of auctions and are substantially larger for charity auctions than for non-charity auctions. Additionally, early-stage jump bidding occurred more often in charity auctions (consistent with bidders trying to drive up prices in charity auctions), ending-stage jump bidding was more frequent in non-charity auctions (possibly used strategically to win the auction). Further, frivolous products tended to sell at a higher proportion of retail value in charity auctions, providing a replication of the results of previous researchers but in a field setting.     

An Empirical Analysis of Bidding Fees in Name-your-own-price Auctions

Interactive pricing mechanisms integrate customers into the price-setting process by letting them submit bids. Name-your-own-price auctions are such an interactive pricing mechanism, where buyers' bids denote the final price of a product or service in case they surpass a secret threshold price set by the seller. If buyers are given the flexibility to bid repeatedly, they might try to incrementally bid up to the threshold. In this case, charging fees for the option to place additional bids could generate extra revenue and reduce incremental bidding behavior. Based on an economic model of consumer bidding behavior in name-your-own-price auctions and two empirical studies, we analytically and empirically investigate the effects bidding fees have on buyers' bidding behavior. Moreover, we analyze the impact of bidding fees on seller revenue and profit based on our empirical results.     

Coveted or Overlooked? The Psychology of Bidding for Comparable Listings in Digital Auctions

This article elaborates on, and provides evidence of the herd behavior bias -- the tendency to gravitate toward, and bid for, auction listings with one or more existing bids, ignoring comparable or even more attractive unbid-for listings available at the same time -- exhibited by buyers in digital auctions. Some listings attract many bidders and become coveted, the center of bidding attention, while other equivalent or even superior listings are overlooked, receiving no bids at all. Empirical analysis using data from digital auctions across different product categories shows that this herd behavior bias is attenuated with increasing bid price, but increases with the difficulty of evaluating quality. The practical implications of these findings, and promising research opportunities in this area are also discussed.     

FIDIC合同条件下不平衡报价控制模式研究

在FIDIC合同条件下．低价中标成为业主选择承包商的重要原则之一。不平衡报价成为承包商投标报价中一种广泛应用的报价策略。针对建筑市场出现的不平衡报价现状以及法律制约的缺失,通过分析承包商常用的不平衡报价策略．利用综合不平衡度法和净现值评价法构建了不平衡报价的控制模型,为防范不平衡报价提供了有效的保证。     

The Determinants of Outcome in UK Take–over Bids

In this paper we have investigated the determinants of the outcome of 238 friendly and hostile take–over bids that occurred in the UK during the 1980s. We also use our model for prediction purposes and in order to map the effects of a variety of independent variables on the probability of the bid being successful. Our main results can be summarised as follows. First, target management resistance and the wealth effect of a bid are key determinants of the outcome of a bid. Second, we find limited evidence to suggest that share ownership by the bidding company and by target directors also contributes significantly to bid outcome. In the latter case we find a non–linear relationship consistent with the argument that when director holdings are low the bid is discouraged but when they are high the bid is encouraged. Third, our model is good at predicting outcome for all bids but weak at predicting the outcome of hostile bids on their own.