我国生猪价格与玉米价格的动态传导关系研究

本文运用门限协整检验来研究我国生猪养殖规模化前阶段(1994-2006年)和规模化后阶段(2007至今)的生猪价格与玉米价格的动态传导关系,发现生猪价格与玉米价格存在长期均衡(协整)关系。在规模化前阶段,生猪价格与玉米价格的传导关系是非对称的,而在规模化后阶段的传导是对称的。所以,应保持玉米价格的相对稳定,进一步推动生猪规模化养殖,完善农产品价格信息发布平台,加快生猪期货上市。     

中国玉米价格对生猪价格的非线性传导效应及机制分解——基于STR模型的实证分析

生猪市场价格的超常波动逆向加剧生猪养殖环节的不确定性,给中国生猪产业健康发展带来巨大风险.玉米是生猪饲养投入品的重要原料,选择STR模型,使用2000年1月～2015年6月玉米和生猪价格月度数据进行实证分析,证实并阐述玉米价格对生猪价格平滑转换的非线性传导机制及其过程在此基础上,测度机制转化的阈值,根据平滑转化机制及其阈值,提出平抑生猪价格超常波动、维护生猪产业健康的策略.     

生猪与猪肉间价格传导机制的区制转移与非对称性特征研究

基于具有马尔科夫区制转移的非对称误差修正模型,本文分析了我国生猪和猪肉价格间传导机制的区制状态、转移概率和非对称性特征。研究结果表明:生猪和猪肉价格水平值之间存在着长期协整关系,猪肉市场整合程度较高;它们的增长率序列之间存在着"对称性传导"和"非对称性传导"两区制的短期非线性动态调整关系;两区制间的转移概率具有非对称性,"非对称性传导"区制具有稳定性强、发生频率高和持续期长的特征;在"非对称性传导"区制中,猪肉价格对生猪价格上涨的调整幅度和速度均大于对生猪价格下降的调整幅度和速度。因此,降低生猪和猪肉价格间传导的非对称程度有利于提升储备猪肉政策的实施效果。     

国际市场玉米价格对国内市场玉米价格的传导研究

随着我国对外开放步伐的加快,国际、国内市场玉米价格的关联度日益紧密.从过去十几年国际、国内市场玉米价格走势来看,国际市场玉米价格波动幅度更大,国内市场玉米价格波动幅度相对较小.通过对国际、国内市场玉米价格的传导分析,提出了进一步改革玉米收储政策、加强相关政策支持及引导力度、健全国际市场粮食价格预警机制等对策建议,以确保国内市场玉米价格稳定,促进我国玉米产业持续健康发展.     

中国生猪价格与猪肉价格非对称传导效应研究——基于VEC-TARCH模型

猪肉价格剧烈波动对城乡居民肉类消费产生了显著影响.为了弄清中国生猪价格与猪肉价格非对称传导效应,运用向量误差修正模型(VEC)实证分析了中国生猪价格与猪肉价格传导关系.结果表明:中国生猪价格与猪肉价格存在长期均衡正向关系,猪肉价格调控难度增大.非对称条件异方差模型(TARCH)实证分析结果显示:中国生猪价格与猪肉价格之间的传导具有双向非对称性特征,其原因是生猪价格和猪肉价格在传导过程中受到了产业链利益相关者议价能力差异、生猪供给与猪肉消费均衡的滞后性影响.     

我国生猪产业链各环节价格影响因素实证研究

本文从横向角度分析了生猪产业链各环节价格的决定因素,从纵向角度探讨了生猪产业链价格之间的相互关系。研究结论表明,横向价格决定的差异性和纵向价格信息不对称是生猪产业链价格系统不均衡的主要原因。根据分析,本文从产业素质、价格预期和市场整合度三方面提出引领产业链各环节价格均衡发展的对策建议。     

生猪价格波动与生猪价格高位运行关系研究

利用描述性统计和ARCH类模型,研究了我国1997年～2012年生猪价格波动及其对生猪价格运行的影响.结论表明,生猪价格波动是生猪价格高位运行的重要原因,生猪价格波动受到通货膨胀和季节性因素影响,具有明显的平滑性特征,但非对称性特征不显著.因此,保持货币政策稳定、加强产销对接管理、防范生猪价格大起大落、统筹价格上升和下跌调控措施,是稳定生猪市场、抑制其价格高位运行的重要举措.     

我国水产品价格上下游传导机制的实证分析

文章针对目前的水产品价格现状进行分析,提出上下游之间的成本和销售价格之间互为影响的观点,但是由于环节复杂,两者的相互作用力并不能够起到作用。以2002—2017年的水产品数据为样本,使用分布滞后模型、脉冲响应函数与方差分解的方法对我国水产品成本价格和销售价格传导机制的顺畅性进行实证分析。得出两者作用力不均衡,中间环节消耗了作用力,价格传导机制不顺畅的结论。     

我国养猪业价格波动的传导机制研究

本文以玉米价格、育肥猪配合饲料价格、仔猪价格、待宰活猪价格和猪肉价格组成的养猪业价格系统为研究对象,首先揭示各种价格之间的引导关系,然后运用有限分布滞后模型分析研究养猪业价格传导机制。结果表明,中国养猪业上下游价格传导存在着不超过5个月的时滞,养猪业市场纵向整合度较高。     

我国价格传导机制研究

2002年以来．我国市场物价出现了新一轮的温和上涨。与以往价格上涨态势不同的是，此轮价格上涨呈现CPI与PPI价格走势相对独立的态势，对此理论界、管理部门将其描述为“传导机制出现了问题”。目前，本轮价格上涨已接近尾声，CPI、PPI价格均在低位运行，值此之时我们对我国目前价格传导机制做了较为深入的研究．供社会各界参考。     

我国猪肉市场非对称价格传导机制研究

毛猪产业在我国经济生活中扮演着举足轻重的角色,为了捕捉生猪价格与猪肉价格之间的传导过程关系,本文使用非线性门槛回归(Threshold auto-regressive TAR)和动量门槛回归(Monmentum-Threshold auto-regressive,M-TAR)模型,检验2006年7月1日-2011年9月30日我国猪肉市场的传导过程是否存在一种非对称关系,并通过建立不对称调整项的误差修正模型,探讨我国生猪与猪肉零售价格之间的因果以及短期动态关系。实证结果发现我国生猪与猪肉零售市场之间存在负的非对称性的价格传导关系,这可能与我国猪肉市场受到高度政策干预和市场结构有关。     

Price Transmission and Threshold Behavior in the African Catfish Supply Chain in Uganda

Abstract

The issue of price linkage in the catfish supply chain in Uganda is important because catfish has become an important traded species with exports to regional markets rising even faster than production, yet limited research has been undertaken to understand the linkages and the non-linearity in the price transmission mechanism. This paper explores the issue using monthly price data from January 2006 to August 2013, and applies threshold autoregressive approaches to test for the existence of a long-run relationship and price asymmetry. The results show that prices in the catfish value chain are tied together by a long-run relationship. It is also revealed that ex-vessel and wholesale price adjustments to retail price changes are symmetric while ex-vessel price adjustments to wholesale price changes are shown to be asymmetric. The direction of causal relationships was observed from the retail to the wholesale and ex-vessel markets, indicating that retailers are the price leaders in the Uganda catfish supply chain.     

会计信息、共同知识与资产定价:一个会计信息传导的理论分析框架

通过将会计信息作用于"企业"这种资产的定价过程概括为会计信息传导,本文分析会计信息与资产定价的本质关联、会计信息传导制度安排的因应及影响会计信息传导效率的因素。会计信息与资产定价的内在关联体现为会计信息对"企业现场知识"的传导过程,会计信息传导的相关制度安排是为了尽可能形成市场参与者对企业的共同知识,以增强资产价格形成的"集体理性",而会计信息的传导效率则应从其时效、精度、受众广度及市场参与者对之的信任等四个方面进行界定。     

Exchange rate determination: The role of factor price rigidities and nontradeables

This paper introduces factor (labor) markets into the intertemporal monetary model of Obstfeld and Rogoff and combines this richer market structure with a new utility-independent representation of nontradeables. This allows us to explore the international monetary transmission mechanism for factor price (wage) rigidities under different degrees of macroeconomic openness. Factor price rigidities imply similar properties for the international transmission mechanism as domestic producer price rigidities. Nontradeables give raise to interesting new effects under asymmetric monetary shocks: They create short-run PPP deviations, increase exchange rate volatility relative to price level volatility and reduce (positive) consumption and (negative) output comovements.     

我国网络银行风险预期的传导机制分析

案件风险及所引致的不安全预期广泛传导,已成为我国网络银行发展的重要障碍,本文通过几个简单的模型分析案件风险及预期传导机制,并对阻断风险预期的传导、缩小风险影响提出对策建议。     

对价值和价格关系的解读

在资产评估中经常接触价值和价格两个概念,笔者结合工作实际和所学理论进行阐述两者关系和市场特征.     

开放条件下金融风险的生成机理与传导机制

在开放条件下,金融风险具有特殊性。金融风险既可能来自经济体内部的各种宏观、微观因素影响,又可能来自外部的各种因素冲击。日益扩大的金融风险严重威胁到各种经济体的生存和发展。金融风险产生后,风险源如果未被及时化解而长时积累,就会通过一定的对象和载体,沿特定的传导路径传导和扩散,并且达到一定强度。金融风险经过这一特定的机制积累并加剧,进而可能引发金融危机。通过分析金融风险的传导机制,可以隔断金融风险继续传导的渠道,缩小金融风险范围,从而控制金融风险。     

中国稀土出口管制的国际传导机制及效应研究

稀土出口管制的目的在于保护战略性资源和保护生态环境。中国实施的稀土出口管制政策从数量、价格和信息3个传导机制对国际稀土市场产生影响。随着稀土管制强度的不断加大,中国稀土出口的地区结构及世界稀土出口的国别结构均发生了显著变化。管制政策给世界稀土贸易带来了显著的替代效应、创造效应和结构效应。澳大利亚、墨西哥和印度对中国稀土的替代效应尤为显著。香港和新加坡的稀土转口贸易比以前更为活跃。     

Measuring the spatial price differences in China with regional price parity methods

The measurement of prices has been an important field in economics, and a spatial price index is very useful in comparing the standards of living and well-being across regions in a country. This paper intends to measure the regional price parities (RPPs) across different provincial areas in China with an urban sample of 140 goods and services in 2015 according to the framework of the International Comparison Program (ICP) methodology. The results show that the RPPs that were estimated with commonly used approaches, such as the Gini–Éltetö–Köves–Szulc (GEKS), Geary–Khamis (GK) and weighted country product dummy (WCPD), are only slightly different. The RPPs of three regions including Guangdong, Shanghai and Zhejiang are greater than 1 (with Beijing = 1), while the other 27 regions are all lower than 1, which represents price levels that are less than Beijing. In the extrapolation of the RPPs from 2000 to 2014, a significant descending trend is found for the standard deviation series of the RPPs over time that shows that the price differences across regions decreased during the extrapolating period. This finding provides evidence of a phenomenon of spatial price converging in China. Finally, a study on the deflation of provincial aggregates with the RPPs reveals that the spatial price adjustment will change the ranks or relative importance of different regions in the country. Especially, the measurement of income inequality proves that the Gini coefficients of provincial income deflated by the RPP^GEKS are all lower than the Gini coefficients of unadjusted incomes.     

The correlations between price cuts/changes and fee sensitivity on the choice of mobile phone service provider

This study adopts fee thresholds to measure users' fee sensitivity and employs a two-step logit model to predict a phone user's probability of choosing a certain service provider. The results indicate that the choice probability can be overestimated if the reference fee effect is not taken into consideration. Furthermore, the lower calling fee image and perceptions shaped by the telecommunications service provider can increase the probability of it being chosen. Users' benefit (saving money) perceptions also reveal a significant difference. In this regard, price promotion effects may not necessarily be successful for every service provider at the time. Service providers with a larger base of benefit perception users have a relative advantage in price-cutting activities. The characteristics of users in the low-loss perception (insensitive to an expensive fee) group are younger, female, and college-educated. Service providers could focus on this segmented market and implement a non-price strategy in order to attract more users. This study may be useful to mobile phone service providers in terms of price-setting policy and image management.