FDI与国内资本:挤出还是挤入

本文应用中国省际面板数据对FDI与国内资本的关系进行了实证研究。结果发现:FDI对国内资本存在挤入效应,产生这种效应的原因与FDI主要以“绿地投资”的方式进入并主要分布于中国实力较强的制造业有关,也与中国市场整体竞争程度较高有关;由于政府“偏向性的”政策和私人资本“发育滞后”,FDI对国有资本的挤入作用大于对私人资本的作用;在FDI对国内资本的挤入效应中,金融支持具有“协进”的作用,即金融支持越强,挤入效应越大。     

MONETARY POLICY AND LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES

Movements in long-term interest rates Granger-cause movements in the target federal funds rate, but not vice versa, during 1990–2001. This implies that changes in the monetary policy stance, as measured by the target rate, are predicted by the bond market. Moreover, even innovations to the target rate have little effect on long-term interest rates. The policy instrument seems to be responding to information that is already impounded in the bond market. In sharp contrast, during an earlier period, changes in the target federal funds rate are mostly unanticipated by the bond market, and innovations to the policy target have a large and significant effect on long-term interest rate. ( JEL E52, E43)     

NOMINAL BONDS AND INTEREST RATES*

In this article, I integrate the microfoundation of monetary theory with the model of limited participation to analyze the competition between nominal bonds and money. The market for government nominal bonds is centralized and Walrasian, whereas the goods market is modeled as random matches. The government imposes a legal restriction that requires all government goods to be purchased with money but not with bonds. By contrast, private agents can exchange between themselves with both money and bonds. I show that an arbitrarily small legal restriction is sufficient to prevent matured bonds from being a medium of exchange. I also analyze the effects of monetary policy with and without the legal restriction. Some of those effects differ significantly from traditional monetary models.     

MONETARY POLICY AND LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES: A SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This paper surveys recent empirical literature on effects of monetary policy on long-term interest rates. Most studies reviewed here suggest that tightening monetary policy results in higher long-term interest rates. But available evidence suffers from conceptual and empirical problems and fails to indicate the magnitude of short-run and long-run policy effects on long rates. Also, recent studies have not investigated the possibility of shifts in recent-year effects of monetary policy on long rates. Finally, the paper offers a policy perspective on limitations of existing evidence and suggests future research on monetary policy effects on long rates.     

INTEREST RATES IN GROUP LENDING: A BEHAVIOURAL INVESTIGATION

Abstract.  Microfinance institutions (MFIs) serve more than 5 million households in developing countries. A crucial variable for MFI schemes is the interest rate to be charged from borrowers. This paper studies the behavioural impacts of the repayment burden on repayment performance. In a laboratory experiment, we vary the amount a borrower group has to repay and study how this affects free-riding behaviour. We can identify two counteracting effects: a higher repayment burden intensifies the incentives to free-ride as shirking saves more money. On the other hand, high-interest loans are less tolerant towards defaulters, which exerts a disciplining effect.     

THE MISSING LINK BETWEEN INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND INTEREST RATES

In the literature, there is no consensus about the direction of the effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates. This paper states that such a result may stem from differentiation in the sources of the uncertainties and analyzes the effects of different types of inflation uncertainties on a set of interest rates for the UK within an interest rate rule framework. Three types of inflation uncertainties – impulse uncertainty, structural uncertainty and steady‐state uncertainty – are derived by using a time‐varying parameter model with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity specification. It is shown that the impulse uncertainty is positively and the structural uncertainty is negatively correlated with the interest rates. Moreover, these two uncertainties are important to explain short‐term interest rates for the period of inflation targeting era. However, this time, the impulse uncertainty is negatively and the structural uncertainty is positively correlated with the overnight interbank interest rates, which is consistent with the general characteristic of the inflation targeting regimes. Lastly, the evidence concerning the effect of the steady‐state inflation uncertainty on interest rates is not conclusive.     

THE TEMPORAL CAUSALITY BETWEEN FISCAL DEFICITS AND INTEREST RATES

Conventional wisdom suggests that higher government fiscal deficits cause higher (long-term) interest rates. Much empirical work—generally standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis—has examined this issue and has produced mixed findings. Even if these standard OLS studies conclude that deficits and interest rates are related, they do not answer the question of which came first—the higher deficit or the higher interest rate? A few studies have used Granger causality to consider the question of temporal causality, generally with short-term interest rates. Tliis paper employs the relatively new cointegration and error-correction methodology to reexamine the temporal causality between fiscal deficits and interest rates—both long term and short term. This study finds evidence that federal deficits cause the long-term interest rate.     

INTEREST RATES, RATE SPREADS, AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Interest rates and the spreads between interest rates are widely regarded as useful indicators of the future level of economic activity. This paper shows that when these series are divided into (i) an ordinary time series process and (ii) the effects of extraordinary disturbances, only the extraordinary disturbances predict economic activity. These disturbances are associated with periods of monetary policy intervention. Most of the predictive power is in contractionary disturbances that have persistent effects over time. The results imply that the predictive power of interest rates comes primarily from periods of contractionary monetary policy and is not due to ordinary movements in interest rates.     

BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATES AND CAPITAL MOBILITY IN ASIAN ECONOMIES

This paper examines whether foreign exchange black markets have eroded the effectiveness of capital controls and contributed to an increase in the effective degree of capital mobility in a sample of Asian countries. Comparing the uncovered interest parity forecast errors between the official and black market exchange rates suggests that in those countries with more stringent capital controls, foreign exchange black markets have reached a maturity level to threaten the effectiveness of those controls.     

EFFECTS OF STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATES AND VOLATILITY ON CONTINGENT CLAIMS*

We investigate the effects of stochastic interest rates and the volatility of the underlying asset price on contingent claim prices including futures and options prices. The futures price can be decomposed into the forward price and an additional term; the options price can be decomposed into the Black‐Scholes formula and several additional terms by applying the asymptotic expansion approach of the small disturbance asymptotics developed by Kunitomo and Takahashi (1995, 1998, 2001, 2003a, 2003b). The technical method is based on a new application of the Malliavin‐Watanabe Calculus or the Watanabe‐Yoshida Theory on Malliavin Calculus in stochastic analysis. We illustrate our new formulae and their numerical accuracy.     

区域经济一体化、FDI与国际生产转移:一个自由资本模型

本文在继承了传统区域经济一体化理论的基础上,借助新经济地理学的特有研究方法和概念框架,构建一个带有区域化特征的四国八地区的自由资本模型,通过模拟方法分析了南北型、北北型以及南南型区域一体化组织对于国际直接投资的流动规模、流动方向、区位分布的差异化影响。证明了在存在二元经济结构的情况下,国际资本会在区域一体化组织内外、成员国之间以及成员内部等三个层面产生积聚现象,形成生产布局的空间不均衡,并就此提出本文的经济政策含义。     

人力资本与企业组织结构:一个初步模型

20世纪90年代以来,企业组织结构扁平化趋势与企业内部人力资本水平提高趋势并存。人力资本水平的提高会导致组织结构的扁平化,并且有助于提高组织交流效率。企业人力资本水平的持续提高将进一步促使企业组织结构朝扁平化方向发展。     

THE INTERNATIONAL DEMONSTRATION EFFECT AND THE DOMESTIC DIVISION OF LABOUR: A SIMPLE MODEL

Abstract.  The implications of the international demonstration effect (IDE) for the development of underdeveloped economies have long been studied and debated. Yet few formal analyses exist in the literature, especially regarding its implications for the growth of domestic markets and the division of labour in developing economies. We offer an analysis of endogenous specialization under the IDE, the first of its kind, showing that, far more complicated than the scenario held by conventional wisdom, the IDE makes more difficult the emergence of the market underpinning the domestic division of labour, but facilitates the expansion of the market once it has been developed.     

社会资本与区域产业集聚：理论模型与中国经验

本文将新经济地理学中的资本创造模型（CC模型）和社会资本理论相结合,构建了社会资本与区域产业集聚理论模型,考察了社会资本促进区域产业集聚的微观机制。理论分析表明,社会资本越丰富的地区产业集聚程度越高。在此基础上,笔者运用2004年30个省（市）26个制造业行业的数据进行了经验研究。在控制了区位、经济功能、市场潜力、人力资本、政策等因素和异方差的影响后,社会资本对产业集聚有显著影响,并且在使用工具变量克服变量内生性后,以上结论依然稳健。因而,通过提升中西部地区社会资本,有助于建立中西部地区自我发展能力,缩小区域差距。     

PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURES, HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY: A TWO-STAGE EDUCATION MODEL

We show in this paper that, depending on the initial distribution of material wealth and that of individuals' abilities, economies converge in the long run towards different proportions of the skilled workforce and different levels of average wealth. We also show that the growth process raises net economic mobility, the long-run proportion of the skilled population and the long-run levels of wealth held by both rich and poor dynasties. Unless the income tax rate is too high, the increase in total public funds is associated, in the long run, with higher net mobility, a larger fraction of the skilled workers and higher levels of wealth of all the dynasties. In addition, the reallocation of public expenditures from basic to advanced education can result in lower mobility, a lower long-run size of the skilled workforce, and a lower long-run level of wealth held by rich dynasties, if the transfer of resources comes at the expense of excessively lowering the quality of education at the basic schooling level.