Selection and historical height data: Evidence from the 1892 Boas sample of the Cherokee Nation

Economists have increasingly turned to height data to gain insight into a population's standard of living. Because height measures are used when other data are unavailable, testing their reliability can be difficult, and concerns over sample selection have led to several vigorous debates within the heights literature. In this paper, I use a unique contemporaneous census to gauge the extent of selection into a contested sample of American Indian heights. I have linked people from the 1892 Boas sample of the Cherokee Nation to the 1890 Cherokee Census. An initial analysis finds evidence of negative selection into the Boas sample. A detailed examination of those measured reveals a more complex story. Two distinct groups are present within the data. The first group consists of 64 members of the Cherokee elite. Their households owned more land, invested more in improvements to their land, and had higher literacy rates. The remainder of the Boas sample is poor relative to both the elite and the rest of the Cherokee Nation. Part, but not all, of this difference is due to their residential location. Forty percent of the Boas sample lived in poorest district of Cherokee Nation. These differences in wealth between the two groups were mirrored by a fairly dramatic difference in average heights. The average height of all men in elite group was 173.9 cm while the non-elite were several centimeters shorter at just 171.2 cm.     

An empirical evaluation of the 1986 Semiconductor Trade Arrangement

In the paper, we aim to empirically evaluate the extent to which the 1986 Semiconductor Trade Arrangement (STA) affected the Japanese producers’ behavior in the market for the 1 M Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) chips. Based on the Euler equation of non-Japanese firms’ learning-curve optimization, we estimate the marginal cost function and then calculate Japanese price-cost margins by using nonparametric estimation. Our estimation results show that the price-cost margins of Japanese firms were set far above the learning-curve optimization margins but still lower than the marginal costs on average. Hence we can infer that the STA could not push the price above the average Japanese marginal cost but facilitate the Japanese firms to collude to set the price-cost margins by taking account of learning-by-doing effects. This empirical finding and no significant spillover effect are combined with other observations to imply that the STA might have enabled later-entering non-Japanese firms to rapidly expand their market shares and get a foot in the door of the R&D competition for new generational DRAM.     

Is the price elasticity of demand for coal in China increasing?

China's dependence on coal is a major contributor to local and global environmental problems. In this paper we estimate the price elasticity of demand for coal in China using a panel of province-level data for 1998–2012. We find that provincial coal demand has become increasingly price elastic. As of 2012 we estimate that this elasticity was in the range − 0.3 to − 0.7 in point estimate terms when responses over two years are considered. The results imply that China's coal market is becoming more suited to price-based approaches to reducing emissions. The elimination of coal consumption subsidies could reduce national coal use and related emissions by around 2%.     

Estimating transport costs and trade barriers in China: Direct evidence from Chinese agricultural traders

Using a unique survey data on agricultural traders in China in 2004, this study provides direct evidence on the significance of inter-regional trade barriers and their key components. Our major findings are as follows. (1) The trade barriers within China are fairly small, accounting for about 20% of trade value. (2) Transport and non-transport costs respectively contribute 42% and 58% to the trade barriers. (3) Labor and transport-related taxes are the two largest proportions of total transport costs, and respectively account for 35% and 30%. (4) Artificial trade barriers created by the government are not sizable as we perceived. (5) Road quality is crucial for reducing transport costs within China: increasing transport speed by 1 km per hour, the total transport costs for Chinese agricultural traders would decrease by 0.6%, mainly due to improved fuel-burning efficiency and reduced labor requirement.     

Long memory volatility dependency,temporal aggregation and the Korean currency crisis: the role of a high frequency Korean won (KRW)–US dollar ($) exchange rate

Using a new type of 5 min high frequency dataset consisting of real time Korean won (KRW)–US dollar ($) exchange rates, this paper characterizes the volatility process of high frequency returns. The semi-parametric local Whittle estimation is applied to estimate the long memory dependency in the volatility process of the 5 min KRW–$ returns and the temporally aggregated returns data. The estimation results present that the underlying long memory dependency in the volatility process appears to be generally consistent across various temporally aggregated returns and that the exogenous shocks and the multiple breaks associated with the crisis in the market seem to induce greater long memory dependency during the crisis.     

Immigration quotas,World War I,and emigrant flows from the United States in the early 20th century

Little is known about international return migration because governments rarely track out-migrants. However, one exception occurred early in the 20th century when the United States kept records of emigrants. Using within-country changes in quota allocations in 1921, 1924, and 1929 in combination with 1908–1932 data on specific countries of intended destination of the emigrants, we estimate the effect of quotas on (1) out-migration rates, (2) emigration across skill groups, and (3) the duration of temporary migrants' stays in the U.S. Higher quota restrictions reduced emigration rates, mostly for unskilled laborers and farmers. Higher quota restrictions also increased duration of stay, as the share of migrants staying less than 5 years fell and the share staying 5 to 10 years rose. Return migration behavior was also associated with changes in previous immigrant cohort's networks and savings. Return migration rates were also low during World War I, and more significant population losses from the War in home countries discouraged return migration. Finally, out-migration of German migrants increased substantially during the 1920s.     

Farm credit and credit demand elasticities in Shaanxi and Gansu

This paper empirically estimates individual household credit demand elasticities based on 897 farm households surveyed in Shaanxi and Gansu provinces in the People's Republic of China (PRC) in October 2009. We used survey-based experimental techniques to extract individual household credit demand functions from which we estimated point demand elasticities. From a theoretical point of view, we proposed that as interest rates fell the demand for credit increased in elasticity, and this appears to hold in our data. We find a range of elasticities with mean point estimates of about ? 0.6. We find that nearly 20% of farm households have nearly perfectly inelastic demands for credit but we also find that nearly 20% have elasticities above ? 0.75 including some 15% that have elasticities greater than ? 1.0. Previous studies that have argued against credit policies because of the low inelasticity of demand do not generally hold. There is much heterogeneity in credit demand and we would argue that a full spectrum of targeted credit policies can be used to address differences across farms.     

Retail power market competition with endogenous entry decision—An auction data analysis

Deregulation in the electric power industry has been aimed at promoting competition and thereby enhancing the industry’s efficiency. We use the auction data of public power procurements to study the impact of the reform on the retail power market in Japan. We quantify this impact by measuring a decline in power charges, controlling for the endogeneity bias caused by the entrants’ bid-submission decisions. Our results suggest that power charges would decline by about 0.48 yen/kW h on average when two or more providers bid at an auction.     

On the divergence between fuel and service prices: The importance of technological change and diffusion in an American frontier economy

This paper assembles heating fuel prices for the U.S. state of Vermont, from the colonial era to the present, in order to test whether energy fuel prices and energy service prices have diverged over this time period. Prior authors have reported evidence of a significant difference between long run energy fuel prices and energy service prices. However, this is the first analysis to pose this question beginning in the context of colonial America. In accord with earlier work focused in the U.K. the paper reports a significant divergence in fuel and service prices. In this setting real heating fuel prices increased over the 220 year time period by a factor of between 15 and 20. In contrast, heating service prices increased by a factor of two. Expressed in labor units, heating service prices have fallen in Vermont by 25%, while fuel prices were essentially flat. Finally, over this two century time period in Vermont and the U.K., the rate of change in service prices expressed in labor units is remarkably similar: − 1.1% and − 0.9%, per annum, respectively.     

Fiscal limits and sovereign default risk in Japan

It is widely known that Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among OECD countries. If Japan’s national debt continues to balloon, fiscal crisis may occur in the future. This paper develops a closed economy model with defaultable government debt and conducts a simulation to investigate future sovereign debt risk.First, we estimate the fiscal limit which is defined as the sum of the discounted maximum fiscal surplus in all future periods. It is assumed that a partial default occurs when the amount of government debt exceeds the fiscal limit. We calculate the revenue-maximizing tax rate at the peak of the Laffer curve to derive the fiscal limit. As a result, the estimated average fiscal limit in Japan is much higher than that in Greece. In the Japanese economy, households are more patient and desire greater savings from greater discount factor derived from a lower real interest rate. Household saving habits support government bonds. This is the main reason why the Japanese government could have had a massive debt in addition to some room to raise the tax rate. Second, we simulate the model, using the estimated fiscal limit and non-linear computational methods. If the government debt-to-GDP ratio continues to increase for the next 20 years, the default probability will be over 10% and the sovereign risk premium will be approximately 2%. Furthermore, the default probability will reach approximately 80% and the sovereign risk premium will be 10% 30 years later.     

Welfare loss of China's air pollution: How to make personal vehicle transportation policy

Given China's notorious air pollution, particularly fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) pollution, a detailed understanding of socio-economic costs of air pollution and potential impacts of its abatement policies is crucial for policy-making if sustainable development is to be realized. To provide the first study of its kind for China, this paper builds an integrated assessment framework based on a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We find China's air pollution (PM_2.5, ozone, and coarse particles ranging from 2.5 to 10 μm) to be a staggering threat to human health, economy and residential welfare. Furthermore, there is empirical evidence for much more importance of the PM_2.5 issue. In addition, we investigate the impacts of alternative personal vehicle transportation policies. In terms of gross benefits, the results indicate that the total substitution of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) for the existing personal internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) would be more beneficial to national air quality and human health than the combination of stringent fuel economy and emission standards for ICEVs, even in the Chinese case of coal-heavy electric grids.     

Supply chain trade and technological transfer in the ASEAN + 3 region

This paper analyses how economic integration and the international division of labour have evolved among the ASEAN + 3 countries in the last 20 years. The paper proposes an indicator of the level of technological sophistication based on revealed comparative advantages and uses it to investigate the relation between technological advance, factor endowments and supply chain trade. It is shown that supply chain-trade does not facilitate technological transfer. On the contrary: FDI appears to have significant and negative spill-over effects on technological change. Positive spill-overs from FDI materialize only when host countries have sufficiently high levels of education.     

The association of life satisfaction and self-rated health with income dynamics among male employees in Japan

In this study, we analyze how life satisfaction and self-rated health are associated with income dynamics. We used data from male employees in Japan (N = 1004) drawn from a panel dataset of career wage records spanning a period of over 30 years. The income history used in this study was based on administrative records; thus, the data were almost free of recall error. Our results show that life satisfaction was more closely associated with a change in lifetime average income or maximum income than with a change in income compared to the previous year, whereas the opposite was true for self-rated health. In addition, life satisfaction tended to resist a decline in response to a fall in income from its average or maximum level, but this was not the case for self-rated health. Furthermore, an income peak experienced in the past made both life satisfaction and self-rated health more sensitive to changes in income, whereas a trough experienced in the past made them less sensitive. These findings suggest that the association of income between subjective well-being and health should be studied further, within a dynamic framework.     

High frequency perspective on jump process,long memory property and temporal aggregation: Case of $-AUD exchange rates

The high frequency 30 min $-AUD exchange rate is investigated using a parametric FIGARCH model. The FIGARCH model is found to be the preferred specification for the 30 min returns and temporally aggregated returns, with similar values of the long memory parameter across various aggregated returns. This paper employs the Bernoulli jump process and the Poisson jump process to represent conditional mean jumps in the high frequency returns and the aggregated returns. The estimation results present that the jumps are quite significant in the conditional mean process and that the long memory parameters are remarkably reduced over the aggregated returns after the jumps are accounted for.     

Housing and marital matching: A signaling perspective

This paper studies signaling behaviors in marital matching. As some of males' essential traits for marriage are hardly observable, a high-quality male is motivated to signal. This paper applies a modified Spence signaling model to the marriage market and tests the theoretical implications with survey data from rural China. We find that houses are primary signals in marriage markets in China, which explains both the high homeownership and the large housing sizes. We find 1) marriageable males are twice as much likely to build a house five years before marriage than five years after, while females do not behave the same way, 2) housing size is reflective of males' unobservable characteristics, especially in villages with high interest rates. Males with more social connections, higher income rank and greater wealth build larger houses. And 3) a ten-square-meter larger house reduces a male's probability of singlehood by 0.8% at the age of 30, and enables him to marry a wife 0.1 cm taller.     

Road pricing

Summary Under conditions of congestion, the social costs of motoring will exceed the private costs. The formula is: Social Cost=Private Cost (1+the elasticity of cost with respect to traffic flow). Thus the optimum tax under these conditions is equal to this elasticity coefficient×100 per cent of the private cost. A fluid-dynamic model, borrowed from physics, is used to develop a simple formula for the elasticity ofvelocity with respect to traffic flow. By postulating a relationship between cost and speed, this elasticity is convertedinto an estimate of the elasticity coefficient. And so one can obtain, for any specified speed, a value of this coefficient and cost; the product of these two then gives an estimate of the difference between social and private cost. In practice one cannot determine the speed independently; it emerges from the demand-supply interactions and so one must also postulate a demand function; but data problems are severe on the demand side. Lastly, some developments are considered — including network models and dynamic demand models. Lecture delivered in the Faculty of Economics of the University of Groningen, The Netherlands, on 21st May 1968. The author is Professor of Econometrics and Social Statistics at the University of Birmingham, and Advisor on Research, Graduate Centre for Management Studies.     

THE BURDEN OF HIV/AIDS IN THE PUBLIC HEALTHCARE SYSTEM

Given current lack of routine data, assessing the burden of HIV/AIDS on the public healthcare system is complex. This research aimed to collect a wide range of data that could be used to estimate this burden and the costs of meeting it. Data collection was undertaken by research doctors who were employed in a wide spectrum of facilities to compile information on patients' HIV-status, retrospective utilisation of services and unit costs of care. Key results indicated that the percentage of expenditure on HIV-related care was 26% across all facilities. HIV-positive patients had higher utilisation of services compared to other patient groups; the annual cost per patient was estimated to be R4,813 (2007/08 prices). Results should be interpreted in the light of the underlying population need and context-specific access barriers.     

Child labour and academic achievement: Evidence from Gansu Province in China

This paper considers the relationship between child labour and a child's academic achievement in rural China. Using a unique longitudinal, multi-level survey, the Gansu Survey of Children and Families (GSCF) which was enrolled in the Gansu province, I use a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) and find that more than 1 h of child labour in the previous time period has a negative effect on a child's academic achievement in the subsequent period after controlling for child talent. I also show that previous academic achievement has no strong significant effect on current child labour by applying a logistic model. Based on the data, the fact that those effects are not very big or not significant suggests that child labour in China is not a big problem when compared with other developing countries (Bacolod & Ranjan 2008).     

Stock repurchases in Japan: A solution to excessive corporate saving?

Since the 1990 s profitable Japanese companies have faced lower domestic growth opportunities; they have invested less, yet most have not increased their payout. This has resulted in a substantial deleveraging of their balance sheets. The popular term for this phenomenon is “corporate saving.” Corporate saving by Japanese companies is now at the highest level in history. Dividends and stock repurchases are two potential ways to resolve excessive corporate saving. Stock repurchases in particular offer a fast, flexible and very public method to solve the problem of excessive corporate savings. This research is an investigation of stock repurchases by Japanese companies from 2000 to 2009. Companies repurchase their stock to return excess cash to investors, resolve governance issues, adjust capital structure and send signals. This paper uses accounting and stock market information to explain this behavior. Contrary to recent research on American firms, we find that replacement of dividends does not appear to explain stock repurchase behavior in Japan. We find evidence that repurchase behavior in Japan is linked to excessive corporate savings. However, repurchases are also closely linked to the ownership structure of the firm. Firms whose dominant owners are other members of the firm's industrial group are less likely to repurchase. Bank ownership has mixed implications for repurchases. Firms having foreign and individual ownership are more likely to repurchase stock. Foreign and individual ownership appears to improve governance and thus may be a partial solution to excessive corporate savings.     

The Enigmas of TFP in China: A meta-analysis

This paper presents a meta-analysis of 5308 observations of total factor productivity growth (TFPG) in China from 150 primary studies to provide some insightful explanations to the controversies about productivity growth in China in the current literature. The main findings include that (1) the mean TFPG of the aggregate economy at the national level in the current literature is only about 2% after 1978, which barely contributes to 20% economic growth; (2) there are three cycles for TFPG after 1978 and each circle lasts about 10 years; (3) sector-specific TFPGs are generally larger than aggregate economic TFPGs; (4) regional disparities of TFPG are significant and specifically the TFPG in East China is higher than that in Central and West China; (5) TFPG after 1978 is in general greater than that before 1978; and (6) peer-review process and paper languages are significantly correlated with TFPG results.