Monetary policy and dynamic efficiency in economies of overlapping generations

In an economy of overlapping generations, money, distinct from debt, provides liquidity and is dominated as a store of value. Nominal rates of interest that are low, but do not vanish, eliminate equilibrium allocations far from Pareto optimal allocations.     

现期人民币汇率应适度贬值

近期以来,美国以我国保持较长时期的国际收支顺差为由,强烈要求人民币汇率(RMB/^,下同)升值。笔者认为,人民币汇率升值只会使得投机者加剧对人民币汇率的升值预期,形成人民币汇率的不稳定性投机。长期保持人民币汇率稳定,不能刺激用来防范汇率风险的金融工具和相关的金融市场     

Market reaction on convertible bonds offering： An agency cost of free cash flow perspective

By investigating ＂announcement effects＂ of 48 CBS and 439 pure equity offering in Chinese A-share listed companies, this paper finds that, in general, convertible bonds issue announcement may elicit a negative stock price response, firms with convertible bonds issue announcement experience significantly higher mean of abnormal returns than firms with equity issue announcement, and the fallen stock price is positively related to offering size, and negatively related to debt/asset ratio. Further, we find those firms with less undistributed cash flow and more growth opportunity experience significantly higher price response than firms with more undistributed cash flow and less growth opportunity. The empirical evidence consists with the predictions of the agency costs of free cash flow theory.     

影子银行对货币政策的影响——基于内生货币理论视角

影子银行的迅速发展使其成为我国金融体系的重要组成部分,由于其具有一些与传统银行类似的功能,继而对我国货币政策调控的有效性提出了挑战;后凯恩斯货币理论认为货币本质上属于一种债权-债务关系,是非中性的交易媒介,而央行是否能够有效的控制货币供应量呢?本文基于内生货币理论的视角,重新诠释影子银行对我国货币政策的影响,以期对货币政策的制定提供有益借鉴。     

Debt rescheduling and the choice between bonds and loans for LDCs' foreign debt

This paper examines less developed country (LDC) borrowers' choice of financing methods. I devleop and test the hypothesis that ex-ante consideration of rescheduling affects LDC borrowers' choice between bonds and commercial loans. Banks can monitor and distinguish between permanent and temporary shocks, while bondholders cannot. Therefore, debt rescheduling based on the nature of economic shocks is feasible with loan financing. Our empirical findings indicate the debt rescheduling is considered exante in LDC lending. In addition, default risk and contract size affect the choice of financing instruments.     

对中国“米德冲突”的思考

20世纪90年代以来我国出现两次比较明显的“米德冲突”。第一次出现在1992--1996年,第二次明显地出现在2007年。两次米德冲突均是以“国内通货膨胀＋国际收支顺差”的形式出现,只是第二次的冲突比较强烈。理论上讲,我国解决米德冲突的最佳方案是实行浮动汇率制度。但从现实来看,我国目前对外经济的失衡是多种因素导致的。如国内消费的相对不足、奖出限入的外贸政策以及对外资的优惠政策等等。因此,仅仅依靠人民币汇率制度改革还不能有效地解决米德冲突难题,需要多管齐下、综合治理,才能更好地实现内外均衡。     

Has the Chinese currency been undervalued?

China's trade surplus reached a record $102 billion in 2005 while the US trade deficit of $717 billion accounted for 5.8% of US Gross Domestic Product in the same year. US policy makers claim China's currency is undervalued about 25 to 35% against the US dollar and they blame China for holding the value of the RMB weak to keep Chinese products competitive on prices in international markets. Given the unique situation in China, where the capital account is only partially convertible and the economy has been growing at an annual average rate of 10% over the last two decades, this paper empirically examines the magnitude of the exchange rate misalignment of China's RMB against the US dollar by using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) models. Our results show that the RMB was undervalued by approximately 15% from 2002:Q2 to 2003:Q4; however, it is interesting to note that while the RMB was overvalued during 1997:Q4–2002:Q2, China experienced a huge trade surplus during that period.     

中国国际收支“双顺差”研究与思索

中国国际收支已经多年处于经常账户和资本账户的"双顺差"下,这是由我国对内对外的经济和国际贸易政策所决定的。"双顺差"在给我国带来了源源不断的外汇的同时也给我国的经济增长带来压力.反映出当前我国经济政策改革调整的必要性,产业结构调整和解决民生问题的迫切性。     

均衡汇率理论研究综述

本文主要对西方均衡汇率理论进行梳理,简略介绍了几类理论模型。它们分别从不同角度对均衡汇率问题进行了研究。     

The Importance of the Exchange Rate Regime in Limiting Misalignment

This paper explores how the choice of a country’s exchange rate regime may affect exchange rate misalignment for developing and developed countries. A measure of misalignment is obtained by using a panel cointegration vector estimator. This paper finds that for developing countries, an intermediate exchange rate regime (a regime falling somewhere between a pure float and a hard peg) is most effective in preventing exchange rate misalignment. Additionally, the choice of an exchange rate regime as a means to limit misalignment matters for developing countries, but does not seem to matter for developed countries.     

基于超调模型和虚拟经济视角的汇率动态分析

汇率决定及其动态调整分析是汇率理论的研究内核。文章以汇率超调模型为基础,突出虚拟经济与实体经济双轮驱动及其与宏观经济总供给和总需求关联运行的作用机理,结合非线性宏观金融理论在货币供需分析中引入可交易金融资产,尝试构建新的分析框架。在虚拟经济与实体经济视角下分析美元名义汇率的动态变化,并以此为基础进行实证研究,考察美元汇率及经济失调。     

人民币汇率变动通过物价对我国经济稳定性的影响

随着人民币汇率浮动幅度的扩大,汇率变动对国内物价水平的影响程度日益引起人们的关注。本文对我国物价和经济现状进行了简述,阐述了汇率变化对物价水平的影响渠道,最后分析了人民币汇率升值通过国内物价对经济稳定性所产生的影响。     

我国发行高等教育债券的几点思考

随着我国高等学校规模的不断扩大,仅靠现有财政拨款和银行信贷资金为主的融资方式显然是不足的。一方面,过于单一的融资渠道不足以补充教育经费的投入不足且风险过高。另一方面,金融体系的功能无非是在资金的富裕方和资金的短缺方之间提供中介功能。由于不同资金的供给方和需求方的风险偏好存在差异,因而就决定了融资的渠道也应当是多元化的。事实上,通过金融体系实现高等学校的融资需求绝不止银行信贷资金一个内容。如果能够开辟各类新型的教育融资方式,无疑对高校获得资金和分散风险具有帮助。文章旨在从研究发行高等教育债券融资方式的意义入手,进一步提出完善我国现有高等教育债券融资方式．以期对实现高等教育经费来源多元化提供一定的参考。     

Transformations of the state variable and learning dynamics

This article examines dynamics in a model where agents forecast a one dimensional state variable through ordinary least squares regressions on the lagged values of the state variable. We study the stability properties of alternative transformations of the state variable, such as taking logarithms, which the agent can endogenously set forth. Surprisingly, for the considered class of economies, we found that the transformations that an econometrician would attempt are destabilizing, whereas alternative transformations, which an econometrician would never consider, such as convex transformations, are stabilizing. Therefore, we ironically find that in our set‐up, an active agent who is concerned about learning the economy’s dynamics and who in an attempt to improve forecasting transforms the state variable using standard transformations, is more likely to deviate from the steady state than a passive agent.     

强化人力资源开发管理 促进企业蓬勃快速发展——对铜陵市三佳电子(集团)有限公司的调查

网络经济给各行各业带来了巨大的变化和冲击 ,本文从规模经济、交易成本等理论出发探讨了网络经济下企业规模问题 ,论证了中小企业在网络经济下有更坚实的生存基础和竞争优势     

经济均衡视角的人民币利率与汇率联动关系

利率与汇率作为宏观经济调控的重要变量,理论上它们之间存在正反馈的联动关系。通过格兰杰因果关系检验与VEC模型发现,人民币利率与人民币汇率之间存在双向因果关系,但通过脉冲响应模型与方差分解分析发现,长期的联动效应要大于短期的联动效应,人民币利率对汇率的影响要大于人民币汇率对利率的影响。     

人民币汇率升值与资产价格泡沫的传导机制和实证研究

文章旨在研究具有资本流动和较低金融市场组织程度的开放经济体中,如果产生某些外部冲击而使得汇率升值,便会产生资产价格泡沫。在传导机制的理论模型推导中,以凯恩斯宏观经济模型为基础,通过模型推导得出实际汇率升值使得均衡收益率上升,股票资产需求迅速增加,进而导致股票价格的快速上涨,形成泡沫。然后通过对人民币汇率升值和上证A股股指变化进行实证研究,并考虑金融危机的影响因素,结果支持了文章的理论分析。