发展经济学人口流动模式比较与中国实践

农村劳动力转移和流动始终是发展经济学关注的一个重要且复杂的问题。刘易斯的二元结构模型、拉尼斯-费景汉的推拉模型和托达罗的预期收入模型等,都从宏观角度阐述了劳动力从农业部门转出的基本原因。文章从发展经济学人口流动模式的理论基础出发,结合我国当前农村人口流动的现状,探究了影响农村人口流动的制度因素,提出要加速农村人口流动应加大农村人力资本投资、加强工业化和城市化发展以及制度创新等。     

中国农村流出人口的决定因素分析

托达罗人口流动模式是西方经济学界著名的人口流动模型之一。它是建立在对“刘易斯——费景汉——拉尼斯人口流动模式”批判基础上的人口流动模型，比较符合发展中国家的实际情况。对我国的启示是：在农业和农村内部转移、利用剩余劳动力；发展小城镇就近转移农村剩余劳动力；开拓国际劳务市场转移农村剩余劳动力。     

环球纵横

美国经济重心和人口重心向西北移动美国人口和企业正从曾经是繁荣和富裕象征的东部、中西部和西南部向太平洋沿岸西北部的俄勒冈州和华盛顿州流动,其原因是昔日的商业中心种族间矛盾激化,贫富差距扩大,居任环境恶化,城市中心地区日趋贫困。西北部吸引力加大的主要原因是较早向亚洲开放,种族偏见较少,地价和工资也不高。尖端技术的创业者也转向西北部,目前在西北部建立基地     

地区发展差距拉动: 我国人口流动的成因分析

我国在二十世纪八十年代以后人口流动迅速增长。流动的主体是农民，流动的主要方向是从农村到城市，范围和数量都是空前的。就整体而言，出现这种状况的原因有两个方面，即一般原因和特殊原因：由于通常人口流动增长都会出现的普遍原因和由于我国特定的情况而形成的个别原因。研究人口流动的迅速增长，需要从宏观和微观两个方面寻找成因。从宏观角度看，人口流动是经济发展与经济结构调整的必然要求。农村对剩余劳动力的“排斥力”和城镇对劳动力的“吸引力”是人口流动的基本条件，而政策则起着类似闸门的控制作用。从微观角度来看，每项流动行为的产生，关键取决于该主体对流动收益和成本的权衡。与世界诸国人口流动状况不同的一点是，我国人口流动还有着其特殊的历史和时代背景。     

中国农村劳动力的跨省流动的实证分析

相对于省内流动来说，跨省流动可被视为一种更持久、成本更高的人口流动。在人口的重新分配和缩小地区发展不平衡等方面，农村劳动力的跨省流动比省内流动作用更为明显。本文利用最近的农村流动劳动力调查数据，运用Logit模型对包括农村流动劳动力的个人特征、家庭特征以及所在地特征等在内的影响中国农村劳动力跨省流动的因素进行考察。     

东北人口的流动转变(1995-2005)——基于不同学历人口的比较

通过对东北地区人口流动状况分析,发现2000年前后东北人口流动发生了明显转变,非高学历人口与高学历人口流动存在明显差异,在流入地分布、流动规模、流动距离、流动模式等多个方面都有体现.整体来看,东北人口流失是分梯度的,人口流失状况从北到南有所缓解.东北人口流失问题,不在于其流出人口规模较大,而关键在于其流入人口长期处于较低水平,东北地区的人才流失状况要早于人口流失,并且更为严重.未来东北地区的人口发展依然面临持续流失的严峻挑战,应该以理性的眼光看待东北人口流失问题.     

江西省人口流动与城市发展的关系研究

随着经济发展方式的转变和人口红利的逐渐消失,人口流动对经济发展的影响越来越受到学者们的关注。文章以江西省11个地级市为分析对象,利用"五普"和"六普"的数据,运用地理信息系统(GIS)的空间制图功能、spss软件的相关分析功能以及灰色关联分析模型,对江西省人口流动与城市发展之间的关系进行研究,最后针对江西如何充分利用人口流动促进城市发展提出几点建议。     

建立农村人口流动的新机制

农业人口流动,是传统农业向现代农业转换过程中生产力重新布局的必然结果,也是农村经济和社会共同进步的客观动力和内在要求。十年来,我国农业人口主要表现为暂时性流动、长期性流动和永久性流动三种基本流动形式。农业人口流动为农村注入了新的活力,改造了封闭的农村经济与社会,这是无可非议的事实。但是,由于急于求成的经济战略和政策的偏向引导与刺激,农业人口也出现了违背规律和现实要求的无序流动,从而给农村发展带来了一些新的制约。诸如农业人口大量流动削弱了农村发展的基础——农业;造成农村“人才倒挂”;由于流向单     

试论农村劳动力的有序流动

随着工业化和城市化的推进，农村向城市的人口流动与迁移是一种必然趋势，而农村人口的流动首先是农村劳动力的流动。在农村劳动力的流动中，只有政府、市场、企业和农村劳动者共同作用，才能实现流动的有序性。     

我国的工业化与农村人口流动

王业化是农村人口流动的根本原因，工业化决定农村人口流动的特点、速度、规模。因此我们应该从工业化进程的角度认识我国的农村人口流动．认识政府在各个时期制定的农村人口流动政策及婪变动．我国建国以来的农村人口流动与工业化进程基本上是相适应的。我国已进入工业化中期阶段，可以预见今后一个时期．农村人口流动的规模会更大．速度会更快．政府应当翱定与之相适应构政策，以促使其健康发展。     

Gravity Models of Interregional Migration in Indonesia

This article explores the determinants of interregional migration in Indonesia. Employing basic and modified (extended) gravity models, and using data from the 2000 and 2010 Population Censuses and the 2005 Intercensal Population Survey, we test Long’s (1985) hypothesis that in the early stages of population redistribution, economic development is positively related to a concentration of the population. Using per-capita GDP as a proxy for income and as an indicator of economic development, we find that migration in Indonesia is indeed directed towards more developed regions. This finding supports the notion that regional disparities in development are an important factor in interregional migration in Indonesia. In line with classical gravity models, our findings show that distance is negatively related to the size of migration flows. However, unlike previous studies of interprovincial migration in Indonesia, we find that the effect of distance has weakened over time.     

Comparative demographic effects of Canadian-U.S. immigration flows

"A joint study by Statistics Canada and the U.S. Bureau of the Census examines special tabulations of U.S. residents born in Canada from the 1980 census of the United States and compares them with matching tabulations of Canadian residents born in the United States from the 1981 census of Canada. As might be expected, the two populations are remarkably similar and the preponderance of the migration flow is from Canada to the United States. The comparative social and economic characteristics of the two migrant stocks show the effects of increasing legal restrictions on migration between the two countries in the last two decades. The characteristics of the migrant flows have changed from large, unregulated population movements responding to economic motivations similar to internal migration flows to a much smaller, highly controlled movement more typical of long-distance international migration flows." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1987 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

Economic freedom and migration: A metro area-level analysis

We examine the determinants of intra-U.S. population migration at the metropolitan area level (MSA), with an emphasis on the presence of policies that are consistent with economic freedom. We are the first to produce a multivariate regression analysis of migration and economic freedom at the local level. Combining a 1993–2014 unbalanced panel of MSA-to-MSA migration data from the Internal Revenue Service with a new economic freedom index for U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that a 10% increase in economic freedom of a destination MSA, relative to the economic freedom of an origin MSA, was associated with a 27.4% increase in net migration from the origin MSA to the destination MSA. If we use mean net migration flows as a benchmark, we would expect a 10% increase in relative economic freedom to increase net migration to the destination MSA by 22 workers per year from each other MSA.     

Rural-to-urban migration in China

"One consequence of economic reform in China has been the greatly accelerated migration of labour from rural areas to cities. Estimates suggest an annual migrant labour flow of around 50-60 million people, of whom 10-15 million have settled permanently in cities. This article surveys the information that has become available from a number of population and labour surveys. It covers the volume, spatial and temporal dimension of rural-to-urban migration, the characteristics of migrant labourers, the determinants of migration and the impact of migration on China's rural and urban economy."     

The Long‐Term Consequences of Cultural Distance on Migration: Historical Evidence from China

This paper uses a unique dataset of long‐run migration in China to provide new measures of cultural distance based on biological evidence. We utilise this information to examine the effect of cultural distance on migration in China from the Song Dynasty until the twentieth century. Our findings show that culture has strong effects on migration between regions when controlling for other socio‐economic and geographical factors. Population flow is greater where there are fewer cultural differences. This finding not only provides quantitative empirical evidence on linking cultural distance and migration but also leads to a better understanding of the mechanisms resulting in migration for much of China's history.     

近20年重庆市老龄化格局的时空演变与驱动因素研究

为减轻人口老龄化进程加快对重庆市经济社会持续稳定发展产生的影响。基于最新的第七次人口普查数据及历年统计年鉴数据，应用空间自相关、地理探测器等研究方法，分析20年来重庆市人口老龄化的时序演变特征、空间演变特征及其驱动因素。人口老龄化进程不断加深。2000-2020年人口老龄化系数由8.84%增长至17.08%，逐步向深度老龄化社会迈进。重庆市老龄化格局与经济发展水平呈现倒“U”形关系。老龄化的高值区由主城区向东北部演进，20年以来老龄化空间集聚特征增强，但集聚趋势逐渐放缓。老龄化现象由人口因素与社会经济因素共同作用形成。主要驱动因素由医疗服务水平转变为人口惯性及人口出生率，各影响因素间交互作用显著。     

人口迁移对区域经济增长地区差异的影响分析——以陕西省为例

人口的大规模迁移流动是改革开放后我国经济社会发展的主要特征之一,其流动态势与区域之间的经济差距逐渐扩大趋势相耦合。文章以我国西部地区人口迁移与经济增长之间的关系为研究对象,以陕西省为例,分析迁移对省内各地级市的经济地区差距的影响。通过运用泰尔指数以及灰色关联度分析等方法,证明了迁移流动人口与区域经济发展具有极高的关联度。建立的人口迁移与经济增长之间计量模型的结果显示：1991—2004年期间劳动力流动有助于缩小地区间经济差距,使区域经济呈现出速度大于3％的条件收敛。并且人口迁移要素对经济增长的贡献显著,资本投入对经济增长也具有强大的推动作用。     

新疆区域内人口迁移现状及效果评价

人口迁移对区域经济和社会发展将产生重要影响,需要统筹考虑。本文根据第六次全国人口普查新疆数据,以新疆南疆、北疆和东疆地区为研究单元,从迁移数量、性别、年龄、受教育水平、职业、迁移流向和迁移原因等七个方面分析了新疆区域内人口迁移的现状,即区域内迁移人口呈现“北多南少”的态势、净迁移人口中女性人口多于男性人口、中青年人口是新疆区域内迁移人口的主体、迁移人口教育水平呈现“北高南低”的态势等,同时认为务工经商和随迁家属是区域内人口迁移的主要原因;最后对新疆区域内人口迁移的效果进行了评价。     

在改革中发展的中国老龄产业

人口老龄化是经济发展和社会进步的必然结果,是世界人口发展的普遍规律。进入21世纪,我国开始步入人口老龄化时代。发展老龄产业已成为我国社会经济发展的必然要求。老龄产业在我国的兴起和发展反映了我国改革开放的辉煌成就。     

East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends

Countries throughout the world are experiencing changes in their population age structure, but they are particularly rapid in East Asia. During the last part of the 20th Century the region benefited from an increased concentration of population in the working ages. Population aging is now the increasing rapidly with potentially adverse economic effects. The evidence presented here shows that population aging can lead to a second demographic dividend because population aging may lead to rapid capital accumulation. This appears to have occurred in East Asia because public support systems for the elderly are smaller and because family support systems are in decline.