金融体系制度性顺周期机制：理论与实证分析

内生于金融体系的顺周期属性会显著放大经济“繁荣-萧条周期”并导致金融不稳定,是20世纪70年代以来全球范围内金融危机频发的重要启示之一。与传统文献关注金融体系“自身行为顺周期效应”不同,本文聚集于“制度性顺周期效应”,从资本监管、贷款损失拨备制度以及公允价值会计准则等三个典型事例切入,对金融体系的制度性顺周期机制进行系统阐述。结果表明,根植于金融部门与实体经济中间的制度性正反馈机制与经济波动程度存在较强的相关性,是导致金融不稳定的重要原因。     

UNCERTAINTY AND THE POSITIVE THEORY OF THE PUBLIC ENTERPRISE*

This paper extends the analysis of Rees (1984a) of a public enterprise pursuing a size-related objective in the face of uncertain demand to a situation where its managers may be risk neutral or risk averse and where the public enterprise may produce more than one output. The optimal pricing policy of the public enterprise is analysed and the importance of not only the expected profit constraint but also the attitude to risk of the public enterprise in determining its relative prices is demonstrated.     

体制激励、支出结构与公共风险

近年来,公共风险丛生引发了全社会的广泛关注,公共风险丛生的主要原因是公共品供给的相对短缺,而分权型财政体制变迁形成的激励机制则是公共品供给相对短缺的体制根源。虽然自21世纪初,中央采取了一系列自上而下的公共利益补救措施,但这只是缓解了问题的严重程度,而要从根本上化解公共风险,必须重塑财政体制的激励结构。     

THE THEORY OF PUBLIC ENTERPRISE RECONSIDERED

A comparison of the essential characteristics of public and private enterprise against the background of agency theory shows that archetypal public enterprise is not an enterprise in the generally accepted legal and economic senses of that expression. If it is to be efficient, therefore, archetypal public enterprise must not be left dependent upon governance and monitoring systems appropriate to private enterprise but must, by means of an intimate and cooperative (and not an ‘arm's length') relationship between the principal (government) and the agent (management), be provided with precisely defined and quantified objectives that lead to an agreed measure of overall performance. The essay's conclusions are important because, inter alia, they shift the efficiency debate from property to governance.     

公共选择视角下的集体行动效率及其制度含义

开展集体行动不仅要考量其合法性,也要考量集体行动的效率。从经典的激励机制设计和社会选择理论中得不出能实现集体行动效率的现实可行途径。公共选择理论认为,集体行动效率的制度含义是达成对集体行动的一致同意,这种一致同意是可以在对集体行动的讨论过程中形成的。     

国际金融形势分析与展望

2002年全球金融板块呈现调整特征:一是国际股票市场全线大跌,但其他市场却有不同程度的“好”行情;二是股票、风险投资等直接融资受挫,银行信贷等间接融资重拾风光;三是美元强货币走跌,欧元等弱货币走强;四是美国等强势金融体遭困,东南亚等弱势金融体逞强。与此相对应,中国的对外金融呈现一派繁荣景象,以开放促改革的局面初步形成。