我国货币政策中介目标选择的实证分析——基于引入创新因素的扩展普尔模型分析

文章在普尔基本模型和引入金融创新的扩展普尔模型的基础上,对我国货币政策中介目标选择进行了实证分析。普尔基本模型实证结果表明1996-2009年中央银行应选择货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标。而引入金融创新的扩展普尔模型实证结果得出了截然相反的结论,认为1996-2009年我国应选择利率作为货币政策中介目标,特别是在2003年以后,利率作为中介目标的优势更趋明显。总之,在金融创新和利率市场化改革的推动下,货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的优势在逐渐下降,我国货币政策中介目标应逐步由货币供应量向利率过渡。     

我国实施通货膨胀目标制的可行性研究

货币政策中介目标的选择是货币政策能否发挥作用的关键.货币供应量、利率及汇率等指标都不再适合做我国货币政策的中介目标,通货膨胀率必然成为可行的选择.通货膨胀目标制的货币政策框架短期内在我国不可行,而在长期内具有可行性.     

我国货币政策中介目标的两难选择

目前,我国单一的以货币供应量或利率作为中介目标并不适宜,构建以广义货币供应量为主、利率为辅和适当监控信贷总量的复合中介目标体系将是我国目前的现实选择。     

我国货币政策中介目标的两难选择

目前,我国单一的以货币供应量或利率作为中介目标并不适宜,构建以广义货币供应量为主、利率为辅和适当监控信贷总量的复合中介目标体系将是我国目前的现实选择。     

通货膨胀目标制的理论思考--论我国货币政策中介目标的重新界定

随着经济与金融的不断发展，货币供应量与通货膨胀率等最终目标的相关性以及货币供应量自身的可控性和可测性也受到越来越多的干扰。为此，自1990年代起，一些国家相继改弦更张，把货币政策目标由货币供应量转为通货膨胀率，由此形成所谓的通货膨胀目标制。本文运用模型分析，在封闭经济的假设基础上分别讨论了严格通货膨胀目标制和灵活通货膨胀目标制。针对我国目前的货币供应量目标缺乏有效性状况，本文认为可以借鉴通货膨胀目标制对我国货币政策中介目标进行重新界定。     

中国货币政策中介目标与经济增长

货币政策中介目标是货币政策体系中的重要组成部分,合适的货币中介目标对保持国民经济持续稳定增长具有重要意义。采用基于ARDL模型的协整分析方法,对货币中介目标与中国国民经济增长的关系进行了深入研究,发现通货膨胀率对国民收入的影响幅度最大、货币供应量对国民收入的影响次之,而利率对国民收入的影响相对较小。认为在目前条件下,我国应从过于强调货币供应量指标,转向综合利用多种金融变量来指导货币政策的操作,但在将来市场体系完善后,可考虑采用通货膨胀作为货币政策中介目标。     

法定准备金制度的变迁与金融调控

法定准备发挥作用的前提是中央银行以货币供应量作为货币政策的中介目标,但货币供应量和经济增长及通货膨胀的关系并不确定。利率取代货币供应量成为中介目标,法定准备金存在的基础即被削弱,随着央行宏观金融调控方式的转变,中国法定准备金制度的改革势在必行。     

对我国货币政策中介目标的研究

货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标虽仍具备合理性,却面临一系列困难和障碍;同时,由于利率形成机制并不完善,利率暂时不能作为货币政策中介目标.目前我国应将货币供应量作为货币政策直接中介目标,而以利率作为辅助中介目标,发挥利率在货币政策体系中应有的作用.     

论当前我国货币政策中介目标转型的策略

我国货币供应量中介目标在当前基本上还是有效的，但其有效性在逐步下降，对于这一点学界基本上已达成共识。而利率和汇率又不具备充当主要中介目标的条件，在这种情况下，当前还应该以货币供应量作为主要的中介目标，但也要做好放弃传统的货币供应量中介目标和中介目标转型的准备。在目前继续实施以货币供应量为主要中介目标的货币政策框架中，怎样提高它的有效性呢？在货币政策中介目标转型的过程中应该采取什么措施？     

中国货币政策中介目标选择的实证研究

通过采用单位根检验、协整检验以及格兰杰因果检验的方法,对货币供应量和利率同经济增长的关系进行研究,进而对我国现行货币政策中介目标选择的合理性进行分析.实证结果表明,货币供应量与货币政策最终目标之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,而利率与最终目标之间并无显著影响,从而说明我国目前以货币供应量作为中介目标是合理的,而利率尚不具备可选择性.     

The Taylor rules and macroeconomic fluctuation in China: 1994–2006

The correlation and controllability of money supply as the intermediate object of monetary policy is gradually weakening, the argument that interest rate substitutes the money supply for the alternative object is hotly discussed. According to the Taylor rule and its extensions, this paper has a positive analysis on the efficiency of Taylor-type rules in China through historical analysis, policy reaction function approach and co-integration technology of time series analysis. This paper draws a conclusion that Taylor rule is unstable in China, and less correlation can be found between interest rate and the output gap, and the central bank focus on the inflation target rather than economic growth. Therefore, the central bank should abide by the simple rule of inflation targeting.     

我国M1货币政策中介目标的 一个合理选择

本文定义了货币M1的一个新增长率,以其值作为与实际经济增长率相适应的中介目标值;定义了货币M1的一个超额增长率,以其负值作为与通货膨胀率相适应的中介目标值;在此基础上,重新确定M1货币增长率的值作为中介目标值。实证表明在中国这样确定的货币政策中介目标值与经济增长和通货膨胀最终目标一致。     

货币供给量作为货币政策中介目标适应性研究

文章围绕货币政策中介目标的可测性、可控性和相关性特征,系统地对货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性进行模型分析和数据检验。研究结果表明:货币供给的内生性增强,货币供给的可控性降低;短期货币需求和货币流通速度不稳定,货币供给的可测性较差。但是,货币供给量与GDP和物价之间的相关性较好。     

股票价格、实体经济与货币政策研究——基于我国1997-2011年的经验证据

本文运用格兰杰因果关系检验和向量自回归方法分析了1997年1月至2011年6月我国股票价格、GDP、通货膨胀率和货币政策的关系,实证结果表明,在中国,股票价格对通货膨胀的效应为正向,即股市上涨能带动通货膨胀水平的上涨。股票市场对GDP的影响短期内主要表现为替代效应,长期来看,则是财富效应和投资效应占主导;同时,货币供应量和利率对股票价格均有影响,但影响均不显著。通过格兰杰因果关系检验发现,利率变动导致货币供应量和股票价格发生变化。而货币供应量的变化影响着通货膨胀,也一定程度影响利率和股票价格。通过广义脉冲响应发现,中国人民银行紧缩性的利率政策并不能抑制股票价格上涨。增加货币供给短期内能够推动股市上涨,但长期对股市仍没有效果。     

Monetary Disequilibrium, Endogenous Money, Stability and the Determinacy of Inflation

This paper examines the stability of the disequilibrium money model, with endogenous money and transitory interest rate control by the Central Bank. In the tradition of the post-Keynesian literature, the money supply is determined by bank lending and disequilibrium between money demand and supply determines the business cycle. The rate of interest is assumed to react to an inflation target and inflation responds to the business cycle. The paper examines the stability of the model under three inflation response systems: the accelerationist model, adaptive expectations and rational expectations.
(J.E.L.: E3, E4, E5).     

基于VECM的治理通胀与经济发展协调性研究

笔者基于VECM模型对利率、汇率、货币供给、经济增长与通货膨胀之间的关系进行研究,发现它们之间存在协整关系,利率、汇率、货币供给增长率与通货膨胀具有双向影响关系,而经济增长率单向影响通货膨胀,利率不是经济增长率的格兰杰因,汇率、货币供应量增长率与经济增长率之间都不存在格兰杰因果关系,五个变量互相之间的作用都有较长滞后效应。通过深化改革、完善市场机制、转变经济增长方式可以保增长防通胀。     

Fiscal Policy,Monetary Policy and the Mechanics of Modern Clearing and Settlement Systems

Thomas Palley, Eric Tymoigne and Randall Wray recently debated neo-Chartalism in this journal. This article argues that the mechanics of modern clearing and settlement systems is important to understanding this debate. In the neo-Chartalist framework taxes and bond issuance function as part of monetary policy; it is an alternative method for draining reserves to obtain the overnight target rate. Abba Lerner’s Chartalist framework is much clearer on public finance, noting that the federal government can use alternative financing methods to pay for expenditures. Palley’s concerns with central bank ‘money financing’ and inflation are unpersuasive. The Old Keynesian ‘budget restraint– high-powered money relation’ offers limited insight into modern clearing and settlement systems. The article concludes that policymakers should embrace Lerner’s advice and view ‘money printing’ as a normal policy instrument to support functional finance.     

US monetary policy shocks and the Chinese economy: a GVAR approach

Using a global vector auto regressive (GVAR) methodology, this article examines the impact of US monetary policy shocks on China’s major macroeconomic indicators. Our analysis reveals that a positive shock to the US money supply growth rate initially increases China’s inflation rate but after some time this effect completely disappears. This shock also raises China’s short-term interest rate and the Chinese currency appreciates against the US dollar. A positive shock to the US short-term interest rate increases China’s short-term interest rate but the real output growth and inflation rates decline and the Chinese currency appreciates.     

The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China

A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model is adopted to estimate three time‐varying factors of yield curves, the level, the slope and the curvature, and a vector autoregressive model is built to study interactions between macro variables and the yield curve. Results show that, first, money supply growth is a more effective instrument to curb inflation than the monetary policy interest rate; however, the central bank also adjusts the interest rate to stabilize money supply. Second, investment is an important measure to stimulate the Chinese economy, but it also pushes up money supply growth, which results in higher inflation. Third, the yield curve reacts significantly to innovations to investment growth and money supply growth. The segmentation of China's bond market hinders the efficient implementation of monetary policy, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism is still weak in China. Finally, interactions between the yield curve and the macroeconomy in China are nearly unidirectional. Macroeconomic variables reshape the yield curve, but direct adjustments of the yield curve do not significantly change macroeconomic variables. Due to the incomplete liberalization of financial markets, there exists a wide disjunction between the real economy and financial markets in China.