Currency Invoicing in International Trade: an Empirical Investigation

The authors investigate the choice of currency of invoicing in international trade under exchange rate fluctuations. Predictions derived from a model developed by Donnenfeld and Zilcha in 1991, and others, regarding the optimal choice of currency of invoice are tested for imports into Canada. The authors employ a unique dataset from Customs Canada that covers a six-year period and lists all currencies used for invoicing by industry. The empirical results support the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between the extent of invoicing in the importer's national currency and exchange rate risk, and a negative relationship between invoicing in the exporter's currency as well as invoicing in a third currency and exchange rate risk. The empirical results further indicate that relative size of a country plays a role in determining the currency of invoicing.     

寡头垄断的国际货币体系与人民币国际化战略选择

世纪之初的国际货币竞争已步入寡头垄断时代.针对目前美元、欧元形成的双寡头的国际货币体系存在的问题,文章指出,寡头垄断的对称的三元国际货币格局是21世纪国际货币体系的理想选择.亚洲作为世界经济的三大中心之一,其货币应在对称的三元货币体系中有所作为.文章指出人民币要顺应寡头垄断的国际货币体系发展的内在趋势,抓住机遇,未雨绸缪,有层次、分阶段地推动人民币的国际化.     

亚元:区域性货币合作制度新选择

欧元与美元“二元化”的国际货币体系,使中国在2003年获得9.1%的经济增长率,意大利仍然凭借欧元地位,以0.3%的经济增长速度使其世界排名从第七位超越中国再次跃居第六位,这使亚洲各国更加明确,加强本地区货币合作将改变目前亚洲在国际竞争中所处的不利境地。要使亚洲经济不再作为大国货币的附属品,必须改变现存不公平的国际货币制度,加强地区间金融协调与合作,创立一个稳定的亚洲统一货币才能稳定亚洲金融市场,促进亚洲经济健康发展。在当前形势下分析现存国际货币制度缺陷及现状,讨论亚洲货币合作标准及亚元制度建设进程显得十分重要。     

不确定环境下非对称竞争供应链的纵向结构选择

构建了不确定环境下非对称竞争供应链模型,考察了两条供应链在纵向中心化、分散化及混合化结构下的绩效,分析了供应链纵向结构的动态演化过程及其均衡结果,识别了潜在市场份额、需求风险、零售商预测能力等对供应链纵向结构选择的影响。结果表明:相比制造商,供应链系统的纵向结构选择并不依赖于需求风险和零售商的预测能力;当市场份额较大时,无论是制造商还是供应链系统,绩效改进的中心化结构的稳健性得到增强。     

货币错配:理论分析、实证检验与中国的抉择

货币错配是发展中国家在金融全球化过程中所普遍面临的问题,中国目前也存在货币错配现象,因此要通过政策的制定和市场的深化来控制货币错配的风险,目前推动人民币国际化、加强外汇储备管理及相关措施是解决上述问题的关键.     

通货价值的非确定性变动与汇率的经济学分析

全文共分四个部分--回顾日元对美元的汇率变动过程;介绍经济学家关于汇率决定的理论;人们对汇价的期待与外汇市场的不确定性.     

市场不确定性下的电影保底发行模式抉择机制探究

随着近年来不断增大的社交网络影响,电影市场中影片发行方式开始显现出其规避风险的特性.基于市场不确定性所带来的收益风险,在保底发行模式下考虑了一个电影制片方及一个影片发行方的多阶段博弈模型.研究发现,相较于传统的分账发行模式而言,保底发行模式牺牲了制片方的部分期望收益,但能够有效降低其市场风险.部分市场风险通过保底发行模式被转嫁给发行方,但同时,该模式为发行方带来更高的期望收益.此外,市场不确定性的提高会打击制片方的运营信心并使其降低前期努力投入,但是会促使发行方增加其努力投入以提高影片的最终票房.     

Prices Versus Quantities: Technology Choice,Uncertainty and Welfare

Technological improvements have proven essential in mitigating environmental problems such as climate change, depletion of the ozone layer and acid rain. While it is well-known that price- and quantity-based regulatory instruments provide different investment levels, the effects on the choice between different technologies have received scant attention. This paper expands on the prices versus quantities literature by investigating firms’ technology choice in the face of demand and supply side uncertainty. I show that the regulator can not design tradable emissions permits and an emissions tax such that the two regimes are equivalent, even in terms of expected values. Moreover, a tax encourages the most flexible abatement technology if and only if stochastic costs and the equilibrium permit price have sufficiently strong positive covariance, compared with the variance in consumer demand for the good produced. Finally, the firms’ technology choices are socially optimal under tradable emissions permits, but not under an emissions tax.     

Frontrunners and Laggards: The Strategy of Environmental Regulation under Uncertainty

The extant literature on the political economy of environmental regulation does not provide a unified theoretical explanation for three salient stylized facts. First, companies voluntarily invest to reduce the environmental burden that they cause under threat of regulation. Second, ex ante estimates of the compliance cost tend to be systematically higher than ex post estimates. Finally, regulators use limited information provided by the industry. I construct a game-theoretic model of environmental regulation under uncertainty with a benevolent regulator. In equilibrium, companies undertake voluntary action to induce regulation that raises barriers to entry. This profit-driven behavior is not always socially detrimental, however, as the regulator obtains a credible commitment to production and a more accurate estimate of the compliance cost. Additionally, the results provide a selection explanation for the mismatch between ex ante and ex post cost estimates: if companies condition compliance on the installation cost, only low-cost companies install in equilibrium. The analysis combines “regulatory capture” with social welfare maximization to explain the curious combination of voluntary action and low ex post compliance cost without serious information collection by the regulator.     

Endogenous Choice of Trade Instrument Under Uncertainty *

This Paper endogenizes the choice between import tariffs and quotas of two policy active countries in a duopsonistic world market. Without uncertainty, import quotas are welfare superior to import tariffs in equilibrium. If two importers can precommit to a type of instrument before deciding the level of the instrument to use in a future period, an import quota equilibrium emerges. We introduce asymmetric risk in the import demand schedule of the two importers. There exists a range of parameters in which a mixed equilibrium emerges, i.e. one country uses a tariff while the other restricts trade with an import quota. The likelihood that both importers choose a different trade instrument in equilibrium is increasing with the correlation coefficient of the two random shocks. [F13]     

外币报表折算方法选择的多维分析

外币报表折算是财务会计面临的三大难题之一,焦点主要集中在时态法与现行汇率法的方法选择上。本文从外币报表折算的理论基础-汇率决定理论,折算的逻辑过程和折算方法选择的经济后果等方面对时态法和现行汇率法进行比较,指出时态法是适合中国目前会计环境的外币报表折算方法。     

The Private Provision of Public Goods under Uncertainty: A Symmetric-Equilibrium Approach

Various studies have examined whether increased uncertainty about the non‐Nash response of others to an individual's voluntary contribution to a public good affects that individual's contribution so as to mitigate the free‐rider problem. We extend this single‐agent approach to the analysis of a symmetric equilibrium. We provide conditions on group size and endogenous relative risk aversion that imply increased equilibrium contributions in response to greater uncertainty about the productivity of each individual's contribution to the actual level of the public good. These results enable us to broaden the circumstances in which the theory predicts that increased uncertainty reduces free riding.     

不息的争论:发展中国家钉住汇率制的实践与困境

一、发展中国家实行钉住汇率制的实践汇率制度是一国(地区)对外经济关系及其政策的分支,是外向型经济发展的主要驱动器之一。根据美国前总统肯尼迪的国际经济顾问罗伯特·赫勒提出的“经济论”,汇率制度的选择必须考虑本国的经济发展战略、经济开放程度、经济规模、进出口贸易的商品结构和地区分布、国内金融市场的发达程度以及国内外通货膨胀率的差异等一系列经济因素。发展中国家选择钉住汇率制正是基于对以上因素的考虑。首先,自本世纪70年代开始,一些发展中国家和地区,特别是东南亚国家和地区开始了引进外国直接投资,发展劳动密集型产品…     

约束下的选择:从小城镇化到小城市化——对苏南城市化演进的经济学分析

城市化的演进形式是受一系列社会、经济、制度条件约束的。特定地区的社会群体在约束条件下追求收益或效用最大化的行为,形成该地区独特的城市化演进形式。在城市化初期的约束条件下,苏南社会群体选择小城镇化为城市化主流形式是经济合理的,当约束条件发生变化后,选择就将重新作出。因此,现阶段苏南选择小城市化作为城市化的主流形式具有必然性。     

The Identification of Preferences from Equilibrium Prices under Uncertainty

The competitive equilibrium correspondence, which associates equilibrium prices of commodities and assets with allocations of endowments, identifies the preferences and beliefs of individuals under uncertainty; this is the case even if the asset market is incomplete. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D52, D80.     

Signaling about Norms: Socialization under Strategic Uncertainty

We consider a signaling model in which adults possess information about the dominant social norm. Children want to conform to whatever norm is dominant but, lacking accurate information, take the observed behavior of their parents as representative. We show that this causes a signaling distortion in adult behavior, even in the absence of conflicts of interest. Parents adopt attitudes that encourage their children to behave in a socially safe way (i.e., the way that would be optimal under maximum uncertainty about the prevailing social norm). We discuss applications to sexual attitudes, collective reputation, and trust.     

后现代语境下的中国现代化路径选择

后现代是西方现代性理想破灭之后,兴起的一种反理性诉求,是对现代性的超越。后现代对中国现代化将产生积极的意义：因为它重新阐释了人的主体性;使理性更加开放;更加注重社会的和谐发展。科学发展观正是后现代语境下中国现代化路径选择的依据。     

SOE Reform under Oligopolistic Market Structure: The Optimal Choice of State Shares

This paper examines the effect of the change of state shares in a state-owned enterprise (SOE) on the efficiency of the whole society and the payoff of the government. This issue is addressed by setting up a mixed oligopolistic competition model and dividing the analysis into two cases: closed economy and open economy. The basic results are as follows: If the relative production efficiency of an SOE is too low, complete state ownership is not optimal, and privatization will be a necessary step; however, if the relative production efficiency of an SOE is not too low, complete privatization is not optimal both for the government and from the perspective of social welfare. The results can, to a certain extent, provide theoretical support to the governments idea on the SOE reform. Translated from Economic Research Journal, 2004, 1 (in Chinese)     

The Comparison of ad Valorem and Specific Taxation under Uncertainty

The comparison between specific (per unit) and ad valorem (percentage) taxation has been one of the oldest issues in public finance. In Cournot markets, with deterministic costs structures, conventional wisdom has it that ad valorem taxation tax‐revenue dominates specific. It is shown that in the presence of uncertainty, regarding firms’ cost structures, and under reasonable conditions, the conventional wisdom might not hold. The implication of this, from a policy perspective, is that the precise evaluation of the two types of taxation requires an explicit consideration of cost uncertainty.