Een model voor discreet verdeelde grootheden met negatieve correlatie

Summary
A model for negatively correlated variables.
A mathematical model is described with which a bivariate distribution of two negatively correlated binomially distributed variables can be constructed. Let be given a vase with W white, Z black and R red balls; N = W + Z + R; P1= W: N;P2 = Z: N.
Let be drawn a random sample with replacement of n balls. Let be w = number of white en z = number of black balls; w + z < n. Then and are binomially distributed variates, correlated according to (1).
At the end of the paper the author formulates the following statistical problem: let be drawn a finite number of times () such random samples of n balls. The pairs w, z furnish a correlation coefficient r, which itself is a stochastical variable. How is the distribution of? In particular what are the expectation (, N) and the standard deviation (k, n, N)     

Een Monte-Carlo-bepaling van overschrijdingskansen, in verband met een keuzetest

A Monte-Carlo method for a test of significance, applied to points on a lattice, in connection with a vocational preference test, by C. A. G, Nass.
Appendix by Constance van Eeden.
A periodical rectangular lattice, with a period of k.m, is considered. Thus there are N = k.m points on the lattice, repeated in the two perpendicular directions. Two points are said to be "connected" if they are adjacent in a straight or diagonal way. Thus, if k and m 3, every point is connected with 8 other pooints. Out of the N points of the lattice, n points are selected and the total number of connections x, of all possible pairs of those n points is considered for a vocational preference test with k = m = 9, N = 81, n = 10. The problem is to test whether the sum y = x₁+…+ x*** from a sample of h values of x, is significantly small, under the hypothesis that in the h cases the n points are selected at random with equal chance. A Monte-Carlo sample of 100 values of x was taken, using random numbers. For h = 1, the problem was solved by the determination of P( y x₁), assuming that y is taken at random from the 101 values of x, supplied by the Monte-Carlo sample and x₁ for fixed values of x₁. For h - 2, a similar solution is given. For greater values of h, Student's two-sample test, with correction for continuity is suggested. For h = 2 the results of Student's test are compared with those of the solution mentioned above.
In the appendix a summary is given of results found by P.A.P Moran and P. V. Krishna Iyer for some closely related problems. Further some results concerning exact distributions, moments and asymptotic distributions for C. A. G. Nass' problem are given. The proofs of these results may be found in a paper by C. van Eeden and A. R. Bloemena (1959).     

Een indelingsprobleem

Summary  A branch and bound algorithm is given to solve the following problem: To each pair of elements (i,j) from a set X ={l,…, n } a number r _ij with r _ij≥ 0, r _ij= r _ij and r _ij= 0 has been assigned. Find a prescribed number of disjoint subsets P ₁…, P _m from X , such that

Experiments indicate that an optimal solution is usually found in a small number of iterations, but the verification may be rather time consuming.
The algorithm may be used to find the minimum value of m for which a partitioning of X with z = 0 exists. The algorithm appears to be efficient for finding this 'chromatic number of a graph'.     

Een smaak-onderzoek

A comparison has been made between three designs for flavor testing. In the test-situation even a flavor-difference which might be noticed by only a few people was of practical importance. In addition not only the unjustified rejection of the null hypothesis (no flavor-difference), but also the unjustifed rejection of the alternative hypothesis might have important practical consequences.     

Een indelingsprobleem

Summary A branch and bound algorithm is given to solve the following problem: To each pair of elements (i,j) from a set X={l,…, n} a number r_ij with r_ij≥ 0, r_ij=r_ij and r_ij= 0 has been assigned. Find a prescribed number of disjoint subsets P₁…,P_m from X, such that Experiments indicate that an optimal solution is usually found in a small number of iterations, but the verification may be rather time consuming. The algorithm may be used to find the minimum value of m for which a partitioning of X with z= 0 exists. The algorithm appears to be efficient for finding this ‘chromatic number of a graph’.     

Het probleem van de ruïnering der spelers

The gambler's ruin.
When a single trial has two possible outcomes A and B, with probabilities p and q( p +q= 1), a succession of these trials forms a so-called Bernoulli chain. The well-known result for the probability of n times A and m times B is
In this article we consider the ruin problem, in which the initial capitals of the gamblers are a and b, respectively. In stead of a Bernoulli chain we then have a Markoff chain, with coefficients that are less simple than the ordinary binomial coefficients.
A more general expression (formula 1) is obtained for the probability distribution of the gambler's profit after a certain number of games, provided none of them became ruined beforehand. The probability for ruin after a certain number of games is a special case, similar to the results of Lagrange, Laplace and others, but appears in a form, more suitable for numerical calculations.
Some other results, obtained through the same method as developed in this paper are indicated.     

Een lading van kraaltjes

Summary An urn containing 200 red beads and 1000 yellow ones is frequently used for demonstration of the hypergeometric or binomial distribution. Experiments show that the practical frequency distribution differs slightly but definitely from the theoretical one. This deviation turned out to be caused by electro-static forces.     

De statistische kwaliteitscontrôle als economisch probleem (I)

Summary  (Statistical quality control as an economic problem I).
A discussion is given about the application of 100 inspection and inspection by sampling. The choice between these two methods has to be based upon economic principles.     

Een systeem van kostenbeheersende productieplanning

In this paper a system of cost-controlled production planning is described. This system considers all kinds of costs associated with a production in phases (e.g. production of units, production of subassemblies, assembly) which may be affected by the planning, such as set-up costs, costs of transport, control, inventories, capacity and changes in capacity.
The mathematical model leads to a linear or mixed discrete-linear programming problem whose solution gives for each time period considered the size of the capacities which should be used and of the series of different products which should be produced. Practical recommendations are given for obtaining a sufficiently satisfying solution.     

Een algemene methode tot leemtevulling

An exposition of the missing plot technique often applied in analysis of variance is given in very general terms.
Non-orthogonality mostly implies heavy computations. If the scheme of observations is almost orthogonal this technique, however, supplies in a simple way unbiassed and efficient estimates of the expectation values which occur in a linear hypothesis underlying an analysis of variance. Moreover the correct residual sum of squares required for a test or a confidence interval estimation is obtained without difficulty.
A correct test of an effect or an interaction will be provided by two estimates, the first under the null-hypothesis, the second under the alternative hypothesis. In the case of non-orthogonality this may imply two separate applications of the discussed technique. The difference between the two residual sums of squares will be used for the numerator of a valid F-criterion.
The technique is illustrated by an example.     

Een berekeningsmethode voor de logistische curve

Summary “Simple estimation of the parameters of the logistic curve.” By means of an appropriate transformation of the dependent variable Y_t into a simple function of Y_t, which depends only linearly on time, one of the parameters can be estimated in the usual way. A second transformation leads to the estimation of the two remaining parameters. As a numerical illustration two examples are presented.     

Enige ervaringen met kursussen in de OR met behulp van management games

Samenvatting Binnen Akzo is veel ervaring opgedaan met speciaal voor dit doel ontwikkelde managementgames in OR-cursussen. Het blijkt dat deze van grote waarde zijn zowel om de motivatie te verhogen als om het inzicht te verdiepen in de toepassingsmogelijkheden van OR in de praktijk.
In dit artikel worden een tweetal cursussen beschreven en de plaats hierin van de games. Een aantal praktische ervaringen worden genoemd.
De cursussen die hier beschreven zijn bereiken door de grote motivatie van de cursisten en de vrijere wijze van doceren veel beter hun doel dan meer technische cursussen. Het instrument van het management game draagt hier zeer wezenlijk toe bij.     

Een berekeningsmethode voor de logistische curve

Summary  " Simple estimation of the parameters of the logistic curve ."
By means of an appropriate transformation of the dependent variable Y _t into a simple function of Y _t, which depends only linearly on time, one of the parameters can be estimated in the usual way. A second transformation leads to the estimation of the two remaining parameters. As a numerical illustration two examples are presented.     

Een mathematisch model voor een reserveringsprobleem

A mathematical model for a booking problem
Air companies have several problems in connection with booking. Clients may book for a certain flight some time in advance and are also allowed to cancel their bookings.
As a result of this it is possible that an airplane leaves with some places empty or that the company, expecting some clients to cancel their booking, has sold to many places.
In both cases losses are the result. In this paper a booking policy that minimizes the expected losses is developed.