Estimating models of complex FDI: Are there third-country effects?

The recent general equilibrium theory of trade and multinationals emphasizes the importance of third countries and the complex integration strategies of multinationals. Little has been done to test this theory empirically. This paper attempts to rectify this situation by considering not only bilateral determinants, but also spatially weighted third-country determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI). Since the dependency among host markets is particularly related to multinationals’ trade between them, we use trade costs (distances) as spatial weights. Using panel data on U.S. industries and host countries observed over the 1989–1999 period, we estimate a “complex FDI” version of the knowledge-capital model of U.S. outward FDI by various recently developed spatial panel data generalized moments (GM) estimators. We find that third-country effects are significant, lending support to the existence of various modes of complex FDI.     

The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis

The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. trade with the world or on U.S. trade with major partners has been assessed by many researchers, but none have considered the case of U.S. trade with African nations. We fill this gap by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric impact of the real bilateral exchange rate volatility between the U.S. dollar and each African partner’s currency on the U.S. trade flows with each of the 20 partners from Africa. We found asymmetric short-run effects of exchange rate volatility on almost all U.S. exports to and imports from each of the 20 countries. In addition, significant long-run asymmetric effects were discovered in the case of U.S. exports to 15 countries and U.S. imports from 12 countries. Our findings are partner-specific.     

The J-curve dynamics of U.S. bilateral trade

Three earlier studies examined the impact of dollar depreciation on bilateral trade between the United States and her six largest trading partners. They used different methodologies that resulted in different outcomes. In this paper we consider 18 major trading partners of the United States and employ a relatively new method to investigate the short-run as well as the long-run response of the bilateral trade balance to currency depreciation. While as with previous research we are unable to discover any J-curve pattern in the short run, in the long run real depreciation of the dollar has favorable effects on the U.S. trade balance in most cases. Valuable comments of an anonymous referee are greatly appreciated. Any remaining errors, however, are the authors'.     

Asymmetric volatility spillovers between international economic policy uncertainty and the U.S. stock market

This paper studies the asymmetric spillover effect of important economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the S&P500 index. We use monthly EPU indexes from Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. and the realized volatility of the U.S. stock market to study the asymmetric pairwise directional spillovers on the U.S. stock market from 2000 to 2019. We find that S&P500 index volatility is a net recipient of spillovers from important EPU indexes. Japanese EPU has the strongest spillover effect on the U.S. stock markets, while EPU from the U.K. plays a very limited role. By decomposing the volatility into good and bad volatility, we find that the relationship between bad stock market volatility and EPU is stronger than between good volatility and EPU. Time-varying spillover characteristics show that bad volatility reacts more strongly to shocks in EPU following the debt crisis and trade negotiations. Several robustness checks are provided to verify the novelty of these findings.     

U.S. Strategic Trade Policy and the Competitiveness of the U.S. Construction Industry in Developing Country Markets

SUMMARY

U.S. government trade policy increasingly reflects “strategic trade” beliefs that, because competition in markets is imperfect, governments can act strategically to affect trade flows and enhance national welfare. The U.S. National Export Strategy targets the infrastructure sector in twelve developing countries as a strategic opportunity for U.S. construction firms. This paper examines whether U.S. government export promotion initiatives effectively implement strategic trade policy by providing appropriate support to these firms in that target market. It concludes that, within limits, they do.     

Exchange rate volatility and Spanish-American commodity trade flows

A number of recent studies have tested the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, particularly for individual commodities, for various country pairs. These have found that risk can increase as well as decrease trade, but that oftentimes industries are not affected. This study examines trade between the United States and Spain over the period from 1962 to 2009, for 131 U.S. export industries and 88 import industries. We find that exchange rate volatility has short-run and long-run effects in only a fraction of the cases, but that exports respond more to increased uncertainty than imports do. In all, only 35 of the 74 U.S. export industries are affected (11 positive, 24 negative), whilst only three out of 37 import industries have positive coefficients and 11 have negative ones. We find no evidence that durable or nondurable goods are more likely to respond to volatility, whilst small industries or specialized goods might show more of a positive response.     

WTO陷阱十年?

开放之后,改革不力,致使中国产业空有创新战略而成果寥寥,大批企业长期被锁定在国际分工的低端环节上,难以跃升中国已落入了‘坏的贸易'陷阱,1993年以来特别是加入WTO后,我们深陷‘进口高端产品并出口低端产品'和‘出口实物产品换取美元纸片'的‘环的贸易'之中,这是一条通向贫困和依附型经济的道路。中国人民大学经济学院一位教授愤怒地说,为了保护民族产业和国内市场,我们应不惜以退出WTO为筹码对世贸条约重新进行谈判,并考虑退出WTO的战略问题。尽管是学者一家之言,但也让那些为入世申请和谈判忙碌了十年甚至几十年的人感到悲凉。表面看,入世后中国出现的巨额贸易顺差和国际分工的低端锁定,引发了当下让中国政府挠头的汇率问题、以及所谓的环的贸易陷阱,而更深层次上,更多人关注的,是以WTO多边框架为主体的国际     

U.S.-German commodity trade and the J-curve: New evidence from asymmetry analysis

Since the introduction of the nonlinear ARDL approach and asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling, old relations are receiving renewed attention, and the link between the trade balance and the exchange rate is no exception. We add to this new literature by using industry-level data from 59 2-digit industries that trade between the U.S. and Germany. We find that when the old approach of the linear model was used, the real dollar-euro rate had short-run effects in 17 industries that lasted into the long run in 26 industries. However, when the nonlinear model was estimated, we found short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in 49 industries, which lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 28 industries. The J-curve effect was supported in a total of 18 industries.     

The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation

A bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Australia and the United States came into effect on 1st January 2005. Since the U.S. is one of the main trading partners for Australia, it was anticipated that the FTA would bring a substantial increase in Australia's bilateral trade with the United States. It would also have important implications for Australia's other main trading partners such as Japan, and China. This paper seeks to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the FTA by undertaking simulations using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. By simulating the GTAP multi-country CGE model, the paper evaluates various economy-wide effects, sectoral level effects, and trade diversion and trade creation effects in the two countries in response to bilateral free trade. It will also identify the effects on trading partners outside the FTA. The results will provide a preliminary indication of the magnitude of welfare gains involved.     

The demand for imports and exports in the U.S.: A survey

One of the more important issues in applied international economics is the extent to which trade flows adjust to changes in income, relative prices, and exchange rates. In this paper, the literature on the empirical estimation of the demand for imports and exports for the U.S. is surveyed. More precisely, this paper updates earlier surveys by Stern, Francis, and Schumacher (1976) and Goldstein and Khan (1985).     

International trade and the U.S. wage structure

Politicians are concerned about the effects of increased foreign trade on U.S. workers. Data from 1978 to 1987 are used to appraise the impact of foreign trade on U.S. manufacturing wages. The results indicate that wages are positively associated with a sector’s level of international comparative advantage. However, this follows from other characteristics aside from the net trade balance. These characteristics may include rent sharing or international technological convergence. Imports and exports also influence wages, where this impact varies with the industry’s unionization. Regardless, the results suggest that greater trade is not a major cause of the decline in U.S. real wages.     

Economic uncertainty,oil prices,hedging and U.S. stock returns of the airline industry

This paper examines the impacts of economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks on stock returns of U.S. airlines using both industry and firm-level data. Our empirical approach considers a structural vector-autoregressive model with variables recognized to be important for airline returns including jet fuel price volatility. Empirical results confirm that oil price increase, economic uncertainty and jet fuel price volatility have significantly adverse effect on real stock returns of airlines both at industry and at firm level. In addition, we also find that hedging future fuel purchase has statistically positive impact on the smaller airlines. Our results suggest policy implications for practitioners, managers of airline industry and commodity investors.     

中国与印度贸易摩擦的原因及对策分析

随着中印双边贸易发展迅速,中国已成为印度的第二大贸易伙伴,印度也已成为中国在南亚地区最大的贸易伙伴。但印度对华贸易保护呈现愈演愈烈之势。在WTO成员国中,印度是金融危机以来对我国发起贸易救济案件最多的国家,两国间的贸易摩擦问题已不容忽视。本文通过对总贸易额、进出口商品构成、反倾销的比例等数据的比较,从宏观、政策和产业三个角度,分析了中印贸易摩擦存在的原因,并从政府、行业协会和进出口商会、企业的角度,制定出应对中印贸易摩擦的对策建议。     

我国贸易失衡的结构特征、形成机制及政策启示

本文对我国贸易失衡的结构特征和原因进行了研究,并讨论了相应的政策启示.研究发现,近年来我国贸易顺差占GDP比重与其他新兴经济体相比并不大,但对欧美的贸易顺差以及对日、韩的贸易逆差的绝对规模处于上升趋势;从地区层面看,贸易失衡主要由贸易规模最大的几个省份引起;加工贸易占比越高的行业,贸易顺差规模越大.本文的政策启示如下:...     

中国对日本废弃物进口贸易现状与对策建议

通过对1999-2010年12年间中国与日本的废弃物贸易数据等的分析,发现中国是日本废弃物出口的最大对象国,也是美国废弃物出口的高增长市场。通过理论和现实层面的分析,得出中国废弃物处理的边际社会成本低、再生资源需求大、日本出口废弃物获益高等因素是日本等发达国家向中国出口废弃物的主要动因的结论。鉴于中国已经成为废弃物进口大国,面临巨大环境风险的实际情况,提出了中国加强进口废弃物全产业链与环境管理的对策建议。     

China‐commodity nexus at the heart of global upturn

• ? The China‐commodity nexus has been at the heart of the global upturn in trade and industry. It could directly and indirectly account for as much as 70% of the recovery since mid‐2016, based on our analysis. We think this nexus will continue to support world growth in the near term, but the global upturn is vulnerable to moderating Chinese growth and slippage in commodity prices.
• ? China has directly accounted for around a third of the upturn in world trade, similar to the contribution of G7 countries. But adding in indirect effects, China's influence is likely to have been much more significant. Stronger Chinese demand has contributed to an improvement in the trade performance of its Asian trading partners, commodity exporters and other advanced economies.
• ? Using a model simulation that introduces positive shocks to imports in “greater China” and to commodity prices (based on the scale we have seen since mid‐2016), our top‐end estimate for China's contribution to the upturn in world trade is around 70%.
• ? The simulation points to especially strong improvements in output and exports for economies such as South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and some commodity exporters. This broadly matches the pattern of performance seen over recent months, though commodity exporters' performance has been quite mixed.
• ? G7 investment growth is likely to have played only a modest role in the recent global upturn. But Japan is an exception, while upgrades to investment forecasts for South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have also been large.
• ? A 1% rise in commodity prices could raise commodity exporters' investment by 0.3–0.6%, based on our analysis. As a result, there could be additional improvement in commodity exporters' investment this year, supporting world growth. However, with our forecasts suggesting that commodity prices are set to slip further over the coming quarters, this boost could prove short‐lived.

     

Spatial and sectoral characteristics of China’s international and interregional virtual water flows – based on multi-regional input–output model

This paper provides a systematic analysis of spatial and sectoral characteristics and changes in virtual water flows associated with China’s interregional and international trade based on the China interregional input–output tables of 2002 and 2007. The results show significant improvement in water use efficiency between 2002 and 2007. However, the general spatial patterns and sectoral components of virtual water flows have more or less remained during the period. Almost all Chinese provinces are net exporters of virtual water in international trade. In interregional trade, the dominant direction of virtual water flow is from peripheral provinces to eastern coastal provinces. The agricultural sector plays an important role in shaping this direction and has significant impacts on water uses in exporting provinces, some of which are water scarce. The results of this study clarify some confusions concerning mismatches between regional water endowments and virtual water trade within China and with other countries.     

浅析金融危机中我国国际贸易应对措施

2008年注定是一个不平凡的一年。一场全球性的金融危机席卷而来,对美国乃至中国都产生了巨大影响。美国30年代的经济危机仍历历再目,由于美国国会突然通过高额关税法案实施贸易保护主义,使国际贸易总额急剧收缩,使30年代的美国经济危机更加严重。我国应该吸取30年代的教训,采取有效的措施来应对这场危机。     

The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S.

Several studies in the literature have tried to assess the impact of real depreciation of the Canadian dollar on the Canadian trade balance. They have either relied on the trade data between Canada and the rest of the world or between Canada and her major trading partners. In this paper we consider the trade between Canada and her major trading partner, the U.S. However, unlike previous research, we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity. We use export and import data over the period 1962–2004 from 152 commodities and the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling and show that real depreciation of the Canadian dollar has short-run effects on the trade balance of two-thirds of the industries. However, only in 50% of the industries, the short-run effects translate into the long-run favorable effects.

企业开拓农村市场的基本策略

受美国金融危机的影响,我国对外贸易额大大缩水,实体经济发展受到严重阻碍,要求我国企业把业务重心转移到内需上,而农村市场是一个有着巨大需求潜力的内需市场。文章通过对农村市场的特征和农民消费动机与行为进行分析,提出企业开拓农村市场的基本策略。