A Jump/Diffusion Consumption-Based Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Equity Premium Puzzle

This paper derives the equilibrium excess returns on risky assets in an exchange economy where the underlying exogenous uncertainty is a combination of a pure multidimensional jump process and a diffusion model. We derive closed-form solutions for the interest rate and the risk premiums on risky assets for a traditional class of separable utility indices. Our analysis demonstrates that when the underlying jumps of the aggregate consumption process are not negligible, then the traditional form of the consumption-based capital asset princing model need not hold and the asset risk premiums may be larger than predicted by the traditional CCAPM in continuous time, based on pure Itô diffusion processes. Our analysis suggests an explanation for the large estimates of the risk premiums reported in empirical tests of the single-beta CCAPM.     

Money,saving and growth in an international economy with perfect capital mobility

The effects of differential national saving rates on current accounts, foreign indebtedness and the welfare of the countries involved are examined within the framework of a two-country, three-asset and one-good model of growth with international capital mobility. It is argued that the persistent current account imbalance and its implied national indebtedness are a natural consequence of differential national saving rates in the world of integrated capital markets, that any direct interference hampering an orderly flow of capital makes both countries worse off, that changes in the exchange rate mainly reflect the differential growth rates of two currencies and have little effect on the current account, and that persistent current account deficits do not necessarily imply an ever-increasing debt burden. While an increase in the saving rate of the high-saving country benefits the low-saving country, an increase in the saving rate of the low-saving country harms the high-saving country both in the short run and the long run.     

Habit formation and the present-value model of the current account: Yet another suspect

In a recent paper, Gruber (Gruber, J.W., 2004. A present value test of habits and the current account. Journal of Monetary Economics 51, 1495-1507) claims that habit formation in consumption plays an important role in current account fluctuations in selected developed countries, extending the present-value model of the current account (PVM) with consumption habits. In this paper, however, I show that the habit-forming PVM is observationally equivalent to the PVM augmented with persistent transitory consumption, which is induced by world real interest rate shocks. Based on a small open-economy real business cycle (SOE-RBC) model endowed with consumption habits as well as persistent world real interest rate shocks, this paper resolves the inherent identification problem of the habit-forming PVM by Bayesian methods to seek effects of habit formation on current account fluctuations in typical small open economies, Canada and the United Kingdom. Results reveal no clear evidence that habit formation plays a crucial role in current account fluctuations.     

我国省际劳动、资本、消费有效税率的估算与比较

国际上衡量实际税收负担的一般方法为平均有效税率,采用这一国际通行方法,核算了1998－2012年我国各省级劳动、资本收入以及消费支出的平均有效税率,以反映这三种要素的真实负担情况,并将它与世界其它国家进行了比较研究。结果表明：各省劳动收入有效税率则呈上升态势,资本有效税率呈先下降再上升趋势,消费有效税率呈现不规则上升趋势;资本收入有效税率大大高于劳动收入和消费支出的有效税率;各省劳动和消费的有效税率还处于世界平均偏下水平,而资本有效税率处于世界平均偏上水平;地区比较来看,东部地区的劳动、资本、消费有效税率最大,西部次之,中部最低。表明西部地区的税负水平偏高,应该探索能够降低西部地区税负的有效途径,均衡地区之间的税收负担。     

Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link — the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or Backus–Smith puzzle — has prompted research on risk-sharing indicators with incomplete asset markets. That research generally implies that the association holds in forecasts, rather than realizations. Using professional forecasts for 28 countries for 1990–2010 we find no such association, whether for floating nominal exchange rate regimes, fixed exchange rates, or common currencies, thus deepening the puzzle.     

EMU and Labour Market Reform: Needs,Incentives and Realisations

Despite improving labour market conditions in recent years, a number of EMU countries still suffer from high and persistent unemployment. It could therefore be expected that labour market reform would be given a prominent position on the political agenda. The new constraints associated with the common monetary policy only increase the pressure for reform. Relying on the introduction of the single currency as a trigger for labour market reform may be a risky strategy. EMU generates a complex set of re‐optimising strategies of the players on the labour market, which makes it difficult to get a clear idea what impact it will have on labour market reform. Evaluation of recent reform measures does not make one confident either. The empirical analysis confirms to some extent the idea that countries with higher unemployment rates have carried out more labour market reform. This finding holds, however, only for countries that do not belong to EMU. EMU countries have on average carried out no more reform than countries outside EMU and any link between the initial unemployment level and the labour market reform indicators seems to lack. It may become apparent that more reform is needed once the macroeconomic environment becomes more unfavourable.     

Changing consumption patterns in rural Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Despite rapid urbanization, more than 75% of the people still live in rural areas. The density of the rural population is also one of the highest in the world. Being a poor and low‐income country, however, Bangladesh's main challenge is to eradicate poverty by increasing equitable income. The gross domestic product of Bangladesh is growing steadily, and the country has outperformed many low‐income countries in terms of several social indicators. Bangladesh has achieved the Millennium Development Goal of eliminating gender disparity in primary and secondary school enrolment. A sharp decline in child and infant mortality rates, increased per capita income, and improved food security have placed Bangladesh on the track to achieving the status of a middle‐income country in the near future. All these developments have influenced the consumption patterns of the country. This study explored the consumption scenario of rural Bangladesh. Data were collected through direct observations and semi‐structured interviews. Information regarding the consumption of food, clothing, housing, education and medical facilities were collected, and qualitative methods were applied to the data analysis. The findings of this study suggested that the consumption patterns of rural Bangladeshis are changing over time along with economic and social development.     

The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime

It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect.     

Trade with developing countries and employment in the European Community

The opposition to a liberal stance on imports of manufactures from developing countries is growing as certain specific groups of products made in these countries prove increasingly competitive and the industrialized countries suffer from persistent high unemployment. Model computations for the six most important EC countries reveal however that the imports from developing countries have only a small impact on employment in these economies seen as a whole.     

Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?

I analyse whether countries with flexible exchange rates are able to pursue an independent monetary policy, as suggested by traditional theory. I use data for three Latin American countries with flexible exchange rates, inflation targeting and capital mobility – Chile, Colombia and Mexico – to investigate the extent to which Federal Reserve actions are translated into local central banks' policy rates. The results indicate that there is significant ‘policy contagion’ and that these countries tend to ‘import’ Fed policies. The degree of monetary policy independence is lower than what traditional models suggest.     

Leapfrogging to Sustainable Consumption? An Explorative Survey of Consumption Habits and Orientations in Southern Brazil

In current political and scientific debates on sustainable consumption, the low- and middle-income classes of emerging countries are gaining attention. One common feature of such debates is the idea that these emerging consumer classes could be motivated to “leapfrog” directly to environmentally and socially aware consumption patterns and, thereby, avoid adopting the resource-intensive consumption styles of populations in industrialized countries. To be able to adapt sustainable product development or sustainable communication strategies to the needs of low- and medium-income classes, it is necessary to know more about the basic consumption orientations, current consumption habits, and future consumption aspirations of these societal groups. In order to contribute towards filling that knowledge gap, an exploratory survey was conducted, taking the example of emerging low- and middle-income classes in a Southern Brazilian city. The survey identified five different consumer types: the Home-Centered Traditionals, the Indifferent, the Up-to-date Privileged, the Wanna-be Materialists, and the Quality of Life-Oriented Postmaterialists. The paper outlines some ideas concerning how these types can be addressed with target-group-specific products and services as well as differentiated sustainability communication strategies. We conclude, however, that “leapfrogging” of Brazilian low- and middle-income classes towards sustainable consumption is not a very likely option. There are certain consumption orientations that sustainability strategies can link to, but these trends are not likely to compensate the general tendencies towards a resource-intensive lifestyle following the model of the industrialized countries.     

Eating Sustainably? Practices and Background Factors of Ecological Food Consumption in Four Nordic Countries

This article examines sustainable food consumption in the Nordic context, studying to what extent people in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden have food consumption patterns that are in the current discourse promoted as sustainability enhancing. The article analyses the association of sustainable food consumption to attitudinal support for environmental policy measures, interest in cooking, and healthy eating practices as well as sociodemographic background factors. The comparison of four countries enables an analysis of the importance of the national context in sustainable food consumption. The study is based on data from a 2012 Nordic Web survey (N?=?8248). The results show that carrying out sustainable activities was not very widespread. Buying local food was the most popular, eating meat less often the most unpopular sustainable activity. The level of participation in sustainable practices varied across the four countries. Swedish respondents were the overall most active, Norwegians the least. However, results from analysis of variance (anova) indicated that the individual explanatory factors of sustainable food consumption were relatively similar in the four countries. Healthy eating patterns, interest in cooking, and supporting environmental policy measures were all positively correlated to sustainable food consumption. Women and the elderly were more active in sustainable practices than were men and the young. Education and occupational position played a role, too, but their effect was not totally systematic across countries. The findings suggest that sustainable food consumption is not a strongly socially stratified phenomenon, but it is related to other practices of eating regarded as “proper,” such as interest in cooking and healthy eating. Broader and more inclusive policies are needed to better engage people in sustainable activities.     

The Global Economic Crisis and The Effect of Immigrant Workers on Native‐born Employment in Europe

The debate regarding the economic effects of employing immigrants has attracted renewed interest in European countries since the economic crisis. We provide an approximation of the labour market effects of immigrant workers in four European countries during the global economic crisis after briefly analysing native and foreign‐born worker conditions for the most recent period. Our analysis focuses on the correlation between the stock of immigrant workers and the number of native labour market workers across several segments of the labour market using a simple model approach. Using Eurostat and LFS (Labour Force Survey) data, we estimate a structural dynamic model using the generalised method of moments (GMM) to examine adjustment dynamics in the labour market and labour market segment and worker educational levels, countries of origin and genders. Overall, the empirical results suggest that immigrant labour force effects on native‐born worker employment rates have been persistent and but weak throughout the business cycle. These effects are globally positive, and immigrant origins do not appear to change the nature of their impact. We offer some explanations for these findings related to dual labour markets and to differences in levels of substitution among native and immigrant workers.     

Tax competition when firms choose their organizational form: Should tax loopholes for multinationals be closed?

We analyze a sequential game between two symmetric countries when firms can invest in a multinational structure that confers tax savings. Governments are able to commit to long-run tax discrimination policies before firms' decisions are made and before statutory capital tax rates are chosen non-cooperatively. Whether a coordinated reduction in the tax preferences granted to mobile firms is beneficial or harmful for the competing countries depends critically on the elasticity with which the firms' organizational structure responds to tax discrimination incentives. A model extension with countries of different size shows that small countries are likely to grant more tax preferences than larger ones, along with having lower effective tax rates.     

Investigating gender differences in consumers’ experience of guilt: A comparative study

The literature of guilt in the context of consumer behavior is notably limited. It is particularly limited with respect to examining gender differences across nations. Existing studies have only evaluated gender differences, in terms of consumer guilt, in the United States. In addition, those studies evaluated gender differences in specific consumption situations such as consumer boycotting and food consumption. Thus, they do not give a comprehensive understanding of gender variations in consumer guilt. Notably, gender differences with regard to consumer guilt were shown to be limited in countries other than the United States. These studies provided contradictory results to established findings in social psychology. In view of this, by using quantitative techniques, numerous consumption settings, and samples from two distinct countries, this study provides a holistic assessment of gender differences in consumer guilt across nations. The findings indicate that gender differences, with respect to consumer guilt, are predominately present in individualistic countries and notably absent in collectivist countries. Hence, marketers should consider gender as an influential variable when devising guilt related strategies in individualistic countries. In contrast, marketers may reconsider allocating resources, with respect to gender related marketing strategies, in collectivist countries.     

1987-2004年各国消费函数面板分析及经验启示

本文利用1987-2004年的面板数据,对41个国家的消费函数进行了比较研究,分析了高收入国家和中低收入国家的边际消费倾向和自发性消费,指出高收入国家的边际消费倾向虽然低于中低收入国家,但其自发性消费则大大高于中低收入国家。本文还从收入、消费、边际消费倾向和自发性消费等角度提出了中国刺激消费、拉动内需的相关对策。     

How renewable energy consumption lower global CO2 emissions? Evidence from countries with different income levels

Significant difference in the emission–renewables nexus across countries with different income levels is frequently ignored in previous studies. To empirically investigate whether the effect of renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions differs across countries with different income levels, the emission–growth–renewables nexus for a global panel of 120 countries and four income-based subpanels over the period 1995–2015 is examined. Fully considering the potential cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity is utilised. Cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity are confirmed for the global panel as well as for all four subpanels. Only for the global panel, high-income subpanel and upper-middle-income subpanel is the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis valid. Renewable energy consumption has a negative effect on CO₂ emissions, but its effect is not significant; the mitigation effect may be obscured by higher economic growth and increasing non-renewable energy consumption. The global panel and four subpanels provide mixed directionality of causality among the variables, suggesting that for various income-based subpanels, significant differences exist in the effect of renewable energy consumption on CO₂ emissions, especially highlighting in various direct and indirect influencing paths between renewable energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.     

Consumption and macroeconomic policies: Theory and evidence from developing countries

Abstract

This paper examines determinants of private consumption in a sample of developing countries. The empirical model includes income, a proxy for the cost of consumption, and the exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these determinants are likely to trigger adjustment in planned consumption, while unanticipated changes determine random transitory adjustment in consumption. Fluctuations in private consumption are mostly random with respect to unanticipated changes in income and, to a lesser extent, the exchange rate. Consumption increases during cyclical expansion of income and decreases in the face of an unanticipated increase in the cost of consumption. Exchange rate fluctuations have mixed results on private consumption. As for the effects of domestic policies, fiscal policy has a limited, and sometimes negative, effect on private consumption. Monetary growth, in contrast, stimulates an increase in private consumption. This evidence supports recent calls to decrease the size of government and enhance the role of monetary policy in stimulating private activity in developing countries.     

Rational Addiction and Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from the Nordic countries

The purpose of this paper is to test Becker and Murphy's (1988) rational addiction model on 35 years of time series data on alcohol consumption in each of the four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The empirical relevance of rational addiction theory is assessed by examining the influence of past and future consumption and contemporaneous prices on current consumption. More precisely, the rational addiction model maintains that past and future consumption should have a positive effect and that current price should have the conventional negative effect on consumption. In addition, some parameter restrictions (regarding past and future prices and consumption) implied by rational addiction are tested. Finally, the own-price elasticities from rational addiction specifications are compared to those obtained from more conventional demand specifications which ignore addiction. Ignoring addiction may provide misleading estimates of the price sensitivity of alcohol consumption and this may, in turn, lead to underestimation of the effects of major changes in price policy such as those currently taking place in the Nordic countries.