市场规模、经济结构与经济增长——论东亚一体化的必然性

科学技术的进步促进了社会产出的增长 ,但单纯依赖数量的扩张并不能实现经济持续的发展。边际产出效益的下降会导致供需的结构矛盾。对经济结构进行及时调整才能确保社会经济效益持续增长。东亚危机的根本原因在于东亚各国缺乏足够的技术积累和人力资本 ,过度依赖于它国技术转移 ,产出结构的升级出现障碍。而东亚各国国内市场规模都比较狭小是导致这种发展模式的一个重要原因。因此 ,一体化也就成为东亚各国的必然选择。     

GDP growth,terms-of-trade effects,and total factor productivity

The purpose of this paper is to assess the contribution of each one of the major factors explaining Australian nominal GDP growth: technological change, movements in the terms of trade, increases in the endowments of labour and capital, and changes in domestic output prices. We use an index number technique as well as an econometric approach. Moreover, we look at several methods to decompose total factor productivity growth into secular and unexpected components. All our empirical results have a tight theoretical foundation, being based on the GDP function approach to modelling the production sector of an open economy.     

市场潜力、贸易自由化与地区工资差距

在新经济地理学的框架下,本文构建理论模型研究市场潜力和贸易自由化与地区工资差距的关系,根据中国1993－2012年的省际面板数据,采用工具变量二阶段最小二乘法实证检验市场潜力和贸易自由化对地区工资水平的影响效应。研究结果表明,市场潜力和贸易自由化对地区工资水平均有显著为正的影响作用,且二者还存在替代关系。进一步的分析发现,贸易自由化程度较高的沿海地区,其市场潜力对地区工资水平的影响较小,而在内陆地区则恰好相反。     

Cross-Autocorrelation in the Brazilian Equity Market Before and After Financial Liberalization

ABSTRACT

This study examines cross-autocorrelation in the Brazilian equity market before and after the effect of its financial liberalization. The sample consists of daily data from January 1986 through December 1999. Differences in size-based portfolios are tested using Granger-causality and trading volume. The results confirm that large stock portfolio returns lead small stock portfolio returns, but the lagged response of small stock portfolio returns diminish following financial liberalization. Relative trading volume of small stocks increases after financial liberalization while relative trading volume of large stocks decreases.

RESUMEN. Este estudio examina la auto correlación cruzada antes y después de la liberalización del mercado. La muestra consiste de datos diarios entre enero de 1986 y diciembre de 1999. Las diferencias entre las carteras formadas según el tamaño de las empresas se prueban usando la causalidad de Granger y el volumen negociado. Los resultados confirman que las carteras de acciones de empresas de gran envergadura anticipan el retorno de las carteras pertenecientes a empresas de pequeño porte, pero la respuesta desfasada de la cartera de empresas de pequeño porte disminuye después de la liberalización financiera. El volumen negociado inherente a las acciones de las empresas pequeñas aumenta después de la liberalización financiera mientras que el volumen negociado relativo a las acciones de las empresas de gran envergadura disminuye.

RESUMO. Este estudo examina a auto correlação cruzada antes e depois da liberalização do mercado. A amostra consiste de dados diários entre janeiro de 1986 e dezembro de 1999. As diferenças entre carteiras formadas segundo o tamanho das empresas são testadas usando-se a causalidade de Granger e o volume negociado. Os resultados confirmam que carteiras de aç[otilde]es de empresas de grande porte antecipam o retorno de carteiras de empresas de pequeno porte mas a resposta defasada da carteira de empresas de pequeno porte diminui depois da liberalização financeira. O volume negociado relativo das aç[otilde]es de empresas pequenas aumenta depois da liberalização financeira enquanto o volume negociado relativo das aç[otilde]es de empresas de grande porte diminui.     

50 years of regional integration in ASEAN

ABSTRACT

This article offers a brief overview of the development of ASEAN in its 50 years of existence. It covers the early motivations and developments since the late 1960s, the acceleration of integration and creation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area in the 1990s, and – more recently – the development of the ASEAN Economic Community, the ASEAN Political-Security Community, and the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community.     

Market integration and convergence to the Law of One Price: evidence from the European car market

This paper exploits the unique case of European market integration to investigate the relationship between integration and price convergence in international markets. Using a panel data set of car prices, we examine how the process of integration has affected cross-country price dispersion in Europe. We find surprisingly strong evidence of convergence towards both the absolute and the relative versions of the Law of One Price (LOOP). Our analysis illuminates the main sources of segmentation in international markets and suggests the type of institutional changes that can successfully reduce it.     

论区域市场变迁的时序进程——以云贵区域市场为例

文章从历史的角度,以近代云贵区域市场发育为例,通过实证分析,探讨中国传统区域市场的变迁时序进程,为当今时代如何促进区域市场发展提供参考。     

我国海运服务市场开放与海运服务贸易自由化

海运服务贸易是国际服务贸易的重要部分之一。加入世界贸易组织之后,我国逐步落实在国际海运服务、海运辅助服务、集装箱服务、海运代理服务和国内航行权等方面做出的承诺。为促进海运服务贸易自由化的发展,我国的海运服务市场应当遵循适度开放的原则,在未来海运服务贸易的双边、多边谈判中争取更大的话语权。     

发展民营银行和资本市场 建立金融市场新格局

本文认为,发展民营银行是改善银行结构,提高银行素质,加大金融对经济支持力度,开展与外资银行进行市场竞争的必然要求,也是打破国有银行垄断地位,鼓励和支持非公有制经济发展的需要;发展民营银行,可以吸纳大量民间资本,规范货币市场秩序,堵塞非法集资,为中小企业融资提供新渠道,分散国有银行风险;发展民营银行,有利于金融市场的竞争。提高银行业整体素质。文章提出,当前发展民营商业银行的条件已经成熟,关键在于采取措施,积极推进,突破法律与体制障碍,鼓励和支持非公有制经济的企业法人或自然人投资民营银行;同时要加强内部管理和内部控制,推进利率市场化,为民营银行提供良好的外部条件和广阔的活动空间;民营银行发展要形式多样,不拘一格。     

Market Integration and Technological Change

This paper studies the incentives of firms to introduce new technologies in markets where network effects are sensitive to the identity of the adopter. We model this sensitivity by considering a market in which consumers are located in two economies and network effects across economies are weaker than intra-economy network effects. The strength of cross economy network effects is measured by the degree of market integration. We show that the incentives for technological change are decreasing with respect to the degree of integration and that they are in excess of what is socially desirable. We also show that different generation technologies can coexist only if the market is poorly integrated and that this coexistence is characterized by a form of technological leap-frogging across economies.     

Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation

Understanding the mechanism through which financial globalization affects economic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and benefits of opening financial markets. This paper is a first attempt at disentangling the effects of financial integration on the two main determinants of economic performance: productivity (TFP) and investment. I provide empirical evidence from a sample of 70 countries observed between 1975 and 1999. The results for both de jure and de facto indicators suggest that financial integration has a positive direct effect on productivity, while it does not directly affect capital accumulation. I also control for indirect effects of financial globalization through financial development and banking and currency crises. While financial integration does not systematically increase domestic financial depth, it may raise the likelihood of banking crises, though only to a minor extent. Yet, the overall effect of financial liberalization remains positive for productivity and negligible for investment.     

论实现我国区域经济一体化的共同市场建设

本文认为,区域经济一体化是当前我国区域经济发展的显著特点,其本质就是通过建立区域共同市场,实现区域资源的优化配置和合理的地区分工并推动全国统一市场建设。在区域经济一体化进程中,应改革户籍管理制度,建立经济区内统一的劳动保障制度,以形成区域劳动力市场,实现劳动力自由流动;推进区域金融服务一体化,弱化地方政府对企业的干预,制定统一的吸引外资政策,以建立统一资本市场,推进企业跨地区投资;消除商品跨地区流通障碍,建立共同商品市场,实现地区合理分工;在区域共同市场建设中还要注意区际利益分配、区域市场与全国统一市场的关系以及区域制度建设等问题。     

Credit constraints, equity market liberalizations and international trade

This paper provides evidence that credit constraints are an important determinant of international trade flows. I exploit shocks to the availability of external finance and examine the impact of equity market liberalizations on the export behavior of 91 countries in the 1980-1997 period. I show that liberalizations increase exports disproportionately more in financially vulnerable sectors that require more outside finance or employ fewer collateralizable assets. This result is not driven by cross-country differences in factor endowments and is independent of simultaneous trade policy reforms. Moreover, it obtains with equal strength in the full panel of countries as well as in both panel and event-study analyses of countries which removed capital controls during the sample period. Finally, the effects of liberalizations are more pronounced in economies with initially less active stock markets, indicating that foreign equity flows may substitute for an underdeveloped domestic financial system. Similarly, opening equity markets has a greater impact in the presence of higher trade costs caused by restrictive trade policies.     

欧盟天然气市场一体化分析

20世纪80年代以来,欧盟内部统一大市场建设取得了巨大的进展,但在欧盟能源市场的自由化和一体化方面却收效甚微。近年来,随着能源重要性的不断加强,欧盟将天然气市场作为内部统一市场新一轮的发展重点。文章运用协整检验方法对欧盟天然气市场一体化进行了实证分析,认为目前欧盟天然气市场一体化程度仍然较低、成员国市场分割严重。     

产权市场发展与资本市场建设

本文认为,产权市场是中国特色的资本市场,市场环境还不够理想,存在一些问题:一是国有产权交易的时候,产权不够清晰;二是中国企业信用与个人诚信不能令人满意;三是中介机构素质不高;四是职业经理人阶层尚未形成;五是缺乏金融支持;六是法制环境不完善等。文章提出,中国产权市场基本设计思路是在现有环境下如何能够最大限度地既保证国有产权的有效流转又防止国有资产的流失,这就必须遵循公开和竞争的基本原则,努力建设一个多层次的资本市场。     

中国内地与香港债券市场整合问题研究

债券市场是现代金融体系的重要组成部分,债券市场整合是中国内地与香港开展金融合作的重要方面。文章认为中国内地与香港进行债券市场整合有助于巩固香港的国际金融中心地位,有助于推进人民币国际化和利率市场化进程,有助于促进中国内地债券市场的发展完善和加快亚洲金融一体化步伐。但目前中国内地与香港在进行债券市场整合时会遇到一系列障碍性因素:香港人民币存量有限;人民币尚未实现完全可自由兑换;内地与香港两地的利差带来的投机套利活动会对内地金融体系形成冲击等。在对中国内地与香港债券市场整合的近期、中期和远期模式进行设计展望的基础上,文章提出了推进内地与香港债券市场整合的一系列政策建议。     

Mean-Reversion and Long Memory in the Stock Market Indexes of Some Latin American Countries

ABSTRACT

In this paper we examine the mean-reversion and long-memory properties in the stock market indexes of some Latin American countries by means of fractional integration. In doing so, we allow for a much richer degree of flexibility in the dynamic behaviour of the series not achieved when using the classical representations based on I(0) or I(1) processes. We use a semiparametric local Whittle estimator based on the frequency domain. The results show that the order of integration of the series is higher than 1 for Argentina, Venezuela and Colombia and is around 1 or slightly higher for Mexico. The results also show that the unit root cannot be rejected for the case of Brazil. Splitting the samples around the periods of crisis, we find long-memory stock market returns in the pre-crisis period for all countries except Brazil. However, using post-crisis data, the unit-root cannot be rejected, which might be consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. A notable exception is the case of Colombia, where long memory is also found in the returns for the post-crisis period.

RESUMEN. En este estudio examinamos las propiedades de la reversión media y de la memoria prolongada en los índices del mercado bursátil en algunos países latino-americanos, a través de la integración fraccional. Utilizando este método, permitimos la ocurrencia de una flexibilidad mucho más rica en el comportamiento dinámico de las series, que no se puede lograr con el uso de las representaciones clásicas, basadas en los procesos I(0) o I(1). Utilizamos un estimador Whittle local semiparamétrico, fundamentado en el dominio de la frecuencia. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el orden de integración de la serie es mayor a 1 para Argentina, Venezuela y Colombia, y alrededor de o poco más de 1 para México. Además, los resultados también demuestran que, en el caso brasileño, no puede rechazarse la unidad raíz. Al dividir las muestras alrededor de los períodos de crisis, descubrimos que el mercado bursátil con memoria prolongada vuelve a aparecer en el período pre crisis en todos los países menor Brasil. Sin embargo, si usamos los datos post crisis no podemos rechazar la unidad raíz ya que la misma puede ser coherente con la Hipótesis del Mercado Eficiente. Una excepción notable esel caso de Colombia, donde la memoria prolongada también se encuentra en los retornos para el período post crisis.

RESUMO. Neste artigo examinamos as propriedades de reverãs média e memória longa nos índices de mercados de aç[otilde]es de alguns países latino-americanos por meio da integração fracionária. Com isto, permitimos um grau de flexibilidade bem maior no comportamento dinâmico da série, não obtida quando se usam representaç[otilde]es clássicas baseadas nos processos I(0) e I(1). Empregamos um estimador Whittle local semiparamétrico baseado no domínio da freqüência. Os resultados mostram que a ordem de integração das série é maior que 1 para a Argentina, Venezuela e Colômbia e em torno de 1 ou ligeiramente maior para o México. Os resultados também mostram que a raiz unitária não pode ser rejeitada para o caso do Brasil. Dividindo-se as amostras em torno dos períodos de crise, encontramos retornos de mercado de aç[otilde]es de memória longa no período pré-crise para todos os países, exceto o Brasil. Entretanto, usando dados pós-crise, a raiz unitária não pode ser rejeitada, o que poderia ser compatível com a Hipótese do Mercado Eficiente. Uma exceção notável é o caso da Colômbia, onde a memória longa também se encontra nos retornos para o período pós-crise.     

论我国农产品流通市场的资源整合与内涵提升

我国农产品流通市场经过改革开放后的大发展,市场结构发生了巨大变化,已由数量型规模发展,转为内涵的提高。根据对我国农产品流通市场建设的基本评估和发展趋势判断,指出整合市场资源与提升市场内涵是我国农产品流通市场发展的必然选择。     

Education bias of trade liberalization and wage inequality in developing countries

The aim of this article is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled–unskilled wage differential. When better educated societies open up their economies, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster.     

一体化市场制度与区域经济一体化

当前，在我国一体化市场制度的构建中，地方政府成为制度变迁的“中间抵制”力量。文章运用博弈论的分析方法，探寻突破地方政府“中间抵制”的可行途径，并对实现我国经济运行模式从“行政区经济”向“区域经济一体化”转变提出作者的见解。