对近期与中长期中国粮食安全的再认识

粮食安全始终是国家经济、社会稳定与发展的基础,突如其来的新冠疫情在影响中国与全球经济发展的同时,也引起社会各界对粮食安全问题的广泛关注。本文分析了中国粮食安全保障现况、近期各界关注粮食安全的主要问题和未来面临的挑战,并预测中长期主要粮食供需变动趋势。分析表明,近期和中长期中国口粮绝对安全,未来饲料粮(玉米和大豆等)进口将逐渐增长以保障国内畜产品的供给安全;而笼统的粮食安全概念往往误导社会各界和政府。口粮安全、饲料或畜产品安全是中国粮食安全已至食物安全的关键问题。最后,本文提出保障国家粮食安全的相关政策建议。     

The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity.     

我国贫困农村家庭食物安全状况及影响因素的实证研究

本文在深入分析食物安全、家庭食物安全内涵的基础上，利用12个国家挟贫重点县的农户调查资料，通过构建指标体系对我国贫困农村的家庭食物安全水平和程度进行衡量和评价，并对其影响因素进行了分析，结果表明：近20多年来，我国贫困农村地区的家庭食物安全水平不断提高，食物安全广度不断扩大，但是食物安全深度却出现下降；食物获得能力对家庭食物安全具有显著的正影响，提高贫困农村地区居民的收入水平和家庭粮食自给能力有助于降低家庭的食物不安全发生概率；食物可获得性对家庭食物安全具有非常显著的正影响，市场方便度越高，实现家庭食物安全的概率越高；家庭规模和家庭结构对家庭食物安全具有显著影响，随着家庭规模、家庭结构复杂程度和家庭温饱负担程度的提高，农户面临的食物不安全风险的概率也在增加。     

Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia,Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa

Exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) help to improve global wheat availability and, hence, global food security. During the past 15 years, however, RUK wheat exports have shown high variability, mainly because they have been repeatedly diminished by severe harvest failures. We present an outlook for RUK wheat production and exports up to 2027, taking into account possible yield variability and harvest failures, and focusing on the impact on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the world’s major wheat importing region. For the analysis we use the stochastic version of the Aglink-Cosimo model. Simulation results show that wheat yields in RUK are a major source of uncertainty for international wheat markets. The projected substantial increases in world market prices due to limited RUK wheat exports threaten food security in MENA and highlight the need for both stabilising RUK yields and novel complementary food security approaches to decrease MENA’s vulnerability to disruptions in agricultural world markets.     

新冠肺炎疫情对全球食物安全的影响及对策

当前,新冠肺炎疫情已在全球扩散,许多本就因为冲突、自然灾害或气候变化而深陷食物不安全的国家和地区的防疫形势也日益严峻。虽然目前全球食物供给总体充足,食物价格稳定,但疫情的快速蔓延将给全球食物安全带来威胁。由于隔离和边境关闭,市场、供应链和贸易受到波及,全球食物的供给受到影响。食物流通渠道可能因运输中断和更加严格的检疫措施而受阻,运输成本和贸易成本增加、效率降低。一些国家为保障国内食物供应而采取限制出口的行为,将影响依赖于粮食进口的国家进口粮食,也不利于依赖于出口初级农产品的低收入发展中国家出口农产品。封锁措施带来的经济影响使居民收入和购买力下降,居民获得充足的营养食物变得更加困难。食物安全不再是一个区域性问题,而是一个需要共同应对的全球性问题,各国应当共同努力,加强合作和全球治理,对最弱势群体采取迅速的保护和援助措施。既要确保国内食物供应链的正常运行,同时,应该保持贸易开放,并利用和创新电子商务保障食物供应,保障全球粮食安全。     

Trading-off: Rural food security and land rights in South Africa

In light of the high percentage of poor people in rural areas of South Africa, the post-apartheid government has, among other things, prioritized food security in their policy processes. However, these food security policies stop short of workable strategies for the most difficult situations, particularly in the former reserves (Bantustans). A case study of the Eastern Cape Province reveals that food security managed by government agencies experience difficulties at implementation stage due to land issues. At the heart of the problem is the poor understanding of rural people's land use plans and multiple livelihood strategies. The paper concludes that food security projects in the former Bantustans will continue to suffer unless food security policies are efficiently integrated to those of land reform.     

牢牢掌握粮食安全主动权

粮食安全是永恒的主题,确保国家粮食安全事关重大.虽然中国目前已实现"谷物基本自给,口粮绝对安全",在粮食安全方面具有足够的底气,但从长期来看,始终面临一系列挑战性问题与需要平衡的利益关系.为此,本文认为确保粮食安全要抓其根本,充分发挥各方面积极因素,保障粮食总量稳定增长,牢牢掌握粮食安全主动权.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击粮食安全:趋势、影响与应对

新冠肺炎疫情在全球加速扩散蔓延,引发全球粮食市场异常波动以及对中国粮食安全的担忧。疫情对后期全球粮食生产与贸易的影响将进一步加大,全球粮食市场波动有可能进一步升级。随着全球金融市场充分释放流动性,国际投机资本若炒作农产品市场,爆发类似2008年粮食危机的风险将越来越高。分析表明,中国粮食安全保障体系总体上可从容应对全球粮食市场波动升级的挑战,但大豆等农产品进口需防控国际市场波动风险。本文认为,要高度重视全球粮食市场波动的可能风险和挑战,必须加强监测、及早谋划,系统应对、综合施策。包括:有效管控输入性不稳定预期对国内粮食市场的干扰和冲击;进一步强化粮食生产能力建设;构建国家粮食安全保障风险治理体系;完善重要农产品储备体系;强化农产品全球供应链管理;加强国际粮食安全、贸易和投资政策协调。     

后疫情时代粮食发展与粮食安全

后疫情时代,世界粮食发展与安全格局发生新变化。稳定发展粮食生产,继续解决好吃饭问题,是治国理政的头等大事。改革开放以来,特别是党的十八大以来,我国粮食发展与安全取得重大成就,堪称伟大奇迹。中国特色的“三农”理念、农村改革、制度政策、农业经营主体、农业科技创新,为国家粮食发展与安全奇迹的创造提供了有力支撑。面对当前全球粮食生产及供给面临的新形势新挑战,必须深入贯彻习近平总书记关于粮食安全的重要论述,认真学习贯彻十九届五中全会精神,进一步强化对粮食地位、功能及内涵的认识,从维护国家安全、应对国际地缘政治新挑战和新冠肺炎疫情影响、支撑国家经济社会稳定发展、加快形成双循环发展新格局和全面建设社会主义现代化国家的战略高度,坚持把“三农”工作摆在全党工作的重中之重地位,坚定不移地走中国特色粮食发展与安全之路。     

Options for African agriculture in an era of high food and energy prices

In a world of high food and energy prices, Africa has an imperative to do a better job feeding itself and ensuring that its people are food secure. At the same time, there is a new business opportunity to work with the private sector in developing the continent's potential to produce significantly more food, raw materials, and biofuels for regional and world markets. A challenge for African policy makers is to find the right balance between a food security and a business agenda, and to ensure that the business agenda engages with large numbers of small farms. Agricultural development requires many things, but the fundamentals for Africa are developing markets, increasing agricultural productivity, and managing volatility. This cannot happen at sufficient scale and speed without strong public sector leadership, enabling policies and investments, and well‐focused implementation strategies.     

Food security and Canada's agricultural system challenged by COVID-19

The effect of COVID-19 on Canadian food security is examined from two different perspectives. COVID-19 creates a unique “income shock” that is expected to increase the prevalence of household food insecurity. This food insecurity can be measured by utilizing the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). More fundamentally, COVID-19 heightens household concern about the capacity of the Canadian food system to ensure food availability. Despite surges in demand and supply chain disruptions, we currently do not observe broad, rapid appreciation in food prices. This suggests that there is an adequate supply of food for the near term. There is less certainty over intermediate and longer time periods because so many factors are in flux, particularly the rate of increases in sicknesses and deaths across the country and globally. Data on these health factors and elements of the food supply chain are needed to predict beyond a short time frame. In this regard, we discuss three ongoing considerations—ease of capital flows, international exchange, and maintaining transportation—that will help ensure food availability in the longer run.     

高水平开放下我国粮食安全的非传统挑战及政策转型

当前我国粮食安全已经迈入新的发展阶段,一方面国内的粮食安全保障程度处于历史最佳时期,另一方面农业对外开放也处于全球领先水平,国际粮食市场日益成为保障国内粮食供应的重要组成部分,但同时也为维护国家粮食安全带来了一系列前所未有的非传统压力和挑战,包括以高产量、高进口、高库存为代表的过度进口冲击粮食自给率的“想挡挡不住”、粮食生产国内支持政策与WTO国际规则存在一致性纷争的“想做不能做”、世界市场风险与贸易动荡加剧国际粮源不确定性的“想进有风险”,以及在全球粮食安全治理体系中的作用仍待加强的“想为难作为”。在新一轮高水平开放下,亟需转型思维、构建“三元平衡”的开放型国家粮食安全战略保障体系,积极推动我国粮食安全目标由产量导向向竞争力导向转型,农业国内支持政策设计由国内外分轨向内外对接转型,外部粮食市场与资源利用由单方自主开合向主动风险管控转型,主动参与全球粮食安全治理与制度变革,全面升级对内与对外的粮食安全治理能力。     

The significance of different realms of value for agricultural land in Sweden

The demand for additional agricultural land is expected to rise by approximately 50 per cent by 2050 on a global level, and agricultural land of high quality needs to be preserved to ensure future food security. However, agricultural land per capita is decreasing. One of the main reasons for this in the EU and globally is the building of houses or infrastructure on agricultural land. There is a possibility that the Swedish agricultural sector will grow in the future and supply more regions than its own territory with food due to, e.g., climate change. Although appropriate regulations exist to support local decision makers in protecting agricultural land in Sweden, the potential to provide such protection is not fully utilised. This paper aims to contribute to explaining why Swedish municipalities build on agricultural land through an analysis of the values behind the arguments for preserving and exploiting agricultural land at the municipal level and the implications of these values for the preservation of agricultural land in Sweden. Assuming value pluralism, we analyse 30 municipal comprehensive plans through a framework of nine realms of value. We find that municipalities deploy at least eight of the nine realms of value to motivate the preservation of agricultural land, but the economic realm is more dominant among arguments to exploit agricultural land. Most plans do not consider food security. Municipalities could become better prepared to handle unexpected events if they worked with longer-term future scenarios. Further research is needed regarding how different values are weighed against each other in actual exploitation issues.     

Trade,policy, and food security

Food insecurity is extensive throughout the world and hunger and malnutrition are expected to remain serious humanitarian and political concerns, both in the short term and for the foreseeable future, particularly in low income developing countries where many rural and urban households are both income and asset poor. In those countries, domestic agricultural production is expected to be especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change over the next 30 years. Thus international markets for staple agricultural commodities, which have become increasingly important as sources of nutrition for both developing and developed countries over the past 60 years, are likely to become even more important in the future. Free trade policies allow countries to exploit their comparative advantages in economic activity, increasing average per capita incomes, longer term growth rates and a country's capacity to fund social safety nets for the poor. However, many countries abandoned those policies in favor of domestic protections in their efforts to mitigate the effects of short run food crises. The policy challenge is therefore to resolve the tension between optimal long run policies and short run initiatives to address food security concerns.     

论中国的耕地保护与粮食安全 ——与茅于轼先生商榷

研究目的：讨论和评析茅于轼先生在其主持的《耕地保护与粮食安全》研究中所提出的若干观点,以澄清我们对耕地保护与粮食安全的相关认识。研究方法：文献资料法、统计分析法。研究结果：（1）仅从经济分析角度评价中国的耕地保护政策是不科学的;（2）应该认识到粮食安全是包括粮食数量安全、质量安全、社会安全和生态安全的科学体系;（3）对未来粮食缺口的预测必须科学合理;（4）房价问题较为复杂,不能简单将其归咎于耕地保护政策的实施。研究结论：茅于轼先生的研究在立论基础、分析过程和结论提出等方面都存在缺陷。     

Land fragmentation,climate change adaptation,and food security in the Gamo Highlands of Ethiopia

Household food security among smallholder farmers is sensitive to a variable and changing climate, requiring farmers in the Gamo Highlands of Ethiopia to adopt new land management practices to improve food security. Agricultural land in the Gamo Highlands is highly fragmented. The extent to which land fragmentation (LF) moderates the food security effects of sustainable land management (SLM) practices is unknown. This study used probit and Poisson models to explain this relationship. The study found that food insecurity was severe during the food shortfall season. LF provides more potential opportunities for improving food security than challenges. Furthermore, SLM practices had both positive and negative effects on food security and their effects were conditioned by the magnitude of LF. Reducing severe LF through the assembly of small parcels into larger heterogeneous plot clusters could enhance food security by exploiting synergies between adaptation practices and LF.     

Site selection to test an integrated approach to agricultural research for development: combining expert knowledge and participatory Geographic Information System methods

The sub-Saharan Africa challenge programme is designed to address the problems of failures of agricultural markets, inappropriate policies and natural resource degradation, that contribute to the continuing deterioration of livelihoods and food security in the region. It is seeking to do this by redefining the roles of scientists and farmers through collaborative learning processes, addressing questions about the level, timing, type and formof participation, as well as themost effective approaches andmethods to foster them. The research domains of the programme deal with sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture, the sustainable management of natural resources, the development of efficient markets, and the promotion of enabling policies. One question that was addressed in designing the initiative was deciding where to work so as to maximize the chances of successful testing of this new approach, so that it would lead to significant reductions of rural poverty. A participatory process was put in place to design a framework to accomplish this site selection, and then to apply it in west, east and southern Africa. A mixture of spatial data analysis and expert knowledge on spatial and non-spatial factors was used, and one primary site in each region was identified to form the basis for the next phase of the challenge programme. Several lessons were learnt from the process, including the importance of adapting themethods to actual conditions, the increased utility of targetting when the quantitative and the qualitative are freely combined, and the continued need for baseline spatial and non-spatial data to improve the targeting of research in the future that is designed to alleviate poverty in sub-Saharan Africa.     

全球油气资源形势与发展趋势

根据对国际能源署关于全球石油天然气资源的分布情况及产销供需情况资料的分析可知,世界石油天然气资源丰富,可满足未来20—30年左右世界经济发展的需要,未来油气资源无论是供给还是需求均呈稳定增长态势,油气价格将在波动中上升,维持高位运行,亚太地区国家石油安全形势更加严峻,由于世界油气资源分布极不均衡,油气资源作为世界重要战略资源的地位在未来20—30年内将不会改变,并仍将是国家和地区间经济争夺的焦点。     

基于粮食安全的林业生物质能发展

以粮食为基础的生物能源已有危及粮食安全的倾向。发展林业生物质能有重要意义,中国有发展林业生物质能的巨大潜力,但当前也存在一些影响因素。为了实现能源安全和粮食安全的双赢,今后生物能源的发展应以非粮作物为主。应认识到发展林业生物质能重要性,加强技术研究,强化科技自主创新,加大产业扶持力度。     

Land use consolidation in Rwanda: The experiences of small-scale farmers in Musanze District,Northern Province

The modernization and intensification of agricultural production in Africa has long been a policy goal, for increased productivity and food security. In 2008, the Rwandan government implemented various land and agricultural reforms to transform Rwandan agriculture from subsistence farming to market-oriented production. Central to this agricultural transformation was the Crop Intensification Programme, intended to increase the agricultural productivity of high-potential food crops and encourage land use consolidation, i.e., the joint cultivation of large areas, which was expected to deliver important economies of scale. This programme has been criticized, for example, for authoritarian implementation, negative effects on food security from sole-cropping a few selected crops, and increasing rural socioeconomic differentiation.This paper analyses the effects of the land use consolidation programme at the household level, as experienced by small-scale farmers in Musanze District in the Northern Province of Rwanda. The paper draws on 45 individual and 22 collective qualitative semi-structured interviews with small-scale farmers and local key informants in five sectors, conducted in 2013 and 2014.The findings show that there is satisfaction, dissatisfaction, and resistance to the programme, especially regarding the selected crops to be cultivated. The programme, including supporting mechanisms, seems to work well for the relatively better-off farmers, who have bigger and scattered land areas, whereas it does not work well for poor farmers with very small plots, which is common in rural Rwanda.