城乡养老保险关系转移接续问题研究

随着新农保试点的扩大和城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度的完善,城乡养老保险关系转移接续问题,尤其是解决农民工交替参加城乡养老后的权益保护问题,日益成为完善城乡养老保险制度的重要问题。本研究通过对新农保和城镇养老制度体系分析,以及城乡养老关系转移接续现状研究,提出了采取＂折算年限＂、＂补差＂或＂分段计算＂方法解决我国城乡养老保险关系转移接续的解决思路和具体方案,并就具体实施问题提出政策建议。     

我国养老保险公司盈利模式探析——基于2010年信息披露报告的分析

截止2010年底,我国先后成立了平安养老、太平养老、长江养老、国寿养老、泰康养老等专业养老保险公司,本文以这5家养老保险公司2010年披露的年报信息为基础,通过盈利模式的构建、相关财务信息的分析,提出5种可能的盈利模式。     

售房养老模式中金融运营机制的探讨

随着老龄化社会的到来,养老已经成为全社会日益关注的话题.养老制度安排历经千年,形成多种养老模式.本文将提出一种新的养老模式,即售房养老.并在探讨这一模式的基本思路、理论渊源的基础上,着重探讨金融机构在售房养老模式实施中的运营机制,以及目前要推行这种新型养老模式金融机制的尚存缺陷.     

Do pension buyouts help or hurt employees (retirees)?

This article compares expected pension default losses of employees and retirees before and after pension buyouts. The comparisons are made using a stochastic model calibrated with market data. The analysis shows that the lower protection level provided by the State Guarantee Association relative to that of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) is a critical factor that explains the welfare reduction, or equivalently, larger expected pension default losses, of most retirees who become annuity holders in the buyouts. The analysis also shows that the employee welfare, or equivalently expected pension default gains or losses, depends on the continued PBGC protection and, critically, their employers' postbuyout default risk and pension funding status. Moreover, these employee welfare changes are quite different for the corporations included in this analysis. Our results suggest that welfare improvements depend on the PBGC and state insurance regulators' cooperation in protecting pension participants and supervising buyout insurers.     

拉丁美洲养老保险改革及其对中国的启示

自20世纪80年代起拉丁美洲国家对养老保险制度进行改革,将养老保险由国家公共管理改革为私有化运营或多种模式并存的方式。拉丁美洲国家作为发展中国家,其背景、社会条件和经济实力与中国类似,可以作为中国养老保险改革的参照样板;其多样化的改革方式及复杂的改革背景可以作为实践案例对中国的养老保险改革提供参考,对中国正在进行的养老保险改革和新模式创立提供借鉴。本文从国际化的视角选取拉美国家进行案例研究,通过比较分析其各自改革的手段和效果,结合中国的实际情况进行分析借鉴;尤其针对在加速城市化背景下中国长期二元社会突显的大批城乡移民养老保险问题,根据拉美私营化改革结果,借鉴吸收其经验教训,创新性提出中国城乡移民养老保险多元化的经营模式。     

The Effect of Regulations on Pension Risk Shifting: Evidence from the US and Europe

This paper provides evidence that pension regulations can incentivize or curb risk shifting in the investment of defined benefit plan assets. We document that in the US, where the pension insurance premium charged by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation is largely flat, financially distressed firms with severely underfunded plans shift pension investment risk. We further find that risk shifting is mitigated in the UK after the implementation of risk‐adjusted pension insurance premiums, and in the Netherlands where full pension funding is mandatory. Overall the results in this paper lend support to the view that structural flaws in the US statutory pension insurance scheme incentivize high‐risk sponsors to gamble their pension assets when distress terminations of their plans become foreseeable.     

Contracting out of a state pension scheme

Abstract

The title of this paper is not common in actuarial literature, but the subject is one which has become familiar to every Briton in the last two years and which is essentially actuarial. The phrase "contracting out" has become English shorthand for an arrangement by which a private pension scheme may decide that it will not join a State pension scheme, usually because it already provides equal or better benefits. If the private scheme "contracts out" it will be excused the payment of contributions and will, of course, forgo the benefits.     

建立主权养老基金：另辟机关事业单位养老保险改革之“蹊径”

近期,我国机关事业单位养老保险改革已是大势所趋,却又是难中之难,阻碍重重。南非的公务员养老保险制度向主权养老基金的成功转型的实践及其成熟经验,可以为中国的改革提供有益的借鉴,即建立一只完全积累的、中央集中管理的、缴费确定型的主权养老基金,来取代当前的＂国家保险＂型公务员养老金制度。     

Pricing pension buy-outs under stochastic interest and mortality rates

Pension buy-out is a special financial asset issued to offload the pension liabilities holistically in exchange for an upfront premium. In this paper, we concentrate on the pricing of pension buy-outs under dependence between interest and mortality rates risks with an explicit correlation structure in a continuous time framework. Change of measure technique is invoked to simplify the valuation. We also present how to obtain the buy-out price for a hypothetical benefit pension scheme using stochastic models to govern the dynamics of interest and mortality rates. Besides employing a non-mean reverting specification of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process and a continuous version of Lee–Carter setting for modeling mortality rates, we prefer Vasicek and Cox–Ingersoll–Ross models for short rates. We provide numerical results under various scenarios along with the confidence intervals using Monte Carlo simulations.     

我国推行“五支柱养老金制度”分析

为老年人口提供全面的、可行的、保障基本生活的养老保障制度是实现“人人老有所养”目标的必经之路。利用制度分析方法,认为在养老保障建设方面,我国存在严重的制度供给不足问题,并且现行的“三支柱养老金制度”运行效率低下,难以解决实际问题。引入“五支柱养老金制度”并进行可行性分析,认为其是适合我国国情的,能解决我国养老保障建设中遇到的问题。     

海南省被征地农民基本养老保险项目投资收益需求测算

目前,为保障被征地农民的利益,相关省市已陆续出台了被征地农民养老保险的相关政策。为了满足养老金的支付需求,必须对资金的投资收益需求进行测算。依据海南省颁布的《海南省被征地农民基本养老保险暂行办法》(下称《暂行办法》)的相关规定,本文对海南省被征地农民养老保险资金的投资收益率需求做了测算,并对性别比例、平均年龄、消费价格指数等因素进行了敏感性分析。     

我国城镇养老保险去身份化演进

本文以参保人身份为主线,梳理了我国城镇养老保险去身份化演进历程,研究发现城镇职工养老保险去身份化实现了不同所有制身份覆盖范围一体化、保障水平趋同化以及社会统筹一体化,职工和干部养老保险因去身份化进程滞后导致养老保险出现社会化与单位化、部分积累制与现收现付、保障水平以及养老金调整机制等方面的分割。     

机关事业单位养老保险改革对于财政支付压力的影响分析——以中小学教师为例

2015年,国务院出台一系列文件启动了机关事业单位养老保险制度的改革工作,其目的在于破除双轨制,建立起更为公平、可持续的养老保险制度。然而,改革无疑面临着诸多问题与阻碍,均需要有关部门予以应对、解决。基于此,本文通过选取某一中小学教师群体作为研究标的,模拟测算出了改革与不改革情况下财政所要承担的支付压力的变化情况,并就工资增长率、投资收益率和账户做实程度等变量进行了关于财政负担变化的敏感性分析。研究表明,进行机关事业单位养老保险制度改革具有制度的优越性与可持续性,且合理的工资增长率等配套措施安排将有助于财政压力的进一步降低。最后,在上述结论的基础上,本文提出了明确改革思路、注重配套措施、合理设定工资增长率、安全地进行市场化投资运营、注重与企业职工的养老待遇公平等建议。     

Rentenversicherung, Bev?lkerungsentwicklung und Kapitalmarktrendite – Eine Simulationsrechnung

How can the pension schemes be sustainably financed? This is an important issue particularly with regard to the demographic changes in many industrialized countries but also in other emerging economies such as China and India. In this paper, we use a macroeconomic model of overlapping generations to analyze the impacts of the demographic changes as well as the interactions between pension system, bond and stock markets. Furthermore, we examine how the pension system influences the distribution of wealth, consumption and saving within generations. We found out that an aging population will cause a drastic decline. Moreover, we examined which impacts on individuals?? welfare demographic changes can have for an existing pay-as-you-go pension scheme. An increase of pension age combined with a decrease of the contributions seems to be the best policy. On the other hand, increases in contributions as a result of demographic changes show the highest welfare losses.     

The real risk in pension forecasting

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on some of the flaws in the forecasting approach undertaken by the pension industry. Specifically, it considers the treatment of inflation and shows that the current modeling framework is too simplistic. I identify the flaws of the existing regulatory framework and provide an alternative full model framework constructed around the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries. By use of a simulation study I compare the deterministic inflation scheme applied in the industry to a stochastic scheme and show that the real value of the pension saver’s investment portfolio at retirement is highly dependent on the inflation scheme. As the deterministic scheme does not take state variable correlations into account it overestimates the expected portfolio value in real terms compared to the stochastic scheme. Moreover, the deterministic scheme gives rise to a more heavy-tailed distribution implying a misestimation of downside risk and upside potential. Finally, it is shown in a realistic case study that the pension saver’s expected retirement payout profile is heavily affected.     

The Effects of Liquidity Shocks on Corporate Investments and Cash Holdings: Evidence from Actuarial Pension Gains/Losses

This paper investigates how anticipated liquidity shocks affect corporate investment and cash holdings by examining the impacts of actuarial pension gains/losses that do not reduce current internal resources but will reduce those available in the future. Using a sample from Japanese manufacturing firms in which pension deficits had a huge impact on the internal resources of sponsoring firms, I show that pension losses significantly decrease the capital expenditures of sponsoring firms. Pension losses also increase corporate cash holdings, suggesting precautionary demands for cash prepared for future pension contributions. Overall, the results indicate that managers consider anticipated liquidity shocks in determining current investment and cash‐saving policies.     

英国养老金私有化改革的历程与评价

英国是较早进行养老金私有化改革的国家之一,开始于20世纪70年代末的"协议退出",导致保障水平下降、养老金收入差距拉大、基金管理费用高等问题日益显现,退出比例本身也呈下降趋势,人们越来越倾向于回到依靠国家养老金的老路上来.政府在新的改革中再次推行均等化,提高制度的再分配性.这一改革历程凸显反复、频繁、复杂,一方面给个人...     

Evaluating the Financial Performance of Pension Funds: An Individual Investor's Perspective

Pension funds require the managerial expertise of financial intermediaries, who must be paid a fee or spread. The spread significantly reduces the value of the pension fund over longer holding periods, and implies significantly greater incentive conflicts for defined contribution-funded pension funds than for defined benefit-funded pension funds. The magnitude of the intermediary spread and those factors affecting the demand for financial intermediary reputation and the marginal fee for this reputation are examined for a sample of 66 defined contribution and 54 defined benefit Australian pension funds during 1991–93. The intermediary spread significantly reduces the average net return provided to individual investors, particularly for defined contribution pension funds. Agency-related factors affecting the demand for financial intermediary reputation and its marginal fee reflect underlying contract-based differences between these types of fund.     

Defeasing Legacy Costs*

The authors propose a new way to defease the legacy costs of America's defined benefit pension system that will help ensure its viability. The proposal would allow companies to exchange their legacy pension debt for another liability with more attractive terms—to the benefit of the sponsor, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), and the plan participants. The transparency gained by separating the past from future liabilities will give better insight into sponsors' balance sheets. And it could take the PBGC out of the impossible position of insuring against events over which the insured have considerable control.     

The Tax Consequences of Long‐Run Pension Policy*

A firm's pension fund is legally separate from the firm. But because pension benefits are normally independent of fund performance, pension assets impact the firm very much as if they were firm assets. Because they are worth more when times are good and less when times are bad, common stocks in the pension fund add to the sponsoring firm's leverage. They cause contributions to a pension fund to be high just when the firm can least afford to pay them. Conversely, bonds in the pension fund will make it easier for the firm to avoid default on its own bonds when times are bad all over: The more bonds a pension fund buys, the more the firm can borrow. The tax treatment accorded the pension fund differs notably from that accorded the firm. Some have argued that a firm can capitalize on the difference by accelerating the funding of its pension plan. The benefits of full funding are wasted, however, unless the added contributions to the fund are invested in bonds; higher pension contributions now mean lower contributions later, hence higher taxes later. The benefits come from earning, after taxes, the pretax interest rate on the bonds in the pension fund. If the firm wants to take advantage of the differing tax treatment of bonds without altering the level of its current pension contributions, it can (1) sell stocks in the pension fund and then buy bonds with the proceeds while (2) issuing debt in the firm and buying back its own shares with the proceeds. An investment in the firm's own stock creates no more tax liability than an investment in stocks through the pension fund.