The Displacement Effect of Public Pensions on the Accumulation of Financial Assets*

The generosity of public pensions may depress private savings and provide incentives to retire early. While there is plenty of evidence supporting the latter effect, there remains considerable controversy over whether public pensions crowd out private savings. This paper uses international micro‐data sets collected over recent years to investigate whether public pensions displace private savings. The identification strategy relies not only on cross‐country differences in generosity but also on differences in the progressivity or non‐linearity of pension formulas across countries. We estimate that an extra dollar of pension wealth depresses accumulated financial assets around the time of retirement by 22 cents. An extra 10,000 dollars in public pension wealth reduces the average retirement age by roughly one month, which implies an elasticity of years of retirement with respect to pension wealth of 0.15.     

Voting on Pensions with Endogenous Retirement Age

It is often argued that the observed trend towards early retirement is due mainly to the implicit tax imposed on continued activity of elderly workers. We study the relevance of such a distortion in a political economy model with endogenous age of retirement. The setting is a two-period overlapping generations model. Individuals differ in their productivity. In the first period they work a fixed amount of time; in the second, they choose when to retire and then receive a flat rate pension benefit. Pensions are financed by a payroll tax on earnings in the first and in the second period of life. Such a tax is non distortionary in the first period; it is distortionary in the second period. We allow for some rebating of the second period tax. Individuals vote on the level of the payroll tax given the rebate which can range from 0 (biased system) to 100% (neutral system). We provide sufficient conditions for the existence of a voting equilibrium and study its properties. Under these conditions, high tax rates are supported by all the old and by low productivity young individuals. We show that the pivotal voter is a young individual. The number of young individuals who have higher wage than the pivotal voter equals half the total population. We also show that the introduction of a bias increases the political support for the pension system. Finally, we study the simultaneous determination of the bias and the tax rate through a voting procedure and show that the equilibrium (if any) implies a bias which is always positive and may or not be larger than one.     

Private Pension Arrangements and Retirement in Britain*

This paper looks at the policy debate surrounding private pensions and retirement patterns in the UK. Recent increases in longevity have led not only to increased pressures in public pensions but also to corresponding increases in the importance of private pensions in the UK and changes in the way in which they are structured. We consider the economic implications of these changes, and in particular the increased importance of defined contribution plans. In addition, we discuss the prospects for future trends in retirement ages.     

Annuity Markets and Retirement Security

The growing importance of defined contribution pension arrangements has drawn increased attention to the means by which retired people draw down their assets. Current UK law requires annuitisation of at least a fraction of defined contribution plan accumulations. Annuity markets have recently attracted some criticism with respect to pricing and the available range of product options. This paper describes a key feature of voluntary annuity markets: the presence of ‘adverse selection’. This is the tendency of annuitants to live longer than non‐annuitants, since individuals who know that they are likely to die soon do not purchase annuities. The paper presents information that quantifies the importance of adverse selection in the setting of private annuity prices and discusses the role of compulsory annuitisation requirements in reducing it. Requiring individuals to participate in the annuity market can reduce selection effects, at the cost of reducing individuals' range of retirement income options.     

The Political Feasibility of Increasing the Retirement Age: Lessons from a Ballot on the Female Retirement Age

In 1998, the Swiss voters approved of an increase in the female retirement age within the public pension system from 62 to 64. The referendum, being on a single issue only, offers a unique opportunity to explore the political feasibility of pension reforms and to apply theoretical models of life-cycle decision making. Estimates carried out with municipality data suggest that the outcome of the vote conforms well with predictions drawn from a theoretical model. Young agents, elderly and—to a lesser extent—middle-aged men favor an increase in female retirement age, while middle-aged women strongly oppose it. Richer communities and those with a high proportion of self-employed or a low fraction of blue-collar workers are more likely to opt for a higher retirement age. Ideological preferences and regional differences also play a considerable role.     

The retirement wealth of the baby boom generation

The paper compares the well-being of the baby boom generation (ages 40-55) in 2001 with the same age group in 1983. I find little evidence that their relative position deteriorated over the period. By some indicators, this generation has seen an improvement. In terms of income, the 40-55 age group was at about the same relative position in 2001 as in 1983. In terms of conventional wealth, there was some slippage over the period. In terms of mean augmented wealth (net worth plus pension and Social Security wealth), their relative position improved somewhat but in terms of median augmented wealth there was again some slippage.     

The Value of Teachers' Pensions in England and Wales*

The paper examines in detail the value of pension provision to teachers in the public sector in England and Wales, comparing pension accrual under both the pre‐ and the post‐2007 schemes. We find that, at the median, pension accruals under the old scheme rules were worth 14.7 per cent of current salary to members, while if the new scheme rules were applied to all current members this would fall to 11.2 per cent. We find that this reduction in generosity is more than sufficient to offset the increase in generosity implied by rising life expectancies over the last quarter of a century. In addition, we show how the estimates depend on both the shape of the underlying age–earnings profile and the headline pay award. We find that the value of the new scheme rules to Teachers' Pension Scheme (TPS) members is similar to the value of the defined contribution pension offered to civil servants, but worth more than a simple, example, private sector defined contribution scheme.     

德国里斯特养老保险计划及其对我国的启示

德国里斯特养老保险计划与我国企业年金几乎同时起步发展,两者都定位于第二层次的补充养老保险,但就目前的发展状况而言却是天壤之别。论文探讨了德国里斯特养老保险计划的规划思路、设计理念、发展特点及其对我国补充养老保险市场的借鉴与启示。文章指出具有补贴性质的类似于德国里斯特养老保险计划的个人储蓄养老保险是撬动我国补充养老保险市场发展的新思路,是推动我国补充养老保险发展壮大的新动力。     

Means Testing and Retirement Choices in Europe: A Comparison of the British and Danish Systems*

We develop a simulation model of household behaviour in which both the consumption/saving and labour/leisure choices are endogenous. This model is used to explore the effects of the UK and Danish state tax and benefit systems on the labour supply of workers aged 50 or over. We find that, in broad terms, differences in labour force participation can be accounted for by differences in benefit structures. Furthermore, our simulations suggest that the UK system is preferred by young people while the Danish arrangement – which imposes a larger tax burden and provides larger welfare benefits – is chosen by people of 50 or older. Notably, people older than 60 are in the majority in the simulated population. The Danish system does not promote notably greater equality over the lifetime, but it does underpin a higher level of consumption for people of 50 or older.     

Some Implications of Changing the Tax Basis for Pension Funds

Governments in many developed economies provide private pension plans with significant taxation incentives. However, as many retirement income systems are now being reviewed due to demographic, social and economic pressures, these taxation arrangements are also under scrutiny. This paper discusses some of the implications of the differences between the traditional taxation treatment adopted by most OECD nations and that adopted by Australia, where there is a tax on contributions, a tax on investment earnings and a tax on benefits. The results show that there are significant differences in the net value of the benefits received by individuals and the taxation revenue received by the government. On the other hand, it is shown that there is remarkably little to distinguish between the two tax structures in terms of summary measures of lifetime income, although the form in which the benefit is taken in retirement is significant in influencing intragenerational equity.     

Ageing and the tax implied in public pension schemes: simulations for selected OECD countries

A key figure suited to measuring intergenerational imbalances in unfunded public pension schemes is given by the ‘implicit tax rate’ imposed on each generation's lifetime income. The implicit tax arises from the fact that, quite generally, pension benefits fall short of actuarial returns to contributions paid to these systems while actively working. Under current pension policies, implicit tax rates will increase sharply for younger generations in most industrialised countries. In this paper, this is illustrated for the cases of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, the UK and the USA. Nevertheless, there are remarkable differences across countries regarding both the level of implicit taxes and their development over successive age cohorts, which can be attributed to differences in ageing processes and in the institutional features of national pension systems. In addition, we can demonstrate how effective different approaches to pension reform are in smoothing the intergenerational profile of implicit tax rates.     

Aging and Retirement: Evidence Across Countries

How do demographic factors influence retirement? Using a large cross-country data set, I show that in countries with a larger share of elderly in their population the length of retirement is longer. This result holds true if I control for wealth effects, and when the effective labor force participation rate of the elderly is used instead of the official retirement age. Retirement policies and the social security size are strictly related: a new variable, representing the aggregate relevance of retirement policies, turns out to be significant in explaining the size of social security. Finally, the total amount of social security transfers is positively related with the increase of the elderly population, while in per capita terms this relation is not significant.     

The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement

Early retirement seems to plague social security systems in a number of European countries. In this paper we argue that delaying retirement may have two positive effects: it is likely to partially restore the financial balance of the system, and it may foster redistribution among retirees. To obtain such a double dividend, the benefit rule of the initial social security scheme must have the following two characteristics. First, it operates redistribution within generations. Second, it is biased and induces early retirement.     

Social security in the UK under New Labour: what did the Third Way mean for welfare reform?

In 1997, the Labour Party was elected in the UK with few explicitly articulated ideas about social security reforms. This paper reviews the large number of subsequent reforms to social security, and argues that some consistent themes have emerged. A commitment to keep to the tight spending plans of the previous, Conservative, administration left little scope for increases in benefit spending during the first two years in office. Since that time, increases in the generosity of some social security programmes have been directed towards achieving certain goals. An emphasis on encouraging paid work has been a consistent theme, whilst aims of reducing poverty rates for children and pensioners have been emphasised since 1999. Spending to achieve these goals has often been directed through means‐tested programmes, and there has been a related weakening of the link between paid National Insurance contributions and benefit entitlements. It remains to be seen whether reforms to the process of income assessment will increase take‐up.     

A Comment on the Place of Funded Pensions in Transition Economies

Arguments are presented in the case of Eastern European transitioncountries for combining the restructuring of insolvent pay-as-you-goretirement systems with the introduction of mandatory, private,funded pensions. They involve the reduction of dead-weight loss,the return to formal activity of gray markets, and the developmentof capital markets. With the proper financing, such policiescan also increase national savings. Lack of public knowledgeabout financial instruments for saving argues for making participationin the private funds mandatory. A combination of a reformed pay-as-you-gosystem with private, mandatory funds balances concern for politicalrisk and real wage variability with concern for the variabilityof real financial returns.Animportant caveat is in order. Implementing such a policy requiresa capacity for effective enforcement of prudencial regulationsand a commitment to macroeconomic stability. If these are notpresent, reform should be limited to restoring balance to thepay-as-you-go system.     

Zero‐Rating versus Cash Transfers under the VAT

To reduce the tax burden on the poor, nearly every VAT system allows for special treatment of certain goods or services. Zero‐rating the supply of certain foodstuffs is a prominent example of this practice. Using data on South Africa, this paper considers whether taxing foodstuffs alongside compensating cash transfers may be preferred to zero‐rating foodstuffs in a developing country context. The results show that cash transfers may be preferred if all the additional revenue from eliminating the zero rate can be earmarked and government is perfectly efficient. In the likely absence of earmarking and perfect efficiency, developing countries may need to apply special treatment to some foodstuffs to protect the poor. If this is the case, it is proposed that zero‐rating can be preferred to the exemption of certain foodstuffs.     

Financing Retirement in the European Union

This paper explores how EU countries can address various challenges (including the aging of the population) affecting their systems of old-age income support. It presents two scenarios illustrating the most important uncertainties surrounding the major developments that affect the pension systems of the EU. To diversify these risks, EU governments should act on several fronts. In addition to the formation of human capital (especially that of children), employment (especially that of older workers) should be boosted. This calls for social insurance reform with more emphasis on individual saving schemes. Pension schemes should be more explicit about how they share demographic and other risks. Countries that currently rely heavily on public pay-as-you-go (PAYG) schemes should stimulate private pensions by gradually reducing PAYG benefits collected by high-income earners, by issuing new financial instruments, and by conducting intergenerational risk sharing through the tax system.     

Inequality and two decades of British tax and benefit reforms

Microsimulation methods are used to identify the contribution of tax and benefit reforms to the significant growth in UK income inequality since 1979. The total effect turns out to depend crucially on the counterfactual against which the reforms are assessed: compared with the alternative of pure price‐indexation, the total effect of reform is small; by contrast, compared with a counterfactual in which benefits rose in line with national income (historically the case before 1979), the effect is substantial – approximately half the total rise in income inequality is explained. The impact of reforms on inequality has varied significantly over time: income tax cuts in the late 1970s and late 1980s increased inequality; direct tax rises in the early 1980s and 1990s, together with increases in means‐tested benefits in the late 1990s, reduced it. The robustness of the results to sampling variation and to the measure of inequality used is also investigated.     

Impacts of Immigration on an Ageing Welfare State: An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France

Immigration is often seen as an instrument of adaptation for ageing countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the ageing population in France. Four alternative scenarios, compared with a baseline scenario based on official projections, are simulated with the aim of quantifying the effects of immigration on French social protection finances. We show that the age and, to a lesser extent, the skill structure of immigrants are the key features that mainly determine the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effects are all the more positive in the short to medium term if the migration policy is selective (in favour of more skilled workers). In the long term, the beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But whatever the degree of selectivity of the migration policy, the financial gains from higher consequent migration flows are relatively moderate compared with the demographic changes implied by ageing.     

Income Shifting in the Spanish Dual Income Tax*

Based on a model of behavioural response to taxes, and using the Taxpayers Panel from the Instituto de Estudios Fiscales for the period 1999–2009, we analyse whether the dual nature of the Spanish personal income tax (PIT), reinforced by the 2007 reform, has influenced taxpayers’ behaviour, causing them to convert part of their ‘general income’ (from labour, real estate or economic activities) into ‘savings income’ (from movable capital or capital gains). We also extend the analysis of income shifting and study whether Spanish taxpayers also responded to the different tax treatments given to the two types of savings income (from movable capital and capital gains) until 2007, transforming savings income from one type to the other. The results of our study demonstrate three facts. First, Spanish taxpayers did respond to the different tax rates, shifting income from the general base to different forms of savings, especially capital gains. The highest‐income individuals and the self‐employed and business owners are the groups where this behaviour was most marked. Second, the self‐employed and business owners also turned income from movable assets into capital gains, guided by their different tax rates. And third, we find signs of ‘anticipation’ and ‘learning’ effects caused by the 2007 tax reform. We believe that the results obtained will enrich the growing literature on income shifting.