Would Indian farmers benefit from liberalization of world cotton and sugar markets?

Rich-country support programs for cotton and sugar producers are frequently claimed to be detrimental for developing-country farmers. This study investigates whether a reduction in protectionist policies for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cotton and sugar producers would have a measurable effect on the welfare of Indian farmers. The fact that these sectors are intensively regulated within India might suggest that any such effect will be small. However, this study shows econometrically that prices in Indian rural markets closely follow world prices, and that Indian farmers are flexible in the medium to long run in changing production according to price signals from these markets. Depending on the crop and the nature of liberalization, producer surplus increases from 4.2% to 22.3% in the long run.     

A portfolio analysis of incentive programmes for conservation,restoration and timber plantations in Southern Ecuador

This paper uses portfolio analysis to study how the Ecuadorian incentive programme for forest conservation and restoration (Socio Bosque), and an incentive programme for timber plantations, may reduce income risk and/or maximise returns for a given level of risk for farmers in the municipality of Loja. The main existing land use in the research area is milk production on pasture, with some farmers having forest land. Our results suggest that most farmers would significantly increase the area under conservation and/or restoration as part of their risk reduction strategies, compared to a decision based solely on expected returns. However, in land use allocations that maximise the return per unit of risk, a small group of milk producers without forest would continue milk production on most of their land. In addition, milk producers with forest would significantly decrease deforestation under the land use allocations made when conservation incentives are available. Against this we also identify a likely shift of milk production from existing pasture to new pasture established on deforested land, which provides evidence of a potential ‘leakage effect’. In addition, the incentive programmes would only lead to small areas of tree plantations being established. None of the land use combinations (portfolios) analysed would increase the income of all households to above the poverty line, as the monetary incentives are too low and many farms are too small. For forest holders all the land use combinations we studied would have a positive impact on income, but we observed a negative impact on household income for milk producers without forest. For producers without any forest, there seems to be a trade-off between maximising household income and risk reduction through combining incentives for restoration and tree plantations.     

National agricultural commodity research priorities for Pakistan

A future agricultural research agenda for Pakistan and its provinces was developed as part of the national master agricultural research plan (NMARP) under the Government of Pakistan, World Bank agricultural research project II (ARP-II). The current research agenda mainly keeps pace with maintenance research and little contribution is being made to increase the productivity above maintenance levels for most crop and livestock commodities. Thus, the present Pakistan agricultural research system cannot contribute in any substantial or efficient way to the narrowing of Pakistan's projected food deficit anticipated in the next 15 years. A major thrust of the ARP-II project was identifying a new research agenda with agricultural research priority setting as the basis. An ex ante economic surplus priority setting analysis at the national level was undertaken for selected agricultural commodities as part of the priority setting process. Three eparate research funding scenarios were analyzed: (1) Scenario I: an ex ante analysis using the present research commodity funding levels and present research management level for each year over the next five years, (2) Scenario II: an ex ante analysis using double the present funding level for each year over the next 5 years with a higher research management level than at present, and (3) Scenario III; an ex ante analysis at an ‘optimally’ funded level with a higher research management level. An efficiency index (NPV divided by the present value of research expenditure) was used for the priority ranking of commodities. A framework for using the information generated by the ex ante economic surplus method is presented. The results of the analysis proved to be useful as baseline information for researchers and research managers to assess the overall budget commitment required for agricultural research in Pakistan and for identifying an overall research strategy at the national level.     

Generic advertising without supply control: implications of funding mechanisms for advertising intensities in competitive industries

Producer profit-maximising rules for generic commodity advertising programs and associated funding levies are derived. Lump-sum, per unit and ad valorem levies, and government subsidy funding arrangements are compared and contrasted. The initial single-product competitive market model is extended to incorporate international trade, government price policies, and multiple commodity interactions.     

Impact of Risk on HYV Adoption in Bangladesh

The objectives of this paper are to develop a measure of risk aversion based on the safety-first principle. The risk coefficient for a large number of farmers was positive indicating the tendency towards gambling in Bangladesh agriculture. Farmers who were near subsistence income (disaster level of income) tended to choose riskier crops such as HYV rice. The risk-aversion variable was highly correlated with demographic and socioeconomic variables. Large holders of land tended to be relatively more risk-averse than small holders of land and area allocated to HYV proportionally declined with increases in holding size. A three-equation model on HYV adoption decisions, fertilizer and hired labour was estimated with a risk-aversion variable based on the safety-first principle, and expected and significant signs were obtained with the risk-aversion variable in HYV and hired labour equations.     

Hedging Opportunities for Canadian

The unprecedented commodity price volatility in the last decade has resulted in a growing interest in futures trading by farmers. One of the major reasons often provided for the usefulness of commodity futures markets is that they provide a mechanism whereby producers can shift the risk of price change onto others. Interestingly, little research has been conducted on the effectiveness of the WCE as a hedging tool for farmers.
The objective of this paper was to investigate the extent to which the futures contracts for rapeseed, barley and flaxseed can be used by farmers in order to reduce price risk (measured by volatility). Drawing on earlier literature, the theory of hedging was reviewed and formulae for estimating the optimal hedge and the effectiveness of hedging were presented. An empirical analysis determined that the Winnipeg rapeseed, barley and flaxseed futures contracts are very useful in terms of allowing a producer the opportunity to reduce exposure to price risk.     

Commodity futures markets: a survey

This review article describes the main contributions in the literature on commodity futures markets. It is argued that modern studies have focused primarily on technical questions, with insufficient economic content. More research needs to be directed towards understanding fundamental economic issues such as why so few farmers hedge, the impacts of government farm programs on commodity futures, and the market impacts of commodity pools. The literature has failed to explain the prevalence of inverted markets in grains and oilseeds, and there is unexplainable price volatility in markets such as hogs and orange juice.     

Abstracts of Award-Winning Theses

Costa Rica has long been a leader among developing countries in the design of and experimentation with innovative environmental programs. Since 1997, Costa Rica's "Pagos de Servicios Ambientales" (Payments for Environmental Services) Program has provided payments to more than 4,400 farmers and forest owners for reforestation, forest conservation, and sustainable forest management activities. The econometric analysis of a survey of farmers and forest owners, including both PSA participants and nonparticipants, shows that farm size, human capital and household economic factors, and information variables significantly influence participation in PSA program alternatives. Large farmers and forest owners are disproportionately represented among program participants.     

Evaluating the use of an environmental assurance program to address pollution from United States cropland

Voluntary market-based programs have been proposed as cost-effective means to reduce environmental impacts associated with agriculture. This study examines a relatively new program in Michigan USA, the Michigan Agriculture Environmental Assurance Program (MAEAP), and explores how it might serve to reduce nutrient pollution associated with intensive corn production. Interviews with corn farmers were used to explore reasons for program participation, the extent of management changes, and opinions regarding program effectiveness. Results indicate that most farmers enrolled in the program had already satisfied the majority of the requirements, therefore few changes were made that would result in environmental improvements. Interviews also revealed that in almost all cases, corn farmers were unable to market their products as MAEAP verified. Participation was largely driven by goals to avoid law enforcement and minor financial benefits through insurance discounts. Farmers indicated that a lack of monitoring and enforcement reduced the perceived effectiveness of the program. Most farmers favored direct payments through government conservation programs over MAEAP. This case illustrates the limitations of voluntary and market-based programs to address agri-environmental problems and supports the use of multiple policy approaches.     

Setting Efficient Incentives for Agricultural Research: Lessons from Principal-Agent Theory

A conceptual analysis of important issues in the organization and management of academic research is presented. Principal-agent theory is applied to derive optimal compensation schemes for scientists when they differ in ability, risk aversion, cost of effort, and reservation utility, and to show the optimal trade-off between institutional risk and scientists' abilities. Implications for an efficient organization of research are derived, including how scientists' incentives should be structured to elicit optimal research efforts and direction, whether research direction should be centralized or decentralized, and whether the organization of research should be through external competitive grants or program and institutional funding.     

Farm Poverty and Safety Nets

Farm families with incomes below the poverty line are far less likely than wealthier farmers to receive farm support payments. Using data from the 1989–2004 Current Population Survey, we find that poor farm families are also not participating in other assistance programs. Controlling for other factors, eligible farm families have substantially lower participation rates in the Food Stamp Program and in Medicaid than eligible nonfarm families. Removing farm safety net program payments would increase the number of farmers eligible for these programs but, in the absence of behavioral changes, would only lead to small increases in the number of recipients.     

The zip (postal) code difference: methods to improve identification of rural subgroups

Over the past decade national policymakers have grappled with the increasingly difficult issue of implementing programs which sustain the viability of the rural health care system. The set of problems that are of major concern to these decisionmakers include: (1) the shifts in the utilization patterns away from the rural health care delivery system; (2) the impact of modification in the health care reimbursement system which disproportionately favors urban health systems; and, (3) the continuing difficulty in affecting the disproportionate supply of health providers in urban areas compared to rural settings. The complex nature of health services research demands a multidisciplinary approach especially on sociocultural problems such as rural health delivery. Effective analysis in health care crosses many disciplinary boundaries such as medicine, nutrition, economics, sociology, and public health among others disciplines. A major concern to many of these rural health research analysts is the ad hoc treatment of the rural populace in federal and state health policy decisionmaking. The key to understanding the variance in treatment of rural health can be appreciated by reviewing the accuracy of rural definitions. In the present study, a refined rural definition is proposed which will assist research analysts in providing greater information on the distribution of rural health care services. A preliminary analysis of the proposed definitions indicates that a more precise measurement of rural provides greater accuracy in determining the medical needs of rural areas. Adaptation of the concept will benefit the decisionmaking process through improvements in the methodological approach to rural health research. State legislators, regional and state planning agencies, federal funding agencies, foundations, and other programs involved in support of rural life program will be better able to assess the impact of programs through use of the new definition. Finally, a refined typology for rural will also effect other research endeavors and appears to be generalizable to research on other pertinent rural delivery issues such as transportation, education, and regional planning.     

Is there a future for small farms in developed countries? Evidence from the French case

This research aims to identify the specific characteristics of small farms in developed countries and the factors that influence their survival and growth. Using the case of France, we employ statistical and econometric analysis of data from the Farm Structure Survey (N = 70,000) for the period 2000–2007. The principal findings suggest that small farms are no more likely than other farms to employ “alternative” strategies to the predominant model of increasing farm size, nor are they more likely to diversify on‐farm activities or operate under quality‐labeled production systems, with the notable exception of organic agriculture. However, where small farms do adopt or practice these activities, they are seen to have a favorable effect in ensuring their survival and growth. In contrast, we are unable to conclude that pluriactivity of farm households has a positive impact on the survival of small enterprises. The effect of geographical location on small farms is largely expressed in their concentration in mountainous or disadvantaged regions. Overall, the trajectory of small farms is marked by farm exit, principally as the result of farmers retiring at the end of their careers. The small farm sector is also revitalized by both larger farms declining and thus being reclassified as small farms, as well as the progressive entry into agriculture of small farm holders whose income was previously derived largely off‐farm.     

Are preserved farms actively engaged in agriculture and conservation?

This study addresses the question of whether farms enrolled in land preservation programs are actively engaged in agricultural or conservation activities. Data are drawn from an original survey administered to preserved farm owners in the states of New Jersey, Maryland, and Delaware in 2011. “Actively engaged” is defined as investment in conservation projects, buildings, equipment, or irrigation since the land was preserved. Affirmative answers to the survey's investment questions range from a low of 19% for irrigation to a high of 69% for equipment. Special attention was paid to differences between lifestyle farmers and small and large commercial farmers, which are classified using the USDA typology developed in 2000. Regression analysis estimates differences in investment behavior across these groups as well as farm tenure categories, controlling for farm size, program/state location, and demographic variables. Only owners who employ tenants or managers exclusively on their land were found to invest significantly less than the largest professional farmers, and they did so across all four types of investment.This study's findings support preservation goals articulated by legislators and program administrators, because (1) agricultural and land stewardship investments appear to be widespread on preserved farms, partly due to administrators’ preference for larger parcels, (2) there is no evidence that “hobby farmers” are disproportionately attracted to farmland preservation programs – in fact the opposite seems to be true – while those that exist in our sample behave similarly to the largest commercial farmers, (3) although tenant farming is associated in the sample with lower rates of investment, it is less common on preserved farms than on all farms in the three study states. The matter of land tenure, highlighted in this as in other studies, has not yet become a primary focus of either farm-behavioral research or state agricultural policy.     

A REVIEW OF THREE RESEARCH PROGRAMS IN QUANTITATIVE MODELLING IN THE BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS*

Elements of three of the BAE's research programs in economic modelling of the rural sector, namely, the modelling of agricultural production systems, rural commodity markets and agriculture within a general equilibrium framework, are reviewed with emphasis on the use of such models in policy work. Suggestions are made for further modelling in these areas.     

The Influence of Commodity Programs on Acreage Response to Market Price: With an Illustration Concerning Rice Policy in the United States

Farm programs influence the parameters of typically estimated supply functions. We develop and apply an approach that uses detailed information about farm program incentives and constraints to identify underlying structural acreage response parameters when the data reflect behavior under complex government commodity programs. We illustrate the approach with data on rice acreage response to market price in the United States. For U.S. rice, estimates that fail to appropriately incorporate the program rules under which market data were generated are three to four times smaller than the structural parameters that are useful for most policy analysis or projections under alternative policies.     

Do crop purchase programs improve smallholder welfare? The case of Zambia's Food Reserve Agency

Government and parastatal crop purchase programs have regained popularity in sub-Saharan Africa, with many citing improving smallholder farmers’ welfare as a key goal. Yet there is limited empirical evidence on the topic. This paper analyzes the effects of the Zambian Food Reserve Agency's (FRA's) maize purchase activities on smallholder welfare. The FRA buys maize at a pan-territorial price that often exceeds market prices in surplus production areas. Using two household panel survey datasets spanning 15 years and exploiting variation in the scale of FRA activities over time, we employ fixed effects and control function approaches to estimate the effects of a smallholder household's maize sales to the FRA on its welfare, as well as the effects of more intense FRA maize purchase activity in a given district on the welfare of smallholder households in the district. Results suggest positive direct welfare effects on the minority of smallholders that sell to the FRA. We also find that, in the early years of the program, more intense FRA maize purchase activity in a district was associated with reductions in smallholder welfare, particularly among maize autarkic and net buying households. In later years, we find no evidence of such negative effects and some evidence of positive district-level effects on maize net buyers.     

Use of composite forest commodity price indices for cointegration analysis

Time series data on forest product prices used in research is frequently the product of temporal, spatial as well as product aggregation. This paper analyzes the implications of the use of composite commodity price indices in cointegration analysis and tests the validity of the assumptions underlying it. It tests for the presence of a common stochastic trend in disaggregated softwood lumber product price series in multiple US markets, a validity condition supported by the Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem (Lewbel, 1996. Aggregation without separability: a generalized composite commodity theorem. The American Economic Review 86(3), 524–543.). The presence of a common stochastic trend in softwood lumber product price series tested is consistently rejected by Johansen's (1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12(2–3), 231–254.) multivariate cointegration analysis. Together with rejection of non-stationarity property for a significantly large number of price series tested, the results highlight the significance of the assumptions underlying the use of composite forest commodity price indices for cointegration analysis.     

An Analysis of the Key Factors Influencing Farmer’s Choice of Crop,Kibamba Ward,Tanzania

The need for further research into indigenous knowledge, in the context of agrarian development strategies, led to this investigation of one aspect of local knowedge; that of crop choice. Through the use of point score analysis, research was conducted in the Kibamba Ward located in the peri‐urban zone of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The main aims were to investigate the key factors underlying farmers’ choice of crop as well as to assess the differences in the decision‐making process between commercial and subsistence farmers. Vegetable cultivation was observed as the main practice, influenced particularly by the physical environment, the availability of machinery as well as certain economic factors. A significant difference in decision making among subsistence and commercial farmers was found. Subsistence farmers placed greater emphasis on the taste of the crop, whereas commercial farmers were predictably more influenced by the market. In addition, this study highlights several practical areas of concern regarding water resources, basic machinery and the lack of formal extension provision in the area. Although the complexity of crop choice is portrayed, a need for future research in different geographical contexts is noted.     

Farmers’ intrinsic motivations,barriers to the adoption of conservation practices and effectiveness of policy instruments: Empirical evidence from northern Australia

The rate and extent of adoption of conservation practices by farmers is influenced, in principle, by characteristics of the practices and those of the farmers. Governments use policy instruments to increase the rate of adoption of practices which generate public benefits if it is deemed that privately optimal adoption rates will not lead to publicly optimal conservation outcomes. Recent nation-wide conservation programs in Australia have attracted criticism for low levels of effectiveness and efficiency. Could it be that program design has ignored key adoption factors, in particular characteristics of the target audience? If adoption is subject to personal factors, such as the motivations for farming, then it is likely that so are farmers’ responses to policy approaches and instruments. In this case study, surveys were conducted of farmers in three regions within the tropical savannas of northern Australia, where land-use systems are characterized by large-scale broad-acre beef grazing enterprises. Inter alia, these surveys collected data on graziers’ motivations, impediments to adoption of conservation practices, and perceived effectiveness of policy instruments in overcoming impediments. The research found that graziers had a very high level of conservation and lifestyle motivation and were motivated to lesser extents by financial/economic and social considerations, pointing to a strong stewardship ethic of graziers, or altruistic motif. Motivational profiles were significantly correlated with farmers’ perceptions about what constrained them from implementing conservation based management systems. Motivational profiles also explained differences in farmers’ perceptions of and stated propensity to interact with policy instruments, particularly at a regional scale and in the context of historical government interventions. On the basis of the empirical evidence presented, governments would be well advised to harness the diverse set of aspirations and motivations of farmers when designing conservation programs rather than. In particular, conservation programs need to take advantage of farmers’ stewardship ethic for maximum effectiveness and efficiency, and minimize the risk of crowding out intrinsic motivation and altruistic behaviours.